The Nominees: Album Of The Year
Beyoncé's famously been snubbed for this award thrice already, on occasions that inspired a Kanye Twitter rant in 2015 and a tearful apology from the winner Adele in 2017. Will Queen B finally wear the crown this time around?
Just 5 days remain until the Grammys ceremony, and the last general category up in our pre-Grammys preview is also the biggest award of the night: Album of the Year! If you missed it, below are the three other major awards we've already previewed:
As has been discussed on this blog many a time, this is the closest equivalent to a Best Picture for the Grammys. Album of the Year recognizes a full catalog of musicianship, and historically, this is the one category the Grammys have actually done a fairly good job of nominating the best in addition to the biggest. That being said, that has not always (or even often) translated to the best body of work actually winning the prize. Case in point: in alternating years, Kendrick Lamar and Beyoncé lost the award despite having the biggest AND best albums of their respective eligibility periods. The winners haven't provided much clarity either: where Kacey Musgraves' victory in 2019 for Golden Hour might have signified a change in the tide in that regard, Billie Eilish's clean sweep of the major awards the next year, including a win in this category for When We All Fall Asleep, Where Do We Go? was a reversion to "biggest name wins," a trend that continued with Taylor Swift's victory in 2021. Then, last year, all theories, trends and prognosticators were thrown aside when the award stunningly went to Jon Batiste for his record We Are. So, in other words, who really knows?
The Album of the Year race this year is unlike the several that preceded it. We've had open races before, to be sure, but more often than not, we get a pretty clearly defined two-horse race. Furthermore, said race is often a battle between the critical favorite vs. the commercial favorite: Kendrick Lamar's DAMN. vs. Bruno Mars' 24K Magic, or the former's To Pimp A Butterfly vs. Taylor Swift's 1989, or Beyoncé's Lemonade vs. Adele's 25.
This year's Album of the Year race genuinely feels wide open, in large part because of how many big names are up for the big awards. But it's not just the quantity of star power; it's the fact that there isn't a traditional frontrunner. By far the biggest mainstream pop stars nominated here are Adele-- who always wins Grammys but whose most recent album made nowhere near as much an impact as her last couple winners did --and Harry Styles, whose music was everywhere this past year, but never wins Grammys. Many expect, then, that this may be the year the Recording Academy finally awards Kendrick Lamar or Beyoncé for the first time. But, given that both artists' albums (and their nominated singles) were so non-traditional, so much less of a mainstream smash than any of their previously nominated-- and snubbed --work, that's far from a guarantee. Others expect the Academy will just split the difference and give it to beloved oldheads (a la last year with Jon Batiste), like Brandi Carlile and/or ABBA. But something that gets overlooked in the Jon Batiste upset was that he beat out a pretty young, unproven crowd (apart from Billie Eilish, who has already won every Grammy under the sun); can those artists really beat out a field with the likes of Adele, Beyoncé, Harry Styles, Lizzo, or Bad Bunny? In 2023?
In my preview of the contenders for this award last fall, I did highlight all but two of the eventual nominees as possible names you'd hear called, but in reality, only half of the 10 albums I thought would make it in as nominees actually did so. Furthermore, if the last couple years has taught us anything, it's to expect the unexpected. So, let those guessing games begin!
In order from worst to best odds, according to GoldDerby.com:
Music of the Spheres - Coldplay
Odds: 20-1
Peak Chart Position (Billboard): 4th
Metacritic rating: 55/100
Strongest Song: "Coloratura"
Weakest Song: "Let Somebody Go"
Daniel's Overall Rating: 4/10
Coldplay's nomination for this very award two years ago was extremely surprising, given how little mainstream attention had been paid to their 2019 album Everyday Life, but I shouted at all the haters and detractors that it was a worthy nominee, a sneaky "best in a while" performance from the veteran band. This nomination is every bit as shocking, as Music of the Spheres was barely any more visible than its predecessor, and this time, you will hear no such counter-protests from me to the complaints that have come thick and fast. Because, though it pains me to say it, this album is just bad. Coldplay has long been a favorite of mine, and even as they overstayed their welcome in the public eye, I continued to defend them and quietly even enjoy them. With this album, I have no defense; at its best, such as with the experimental, 10-minute closing track, it's "not bad!" At its worst, such as with the vapid stadium hits "My Universe" (with BTS) and "Higher Power," or the awfully-mixed cloying collaboration with Selena Gomez "Let Somebody Go," it epitomizes everything that people hated about the lads over the last 10 or 15 years. It won't win, fortunately, as a victory would put me in the uncomfortable position of either joining the mob against a longtime favorite, or defending an album I really didn't like.
Good Morning Gorgeous - Mary J. Blige
Odds: 20-1
Peak Chart Position (Billboard): 14th
Metacritic rating: 75/100
Strongest Song: "Need Love (feat. Usher)"
Weakest Song: "Amazing (feat. DJ Khaled)"
Daniel's Overall Rating: 7/10
Mary J. Blige, like Coldplay, is another surprise Album of the Year nominee that probably made people double-check their calendars to make sure it was in fact 2023, and not 2003. Blige is a legend, no doubt, and having played a part in last year's incredible Super Bowl halftime show, it's not like she was totally off the radar in 2022. Still, with an album that had only one single that garnered much attention (the title track, also nominated for Record of the Year), and mixed reviews from critics, this is an odd time to see her among the nominees for top honors. Good Morning Gorgeous is a solid album, though, if unremarkable, and I have to imagine there's a high amount of goodwill for the R&B icon. Could she really beat out such stiff competition? Likely her only hope is that all the big names split votes amongst the Academy, and she emerges as a universally-respected industry veteran. Hey, come to think of it, that sounds a lot like last year's winner.... hmmmm....
Voyage - ABBA
Odds: 16-1
Peak Chart Position (Billboard): 2nd
Metacritic rating: 72/100
Strongest Song: "Don't Shut Me Down"
Weakest Song: "I Can Be That Woman"
Daniel's Overall Rating: 7.5/10
Continuing the theme of "longtime fan favorites earning a surprise nomination in 2023," but throwing it waaaaayy further back, we have ABBA! Yes, ABBA, the kings and queens of late 70s disco-pop! At least with them, there were signs this might be coming, due to their surprise Record of the Year nomination last year. They repeated that nomination this year, with infectious single "Don't Shut Me Down," and now also shave scored their first-ever Album of the Year nom to accompany it. Voyage is the kind of album that may not have made too many waves in the group's heyday, but after a 40-year hiatus, plays like a sweet balm, a healthy blend of heartfelt ballads and old-school discofunk. Still, just like with Mary J. Blige, you have to imagine this is a nomination borne out of nostalgia than much else, and it's difficult to see a scenario in which they come away with the Grammy here, unless the power of nostalgia really is that strong.
Special- Lizzo
Odds: 16-1
Peak Chart Position (Billboard): 2nd
Metacritic rating: 78/100
Strongest Song: "About Damn Time"
Weakest Song: "I Love You Bitch"
Daniel's Overall Rating: 8/10
I know Lizzo put in a lot of time grinding and building her music career from the underground circuit, but for only really breaking through as a solo artist in the last few years, she has a pretty incredible track record. Two albums, two years nominations for Song, Record, and Album of the Year. In 2020, she lost all 3 to the juggernaut that was Billie Eilish, and she faces steep competition this year again; there is no one artist as zeitgeist-y as Eilish was in 2019, but for Lizzo to beat out the sheer number of eye-popping names would be impressive indeed. Ironically, while this would be the highest honor of all, it's the major award she probably has the worst chance at winning. Lead single "About Damn Time" was uber-viral, and fittingly is a strong contender for both Song and Record of the Year, but that's about the only track from the album that made any noise, and Special as a whole got considerably less critical love than Cuz I Love You did. It is a solid pop album, one of the records I enjoyed the most this last year, but nothing about it exactly screams "Album of the Year" to me.
Un Verano Sin Ti - Bad Bunny
Odds: 14-1
Peak Chart Position (Billboard): 1st
Metacritic rating: 85/100
Strongest Song: "Ojitos Lindos"
Weakest Song: "Un Coco"
Daniel's Overall Rating: 8.5/10
If Bad Bunny is a surprise nominee, which to many he was, it's only because the Grammys have historically been terrible at recognizing artists like him. It's not down to name recognition, because the Puerto Rican singer and rapper is quite literally one of the most popular artists in the world. Un Verano Sin Ti only grew Bunny's already-large global fanbase, and smashed records, becoming the first exclusively Spanish-language album to top the Billboard 200, and first to earn an Album of the Year nod. With a runtime of nearly an hour and a half, it's a bit overstuffed, sure, but there aren't any notable weak parts, and plenty of highs. There's a reason this album popped up on year-end lists everywhere, including my own. Bad Bunny is likely this far back in the odds race just because Un Verano Sin Ti would be such an abnormal Album of the Year winner. And yet, in a crowded race with plenty of Pop, R&B and Hip-Hop to go around, that abnormality might just carve out a lane for him to spring an upset win.
Mr. Morale and the Big Steppers - Kendrick Lamar
Odds: 14-1
Peak Chart Position (Billboard): 1st
Metacritic rating: 85/100
Strongest Song: "Father Time (feat. Sampha)"
Weakest Song: "Crown"
Daniel's Overall Rating: 9.5/10
Nobody could be surprised that Kendrick Lamar was among the ten nominees announced for Album of the Year. After all, Rap's popularity is at an all-time high, the Compton rapper is widely considered the best in the game today, and each of his previous three solo albums earned a nomination for this ward, as did his collaboration album for the Black Panther album in 2019. None of those four nominations earned him this trophy, however, and what would be a surprise is if this album were the one to see Kendrick across the finish line. Mr. Morale doesn't reach the critical and poetic heights that To Pimp A Butterfly did, nor does it possess as much replay value as good kid, m.A.A.d city or DAMN. do, and all three of those albums also faced arguably much less competition than this one will. Still, though, if a Kendrick surprise is in order, it could not be a more deserved victory. Let alone the fact that the man should have at least 2, probably 3 Album of the year wins by now, Mr. Morale and the Big Steppers is just an incredible record. The production, as always, is immaculate, and though there may not be as many commercial hits, it’s his most fully realized, consistent album yet, and a work of art so vulnerable that to critique it almost feels like criticizing the man more than the artist.
In These Silent Days - Brandi Carlile
Odds: 13-1
Peak Chart Position (Billboard): 11th
Metacritic rating: 87/100
Strongest Song: "When You're Wrong"
Weakest Song: "Letter to the Past"
Daniel's Overall Rating: 8/10
Brandi Carlile is also a nominee for Record of the Year this year with "You and me on the Rock," and as I mentioned in the preview for that award, the folk-rocker has seen quite a Grammy renaissance a decade-plus into her career, with 23 nominations in the last 4 years. Just as its predecessor By The Way, I Forgive You did, her late 2021 landed her THE nomination everyone craves. Where 2019 was a surprise, and unsurprisingly she did not win that year, her Grammy credentials are so locked-in at this point that even though In These Silent Days probably made less of an impact (and for my money, is good but not quite as good as her last), it's a more genuine contender. Surprised by how highly the oddsmakers consider Brandi's chances? Don't be. She clearly has admirers in the Academy, and a combination of having one of the best-reviewed albums in the mix + occupying a lane is the sole Americana candidate gives her a legitimate shot at the award.
Harry's House - Harry Styles
Odds: 13-1
Peak Chart Position (Billboard): 1st
Metacritic rating: 83/100
Strongest Song: "Daydreaming"
Weakest Song: "Little Freak"
Daniel's Overall Rating: 8.5/10
He's been one of the biggest pop stars on the planet for several years now, but for whatever reason, Harry Styles has only just gotten some Grammy love this year. That's not totally fair, he did win his first award two years ago for "Watermelon Sugar," but it was one of just three nominations he's received in his entire career, both as part of One Direction and as a solo artist, and he had never been nominated for a major award until this year. Fortunately for Harry, it was near-impossible for the Recording Academy to ignore him this time around. Harry's House was easily the biggest pop smash of the eligibility year (Taylor Swift's Midnights surpassed most of its benchmarks, but as it was a late Fall release, won't be up for any Grammys until next year), and lead single "As It Was" one of the hottest songs of 2022. Just as that track will be a formidable contender for both Song and Record of the Year, so too will his album in his first-ever Album of the Year race. With good reason: Harry's House won't win the patricians' vote, but it's hard to label it anything but a rousing success. Its sound isn't revolutionary, but is more interesting, thoughtful and creative than the majority of Pop music today. If we're headed for a "Billie Eilish, Bruno Mars"-type year rather than a "Jon Batiste, Beck"-type one, then this is a clear contender.
30 - Adele
Odds: 11-1
Peak Chart Position (Billboard): 1st
Metacritic rating: 88/100
Strongest Song: "My Little Love"
Weakest Song: "Can I Get It"
Daniel's Overall Rating: 8/10
Ahhhh, yes. Adele. Are we surprised? Of course not. I crowed about Lizzo's, Kendrick Lamar's, and Brandi Carlile's remarkable Grammy success within a short discography and/or compressed period of time, but Adele's Grammy prowess dwarfs all of them. It feels like the British songstress has been in the public consciousness all our lives, but in reality this is just her fourth studio album, and the last two won her a clean sweep of Song, Record, and Album of the Year. Guess who's nominated for the big three yet again? Just as was the case with lead single "Easy On Me," her album 30 feels like much less of a sure thing this time around. It features the artist at her most mature and eloquent, as she deconstructs a failing marriage and its ramifications, and it's probably her most cohesive work yet. Yet, it lacks the tracklist full of radio-ready bangers each album before has featured, which makes me think it won't have a legacy of being beloved by her fans the way 21 and 25 is and was. But everybody still liked this record, critics still gobbled it up, and would you really bet against Adele in any Grammy race at this point?
RENAISSANCE - Beyoncé
Odds: 10-1
Peak Chart Position (Billboard): 1st
Metacritic rating: 91/100
Strongest Song: "VIRGO'S GROOVE"
Weakest Song: "THIQUE"
Daniel's Overall Rating: 9.5/10
The leader in the clubhouse for this top award, according to oddsmakers, is none other than Queen B herself. But before you start etching her name on the award, BeyHive, keep in mind that the last two times she was the odds-on favorite... this happened. And then this happened. Two seemingly clear-cut victories for Beyoncé that were snatched away in such egregious upsets they led to apologies from the winners, and faux-but-then-not-actually faux outrage from her musical peers. So you'll forgive the most ardent of fans if they can't believe the Grammys are going to properly recognize Beyoncé until they actually see it. That skepticism might be further compounded this year by two things: one, the extensive, HIGHLY competitive field of quality nominees, and two, just how much of a radical departure RENAISSANCE is from her prior discography, and from mainstream pop in general. An ode to queer and black identity, and a musical homage to house music and electronic dance, the album puts you on notice from the first beat and doesn’t let you go without first breaking a sweat on the dance floor. Boy, would it be a refreshing Album of the Year winner. And you can see why many think it has a very good shot at finally breaking Queen B through: in many ways, it checks all the various aforementioned boxes of a hotly anticipated (and commercially successful) release from a huge star, a unique album that feels like the past and future all-in-one, and an opportunity to recognize an iconic Black woman who shockingly does not have an Album of the Year Grammy.
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