Premier League Predictions, Week 16

© Micah Veldkamp, 2025

---

Welcome back to the weekly predictions, Premier League fans! I know it's been a week and a half since you last heard from me. The return of European football action-- which, I've decided, as of this week is cool and significant again --meant no double-up action this week, just a good ol' fashioned Premier League weekend.

Last week, though, the super-sized one? Largely one to forget for me, and I don't just mean because my Liverpool took a grand total of 2 points from mighty Sunderland and Leeds. I also mean because I continued my middling prediction form that's been present for the last month or so.

I got bit especially bad in the 'Week 14' games, whiffing on the Newcastle-Tottenham and Liverpool-Sunderland draws. Fortunately, Arsenal's comfortable win over Brentford (as expected) gave me something to salvage, even if their ensuing weekend loss at Aston Villa undid it. But last weekend ended up a little better, as the predictable Manchester City romp over Sunderland did in fact transpire, and my gutsy Bournemouth-Chelsea draw prediction paid off. All in all, a 4/7 week, which takes my season total to an odd 35.5/52 on the season thus far.

But, the matches are less than 12 hours from kicking off, so let's not waste any more time trying to figure out how to calculate that fraction. Here are your 5 for Week 16!

Liverpool vs. Brighton & Hove Albion

On my birthday this year, my friends were asking me "year retrospectives," and a soccer-loving friend asked me my favorite game from Liverpool's '24-'25 title-winning season. Thinking the day of the title or trophy lift would be too obvious, I answered with Liverpool's home win vs. Brighton. When this very fixture was played last season, it was in the midst of an already-impressive Liverpool run, and on a weekend in which both Arsenal and Manchester City had already lost, and after a win punctuated by a absolute pearl of a Mohamed Salah counterattack goal, my Reds took sole control of the league lead and didn't relinquish it the rest of the season. What a difference a year makes. It's such cruel irony, then, that this fixture comes in already-struggling Liverpool's first home match and first Premier League match since the fiasco that unfolded last Saturday, a twice-collapsing draw at Leeds immediately followed by an explosive Salah postmatch interview that has seen him since benched from the team and his future at Liverpool very unclear. It's worth noting that the Reds have been playing marginally better in the last couple weeks, not having lost since the Champions League fiasco vs. PSV before Thanksgiving, and on Tuesday in their first match since Salahgate, they actually notched a huge result with an impressive away win at Inter Milan in the Champions League. But I've been duped a few too many times this season to believe a turnaround is surely on, and Brighton is a team that always tests even the best Liverpool team, which this is not.

The Pick: Brighton, 2-1

Arsenal vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers

Arsenal love to make things difficult, don't they? They were the clear class of this league and the runaway leaders atop the table not all that long ago...but suddenly, they've earned just 8 points out of their last 15, suffered just their second loss of the season at Aston Villa last Saturday, and have seen that big lead shrink to just 2 points before even reaching Christmas! The good news is they're still in the position reigning champions Liverpool were at this time last season: atop both the Premier League and the Champions League table, with a perfect 6 wins from 6 so far in the latter. The even better news is that their spot isn't jeopardized this weekend, as they play host to quite possibly the worst Premier League team we have witnessed in a very long time.

The Pick: Arsenal, 4-0

West Ham United vs. Aston Villa

Their start to the season was shockingly poor, but I think it's safe to say Aston Villa is well and truly back, now that they've notched 8 consecutive wins in all competitions, including toppling league leaders Arsenal, and vaulted all the way up to 3rd place in the league. West Ham, their claret-and-blue brethren from London, on the other hand, had a shockingly poor start to the season....and haven't gotten much better. The Hammers are currently in the relegation zone, where they've been the better part of this season, and only new promotees Burnley and historically dismal Wolves have been worse than them. This is still a team with some quality players; can they turn it around at home with a big upset this weekend? It does seem like it would be classic for Villa to lose this one fresh off of toppling the league leaders, but I think the delta between the two sides' form is too great right now.

The Pick: Aston Villa, 2-1

Sunderland vs. Newcastle United

It feels right to see this fixture on our slates again. The Tyne-Wear derby between these two bitter Northern rivals is Premier League heritage, but due to Newcastle's short-lived in relegation in 2016, and Sunderland's much more longterm drop the following season, this will be the first competitive meeting between the neighboring clubs in a decade. That's not the only reason for the Stadium of Light to be rocking on Sunday morning: Sunderland have, against all odds, had the much better season of the two. Newcastle have performed decently in the Champions League, but in the Premier League, sit in the bottom half of the table, showing signs of feeling the effects of a big exodus of talent this offseason. Their rivals, on the other hand, have come back to the Premier League with a purpose, currently sitting just 3 points outside the Top 4, even after the big loss to Manchester City. Anything can happen in rivalry matches, and Newcastle have been playing better of late, but I think the Black Cats will dig deep to get back to winning ways.

The Pick: Sunderland, 3-2

Crystal Palace vs. Manchester City

Manchester City returned from the last International Break and immediately lost two on the bounce, to Newcastle and to Bayer Leverkusen in the Champions League, but everything since then has been golden. The 2021-2024 champions suddenly look like their old selves again, having won 8 of their last 10 and their last 4 in a row, including over Real Madrid at the Bernabéu on Wednesday, and have drawn within a couple points of the league lead. But here come those old spoilsports again, Crystal Palace: yes, the club that shocked City in the FA Cup Final last May has made their way back into the Top 4 after a brief dip in the form. What Oliver Glasner's doing with a team that lost so much from a team that finished 12th place last season is remarkable, and it could get even better if they're able to score a second big win over City in the calendar year. I think City is too good, and playing too well currently, for me to go all in on the Palace upset, but I do think they'll be up to the challenge enough to nick a point in front of a home crowd for the second consecutive season.

The Pick: Draw, 1-1