World Cup 2026: Group D Preview
- 4 days ago
- 6 min read
The USMNT started this decade with so much promise, but have fallen on hard times in the last year+ ahead of their major turn in the spotlight. Same goes for their star Christian Pulisic. Can player and team both regain form in time for a watershed moment this summer?
United States 🇺🇸
FIFA Rank: 16th
Qualified as: Hosts
The Skinny
It wasn’t all that long ago that all seemed sunny and bright for the USMNT. After the humiliation of missing out on the 2018 World Cup altogether, a much-needed generational change in both manager and player personnel ushered in a new era, which got off to a thrilling start in 2021 with double victories over Mexico in both the Nations League and the Gold Cup. A promising if not excellent 2022 World Cup followed, in which The Yanks drew with England in the group and reached the Round of 16, and a dominant Nations League sweep of Mexico and Canada in summer ’23 seemed to announce the arrival of this promised “golden generation.” Then came the controversial re-appointment of Gregg Berhalter as manager, the calamitous group stage exit on home soil in the 2024 Copa America, and a long string of poor results off the bat under new manager Mauricio Pochettino. Results and performance improved considerably in the friendlies the end of last year, but two comprehensive defeats at the hands of Belgium and Portugal coupled with the downturn of club form for a lot of the American stars has fans’ optimism at the lowest it’s been in the 2020s, probably, headed into this tournament that was supposed to be a watershed moment for American soccer. Can the not-so-young-anymore Yanks meet the moment, or are we doomed for a 2024 repeat?
The Best XI
The weird thing about the pessimism about this team is, you look at that projected starting XI and it’s still a pretty damn good squad. Ironically for a nation who used to specialize at the position, the biggest question mark is at goalkeeper, but NYC FC’s Matt Freese seems to be Pochettino’s preferred choice over 2022 starter Matt Turner. It’s unclear if Poch will run with his favored 5-2-3 formation, but most signs point to that, and despite the US’s defensive frailties, the personnel sets up pretty well for it. Fulham’s Antonee Robinson and PSV’s Sergiño Dest will make one of the more dangerous fullback pairings in the tournament, and the projected 3 CBs will include grizzled vet Tim Ream and Crystal Palace starry Chris Richards. Tyler Adams (Bournemouth) and Weston McKennie (Juventus) are not among the Americans in poor form this season, the latter becoming especially prolific in an attacking role for the Italian side. I expect he will be back in a more central role for the U.S., given the options of Ligue 1 standouts Tim Weah and Folarin Balogun in attack, along with of course, ‘Captain America’ himself, Christian Pulisic.
Paraguay 🇵🇾
FIFA Rank: 40th
Qualified as: 6th place in CONMEBOL
The Skinny
After qualifying for 5 straight World Cups, Paraguay went a good 16 years without it, and now mark their return to the tournament for the first time since 2010. That year was a magical one for La Albirroja, though, as they shocked everyone by topping a group that included defending champions Italy and reached the quarterfinals, where they were felled only by a late winner from eventual champions Spain. Can they repeat the magic this time? It’s a tall order, but not out of the question. Sure, they were probably among the beneficiaries of the expanded field to 48 teams, but their qualification was no fluke, as they navigated the South American gauntlet to the tune of 28 points from 18 matches, the exact same mark as Brazil, Colombia and Uruguay.
The Best XI
Paraguay’s star power, such that it exists, is all in the attack: longtime Newcastle star Miguel Almirón and young Strasbourg (and former Brighton) star Julio Enciso could flank an attacking triangle that includes the Romero twins, stars in the Argentine Primera División. Further back, both the defensive midfield and the center backs see a Brazilian/Premier League pairing: Brighton’s Diego Gómez and Grěmio’s Mathías Villasanti in the middle of the park, and a pair of Brasileiro Serie A starters alongside Sunderland’s Omar Alderete in a back 3.
Australia 🇦🇺
FIFA Rank: 27th
Qualified as: 2nd place in AFC Group C
The Skinny
Since Australia’s breakthrough in the 2006 World Cup, The Socceroos have been constants at every ensuing tournament. For the 3 Cups in the 2010s, they were hard-fighting but athletically-limited group-stage exiters, but both in that ’06 run and 4 years ago, they were surprise qualifiers for the Round of 16, only going down in an impressively scrappy battle with the eventual champions Argentina last year and Italy 20 years ago. Will this Australia side be able to match the feat of those two teams, or perhaps even go a step further? It’s not their most talented squad or generation by any stretch of the imagination. But still, a wide open group and experience across their team is sure to make them a tough out for anyone yet again.
The Best XI
Iconic captain Mathew Ryan, now with Levante, is back between the posts for the ‘Roos, and he’s not the only veteran player likely to feature in the XI. St. Pauli legend Jackson Irvine and Middlesbrough’s Riley McGree will likely start in midfield, and Hibernian’s Martin Boyle the probable starter up top. There is young talent to excite, though, in both attack (Watford’s Nestory Irankunda) and defense (Feyenoord’s Jordan Bos).
Türkiye 🇹🇷
FIFA Rank: 22nd
Qualified as: Runners-up in UEFA Group E;
defeated Romania and Kosovo in playoff
The Skinny
For a football-mad nation that finished 3rd place at the World Cup this century, and has had multiple thrilling Euro Cup runs (including just two summers ago) in that same timespan, it’s a little shocking that Türkiye is marking its first World Cup appearance in 24 years, their last showing being that thrilling Cinderella run in 2002. And they almost didn’t make it this time around, either; despite a strong qualifying performance, they had the misfortune of being in Spain’s group, which almost automatically condemned them to 2nd place and thus needing to qualify via playoff. In said playoff, they won two matches 1-0 to ultimately book their spot, but it didn’t come easy, as they had to grit out both games (and count on questionable officiating on their lone goal in the latter) against Romania and Kosovo. Still, Ay-Yıldızlılar (“The Crescent-Stars”) are here, and that’s all that matters. Plus, they’ll feel— as will everyone else — that this group is up for grabs, and with a squad full of European-based players including a bona fide young star, they might just grab it.
The Best XI
There’s a lot to like across the board in this squad, but there are a couple no-brainers in this XI: first, captain and Inter Milan star Hakan Çalhanoğlu in midfield. And in attack, Arda Güler, who’s become a real impact player at Real Madrid at just 20 years old, after putting everyone on notice at the Euros in 2024. The latter will have plenty of help in attack, including Porto striker Deniz Gül and Juventus youngster Kenan Yıldız. I’m not sure if manager Vincenzo Montella will trot out a back 5, but he’d be hard-pressed not to, with the big club experience of Ozan Kabak, Çağlar Söyüncü and Merih Demiral at center-back, and Brighton’s Kadıoğlu and Roma’s Çelik as fullback options.
Group Schedule (all times ET)
6/12, 9 PM: United States v Paraguay (Los Angeles)
6/14, Midnight: Australia v Türkiye (Vancouver)
6/19, 3 PM: United States v Australia (Seattle)
6/19, 11 PM: Türkiye v Paraguay (San Francisco)
6/24, 10 PM: Türkiye v United States (Los Angeles) / Paraguay v Australia (San Francisco)
Group Prediction
More so than any other group in this tournament, I truly have no idea how to predict Group D. Just about all others have a clear favorite and/or a clear cellar-dweller, but unlike their fellow co-hosts, the United States weren’t given such a group. I’m more optimistic about the USMNT’s odds this tournament than I think many (perhaps most) are, and I do expect they will be favored in each match at least, but any one of their opponents is capable of beating them on a down day, and as such, I struggle to see them taking away an unprecedented 9 points. But the same unknown exists for the others: will youthful talent and a climate/landscape familiarity make Paraguay a surprise success, or will their inexperience doom them? Is Australia’s age a boon (veteran leadership, big game experience) or a burden (too slow in pace, especially in the hot climate)? Do Türkiye have the ideal blend of terrific young talent and veteran experience, or are they a team without identity? I would be shocked if the U.S. crashes out and finishes last in this group, but just about any other permutation of 1-2-3-4 would not surprise me. In the end, I’m going to defer to talent above all else and predict the hosts topping the group for just the second time in history, and Türkiye just pipping Paraguay for 2nd place on goal differential.
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