The Nominees: Best New Artist
Brazilian singer Anitta has been one of the biggest names in global pop music for several years now, but is yet to explode on to the American scene. Might a Best New Artist win be her Grammy and Stateside breakthrough?
You’d be forgiven if you forgot that the Grammys were happening just 20 days from today. After all, thanks to COVID-19, the last two ceremonies have ended up being postponed and pushed to late Spring instead of their usual window, a late January/early February weekend. Plus, I don't know if time is moving as fast for you as it is for me, but it sure feels to me like it was just yesterday that a happy but bemused Jon Baptiste was accepting the Album of the Year Grammy in front of a happy but bemused audience. But it’s true; we are fast approaching “Music’s biggest night,” as the Grammys like to bill themselves, and as such, we will take the next couple weeks to do an overview of the biggest awards of the night, culminating in a general predictions piece on the day of the ceremony. First one up: Best New Artist!
A reminder, first of all, that while for many decades, each of the General Awards had fields of 5 nominees, in recent years, we saw those fields expanded to 8. Then, last year, at the 11th hour, the Academy decided to expand that number to 10 nominees in the General awards. So, even more nominees to preview!
Best New Artist is one of the most fascinating awards of the night, in part because of its track record, in part because of its criteria. The award has featured many famous winners, such as The Beatles, Crosby Stills & Nash, Cyndi Lauper, Tracy Chapman, Mariah Carey, Alicia Keys, Maroon 5, Adele, Chance the Rapper, Dua Lipa and Billie Eilish. It also has featured some major headscratchers, such as Macklemore beating the likes of Kendrick Lamar and Kacey Musgraves, Esperanza Spalding winning over a field that included Drake and Justin Bieber, and Meghan Trainor beating the likes of...well, anyone. Perhaps relatedly to the second point, there even is a "Best New Artist curse" that is often discussed, only half-jokingly, about the surprisingly common trend of breakout artists who win the award immediately fading back from the public view, never to really make much of an impact on the music scene again. Notably, however, that curse seems to have been broken in recent years. Don't believe me? Here are the last four winners of the award: Dua Lipa, Billie Eilish, Megan Thee Stallion, and Olivia Rodrigo. I'd say those women have done alright for themselves, no?
The award for Best New Artist also generates buzz just about every year because it isn't ever really clear to anyone who isn't in the Recording Academy just what a new artist is. The official guidelines for the award have changed numerous times over the years, but one thing that has stayed consistent, at least in my lifetime, is that there is no real consistency. You can get a selection of nominees some years-- such as this year! --that have a range of 1 album to 4+ albums. The latest official guidelines for the award, according to the Academy, are as follows: "For a new artist who releases, during the Eligibility Year, the first recording which establishes the public identity of that artist." So uh, yeah. Clear as mud? Cool.
All that being said, here are this year's nominees, in order from least to most likely to win, according to odds from GoldDerby.com.
Tobe Nwigwe
Odds: 22-1
Active Since: 2016
Likely Nominated For: His LP moMINTs
Biggest Song: "FYE FYE"
Metacritic Artist Score: N/A
Ask anyone who knows Tobe Nwigwe, and they will tell you this level of recognition is a long time coming, and should only be the start in terms of the acclaim he receives. The Houston-born rapper has been an underground icon for several years now. Nwigwe, whose parents immigrated stateside from Nigeria, actually was a successful player at the University of North Texas, but when injuries derailed any hopes of an NFL career, underwent a remarkable pivot to rapper, singer, and nonprofit organizer. In life, music, and his nonprofit TeamGINI, he often collaborates with his wife Martica. They started gaining a noteworthy following through Nwigwe's (successful) mission to release an original song and video every Sunday since all the way back to August 2016. Amidst all that, he's been able to release multiple EPs and albums, the last of which (2022, moMINTs) is likely what landed him on this list for his first-ever Grammy nod. I'm actually quite surprised that he clocks in with the highest odds according to GoldDerby. Would I put money on him winning the award? No, but he occupies a unique lane amongst these nominees, and I have to imagine his years of steadily releasing original music have built up a good amount of name recognition and admirers in music circles.
Molly Tuttle
Odds: 18-1
Active Since: 2017
Likely Nominated For: Her album Crooked Tree
Biggest Song: "Take This Journey"
Metacritic Artist Score: 78
To say Molly Tuttle has only been active since 2017 isn't entirely true. That year marks the starting point of her career as a solo artist, with the release of her EP Rise, as well as an ensuing award from the International Bluegrass Music Association for "Guitar Player of the Year." However, Tuttle's been involved with music for virtually her whole life. Born into a musical family, she played guitar and banjo with her siblings and dad in the family band The Tuttles starting at age 8. She would leave this family band to study music at Berklee College, where she joined an all-female bluegrass group The Goodbye Girls. After school, however, she moved to Nashville to make her own music, with a new backing band, and this gave way to the aforementioned debut EP, followed by two albums in the last 3 years, the latter of which landed her in Grammy contention. Her positioning for Best New Artist is similar to Tobe Nwigwe's; a longshot, to be sure, due to lack of widespread exposure, but a unique genre amongst the nominees and long time spent in the music industry could go a long way.
DOMi and JD BECK
Odds: 16-1
Active Since: 2018
Likely Nominated For: Their album NOT TiGHT
Biggest Song: "Take A Chance" (feat. Anderson.Paak)
Metacritic Artist Score: 82
In keeping with the theme thus far, the duo of DOMi and JD BECK are unlike any other Best Artist nominee this year, and truthfully, Grammy nominees most years. After all, it's rare to find an act comprised of two former child prodigies. Domi Louna, born in France, has played three instruments since age 3 and was enrolled in the Paris Music Conservatory at age 5. That was the same age that JD Beck, born in Dallas, began playing piano; a few years later, he would add drums to his arsenal and begin playing gigs with touring jazz and soul musicians. The two of them met just four years ago, and began collaborating as songwriters and backing acts, with and for the likes of Ariana Grande, Bruno Mars, Anderson.Paak, and Thundercat. Finally, in April of last year, the duo released a lead single and in July, a debut album of original works, both to widespread critical acclaim. Their chances of beating out many other more mainstream artists for this award may not be high, but they're certain to win over many more admirers with this nomination, and actually have another chance to strike Grammy gold, as NOT TiGHT is nominated for Best Contemporary Jazz Album.
Samara Joy
Odds: 15-1
Active Since: 2019
Likely Nominated For: Her album Linger Awhile
Biggest Song: "Warm In December"
Metacritic Artist Score: N/A
Samara Joy wins the distinction of being the youngest Best New Artist nominee this year-- and, not that correlation proves causation, but two of the last three winners of the award (Olivia Rodrigo and Billie Eilish) have in fact been the youngest nominees. Born in the Bronx to a family of Gospel singers and musicians, she too had music in her veins from a young age, and by the time she got to Fordham University to become a voice major, was proficient enough to win the university's "Essentially Ellington" award for Best Vocalist. Her voice is a throwback to classic vocalists of the past, drawing comparisons to Ella Fitzgerald and Sarah Vaughn. It's no surprise, then, that she's quickly put the Jazz world on notice; Jazz Times named her their Best New Artist of 2021, and multiple viral videos on TikTok led to a breakout success and well-received album in 2022. Joy's undeniable talent and vintage appeal may make her a legitimate dark horse in this race.
Omar Apollo
Odds: 15-1
Active Since: 2018
Likely Nominated For: His album Ivory
Biggest Song: "Evergreen (You Didn't Deserve Me At All)"
Metacritic Artist Score: 79
Omar Apollo is one of those classic stories we hear about all the time: born to Mexican parents who immigrated to the U.S., he grew up dancing ballet folklorico in small-town Indiana and sang in his Catholic church choir before picking up guitar at age 12 and teaching himself to play using YouTube tutorials. Okay, yes, I'm being sarcastic; like all other nominees discussed this far, Apollo is a unique person, and unique brand of talented. And unlike all other nominees thus far, that talent has seen somewhat of a mainstream breakthrough for the artist. After a couple years of uploading his work, including his debut EP Stereo to SoundCloud while working odd jobs, he began to find some success as a featured artist and opening act on tour for other, more established alt-pop and R&B acts. His 2020 mixtape Apolonio, and collaborations with other rising stars like Joji and Daniel Caesar, finally saw him break through to more mainstream radio play, and his latest album Ivory along with lead singles "Go Away" and "Evergreen" became his most successful to date. Without spoiling too much about the upcoming nominees, I will say I see a clear path to victory for Apollo; he combines the unique musical lane of the names that preceded him with a touch of the success the upcoming ones have seen.
Muni Long
Odds: 13-1
Active Since: 2009
Likely Nominated For: Her single "Hrs and Hrs"
Biggest Song: "Hrs and Hrs"
Metacritic Artist Score: N/A
Like Molly Tuttle before her, Muni Long scores a nomination for Best New Artist despite either being in the game for over a decade now, or just a few years now, depending on how you look at it. In 2009, a then-20 year old Priscilla Renea released a debut R&B album named Jukebox, to favorable reviews. Priscilla went behind the scenes after that, though; rather than release more music as a lead artist, she spent the next decade writing and co-writing songs for other artists. Not just any old "artists," either; hit singles from the likes of Rihanna, Ariana Grande, Pitbull, Fifth Harmony and Kelly Clarkson. But in 2019, Priscilla was back with new music for herself at long last, this time under the pseudonym Muni Long. Her EPs Black Like This and Nobody Knows garnered mild praise and success, but the past year has been her zenith, thanks to her EP Public Displays of Affection, and hit singles "Baby Boo," "Time Machine," and "Hrs and Hrs." The latter in particular has been her highest-charting single to date, and also landed Grammy nominations for Best R&B Song and Best R&B Performance. Her breakthrough on the mainstream scene already positions her nicely for this award, and don't discount the power of goodwill she's likely stored up by being a songwriter for and driving force behind many of the last decade's biggest pop stars.
Latto
Odds: 13-1
Active Since: 2016
Likely Nominated For: Her single "Big Energy"
Biggest Song: "Big Energy"
Metacritic Artist Score: 73
The music world first really got to know Latto, then named "Miss Mulatto," back in 2016, when she won the Lifetime Channel's rap competition series The Rap Game. She made the bold choice to reject the prize from that show, though, a record deal with So Def Records, claiming it was not enough money, and as a result grew her fanbase in a more traditionally 'underground' manner. A slew of singles in 2019 and 2020, however, like "Bitch From Da Souf" and "Muwop," put her back on the radar, as did feature verses with the likes of Doja Cat, Gucci Mane, Chloe x Halle, and G-Eazy. Then, in late 2021, she dropped "Big Energy," the Mariah Carey-sampling lead single off her 2022 album 777, and suddenly, it was hard to listen to a Hip-Hop radio station without hearing her voice. Ensuing singles from the album, like "Soufside," "Pussy," and "Sunshine" have also found mainstream success, but it's the chart-topping "Big Energy," also nominated for Best Melodic Rap Performance that undeniably launched her stardom. Accordingly, in a field devoid of the mega pop star the last several years' (and most years', truthfully) Best New Artist nominees have included, there's no question she is likely the most immediately recognizable to everyday radio listeners. For an award that, like many Grammys, tends to go to the biggest name, that has to make her a serious contender for the trophy.
Wet Leg
Odds: 12-1
Active Since: 2020
Likely Nominated For: Their album Wet Leg
Biggest Song: "Wet Dream"
Metacritic Artist Score: 87
In a Best New Artist field full of nominees that are more of the "put in the time, now they're reaping the reward" ilk, Wet Leg are the closest thing to the 'instant success' that reigning winner Olivia Rodrigo experienced. The British indie-punk duo of Rhian Teasdale and Hester Chambers both had written and played music individually for several years on the Isle of Wight, and actually befriended each other a decade ago while in university, but only decided to form a band in 2019. Their first-ever single "Chaise Lounge" came out in June 2021, and unexpectedly racked up a very high amount of streams. Proving they were more than a flash in a pan, however, they dropped "Wet Dream" several months later, and this would chart even higher on UK radio, as well as earn their second consecutive appearance on the U.S. alternative charts. This gave way to the April release of their debut, eponymous album, which saw universal acclaim, and nominations for Album of the Year at the Brit Awards, as well as Best Alternative Album at these Grammys. Lest you think their popularity is strictly confined to alternative circles, too, "Wet Dream" was covered by Harry Styles, and the global pop icon later announced the band would be joining the 2023 leg of his worldwide tour as the opening act. More often than not, Best New Artist goes to the biggest established pop star, but in the instances it doesn't, it tends to go to the indie darling. Wet Leg, then, are in the enviable position of being the biggest established indie darlings of the field.
Måneskin
Odds: 23-2
Active Since: 2017
Likely Nominated For: Their singles "Beggin'" and "Supermodel"
Biggest Song: "Beggin'"
Metacritic Artist Score: 76
Måneskin have forged an unorthodox, but perhaps groundbreaking route to fame. The Italian rock band formed as high school friends in Rome back in 2016, but spent the first couple years as a group performing almost exclusively as buskers in the Italian capital. In 2017, however, they found success in the form of X Factor Italia, finishing second place on the reality show behind covers of several famous rock songs. This gave way to domestic success, which reached its peak in 2021, with a rare victory for rock n' roll at the Italian Sanremo Music Festival, which qualified them for Eurovision 2021. Their surprise success continued with an upset victory at Eurovision (Italy's first title since 1990), and that European success became global, thanks to their cover of the Four Seasons' "Beggin'" becoming uber-viral on the popular social media platform TikTok. Sold out shows and award show performances across the world, including here int he U.S., soon followed, as did the successful releases of singles "I Wanna Be Your Slave" and "Supermodel", and just recently, album Rush!. It's not hard to see why Måneskin are heavy-hitters in the race for Best New Artist. It's not often an act comes into the Grammys with multiple appealing storylines like: rags-to-riches, international success, 'TikTok generation' appeal, and in the midst of having a moment worldwide.
Anitta
Odds: 11-1
Active Since: 2012
Likely Nominated For: Her album Versions Of Me
Biggest Song: "Envolver"
Metacritic Artist Score: 74
If I told you an international act was the betting favorite for a Grammy, you would likely struggle to see how said act wasn't the group that, as just discussed, won the most famous global music competition and found success in America thanks to social media omnipresence. But, as it turns out, being a pop star that is a worldwide sensation for many years now might just be the angle that trumps that one. Anitta very well may be the most famous person you have never heard of. Born in one of the most impoverished neighborhoods in Rio de Janeiro, Anitta's career started almost entirely by chance, when she met a well-known Brazilan producer in 2010, who agreed to listen to some of her demo tapes. Impressed by her talent, he helped her get some songs on Brazilian radio stations and in 2012, an appearance on TV program Cante se Puder. Her impressive performance gave way to a big Warner Music contract, and a single "Meiga e Abusada," whose popularity exploded when used in a popular telenovela. 2013 saw her first full-length album and a popular nationwide tour, and by 2017 (two albums later), she was embarking on international tours, earning popularity across the globe. She dropped her first English-language single in 2019, and began collaborating with some American stars such as Cardi B and Saweetie. But despite her nonstop rise in popularity across the World, it wasn't until this last year, with the release of Versions Of Me and a smash success lead single "Envolver," that she finally earned some forays into American radio. A sensation just about everywhere else in the World, she might just be breaking through on American shores. This is the most wide-open race for Best New Artist that I can think of, and as such, I wouldn't consider any favorite to be a "safe bet." But, between her global success and being perched on the precipice here in the States, it's not reaching too much to argue that Anitta is better positioned than anyone to take home the award.
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