The Couch Power 10, Week 10
- Daniel Woodiwiss
- 3 days ago
- 6 min read
Welcome to November. We've reached the final month of the regular season. It's scarcely believable, but around this time next month, we'll know what our 12-team postseason is. And by tonight, we'll not only know New York City's next mayor, but also our first College Football Playoff Top 25 of the season. So before the playoff committee unveils their annually reliable botch job, allow The Couch Power 10 to get out in front of it.
After a September and an October that saw a whole lot of moving and shaking in the rankings from where people's preseason expectations were, you would understandably assume that trend would heighten as we approach the finish line. But instead, for the second straight week, we had a relatively demure weekend of football. It makes sense when you think about it- this is the time in the season where we start to really discover who teams are; most of them have improved to close to their final form, and know it's crunch time, so it stands to reason we'd see less wild upsets. That said, I shouldn't act like last Saturday was devoid of big developments: in two of the three solitary all-ranked matchups on the day, Oklahoma more or less eliminated SEC foes Tennessee from playoff contention with a road win in Knoxville, while Utah did the same to Cincinnati in the Big 12 with College Gameday in town, routing the Bearcats 45-14. Vanderbilt's playoff hopes aren't dead, but may be on life support, after a tough loss in Austin to Texas, who somehow has kept their postseason hopes afloat as well. North Texas blasted Navy in both a high-stakes conference tilt and a possible "Group of 5" elimination game, and Georgia decided 3 consecutive thrilling comeback wins wasn't enough and made it 4, with a last-minute victory over poor Florida. And chaos reigned in the ACC, where NC State ended Georgia Tech's perfect season, taking down another previously unbeaten conference opponent, and SMU edged preseason favorites Miami in an overtime thriller, possibly dealing a knockout blow to the Hurricanes' playoff chances. But of course, as we all know, the biggest result of all came on Friday night, when the red-hot North Carolina Tar Heels notched their first Power 5 win under Bill Belichick, thanks to a dominant road performance in Syracuse.
Just a refresher, in case you forgot: this is not a definitive ranking on how good the teams are, or on who I think will be/deserves to be in the playoff at the end of the year. Rather, it's more of a "What if preseason rankings and bigwig bias didn't predetermine the top teams" kind of thing, an ideal ranking of the country's teams based on what they've actually proved on the field to date. Don't be mad cuz I'm doin' me better than you doin' you:
Tier I: The undisputed Top 3
1. Ohio State
For one fleeting half of football, it looked like troubled Penn State (you know, the preseason #2 team in America) might actually be able to unexpectedly surprise Ohio State. Then the Buckeyes reminded everyone why they’re the team to beat by quickly unleashing a 21-0 run to put the game away and pitching a shutout in the 2nd half.
2. Indiana
I think Indiana’s win in Oregon addressed any skepticism about how good they were, but the manner in which they’ve been winning over the weaker teams in their schedule should leave little doubt. Michigan State, UCLA, and Maryland are all in the bottom quadrant of the Big Ten, yes, but the Hoosiers did what great teams should be doing, and annihilated them by an average of 40 points. Now comes a road trip to Penn State, that looks wildly different than it did preseason; I worry about trap game potential here, as a huge win at home is the last thing the Nittany Lions have to play for this season. Get past this one, though, and IU is surely looking at a 12-0 season and a Big Ten Championship berth.
3. Texas A&M
Texas A&M had a bye week, but it works out perfectly: they get a week to prepare for a tough closing stretch (starting with a road trip to Missouri this weekend), and their strength of record didn’t suffer a bit, still holding strong at top in the country.
Tier II: The 1-loss SEC teams
4. Alabama
Alabama also had a bye week, which also came at a nice time; the Houdini act needed to escape South Carolina with a win suggested they might just need some time to refocus before a couple key SEC games in this last stretch.
5. Georgia
Another week, another so-so Georgia performance that sees them fighting for their lives in the 4th quarter…only for offense and defense to both lock in and put on a 4th-quarter clinic to help the Bulldogs grind out a win. I talked at the top about how this is the time of the season where we’re starting to find out who teams are; maybe this is just who Georgia is! An imperfect, but talented and tough team that knows how to pull out wins. It may not be as dominant or flashy as their teams from that golden 2021-2023 stretch were, but it suggests a real edge that last year’s wildly inconsistent group just didn’t seem to have.
6. Ole Miss
I’ve been most impressed by how Ole Miss has responded to the Georgia loss. Collapsing down the stretch in such a big game and having to immediately face two very tough teams could cause lesser teams to spiral. Instead, the Rebels went right back into a hostile environment and beat Oklahoma last week, and then cruised against a preseason Top 15 South Carolina team that was a week removed from very nearly beating Bama. A potentially very tricky Egg Bowl season finale seems to be the only viable thing standing between Lane Kiffin’s crew and an 11-win season and surefire playoff berth.
Tier III: Still pretty unproven, but they look feisty
7. BYU
Keeping with the theme of well-timed bye week, BYU got a chance to catch their breath from their big back-to-back weeks of beating rivals Utah and then defending runners-up Iowa State on the road, and right before they (and College Gameday) go rolling into Lubbock to face fellow Top 10 side Texas Tech.
8. Oregon
Oregon also had the week off, presumably to sit and think about their mistakes in struggling with lowly Wisconsin. The Ducks have been able to fly under the radar ever since that Indiana loss, but with a closing stretch against Iowa, USC and Washington (all teams who could feasibly in the playoff rankings tonight), their mettle will soon be tested.
9. Texas Tech
Texas Tech has responded well from their lone loss this season, blowing the doors off of Big 12 cellar-dwellers Oklahoma State and then surviving a slow start against Kansas State last week. The competition level will go up several notches this weekend though, as the eyes of a nation watch them host undefeated Big 12 foes BYU in an early playoff tilt. The stakes couldn't be higher for the Red Raiders: win, and they're in the driver's seat for the conference and the postseason. Lose, and they're squarely on the playoff bubble.
10. Louisville
Georgia Tech's first loss and Miami's second further confounded the ACC picture. There are now five teams with just one conference loss, and the lone unbeaten conference team is Virginia, whose only loss on the season came to... ACC team North Carolina State (the two agreed to play as a non-conference game). Virginia beat these Cardinals head-to-head, to their credit, but amidst the 6-way logjam near the top of the conference, I think the ACC's true best team right now is Louisville. That lone loss to UVA may have come at home, but it came in double overtime, and the Cards are the only ones with wins over two currently ranked teams (Miami and Pitt, both on the road), as well as a victory over chippy Group of Five side and playoff dark horse James Madison. A potentitally decisive date with SMU awaits in the penultimate week, but if Jeff Brohm and co. just keep chopping wood, they may be very well positioned to crash the playoff party.
Just missed: Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, North Texas, Memphis, Demon June
The Playoff Picture according to The Couch:
(5) Georgia v (12) North Texas
(6) Ole Miss v (11) Notre Dame
(7) BYU v (10) Louisville
(8) Oregon v (9) Texas Tech
ROSE BOWL: (1) Ohio State v ORE/TT winner
ORANGE BOWL: (2) Indiana v BYU/LOU winner
COTTON BOWL: (3) Texas A&M v MISS/ND winner
SUGAR BOWL: (4) Alabama v UGA/UNT winner
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