The Couch Power 10, Week 11
- Daniel Woodiwiss
- 3 days ago
- 7 min read
As we enter the final quarter of the football season, a sentence that still feels surreal to be saying, the moving and shaking has not stopped across the landscape. Sure, as is often the case, we’ve seen the suspected top teams- or at least the general tiers of teams -calcifying. Sure, the weekend slate last Saturday seemed like slim pickins, so much so that it was the only weekend this season thus far that I watched next to no football. But that didn’t stop the motion of the college football ocean from bringing us some excitement, and some major developments.
And a good thing, too, because the only two really major games on the day were a bust. Texas A&M went to # 20 Missouri for their stiffest road test since their opener at Notre Dame, and Texas Tech hosted # 7 BYU in a much-anticipated all-Top 10 Big 12 affair, and well, both Texas teams won handily (by 21 and 22, respectively). But elsewhere across the slate, it was a day of upsets and near-upsets! Chaos continues to reign in the ACC; Virginia and Louisville were offed by unranked Wake Forest and Cal, launching Georgia Tech back into pole position for a playoff spot and resurrecting from the dead the hopes of Miami, SMU, and even Pitt. It didn’t get much attention on a big day, but # 23 Washington’s loss at a god-awful Wisconsin team might have actually been the weekend’s most shocking result. But speaking of tough road games in the Big Ten, Indiana’s perfect season flashed before their eyes in State College, as did Oregon’s Big Ten title hopes and playoff standing in Iowa City. But after their teams conceded late go-ahead touchdowns, and amidst a raucous away crowd, Fernando Mendoza and Dante Moore unleashed brilliant game-winning drives to keep the Hoosiers unbeaten and the Ducks in line for a home playoff game (and alive in the Big Ten race still). Playoff hopefuls and national sweethearts Vanderbilt also kept their dreams alive, just barely, with a wild rally and overtime escape at poor, cursed Auburn.
As the playoff committee prepares for the second week of their rankings, our ‘tier system’ unveiled a couple weeks ago here at the Couch Power 10 continues to hold strong and true.
Just a refresher, in case you forgot: this is not a definitive ranking on how good the teams are, or on who I think will be/deserves to be in the playoff at the end of the year. Rather, it's more of a "What if preseason rankings and bigwig bias didn't predetermine the top teams" kind of thing, an ideal ranking of the country's teams based on what they've actually proved on the field to date. Don't be mad cuz I'm doin' me better than you doin' you:
Tier I: The undisputed Top 3
1. Ohio State
We didn't actually expect Ohio State to lose to Purdue, did we? Didn't think so. Two home games against conference cellar-dwellars await the Buckeyes, then their chance to score their first win over Michigan in the 2020s.
2. Texas A&M
While the Big Ten tandem at the top of the rankings and the SEC shuffle beneath them continues to command most of the college football headlines, Texas A&M just quietly is putting together one of their greatest seasons ever. A road trip to a Top 20 Missouri team is not the easiest return form a bye week, and yet the Aggies could barely be bothered to break a sweat, ultimately winning by 3 touchdowns. A potentially tricky visit from South Carolina is on the horizon this weekend, but chances are their unbeaten season will be on the line with the season finale in Austin against rivals Texas.
3. Indiana
Lest you think the Hoosiers dropping in the Couch Power 10 is me punishing them for only barely winning, I will point you to what I said last week ahead of the Penn State clash: "I worry about trap game potential here, as a huge win at home is the last thing the Nittany Lions have to play for this season." In other words, I have long thought that this game would trip Indiana up, and thus am in fact nothing but impressed that they dug deep to find a way to pull out a victory! The slight drop to # 3 has almost everything to do with how good Texas A&M has been, and a little bit to do with some hesitation over how good Oregon-- Indiana's lone currently-ranked win --truly is (more on that in a bit).
Tier II: The 1-loss SEC teams
4. Alabama
Alabama is still unbeaten since August, perfect in the SEC, and controls their own destiny for an SEC championship and a 1st-round bye in the playoff, but it definitely feels like their red-hot train is starting to lose some steam. They rattled off an incredible 4 straight wins over Top 15 teams, but since that run have come within inches of losing to South Carolina, taken a bye week, and now returned from said bye week with a fairly listless performance against an unranked LSU team playing under an interim coach. The good news is the hard work for the Tide is almost done- a big-time game awaits this weekend with Oklahoma fighting for their playoff lives, but if Bama can avenge last year's loss to the Sooners, they've got one foot in the SEC Championship, and a Sharpied-in entry to the playoff.
5. Georgia
It is funny and ironic to me that on the day of the upset/near upset, Georgia finally put together a complete, dominant performance for the first time this season. And on the road against a tough team, no less! I actually suspect they might be better than Alabama at this point, but ranking them higher would go against my personal belief that if two teams are neck-and-neck with the same record, the tie goes to the head-to-head.
6. Ole Miss
Ole Miss took a break from tricky games to beat up on FCS opponents The Citadel, 49-0. Lane Kiffin seems primed for his first playoff appearance as head coach, as the Rebels have only unranked Florida and Mississippi State between them and a very impressive 11-1 season. I actually suspect they might be better than Georgia at this point, but ranking them higher would go against my personal belief that if two teams are neck-and-neck with the same record, the tie goes to the head-to-head.
Tier III: Texas Tech
7. Texas Tech
It's totally unfair to lump Texas Tech in with the "unproven" tier, given that the Red Raiders just played their third ranked opponent of the year, and have won two of those games by an average of 23 points. Their lone blemish remains the last-minute loss in the desert against reigning champs Arizona State, and the Raiders exorcised the demons from that last high-stakes showdown by dominating a good BYU team on both sides of the ball in Lubbock. Tech is clearly the class of the Big 12 at this point, and while they won't get the attention the Big Ten and SEC teams do, they might just have the stuff to make a run in the postseason should they have the chance.
Tier IV: Still pretty unproven, but they look feisty
8. Oregon
Winning in Iowa City, especially under the lights, is never an easy task, and this Iowa team isn't bad. In that regard, a fairly young Oregon team deserves immense credit for figuring out a way to win a tough game. That said, the Hawkeyes aren't a particularly impressive team, either, and the Ducks were very close to letting a QB that has been struggling all year long go all the way down the field beat them with a 90-yard touchdown drive. Which leads to a question I've been asking myself these last few weeks: is Oregon....kinda overrated? I've thought all along this team had the stuff but that crucial win in Penn State registers with absolutely nobody at this point, and since then, they've lost at home to Indiana, struggled with a bad Wisconsin team, and now barely escaped Iowa. The good news is 11 wins certainly gets them into the playoff, and most likely, even 10 wins does. The bad news is they're gonna have to play a heck of a lot better or they're not getting out of this closing stretch vs. Minnesota, USC and Washington unscathed.
9. BYU
Propaganda I'm not falling for: that a resounding loss to Texas Tech proves that BYU isn't a good team. The Red Raiders are a step above them right now, but losing on the road to the best team in your conference at a game that kicked off 9:00 AM your time is an acceptable way for your perfect season to end. The Cougars still control their own destiny, and still have an impressive body of work thus far, but will need to refocus to avoid last year's late-season slump, as big games with TCU and Cincinnati loom.
10. Notre Dame
The first 1-loss team to make the Couch Power 10 this season was Alabama, and now the first 2-loss team to do so is Notre Dame. What a time to be one of Daniel’s least-favorite college football programs of the last 15 years. But, though many in SEC corners may disagree, the Irish deserve it. Yes, their signature win to date is a home W vs. USC, which isn’t much, but they have looked absolutely menacing on both sides of the ball since their 0-2 start. What’s more, there aren’t really “good losses,” but there are certainly bad ones, and losses to the # 3 and on the road at the # 15 team by a combined 4 points is probably the “least bad” pair of losses you can have.
Just missed: Texas, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech, Utah, the vaunted Tar Heel defense
The Playoff Picture according to The Couch:
(5) Georgia v (12) James Madison
(6) Ole Miss v (11) Georgia Tech
(7) Texas Tech v (10) Notre Dame
(8) Oregon v (9) BYU
ROSE BOWL: (1) Ohio State v ORE/BYU winner
ORANGE BOWL: (2) Indiana v TT/ND winner
COTTON BOWL: (3) Texas A&M v MISS/GT winner
SUGAR BOWL: (4) Alabama v UGA/JMU winner
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