Grammy Preview: Album of the Year Contestants
- Daniel Woodiwiss
- Oct 6
- 19 min read
Updated: 2 hours ago
Usually when I write this piece, I can't believe how quickly it's Grammy szn again after the most recent ceremony ended. And while yes, there is a part of me that can't believe we're already in October again, that usual sense of "this preview again already?!?" isn't there this time. It might just be that so much has happened in this last year, both personally and in my public life, since I was giving a standing ovation in my living room to Beyoncé who had finally won her elusive Album of the Year. It's more likely related to the fact that for the firs time...ever?, last Grammys ceremony was an all-time favorite of mine. Performances from start to finish helped make the production spectacular, but the immensely satisfying triumph of Chappell Roan, Kendrick Lamar, and of course, Queen B for some of the biggest awards of the night meant that for once, I wanted to actually revel in the awards rather than sit around and stew for months on end about who was robbed. But at any rate, the hour cometh all the same: we're nearly at Grammy season once more!!
Other than being unexpectedly delighted with the major winners, we're back in pre-pandemic 'business as usual' when it comes to the Grammys. In 2023, we finally saw the return to Los Angeles and the Staples Center for the first time in three years, and now the important checkpoint dates-- eligibility, nominations, voting, and main ceremony --are back in line with how they looked in the 2010s. What that means is that just over a month ago, on Labor Day itself, the "eligibility period" for next year's ceremony closed. And in exactly one month from today, we musicheads, with eager anticipation, will once again see what from September 2024-August 2025 will be nominated for what is billed as “Music’s biggest night.” As always, my highest level of interest is in the Album of the Year award, widely considered to be the Grammy equivalent of the Best Picture. Let's take a look at some works that I expect to be in the running:
Surefire Candidates
DeBÍ TIRAR MáS FOToS // Bad Bunny
I will confess, in my several years doing this preview piece, this is the least confident I've felt that a contender is in fact, a "surefire" nominee (and that includes some past instances of misplaced confidence, such as when Taylor Swift's Reputation, Ed Sheeran's Divide, and Beyonce & Jay-Z's Everything Is Love didn't end up garnering nominations). After all, the infamously white Grammys don't have the strongest record of recognizing Latinx artists, be it reggaeton, bachata, or otherwise. In fact, just last year, Bad Bunny had an eligible release that was not an Album of the Year nominee, nor wide recipient anywhere. But few, if any, artists have had the year Bad Bunny has had. He has been one of the biggest global stars for some time now, and his fame only heightened this year with another acclaimed album release, being a virtual mainstay on Saturday Night Live, and another wildly successful global tour. He made headlines for keeping said tour out of the United States, but that didn't deter Roc Nation and the powers that be from tabbing him for the Super Bowl Halftime Show, which will take place exactly one week after these awards. For a show that demonstrated last year a renewed interest in being up with the here and now, I have to imagine Bad Bunny will be among their nominees if not the favorite to take top honors among what could be a weak field.
GNX // Kendrick Lamar
One of the only mini-battles Drake won in his 2024 war with Kendrick Lamar was originating the line: "Kendrick just opened his mouth/Someone go get him a Grammy right now." It was an effective barb because it's no secret that, for all the Grammys' many oversights of and blindness to successful Black artists, the awards show has always loved Kendrick. Each one of his studio albums has garnered an Album of the Year nomination, and after a calendar year that saw him win Song and Record of the Year at the last Grammys, perform an electrifying set at the Super Bowl Halftime Show, and embark on a wildly successful stadium tour with fellow label star SZA, I see no reason to believe that trend will change this year.
Contenders
Addison // Addison Rae
Addison Rae's transition from TikTok star to pop star became fully realized in 2025. There were signs of her taking those steps going as far back as 5 years ago, but with features on some big name albums, and the release of her own critically-acclaimed debut, she charted out a whole other direction. Probably in no small part related to the fact that figures like Lana del Rey and especially Charli XCX have taken Addison under their wing, her fanbase is surprisingly niche for a young social media star, so I wouldn't be surprised if she is neither as known or as beloved among the Recording Academy as she is on Twitter. But given the increased acceptance of a del Rey or an XCX among the Album of the Year nominees in recent years, a nomination for Rae would not be a shock.
American Heart // Benson Boone
Benson Boone has become somewhat of a meme in the last year, thanks in no small part to the omnipresence of his wildly divisive hit single "Beautiful Things"-- so memed, in fact, that I expect a nomination in this category would be met with much derision and confusion. But lest the online haters forget, Boone has had a very successful year; even as his debut album was fairly panned by critics, it sold well and launched a successful nationwide arena tour. That mainstream success, and the precedence of having just been nominated for Best New Artist last year, makes him a viable candidate in this race.
BIG MONEY // Jon Batiste
Jon Batiste has been nominated for this award with each of his last two releases, the latter just two years ago, and famously winning the award in 2022 in one of the cermony's biggest stunners ever. BIG MONEY may not have been heard far and wide, but Jon Batiste is so beloved in the music community that he can't be ignored as a candidate, especially with his newfound Grammy pedigree.
CHROMAKOPIA // Tyler, the Creator
Tyler, the Creator is not exactly what you would call a typical Grammy contender: after all, an awards show that his historically poor at recognizing Black creatives and hip-hop is unlikely to properly celebrate one of the most creative and dare I say outlandish hip-hop artists today. Yet, Tyler did take home Best Rap Album for both IGOR in 2020 and Call Me If You Get Lost in 2022, and 2024's CHROMAKOPIA stands well-positioned to be a contender for that award again. Given Tyler's continued rise in popularity and esteem, and signs of actual progress in diveristy among the Academy, might this be the year he finally breaks through to the major awards categories?
Hurry Up Tomorrow // The Weeknd
If Bad Bunny is shut out of the major categories for a ceremony that's taking place one week before his Super Bowl Halftime Show, it will be shocking, but it won't be without precedent: back in 2021, The Weeknd was infamously completely shut out of the Grammys, despite being the selected performer for Super Bowl LV the following week, and having one of the biggest albums and songs of 2020 in After Hours and "Blinding Lights," respectively. This sparked a multi-year feud between the artist and the awards show, with the former complaining that the show's process was inauthentic politicking. However, that hatchet was officially buried last year, when new Academy president Harvey Mason Jr. made a point of introducing The Weeknd's performance promoting the then-upcoming Hurry Up Tomorrow and explaining how the artist's public challenge caused the voting body to make real changes. The snark in me would find it darkly funny if, after that very public show of solidarity, the Academy proceeded to turn around and completely snub The Weeknd again; but I think his undeniable star power and the good reception to this album will make it a very easy call for them to grant him a nod.
I Said I Love You First // Benny Blanco & Selena Gomez
Selena Gomez is certainly one of the biggest stars to never feature in the field for this award. Sure, a lot of her star power comes from her acting career (and being an omnipresent figure on social media, beauty brands, etc.), but she's also a wildly successful pop star, and this collaboration comes in tandem with her new husband, who himself has charted out a wildly successful career as a producer. I Said I Love You First generated little enough mainstream buzz that it's far from a given for two people who have never earned an AotY nod as primary artists themselves, but the two of them might jointly hold enough cultural cache and sway within the Academy to break through in a relatively weak year.
I'm The Problem // Morgan Wallen
Morgan Wallen's status as a contender is sort of the same as it has been every other time in the last several years: it depends on whether the Academy is willing to overlook a problematic person to give Country some recognition. He has a track record at this point of personal failings including arrests and racism, and the title of his latest album (and its lead single) suggests it seems he's past the point of trying to atone for it. An increasingly diverse and, based on last year alone, forward-thinking voting body likely wants nothing to do with him. And yet? There's no question he's Country's biggest star at this point, and if the Academy wants to prove that Country has an equal shot at these awards and Beyoncé's triumph last year wasn't a one-off, he's the easiest way to throw that wing a bone. Plus, it's not like being an unapologetic, badly-behaved man is exactly out of style these days.
Let God Sort 'Em Out // Clipse
Especially when considering the Grammy window includes Kendrick Lamar and two different Tyler the Creator records, it’s been a remarkable year for Hip-Hop, with many celebrated releases from some of the biggest names in the game. Yet, in the eyes of many, the best of them all came from a duo many of you reading this may not have even heard of: the brother tandem of Malice and Pusha T, also known as Clipse. The two last collabed on an album in 2009, before going their separate ways with their Rap careers; Malice focused on being a Christian rapper, while Pusha T made quite the name for himself in the mainstream, as a frequent collaborator with Kanye West, frequent beef-er with Drake and Travis Scott, and celebrated solo artist in his own right. Let God Sort ‘Em Out is one of the more universally acclaimed releases this year, and is a masterclass of two artists with distinct strengths bouncing off each other well and providing their own takes on a common theme. Does Pusha T alone, let alone the two brothers together have the name recognition and credibility for them to garner attention in the main awards, beyond just the Rap world? I’m not sure. But if the Academy is filled with more Hip-Hopheads than ever before, which very well may be the case, this album will likely be on the tip of a lot of tongues.
Man's Best Friend // Sabrina Carpenter
I mentioned it’s been a quieter year for the biggest names in Pop, and yet the last year’s biggest new pop star dropped another new album, so what do I know? Before her wildly successful Short n’ Sweet Tour was even complete, Sabrina Carpenter followed up with another album, keeping her at the top of the public eye. It’s more than just name recognition carrying her credentials as a contender, too; the reigning winner of the Grammy for Best Pop Album and Best Pop Recording already has awards show cred, and has proved her mettle as a versatile entertainer. In many ways, she seems like a slam dunk nominee, but for the fact that unfortunately Man’s Best Friend was just okay; the sophomore record received more mixed reviews than its award-winning predecessor, and neither “Manchild” nor “Only Son” have made anywhere the omnipresent cultural impact “Espresso” and “Please Please Please” did in 2024.
Mayhem // Lady Gaga
I mentioned it’s been a quieter year for the big names in Pop, and yet one of the 21st century’s biggest pop stars dropped an album, so what do I know? The pandemic prevented Chromatica from having nearly as much of a chokehold on the culture in 2020 as Lady Gaga and her devoted fans would have liked, so Mayhem feels in some ways like her true return to pop after a decade-plus of breaking into acting and forays into more traditional R&B and even Country records. Though each of her collaborations with Tony Bennett earned the two of them a joint Album of the Year nod, not since 2010’s The Fame Monster has Gaga herself received the honor for one of her own albums. That long layoff makes me hesitant to pencil her in as a sure thing, but there’s no question that a very well-received return to Pop form and a hit lead single that premiered during last year’s ceremony makes her a formidable contender indeed.
Moon Music // Coldplay
“Coldplay? They’re still making music? Is it any good?”, I hear many of you reading this asking. To which I tell you, a. Yes, those guys, b. They sure are, and c. No. But that last point has done nothing to hamper their status as megastars. The lads continue to be a global phenomenon, embarking on somewhat of a never-ending world tour, while intermittently releasing mediocre platitude-laden records like 2024’s Moon Music. If my tone sounds harsh, know that is only because I care; I was a longtime holdout and fan of all their music, all the way up through 2019’s refreshingly original and varied Everyday Life. Everything they’ve done in the 2020s has just been a bummer to me personally. But hey, that is neither here nor there. After a decade+ absence from the category, their last two albums have notched nominations for Album of the Year, suggesting the number of Chris Martin appreciators in the Academy now greatly outnumber the detractors. If they were a contender 3 years ago, I see no reason why they couldn’t be a contender in this year and for this album.
Portrait // Samara Joy
Speaking of 3 years ago, Samara Joy’s win at the 2023 Grammys for Best New Artist was one of the bigger “major category” shockers in recent memory. It wasn’t a particularly strong field that year, it must be said, but still, for a young Black woman, a little-known jazz singer with only one full album to win such a big Grammy award came as a surprise to just about everyone, including the artist herself. Nearly two years on, Joy released her first album since that ceremony, Portraits, to a mild charts reception but very positive critical reception. She’s gone from rising star to full-blown star in the Jazz world, but that’s obviously not a huge contingent of mainstream attention these days. Still, that Best New Artist win suggests some real appreciation and cross-generation appeal within the voting body. Might that mean getting to add Album of the Year nominee to her already impressive CV?
SABLE, fABLE // Bon Iver
Indie-folk icon Bon Iver has made his general dislike of awards shows well-known, but that hasn’t stopped him from submitting music for the Grammys nor the Grammys from recognizing him. He famously (infamously, if you ask the jilted Nicki Minaj) won Best New Artist at the peak of his breakout back in 2012, and has gone on to notch two Album of the Year nominations—most recently in 2020 for i,i – and be a perennial nominee in the “Alternative Music” and/or “Americana” categories. This release flew under the radar a bit, but was his best-received since his self-titled breakthrough album that landed him his big Grammy win, and with enough goodwill in the music industry by now, it would not be a shock to see his name called again.
Something Beautiful // Miley Cyrus
I mentioned above that Selena Gomez is probably the biggest star to have never been nominated for this award, but for most of her career, former Disney Channel friend Miley Cyrus could have given her a run for the money. That changed two years ago, when Cyrus finally landed her first AotY nod for Endless Summer Vacation among 5 other nominations, and notably, a Record of the Year victory for smash single “Flowers.” Something Beautiful didn’t yield a single with near the amount of cultural cache “Flowers” had, and the album itself (perhaps as a result) didn’t chart nearly as well. That said, it actually garnered better reviews than its predecessor, and with Miley well and truly on the Grammy map now, it’s a serious player.
So Close To What // Tate McRae
Pop is a genre that seems to constantly be searching for “the next big thing,” and in the eyes of many, Tate McRae is it. The Canadian got her breakout via So You Think You Can Dance, but has successfully made the leap to the music world. She first notched a big hit with single “Greedy” two years ago, but it was this album and its lead singles that vaulted her to stadium tour status, where she’s become acclaimed as a live performer. She isn’t as ardently beloved by ‘high pop’ fans as her fellow breakthrough star Addison Rae, but she is likely more recognizable to the everyday listener, and that might make her the leader in the clubhouse for the ‘Best New Artist nominee -> Album of the Year nominee’ race, inasmuch as that race exists.
Swag // Justin Bieber
Justin Bieber’s been a household name for so much of my life that I often forget we’re literally the same age. Case in point, his first Grammy nomination came in 2011 (my junior year of high school), and should Swag land an Album of the Year nomination, it would be his 4th album to do so. Biebs has nowhere near the unilateral control over the pop scene he had for a good bit of the 2010s, and in recent years, perhaps related to mental health reasons, has become more reclusive from the public eye. He’s still a megastar, though—arguably still THE male popstar at this time –and if earlier less successful, less well-received albums (like 2021’s Justice) could garner a nod, that suggests this one could, too. Bieber has friends in the Academy, there can be little doubt.
Virgin // Lorde
Lorde’s style—musically and personality-wise –could not be more different from Bieber’s, but she at least has a similar tale of exploding onto the scene as a teen star and seeing Grammy success pretty much right away. Released when she was just 17, Pure Heroine and especially lead single “Royals” took the world by storm, the latter winning her Song of the Year. It was her follow-up album Melodrama that further endeared many everyday people and critics alike to her, and caused many a millennial to deem her the songstress of our generation. However, between long gaps in between albums and a very muted reception to 2021’s Solar Power, she has not turned into either the undisputed public star that Taylor Swift has, or the unstoppably acclaimed ingenue Billie Eilish has, both of whom are near-consistent locks for this category. Virgin was seen by many as a return to form, and especially when coupled with her sensational collaboration with last year’s darling Charli XCX, makes her a viable contender for this award yet again, but the lack of a real hit single or moment from it prevents her from being a shoo-in.
Who Believes In Angels? // Elton John & Brandi Carlile
These days, as the Recording Academy strives to get younger, more diverse, and more “current,” most automatic write-ins tend to be the younger, more widespread popular stars. That fact is pretty much the only thing preventing me from naming this album a lock. The Grammys’ recent love affair with Brandi Carlile is well-documented, as its appreciation of cross-generational/cross-genre albums (see: Lady Gaga and Tony Bennett). Given the entire music industry’s adoration of Elton John and the recognition that his performing and songwriting days are both close to being behind him, it’s not hard for me to imagine this duo playing a big part at the 2026 Grammys.
Longshots
I quit // HAIM
Perhaps it's underselling HAIM to label them a longshot: after all, they were one-time Best New Artist nominees, and their last release landed them a Album of the Year nod. In actuality, though, those facts are mostly why I'm even considering them a candidate in the first place. They're well-respected in music circles, but still not a particularly huge name, and I quit was nowhere near as well-received by critics or the masses as 2020's Women in Music was.
KPop Demon Hunters (Soundtrack from the Netflix Film) // Various artists
Wicked: The Soundtrack // Various artists
It's been 7 years since a film soundtrack was nominated for Album of the Year, and even though it used to be a fairly standard occurrence, Black Panther in 2018 was only the 2nd example of it in the 21st century (the other being the 2001 winner, the soundtrack to O Brother, Where Art Thou?). That is why I find it unlikely the trend will be bucked this year, but if it is going to be, there are two very viable candidates to do so. Wicked was one of the biggest movie sensations of late 2024, and K-Pop Demon Hunters of 2025, and considering the central role music plays in each film, as well as the devoted fanbase each has cultivated, the Recording Academy may sense some cross-promotion opportunity here.
A Matter of Time // Laufey
Laufey has cultivated an ardent fanbase and garnered a large amount of praise in her relatively young career, and it's not at all out of the question that admirers of hers could be with in the voting body as well. I fear she just might still be a little too niche to be a safe bet at being nominated for any Grammys, let alone the biggest of them all.
You'll Be Alright, Kid // Alex Warren
If you've never heard of Alex Warren, you're far from alone, but would it shock you to learn that he had one of the biggest songs of the entire year? Yep, the faux-worship-song-come-wedding-croon "Ordinary" blew up on social media this year, launching the former full-time influencer into mainstream fame. It's unlikely he has widespread sway or recognition within the Recording Academy already, even with that song, but it's not at all unlike them in recent years to throw a bone to the 'social media song' du jour, nor for a young artist to ride a smash debut single to bigger nominations beyond.
Prediction Time
Before I get into my predictions, a quick reminder that, in another reversion to pre-pandemic times, the Grammys announced last year that they are back to 8 nominees for the General categories, after tinkering with as many as 10 for a few years. In 2019, they had just expanded from 5 to 8, and that was presumably to allow them to include and accomodate a wider variety of genres-- though that was also the thought behind the Oscars expanding their Best Picture field, and that change has mostly seen a higher number of the same kind of nominees.
To be fair to the Grammys, an award show that I've lambasted year after year, we're coming off one of the best years for it ever, so optimism abounds that not only will they continue to be good at recognizing artists from all corners for the biggest ones of the night, but they might even make the right decision within those categories now and then! In the other ceremonies this half-decade, though, we got a predictable night full of essentially one winner and one winner only (Billie Eilish), then a year where the biggest star (Taylor Swift) won among an almost incomprehensibly bizarre field of nominees, then a year with a stunning and confusing winner for Album of the Year (Jon Batiste), then two years of somewhat of a reversion to the mean, where absolutely star-studded fields yielded an agreeable but wholly underwhelming winner (Harry Styles in 2023, then Taylor Swift again this year). I say this not to predict that a night full of Beyoncés and Kendricks and Chappells won't ever happen again, just to serve as a reminder that as often the Grammys have the capability to surprise, they also have the capacity to disappoint.
I really don't know what direction to go in this year. My "automatic bid per genre" theory has sort of panned out, with Rap, Hip/Hop, Country, Pop, R&B, Rock, Indie-Folk and even Disco all represented in the Album of the Year field the last few years. However, many of the individual nominees-- not as much this past year, but certainly in the two years preceding --I would not have seen coming, and a couple I very much expected to see were not among them. There's also the fact that the nominees in the era of an expanded field have tended to be diverse not just in genre, but in race, gender and age. That you can have Tony Bennett, Li'l Nas X, Olivia Rodrigo, Kendrick Lamar, Beyoncé, Brandi Carlile, ABBA, Jacob Collier, Charli XCX, Bad Bunny, and Billie Eilish all included in a two-year span means that just about any of the nominees listed in this article aren't out of the question.
This is a race unlike any other in recent memory, because quite frankly, it just wasn't a particularly stellar year for music. 2024 was a year unlike any I'd ever seen, and as such the Album of the Year field was perhaps the most loaded I can recall (so loaded, in fact, that it didn't have room for my top album of the year). 2025? Waaaaaay fewer big name artists releasing projects, way fewer critically-acclaimed and paradigm-shifting releases, and as such, way less of a sure thing for the most anticipated race of the year. Where last year I could basically seed out the entire field right away by just looking at the big names and/or buzzy 'moments' in contention, this time around I generally don't know in which direction to go after my surefire contenders.
I suppose that's the best place to start, then: Bad Bunny and Kendrick are in. Of that I feel at least 90% confident. The two that I'm next-most confident in beyond those two are probably the two other biggest names in contention for this cycle, Lady Gaga and The Weeknd. Their absences from this category (at least as solo artists) in the entire last decade makes that a bit of a risk, but I think Gaga's return to her Pop throne The Weeknd's return to Grammy good graces, and the relative void of familiar names in the running this year offset that risk.
The only other one I feel fairly confident about is the collab album between Brandi Carlile and Elton John; the Grammys have shown a proclivity for loving these cross-generational albums-- Alison Krauss & Robert Plant, Lady Gaga & Tony Bennett, etc. -- as well as a proclivity for loving Brandi Carlile. For the remaining 3 spots, though, is where we get into "total guess" territory.
I suppose Sabrina Carpenter is probably the safest bet, as the big winner in the Pop categories last year, and still in the midst of a hugely successful tour. But I don't know, I can't shake this feeling that there's a chance it's too much too soon. If she hadn't JUST been a huge part of the Grammys this very calendar year, and/or Man's Best Friend was met by more universally positive reviews, I'd be more comfortable predicting her, but she was, and it wasn't. Meanwhile, what is primed to be a fantastic contest for Best Rap Album would suggest multiple contenders from the Hip-Hop lane in this field, too, and perhaps Clipse or especially Tyler the Creator has enough recognition and stored-up goodwill to finally break through to the major categories. but you have to keep in mind, these fields are seeded by every voter in the Academy, not just the "Rap genre" voters, and I'm just skeptical that anybody else besides Kendrick Lamar has work that ' the majority of the voting body is actually familiar with, unless you're counting The Weeknd and Bad Bunny as hip-hop (those voters probably will).
So, I'm going to go against more favored picks for the last few spots, and first tab a couple previous nominees, Coldplay and Lorde. Their nominations would likely be surprises to many, as Lorde's Virgin came and went almost as quietly as her last (wholly ignored by the Grammys) album Solar Power did, but this one was much better received than its predecessor, and marked an exciting return to the public eye for the beloved but enigmatic and reticent pop star. Moon Music, meanwhile, wasn't good (remember, I can say that!! I put in years of being a Coldplay fan!!), but neither was its predecessor, and that one got nominated in a considerably stronger year for music. Chris Martin is widely beloved, and amongst a soft field such as this, Coldplay's sheer star power all these years later, will be hard to ignore. And finally, if you always keep up with this piece, you'll know I often predict that someone from my "Longshots" tier will sneak in, and that I also like to predict at least one Best New Artist nominee doubling up in this category. In that regard, I'm going with Alex Warren's record; the former TikTok influencer has a genuine shot in each of the Big 4 categories on the back, ironically, of his lead single's strength in TikTok numbers. If you want a nod to the younger generation while keeping it "safe for TV" and picking the most white-bread artist you could imagine, he's your guy.
So if you've lost track- my final prediction, in alphabetical order, is:
DeBÍ TIRAR MáS FOToS // Bad Bunny
GNX // Kendrick Lamar
Hurry Up Tomorrow // The Weeknd
Mayhem // Lady Gaga
Moon Music // Coldplay
Virgin // Lorde
Who Believes In Angels? // Elton John & Brandi Carlile
You'll Be Alright, Kid // Alex Warren
The following just missed my cut, and if nominated, should be considered in the tier of "Gahhhh, I knew I should have predicted that":
Man's Best Friend // Sabrina Carpenter
Swag // Justin Bieber
Something Beautiful // Miley Cyrus
CHROMAKOPIA // Tyler, the Creator
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