Premier League Predictions, Week 18

© Micah Veldkamp, 2025

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Welcome back to the weekly predictions, Premier League fans, and Happy Christmakwanzaa! We've arrived at the last weekend of 2025, believe it or not, and the last 'week gap' between matchdays for some time now.

I continued to sputter in my last time out, lest you can't remember anything pre-Christmas. My predictions of a big Manchester City win came true, and perfectly guessing Arsenal's 1-0 scoreline over Everton got me a little bonus. But I didn't give enough credit to Aston Villa or Liverpool, who beat Manchester United and Tottenham respectively, rather than drawing, nor to Chelsea, who managed to get a point off of Newcastle. My 2.5/5 week, brought me to a season total of 41/62.

But, the matches are mere hours from kicking off, so let's not waste any more time pointing out our flaws. Here are your 5 for Week 18!

Manchester United vs. Newcastle United

For the second consecutive week, Newcastle comes up against an opponent they would like to consider a peer in the top tier, but rather have more recently been mainstays in the 'tier below.' Last week, it was Chelsea, whom they held to a draw at St. James' park, but this afternoon they travel slightly south to Old Trafford, to take on a Manchester United side who finally slipped out of the European places with a home loss to Aston Villa. These two combined for 1 point in their tricky fixtures from last week when I predicted they'd combine for 4, and as such, will both be hunting for a crucial 3 points to reignite their Top 4 push. This is another match where genuinely no result would surprise me, but I think the Friday night home crowd plus the desire to rebound from a loss will spur United on more.

The Pick: Man United, 2-1

Liverpool vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers

Are Liverpool, at long last, "back"? Their string of results would suggest it, even if their form wouldn't-- they were once again far from their best last Saturday at Tottenham, ironically especially after going up 2 goals AND 2 men, but the victory did mark 3 straight in all competitions, and their first 6-match unbeaten streak since the opening stretch of the season. They're tied for a Top 4 place now, and will sense a real opportunity to be in that coveted 4th place spot at year-end as they host the league's worst team tomorrow. I do struggle to see anything but a Liverpool win at Anfield here, but I sense it will not be nearly as routine as most would expect: while still losing almost every match, Wolves have played notably better in recent weeks, the Reds will be quite shorthanded, and what's more, this is bound to be a complex emotional match with the legacy the late Diogo Jota left at both clubs heavy on the hearts of all players.

The Pick: Liverpool, 2-1

Nottingham Forest vs. Manchester City

Not only are Manchester City on a run of 7 straight wins in all competitions, they've outscored their opponents 13-1 in the last 5. Is this Pep Guardiola's best team? No. Are they even on the levels of the previous champions in the 'Erling Haaland Era' of Man City? Probably not. Are they good enough to win the title this season? Absolutely. They'll head to Nottingham with that goal still in mind, where they'll face a Forest side who have been noticeably improved under Sean Dyche. Dyche's brand was built to keep disadvantaged teams out of the relegation zone, and his new side have done well to create some distance between themselves and the dreaded bottom 3. I think they will confound Guardiola and Haaland and co. for a good bit of the match tomorrow, but just don't have quite enough to walk away with a point.

The Pick: Man City, 2-1

Arsenal vs. Brighton & Hove Albion

Arsenal's tough stretch continued with two more victories that were far more difficult than expected: an ugly 1-0 decision at Everton and a PK shootout triumph in the League Cup against a shorthanded Crystal Palace on Tuesday. But hey, wins are wins, and when you're safeguarding a shrinking lead atop the table, that's all the Gunners will care about right now. Brighton, who less than a fortnight ago were in the Top 4, on paper represent a sterner test than any of Arsenal's last 4 opponents (Club Brugge in the Champions League and Wolverhampton preceded last weekend's trip to Everton). But between the Gulls' current form-- just 2 points from their last 12 --and their proclivity for coming up short in the biggest games, I get the sense we might see an Arsenal victory that's actually easier than expected tomorrow.

The Pick: Arsenal, 3-0

Chelsea vs. Aston Villa

To point out the main event this weekend is between the league's 3rd and 4th placed teams slightly oversells the competitiveness of the race; 3rd-place Aston Villa sit 7 points ahead of 4th-place Chelsea currently, and by contrast trail league leaders Arsenal by just 3. That said, there's no doubt this is still a huge match for both sides, a chance for Villa to solidify they are real-life, undeniable title contenders, or for Chelsea to restate their title race intentions and leap fully back in the Top 4 race. As mentioned in the outset, I underestimated both these sides in their big games last week; in a reverse of my Man United-Newcastle projections, these two combined for 4 points when I thought they would total 1. The comparisons in form end there, though: Unai Emery's men are on a torrid 10-match winning streak; tomorrow's hosts have earned just 6 points from their last 15 and have a solitary win since Thanksgiving. Can Villa's red-hot streak continue? Against a wildly talented but far-from-consistent Chelsea team, absolutely. But a high-ceiling Chelsea, playing at home and sitting on the Top 4 cut line at year-end, also could absolutely win this match. I could see this falling either way, but I actually think the most likely outcome is an exciting, hard-fought draw.

The Pick: Draw, 2-2