The Couch Power 10, Champ. Week
- Daniel Woodiwiss
- 4 days ago
- 8 min read
Well, folks? We made it. Another Thanksgiving done and dusted, and that means another college football regular season in the books. It's hardly believable, but indeed, we're here again, with only the conference championships this weekend separating us from bowl season. Well, those and, of course, Sunday's playoff field announcement.
And boy, what an anticipated announcement it will be. I'd reckon there are about 4 teams that feel absolutely safe right now, but given the logjam of 1-loss teams and "strong 2-loss" teams, there's gonna be a whooooole lot of sweatin' goin' on Sunday morning, and that playoff committee (who release their final rankings tonight) is bound to have a late night. In case you may have missed the football while still in your Thanksgiving-induced food coma, I'll catch you up.
Truthfully, it was a less eventful rivalry weekend than we've often had in years past. On Black Friday, Georgia edged Georgia Tech in an ugly game that served mostly as a battle of pride for Tech after they threw away their playoff chances the week prior. Later that night, # 3 Texas A&M finally suffered their first loss of the season at hated rivals Texas, in a game whose ramifications weren't too great unless you give credence to Texas fans' and coaches' "we belong in the playoff!!!" cries (I don't, and no they don't). On Saturday, the three all-ranked affairs all turned one-sided: Ohio State kept their hold on the top spot by strangling rivals Michigan and officially ending the Wolverines' playoff hopes, and Miami and Vanderbilt kept their slim and slimmer bubble alive by blasting rivals Pitt and Tennessee, respectively. Indeed, most of what affected the upcoming playoff field transpired in games that got little attention last weekend.
For example: San Diego State's overtime loss at New Mexico and Boise State's last-minute touchdown at Utah State knocked the Aztecs out of the Mountain West championship and probably eliminated the Mountain West from playoff contention. Oklahoma hosted a lame-duck, losing-record LSU team in their home finale and came one late touchdown bomb away from losing to them and officially sinking their own playoff hopes. And later in the night, Virginia secured their spot in the ACC championship with a win, but SMU ran into trouble at Cal and couldn't do the same, leaving Virginia's championship foe.... that's right, 7-5 Duke. Why is that pertinent? Because what if Duke....wins? The 8-5 ACC champion would almost surely not be ranked, but we've got 5 spots in the field for conference champions, making two bids for "Group of Five" teams a distinct possibility.
For the last time this season: let chaos reign!!!
One last time, in case it needs to be said: this is not a definitive ranking on how good the teams are, or on who I think will be/deserves to be in the playoff next week. Rather, it's more of a "What if preseason rankings and bigwig bias didn't predetermine the top teams" kind of thing, an ideal ranking of the country's teams based on what they've actually proved on the field to date. Don't be mad cuz I'm doin' me better than you doin' you:
1. Ohio State
The reigning champions officially went wire-to-wire (in the Couch Power 10, at least) as the top team in the country, bookending their regular season with high-profile wins. This was not the strongest Michigan team, but it was one playing for an outside shot at the playoff and in front of a record home crowd, so it must have felt especially sweet for the Buckeyes to get their first win over their rivals in 6 years. Next up? Oh, just a casual # 1 vs. # 2 matchup in the Big Ten Championship,
2. Indiana
It's been a foregone conclusion since escaping Penn State with a win-- they were never going to lose to Wisconsin or Purdue --but it's still surreal to see Indiana complete a perfect season and head into the Big Ten Championship at # 2, with a chance to clinch the top seed overall. Even with all they've accomplished in the last two years (a 23-2 record, for example, with the sole losses coming to last year's national championship teams), they have their skeptics, which means they're in an interesting spot on Saturday night. Nobody will fault them too much for losing to Ohio State, but lose badly, and skepticism over "how good they REALLY are" could grow to the point where they lose a first-round bye altogether.
3. Georgia
With their spot in the playoff secured, and their spot in the SEC championship dictated only by whether Texas A&M would win their game later on, the most Georgia was likely hoping to get out of their rivalry clash with Georgia Tech was a win in which they continued to look as good as they had become in recent weeks. They got...some of that. It was a win, and yet another one over a ranked team, but it was an ugly slobber-knocker of a game that felt more like the kind of win the Dawgs were grinding out a lot in the first half of the season. Thanks to A&M's loss, Kirby Smart now gets another week to work with this team, but they'll have to be a whole lot better this weekend if they want to avenge their only loss and repeat as SEC champions.
4. Ole Miss
Nothing sums up the bizarre new reality of college football quite like Ole Miss completing their best regular season in history with a dominant win in the Egg Bowl, solidifying a playoff spot, and then seeing their head coach skip town to coach their rivals before the playoffs even begin. Credit to the Rebels, who have kept their heads well amidst the messy divorce with Lane Kiffin. Depending on how the conference championships results go, there's a chance they might sneak all the way up to a first-round bye, but even if they don't, they'll surely host a game at home in Oxford with interim coach Pete Golding, and if they don't miss a beat, they'll be a tough out for anyone.
5. Texas Tech
It seems like a funny thing to say about a team who's ranked in the Top 5 and is practically guaranteed a first-round bye with a win on Saturday, but people might actually be sleeping on how good this Texas Tech team is. They've dominated statistically on both sides of the ball throughout this season, beat Top 15 teams BYU and Utah by a combined 23 points, their average margin of victory is approximately 92 points, and their sole loss came in the final seconds at reigning conference champions Arizona State without their starting QB at their disposal. As such, they are surely in the playoff field either way; but with a first-ever Big 12 title and first-round bye in the playoff at stake, you know they would love to leave no doubt with a win...
6. BYU
...but it won't be easy for them. If people are sleeping on Texas Tech, they (including the playoff committee) are criminally sleeping on BYU, who gets their second chance at Texas Tech in the Big 12 title. The Cougars' trip to Lubbock didn't go well, as they suffered their sole loss of the season. But apparently, that one loss to a Top 4 team is enough for the committee to, as it stands, shut the team completely out of the playoff altogether, which is absurd given that this team has won every other game they've played-- including over # 15 Utah --and own the 6th-best "strength of record" in the land. They can secure their deserved spot in the postseason with a revenge win on Saturday, of course, but even if they lose, if they're left out for losing to one (very good) team all year? Hard to see how that won't leave a bad taste in most people's mouths.
7. Texas A&M
I was a bigtime believer in A&M for most of this season, and in their defense, rivals Texas arguably had more to play for in last Friday's clash than they did. Still, the nature of their loss in Austin, coupled with a re-examination of a lot of their wins that felt big at the time, has me a little unsure of what to make of the Aggies. Given Auburn, South Carolina and LSU's steep declines (and Missouri's subtle one), that early-season win at Notre Dame is suddenly doing a ton of heavy lifting. They still own a Top 3 strength of record in the country, and will undoubtedly still be a playoff team-- and a tough out, at that --but it's reasonable to wonder just how battle-tested they're going to be going into that first playoff game. In that regard, it might be better for them to fall out of the Top 4 and get an extra game at home rather than sit at home with a first-round bye.
8. Oregon
Oregon was soundly beaten at home by Indiana at October, and there's a significant dropoff in quality from the Hoosiers to anybody else the Ducks played all year. Still, closing the season with 3 wins at Iowa, at Washington, and vs. USC to solidify an 11-1 season is an impressive feat for Dan Lanning and co., even before taking into account how young this team is. They missed out on the chance to repeat as Big Ten champions, but still sit poised to perhaps snag a first-round bye if there's an upset in one or both of the Big 12 or SEC championship.
9. Oklahoma
Oklahoma's sort of the anti-BYU, which is ironic, given that they're likely in the field while the Cougars are likely out: they have the resumé, but hardly pass the eye test at all, evidenced by Saturday's Houdini act against a down and out LSU team. As unreliable as their offense is, though, they boast one of the best defenses in America, and other than the fact that they lost 2 games, there are very few nits to pick with their body of work. Those losses came to rivals Texas sans their starting QB, and by 2 points to Ole Miss, and they own decent wins over Missouri and Tennessee, and very impressive wins over Alabama and Michigan. This is the epitome of a team that could just as likely make a deep run in the playoffs as they could lose in the 1st round, all depending on how the offense plays.
10. Miami
Unless the committee do something truly shocking tonight, Miami are poised to be one of the first teams out of the playoff for the 2nd consecutive season. Should they be? Well, yes and no. On the one hand-- also for the 2nd consecutive season --they missed out on the ACC Championship because of two inexplicable losses to teams they should have beaten, and they do own just two wins over a team currently ranked (and one of them Pitt, will probably fall out of the rankings given the 31-point beatdown the 'Canes put on them). On the other hand, neither loss was all that bad-- by a combined 3 points in regulation to decent Louisville and SMU teams --and they own the head-to-head over Notre Dame (ranked ahead of them) and a win over the Florida State team that manhandled Alabama (ranked ahead of them). Will I feel bad for them if/when they are left out again? No. Do I think they deserve to be in a 12-team field? Yes.
Just missed: Alabama, Notre Dame, Vanderbilt, James Madison, North Texas, Drake Maye
The Playoff Picture according to The Couch:
(5) Texas Tech v (12) North Texas
(6) BYU v (11) James Madison
(7) Texas A&M v (10) Miami
(8) Oregon v (9) Oklahoma
ROSE BOWL: (1) Ohio State v ORE/OU winner
ORANGE BOWL: (2) Indiana v A&M/MIA winner
SUGAR BOWL: (3) Georgia v BYU/JMU winner
COTTON BOWL: (4) Ole Miss v TT/UNT winner
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