The Nominees: Best New Artist

Addison Rae has been a household name for Gen Z since pre-COVID times, but 2025 marked her breakout in the music scene. Can she add a coveted Best New Artist Grammy to her unstoppable rise?

You’d be forgiven if you didn't know that the Grammys were happening just two weeks from today. After all, we're in the thick of awards season for movies and TV, and with the Golden Globes taking place just a week ago, the Oscar nomination announcement coming this week, and just about every other major awards shows in between, it's easy to forget music has their big show amidst this stretch as well! Plus, if you're uber-immersed in capital c "Culture" the way I am, you know we've also got the Super Bowl fast approaching, the college football championship tomorrow night, the return of Saturday Night Live last night, and a new season of Shrinking arriving soon! But yes; we are fast approaching “Music’s biggest night,” as the Grammys like to bill themselves, and as such, we will take the next couple weeks to do an overview of the biggest awards of the night, culminating in a general predictions piece on the day of the ceremony. First one up: Best New Artist!

A reminder, first of all, that while for many decades, each of the General Awards had fields of 5 nominees, in recent years, we saw those fields expanded to 8, and then to 10, but in the wake of fairly negative reaction to the increased growth, announced last year they were returning to 8 for the foreseeable future.

Best New Artist is one of the most fascinating awards of the night, in part because of its track record, in part because of its criteria. The award has featured many famous winners, such as The Beatles, Crosby Stills & Nash, Cyndi Lauper, Mariah Carey, Alicia Keys, Maroon 5, Adele, Chance the Rapper, Dua Lipa, Billie Eilish, and Olivia Rodrigo. It also has featured some major headscratchers, such as Macklemore beating the likes of Kendrick Lamar and Kacey Musgraves, Esperanza Spalding winning over a field that included Drake and Justin Bieber, Alessia Cara over SZA, and Meghan Trainor...well, just Meghan Trainor. Perhaps relatedly to the second point, there even is a "Best New Artist curse" that is often discussed, only half-jokingly, about the surprisingly common trend of breakout artists who win the award immediately fading back from the public view, never to really make much of an impact on the music scene again. Notably, however, that curse seems to have been broken in recent years. It somewhat remains to be seen how things will pan out for recent surprise winners Samara Joy and Victoria Monét, but the five other winners of the award in the 2020s are: Dua Lipa, Billie Eilish, Megan Thee Stallion, Olivia Rodrigo, and reigning winner Chappell Roan. I'd say those women have done alright for themselves, no?

The award for Best New Artist also generates buzz just about every year because it isn't ever really clear to anyone who isn't in the Recording Academy just what a new artist is. The official guidelines for the award have changed numerous times over the years, but one thing that has stayed consistent, at least in my lifetime, is that there is no real consistency. You can get a selection of nominees some years-- such as this year! --that have a range of 1 album to 4+ albums. The latest official guidelines for the award, according to the Academy, are as follows: "For a new artist who releases, during the Eligibility Year, the first recording which establishes the public identity of that artist." So uh, yeah. Clear as mud? Cool.

All that being said, here are this year's nominees, in order from least to most likely to win, according to odds from GoldDerby.com.

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The Marías

Odds: 1.2%

Active Since: 2016

Most Likely Nominated For:

Their singles "Back To Me" and "Ojos Tristes"

Biggest Song: "No One Noticed"

The Marías are this year's equivalent of 2025 nominees Khruangbin. By that I mean, it seems that just about every year, there's a nominee that causes people to say "why are THEY nominated, in the year of our lord (x)???" and like Khruangbin before them, The Marías are that nominee. It's not that people don't like The Marías; quite the opposite, in fact. The group from L.A. has earned quite a devoted fanbase, in fact. It's more the fact that the "new artist" moniker feels awfully ironic, considering they have been around since Obama was in office. This is where I make my case that this particular Grammy should be renamed to best "Breakthrough" Artist: the indie dream-pop group may have formed in 2016 and released their first singles and EP in 2017, and have cultivated a loyal fanbase of musicheads in their years in the industry, but it was their most recent album in 2024 and recent collaborations with Bad Bunny that got them more national (and international) attention, and a successful tour and ensuing singles that pushed that attention into more of the mainstream in 2025. With how many big names in the world of Pop fill this category this year, it's not a shock they're a longshot. And yet, don't underestimate that longevity in the music world + the groundswell of support they've built in that time; one could argue that was the thing that pushed 2024 winner Victoria Monét to the top.

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sombr

Odds: 1.65%

Active Since: 2023

Most Likely Nominated For:

His album I Barely Know Her

Biggest Song: "back to friends"

Shane Michael Boose, more commonly known as sombr, is only 20 years old but undeniably has had music flowing through his veins for years now, dropping out of the prestigious LaGuardia School for the Arts in 2022 to begin writing and releasing music full-time. The indie rock/pop artist released his debut album late summer 2025 on the back of the success of singles "undressed" and "back to friends," which had both found serious airplay on TikTok, and his social media clout only grew with the album and its lead single "12 to 12." Doing the 'Late Night' and music awards show rounds late last year, he proved himself as an electric performer too, an exciting young talent to watch for the future. In a generation of men that has struggled to yield a true popstar, his unique lane and showman reputation might make him a compelling pick for Best New Artist, even amongst a crowd of more mainstream names.

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Alex Warren

Odds: 1.8%

Active Since: 2022

Most Likely Nominated For:

His album You'll Be Alright, Kid, especially lead single "Ordinary"

Biggest Song: "Ordinary"

I mentioned sombr's popularity on TikTok, and there's no question the social media platform is increasingly a vehicle for musicians to find success, and that's been true of many Best New Artist nominees in recent years. But interestingly enough, Alex Warren is one of two New Artist nominees that actually got their start on TikTok. Warren (full name Alex Warren Hughes) formed a social media presence as early as age 10 and was a co-founder of the famous-- or infamous, depending on who you ask -- "Hype House," a collective of various TikTok stars. In 2022, though, he left the Hype House and also pivoted away from his online video content career to instead strike out on a music career. 2024 saw him reach some radio success, charting for the first time with 3 different singles, but 2025 was his huge breakthrough: his single "Ordinary," an homage to his wife written for their wedding, blew up almost immediately online and went on to be the forerunner for a successful debut album release last summer with You'll Be Alright, Kid. The single topped charts across the World, and a successful album debut gave way to a successful arena tour and multiple awards show nominations. The sheer omnipresence of "Ordinary" makes Warren a strong contender in this category, but honestly so does his career trajectory; TikTok has completely revolutionized the music industry, and if a forward-thinking Academy wants to acknowledge this fact and simultaneously recognize one of the year's biggest breakouts, they have an easy option.

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KATSEYE

Odds: 2.1%

Active Since: 2024

Most Likely Nominated For:

Their EP Beautiful Chaos

Biggest Song: "Gabriela"

Girl groups are no strangers to the Grammys, and in many ways, they're making a big comeback in the music scene in general. But KATSEYE is no ordinary girl group! Made up of 5 different women from 4 different countries, they span nationalities, and this is evident in their music, which effectively blends Hyperpop, K-Pop and more traditional Pop. KATSEYE got their start through the reality competition series Dream Academy, and saw a rapide rise thanks to Netflix's 2024 documentary of their auditions, formation, and processes. Their first EP SIS made some waves in late 2024, but it was lead single "Gnarly" that got their first U.S. breakthrough in early 2025, and ensuing singles "Gabriela" and "Gameboy" only built on that breakthrough, culminating in a second EP, Beautiful Chaos, that landed at # 4 in the U.S. upon release. They have the star power that all the favorites for this award lay claim to as well, but possess a unique global and genre appeal that could very well see them catapult to an upset win in a couple weeks.

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Lola Young

Odds: 3.5%

Active Since: 2019

Most Likely Nominated For:

Her album I'm Only F*cking Myself and single "Messy"

Biggest Song: "Messy"

Lola Young actually first made her mark on the music scene as 16-year old, winning the open mic competition "Open Mic UK," and then reaching the finals of British talent show Got What It Takes? It was 2023, though, that saw Young release her debut album and place a single on the UK charts for the first time, with "Conceited." A 2024 album This Wasn't Meant For You Anyway followed, and although that album didn't make much noise initially, its single "Messy" blew up in late 2024/early 2025, finding an enormous audience on TikTok, and leading to Young's first-ever # 1 single. This set her on a talk-show/awards show circuit mainstay trajectory, and even MORE music came, with a third album in three years, and ensuing charting singles "One Thing," "Dealer" and "spiders" from it. Her unique brand of Pop hearkens back to other British Grammy beloveds like Duffy, Amy Winehouse and even Adele, so there's no question she'll find fans among the voting body. What's more, after a year in which her mental health struggle was well-documented, to the point she felt the need to cancel her tour, a win in this category would carry a significant emotional poignancy that no other nominees would.

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Addison Rae

Odds: 7.51%

Active Since: 2021

Likely Nominated For:

Her album Addison

Biggest Song: "Diet Pepsi"

I talked about one "TikTok Star turned Pop star"... how about the other? When I first heard Addison Rae, full name Addison Rae Easterling, was making music, I was quizzical, because even I (a never-before TikTok user) was fully aware of who she was as a result of her social media influencer career. A part of the aforementioned "Hype House," she amassed an enormous online following, largely through dance videos to trending songs. Some roles in minor films followed, as did a negatively-received single "Obsessed" in 2021, but up until 2023, the online space remained Rae's lane. Then in late 2023 came the surprise release of her EP AR, which was met with largely positive reviews, and in early 2024, Addison got her big break as Charli XCX took her under her wing, featuring her on songs in the brat remix album, as well as on producer A.G. Cook's album. By the beginning of the following year, she was releasing "Diet Pepsi"-- her biggest song yet--being announced as the opener on Lana del Rey's tour, following up with successful summer hits "Headphones On" and "Fame Is A Gun," and their album, Addison, which soared to Top 10 year-end lists of multiple music outlets. Addison's musical style may be totally different than Alex Warren's, but otherwise, the exact argument I made for him has to apply here, too: if the Recording Academy is ready to acknowledge a bona fide "TikTok musician," this is the year, and perhaps the biggest star the social media platform has ever produced a natural winner in that case.

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Leon Thomas

Odds: 13.66%

Active Since: 2013

Most Likely Nominated For:

His album MUTT

Biggest Song: "MUTT"

A common theme of this Best New Artist field is "finally getting their recognition after having been in the game for a while," which feels sort of fitting for the nature of the award! Or at least for my alternatively-suggested Best Breakthrough Artist. But no nominee epitomizes that dynamic more than Leon Thomas, who began transitioning from being a child actor to a bona fide music career over a decade ago. Initial singles, mixtapes, and EPs didn't put him on the radar much as an artist, but his contributions as a songwriter and a producer were massive; some of his collaborators include Drake, Ariana Grande, SZA, Rick Ross, Ty Dolla $ign, and the 2024 winner of this award, Victoria Monét. After his full-length debut in 2023, Thomas followed up in September 2024 with sophomore album MUTT, and perhaps as a result of the sheer amount of time spent in the industry, this marked his real breakthrough as an artist, placing in the Top 40 on the U.S. charts, and its lead single peaking in the Top 5. MUTT is also nominated for Album of the Year, and Thomas himself nominated for 5 other awards in total besides this one. That fact makes him an extremely formidable contender in this race, as does his years in the industry, and his status as the sole R&B/hip-hop nominee of the bunch.

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Olivia Dean

Odds: 68.32%

Active Since: 2019

Most Likely Nominated For:

Her singles "Nice To Each Other", "Man I Need", and "So Easy (To Fall In Love)"

Biggest Song: "Man I Need"

This is a field that, like last year's, includes a lot of names that made a big splash in the last year specifically, as you might guess. Unlike last year's, though, which featured two mega-watt stars in Sabrina Carpenter and eventual winner Chappell Roan, there hasn't been a clear and obvious favorite for most of 2025. It was a race, in other words, that was wide open for one contender to make a statement with a smash hit, and in the last quarter of the year, Olivia Dean did just that. The English singer, who sounds a little like a peppier Adele or a less-tortured Winehouse, has had a small but devoted following for a while now, but 2025 was a huge year for her, dropping increasingly successful singles until the latest one, "Man I Need," went nuclear, online and on the radio. The single topped the charts in 4 different countries, and was perhaps the biggest song in the U.S. over the last quarter of 2025. The release of her second album The Art of Loving actually came just a couple weeks late for eligibility at these Grammys, but given its universal acclaim and the success of its lead single, is already an early contender for Album of the Year next year. The makeup of the Recording Academy may have changed a lot in recent years, but-- especially when it comes to the major awards like this one --two things still tend to win the day much more often than not: 1. sheer popularity, and 2. cross-generational appeal. Olivia Dean's old-school vocals and charm, and the star potential she's shown with this year's album and its breakout single, make her an obvious frontrunner in a couple weeks.