5 Premier League Preseason Predictions: A Midseason Check-in

Way back in August, with the dawn of a new Premier League season upon us, I offered 5 bold takes on how the 2025-26 season would transpire. We're into the new year and actually a little bit over the halfway point, and as the league pauses this weekend for FA Cup matches, I figured it would be a nice time to pop in and see just how well and how poorly these predictions are aging:

1. One of last year's Top 4 will win the league... but it won't be Liverpool.

My August logic:

"The flip side of Liverpool's big transfer moves is a rare circumstance in which we have a reigning champion that we actually know very little about! There is, of course, plenty of reason for Liverpool fans to be excited and optimistic about this new-look side, but there is so much unknown: how will all the new parts gel? Have the new signings actually satisfied all the Reds' depth concerns, or will the departures of pieces like Luis Díaz, Darwin Núñez, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Caoimhin Kelleher, and Jarrell Quansah hurt more than they're expected to? Is manager Arne Slot changing the system to better match the new personnel, and if so, how long will it take the team to buy in to the new system? And sadly, perhaps the biggest unknown of all has nothing to do with transfer business: how will the tragic death of their teammate Diogo Jota affect the team this season? Anyone who has grieved the loss of someone close to them will know that grief is both persistent and not linear, and it's reasonable to anticipate some emotional whiplash for the Liverpool squad this season. Furthermore, predicting "the field" over the favorite is less bold when there are very viable contenders in that field, and in Arsenal, City and Chelsea, there are very viable contenders. Yes, the latter two were miles off of the title charge last season but they both hit their stride in the closing months, and did some shrewd offseason business. City will enjoy the return of Ballon d'Or winner Rodri who was a massive miss in their midfield last season, and Chelsea showed through their Europa Conference League and especially Club World Cup triumphs that their ceiling is as high as anyone's. Arsenal, three time runners-up now, are so accustomed to "close, but not quite" that it's become a meme among Premier League fans, but the fact of the matter is they're the only side in England that can boast being in the thick of the title race each of the least 3 seasons, and last year they remained in the conversation despite a ridiculous slew of injuries and no real viable option at striker, something they have addressed with the signing of Swedish goal machine Viktor Gyökeres."

How it's looking: Pretty much dead on!

There's a long way to go in the season, of course, and league leaders Arsenal have a smaller margin at the top than Liverpool did at this time last year. But perhaps the biggest storyline from the first half of the Premier League season was the shocking futility and inconsistency from reigning champions Liverpool, who underwent an October and November with a solitary win in both the Premier League and Champions League. The Reds have steadied the ship a little bit since the start of December, but are 14 points back from Arsenal, in a distant 4th place. All signs still point to the Gunners taking home the trophy this year, but their stiffest competition will surely be another Top 4 team last season: Manchester City, just 6 points behind with a fixture at the Etihad Stadium remaining. The only potential spoiler to my correct prediction (barring a truly shocking Liverpool comeback) is Aston Villa, who also sit just 6 points behind Arsenal, but-- good as this team as has been --I am skeptical they have the pieces to compete over the course of the season.

2. We will have a first-time Golden Boot winner.

My August logic:

"With the retirement of Jamie Vardy and Heung-Min Son's transfer from Tottenham to LAFC, Salah and Haaland are the only active players in the Premier League to have won this trophy, which means I'm essentially betting on the field over two players. And as great as those two players have been and figure to be again, there are both reasons to be skeptical they can replicate their peak, and plenty of intriguing alternatives should they fall short. Chelsea look a side that could be in the thick of the title race, and their young talisman Cole Palmer (who still finished with 15 goals despite a pretty poor '24-'25 season) could very well claim the throne, as could his new teammate João Pedro, who instantly became a menace in front of goal when he joined Chelsea for the Club World Cup. Fellow scoring title contenders Bryan Mbuemo, Chris Wood and Ollie Watkins still are likely to be the runaway goal providers for their respective teams, to a level that not even Salah nor Haaland may be any more, given their teams' transfer business. Then of course, there is the high possibility that last year's Golden Boot runner-up Isak joins Salah at Liverpool, in which case he would likely supplant him as the focus of the Reds' attack."

How it's looking: Pretty damn unlikely.

This has to be at least the third time I've done this piece in which I've made a prediction that underestimates Erling Haaland. Surely I'll learn my lesson next year, right? Yes, one season removed from his injury-affected worst statistical season at City, the big Norwegian is back and better than ever, bashing in a stunning 20 goals in 20 matches thus far. Yes, you're reading that correctly; a goal a game. He's insane. He's almost surely gonna win the Golden Boot for the third time and deny any first-time the opportunity. Now, allll of this being said, if he does slow down, or end up with another injury absence, etc., my prediction will almost surely come good, as Mohamed Salah is not gonna be in the equation (more on that in the bit). Brentford's Igor Thiago is also enjoying a monster season, with just 6 less goals than Haaland, and the man in 3rd place, Antoine Semenyo, just joined Manchester City, affording him an opportunity to steal goals off his new teammate. So the potential for spoilers are there, but don't get it twisted: this is Haaland's award to lose.

3. Crystal Palace are this year's "underdog that could."

My August logic:

"I thought this would be the case even before the Community Shield match, and regardless of the result, the way the match went about confirmed why I felt that way. Palace were every bit Liverpool's equal last Sunday, bettering the reigning champions in real goalscoring chances if not in possession. The Eagles are an incredibly well-drilled side under Oliver Glasner, with plenty of attacking pieces that are lethal on the counterattack. The latter holds true even after losing '23-'24 star Michael Olise to Bayern Munich before last season, and will remain true even if '24-'25 star Eberechi Eze departs for Arsenal or Tottenham Hotspur, as is rumored to be the likely outcome as of this writing. Despite the credentials of their managers, I am skeptical of Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa's ability to once again be a spoiler in the Champions League race, and frequent overachievers Brighton, Brentford and Bournemouth have seen their squads so ruthlessly picked apart this offseason that even another Top 10 finish would be an impressive acheivement. Who is best suited, then, to fill the vacuum of "overlooked club who punches above its weight all season and unexpectedly finds itself in the midst of a race for European football?" Give me a side with the profile of Crystal Palace all day every day, with a proven manager, bona fide talent in every position on the field, and two consecutive years of finishing the season very impressively."

How it's looking: It's complicated.

I'm not feeling too bad about this prediction. For a while there, it seemed like Crystal Palace were going to make me look like a savant! It wasn't all that long ago that they were sitting Top 4 in the league, Top 8 in the Europa Conference League, and in the quarterfinals in the League Cup. But a brutal December and January stretch has seen them win just two matches in all competitions since Thanksgiving weekend, and amidst a crowded table, tumble all the way down to 14th in the league. That said, it's an extremely crowded table once you get past the Top 3: only 7 points separate Palace from 4th-place Liverpool (who, it's worth mentioning, they already beat this season). As long as they hold on to manager Oliver Glasner and key pieces like Marc Guehi and Jean-Phillippe Mateta, there's plenty in play for them still.

4. Mohamed Salah will have his worst (statistical) season with Liverpool.

My August logic:

"Call it more of a pessimistic hunch than anything else. In the summer of 2022, amidst months of "will he?/won't he?", Salah signed a two-year contract extension, to the delight and relief of Liverpool fans who had just seen him complete a season in which he swept the league's Player of the Season, Golden Boot and Playmaker Awards. However, there was a noticeable fall-off from the Egyptian King in the closing months of that historic '21-'22 campaign, and that trend continued into a very uneven '22-'23 season with the Reds, the worst one yet for both player and club since he joined in 2017. It's hard not to see the parallels this time around: Salah puts together an incredible, record-breaking season, starring for a Liverpool side that's one of the best in the world, signs a two-year extension in the summer to the delight of Liverpool fans, but quietly was a no-show for the better part of March-May, and now enters a season having slumped to the finish line last time and leading a new-look attack. Now, it stands to reason that the Reds' attacking front will be much more potent this time than in fall 2022, wherein they tried to replace Sadio Mané with an unreliable Darwin Núñez and also had to deal with a long-term injury to Luis Díaz. But in fact, that only lends credence to my prediction: the additions of Ekitiké and Wirtz, and certainly the potential inclusion of Isak might result in a much more even load-sharing of goals than Liverpool have been used to in the Salah Era. Finally, Mo stays in tremendous shape and set the world on fire at 32, so it would be silly to act like he couldn't do it again at 33, but he is reaching the age where the fall-off can be cruelly swift, as Liverpool fans will know well from that disastrous '22-'23 season, which seemed to claim their entire aging midfield at once."

How it's looking: Unfortunately, like a very good take.

As a Liverpool die-hard whose favorite Liverpool player of all time very well might just be Mo Salah, this has been the saddest part of the Reds' frustrating season for me. Even when I was making my pessimistic prediction, I did not foresee just how bad it would get for The Egyptian King. Salah has looked a shell of himself this season, not only struggling to get on the stats sheet, but often struggling to even make an impact on the match, or to put away some of the easiest chances he'll ever see. In the 14 matches he's been a part of, he's got a midseason tally of just 7 goal involvements (4 goals, 3 assists). By contrast, on this date just last season, he had already banged in 18 goals and 13 assists in the league. So unreliable has his form been that it led to something happening that has never before happened in his Liverpool career: getting dropped from the starting lineup. This-- no doubt coupled with the continued mediocre results after said benching --led to an extremely out-of-character public blowup between player and club, including manager Arne Slot, which in turn led to rumors and speculation that the Liverpool legend might be headed elsewhere in the January window, less than a year removed from signing a two-year contract extension (and sweeping all the league's individual awards). Now, he and Slot apparently made amends, and he even featured for Liverpool once more before heading off for the African Cup of Nations in December, and (likely relatedly) the rumors of his impending departure have quieted significantly. But even if he is to return to Liverpool after the AFCON, the likelihood that he and the club will both improve enough in the second half of the season to match even his 2022/23 clip of 18 goals and 10 assists (his current worst return of any season with Liverpool) is slim-to-none.

5. All 3 newly promoted teams will go right back down.

My August logic:

"There's a reason this went from happening only once in Premier League history to happening in back-to-back years: the financial gap between the top and 2nd divisions in the EFL has never been higher, and with it comes an inevitable quality gap as well. Not only have the "promoted 3" ended up relegated in each of the last two seasons, it wasn't even close. In both 2024 and 2025, there was a 13-point gap between 17th place and 18th place, the relegation 'race' having been decided by about March. Looking at the teams in this year's season, it's not even clear who would be a viable relegation candidate besides the new promotees. As delightful as it was to laugh at Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur's hapless seasons, it's extremely unlikely they won't improve from their 16th and 17th place finish. Barring a complete dropoff from Crystal Palace (which you already know I don't expect) or a side that finished in the top half of last season, that leaves the foursome of Fulham, Everton, West Ham and Wolverhampton as the only other viable sides to be considered for the drop. Given how much better each of those clubs looked down the stretch of last year under the leadership of proven managers Marco Silva, David Moyes, Graham Potter and Vítor Pereira, respectively, I just don't think any of those are feasible."

How it's looking: Nope!

After two consecutive seasons of the new promotees immediately going back down, I figured it wasn't the riskiest bet to count on three, but it seems that trend will be snapped this season thanks in large part to one club: Sunderland. The Black Cats, who actually finished 4th in the Championship last year and had to win the playoff in order to promote, are making the most of their long-awaited return to the top division. They have been a "top half of the table" club all season long, and sit 16 points clear of the bottom three, even after a December and January that has seen just 1 win in 8 matches. While fellow fresh faces Burnley look one of the likelier candidates to suffer the immediate drop, the third promotee Leeds is also out of the danger zone and has been for most of this season, albeit a little closer to the drop line at 22 points. Regardless, West Ham and Wolverhampton do in fact look every bit the relegation fodder I was skeptical they would be, and it seems highly improbable we will not see at least 2 of the 3 promotees back for more next season.