5 Premier League Predictions That Will Likely Look Foolish In May

Well folks, we've made it. It's scarcely believable, but the long summer wait is over, and our beloved Premier League is already back! With a summer of international women's football and the faux-important men's Club World Cup now fully in the rear-view, attention can turn to the most elite domestic league of the World's most popular sport, where predictions and odds abound for how exactly this Premier League season will transpire. In lieu of a "storyline overview," I thought it'd be more fun to instead offer up 5 predictions for 2025-25.

The title essentially explains the thinking behind this piece. These are five things I truly believe and am going to predict will happen, knowing full well that come the end of the season, it's entirely possible-- maybe even probable --that we look back on these and laugh at my folly. In order of least to most foolhardy prophesy:

1. One of last year's Top 4 will win the league... but it won't be Liverpool.

Why it's silly: I don't think anyone would call the first half of that prediction silly; given the gap between the top and bottom halves of the table, and a frustrating offseason in the transfer market for last year's would-be spoilers Newcastle and Nottingham Forest, it's safe to say it would be a pretty big shock if this year's champion came from anywhere other than last season's Top 4 of Liverpool, Arsenal, Manchester City and Chelsea. But reigning champions Liverpool are overwhelming favorites to repeat, and for good reason. The Reds ran away with the title last season, officially wrapping up the race in April and unofficially wrapping it up well before that. And if that's not enough, they won it despite a number of very obvious shortcomings in their squad, flaws that have theoretically been addressed by a massive amount of transfer business this summer, bringing in highly coveted prospects like two-time reigning Bundesliga Player of the Season Florian Wirtz and his Bayer Leverkusen teammate Jeremie Frimpong, fellow budding Bundesliga star Hugo Ekitiké, and as of this writing, they are still rumored to be involved in a potential blockbuster deal for Newcastle star striker Alexander Isak. In the eyes of many, it would be a bigger surprise if Liverpool don't win this season than it would be if they complete a second consecutive league title.

Why I'm predicting it anyways: Because the flip side of Liverpool's big transfer moves is a rare circumstance in which we have a reigning champion that we actually know very little about! There is, of course, plenty of reason for Liverpool fans to be excited and optimistic about this new-look side, but there is so much unknown: how will all the new parts gel? Have the new signings actually satisfied all the Reds' depth concerns, or will the departures of pieces like Luis Díaz, Darwin Núñez, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Caoimhin Kelleher, and Jarrell Quansah hurt more than they're expected to? Is manager Arne Slot changing the system to better match the new personnel, and if so, how long will it take the team to buy in to the new system? And sadly, perhaps the biggest unknown of all has nothing to do with transfer business: how will the tragic death of their teammate Diogo Jota affect the team this season? Anyone who has grieved the loss of someone close to them will know that grief is both persistent and not linear, and it's reasonable to anticipate some emotional whiplash for the Liverpool squad this season. Furthermore, predicting "the field" over the favorite is less bold when there are very viable contenders in that field, and in Arsenal, City and Chelsea, there are very viable contenders. Yes, the latter two were miles off of the title charge last season but they both hit their stride in the closing months, and did some shrewd offseason business. City will enjoy the return of Ballon d'Or winner Rodri who was a massive miss in their midfield last season, and Chelsea showed through their Europa Conference League and especially Club World Cup triumphs that their ceiling is as high as anyone's. Arsenal, three time runners-up now, are so accustomed to "close, but not quite" that it's become a meme among Premier League fans, but the fact of the matter is they're the only side in England that can boast being in the thick of the title race each of the least 3 seasons, and last year they remained in the conversation despite a ridiculous slew of injuries and no real viable option at striker, something they have addressed with the signing of Swedish goal machine Viktor Gyökeres.

2. We will have a first-time Golden Boot winner.

Why it's silly: Mohamed Salah and Erling Haaland are still playing in the Premier League, last I checked. The Liverpool and Manchester City stars have a combined 6 Golden Boot trophies between them, and have won it the last 4 seasons (Salah last year and in 2022, Haaland in '23 and '24). Salah may be late in his career, but is fresh off quite possibly his best season ever, and his best in terms of goalscoring since his record-setting 2017-18 debut season. Reasonable minds would conclude that he will be the primary goalscoring option once again for the title favorites Liverpool. Haaland may have failed to three-peat his scoring title last season, but he was still good enough for a close 3rd place in the race, and that was despite an abnormally subpar season for Manchester City as a whole AND missing multiple months of the season due to injury. Assuming a clean bill of health and a rejuvenated City side, expect the goals to keep flowing for the big Norweigan.

Why I'm predicting it anyways: With the retirement of Jamie Vardy and Heung-Min Son's transfer from Tottenham to LAFC, Salah and Haaland are the only active players in the Premier League to have won this trophy, which means I'm essentially betting on the field over two players. And as great as those two players have been and figure to be again, there are both reasons to be skeptical they can replicate their peak, and plenty of intriguing alternatives should they fall short. Chelsea look a side that could be in the thick of the title race, and their young talisman Cole Palmer (who still finished with 15 goals despite a pretty poor '24-'25 season) could very well claim the throne, as could his new teammate João Pedro, who instantly became a menace in front of goal when he joined Chelsea for the Club World Cup. Fellow scoring title contenders Bryan Mbuemo, Chris Wood and Ollie Watkins still are likely to be the runaway goal providers for their respective teams, to a level that not even Salah nor Haaland may be any more, given their teams' transfer business. Then of course, there is the high possibility that last year's Golden Boot runner-up Isak joins Salah at Liverpool, in which case he would likely supplant him as the focus of the Reds' attack.

3. Crystal Palace are this year's "underdog that could."

Why it's silly: The Community Shield Curse!!!!! Beware!!!!

Whether you think it's correlation or coincidence, there's no denying the last 7 winners of the charity match between the reigning Premier League and FA Cup champions have proceeded to have a less successful league season than what was expected. Should the trend continue, that would spell bad news for Crystal Palace, who stunned Liverpool on penalties in Sunday's Community Shield. Besides, it's not like Palace exactly set the world on fire last season. Their FA Cup triumph was impressive and historic, but even a considerably stronger second half of the Premier League season only saw them good enough for a 12th-place finish. Furthermore, nearly all of their offseason business have been watching key players leave rather than bringing more personnel in, which is of particular concern given their involvement in the UEFA Conference League this season.

Why I'm predicting it anyways: Because I thought this would be the case even before the Community Shield match, and regardless of the result, the way the match went about confirmed why I felt that way. Palace were every bit Liverpool's match last Sunday, bettering the reigning champions in real goalscoring chances if not in possession. The Eagles are an incredibly well-drilled side under Oliver Glasner, with plenty of attacking pieces that are lethal on the counterattack. The latter holds true even after losing '23-'24 star Michael Olise to Bayern Munich before last season, and will remain true even if '24-'25 star Eberechi Eze departs for Arsenal or Tottenham Hotspur, as is rumored to be the likely outcome as of this writing. Despite the credentials of their managers, I am skeptical of Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa's ability to once again be a spoiler in the Champions League race, and frequent overachievers Brighton, Brentford and Bournemouth have seen their squads so ruthlessly picked apart this offseason that even another Top 10 finish would be an impressive acheivement. Who is best suited, then, to fill the vacuum of "overlooked club who punches above its weight all season and unexpectedly finds itself in the midst of a race for European football?" Give me a side with the profile of Crystal Palace all day every day, with a proven manager, bona fide talent in every position on the field, and two consecutive years of finishing the season very impressively.

4. Mohamed Salah will have his worst (statistical) season with Liverpool.

Why it's silly: There's a non-zero percent chance that this time next month, Mohamed Salah will be in France being recognized as the Ballon d'Or winner. That's how incredible his '24-'25 season was, his overall best since joining Liverpool. He may not have equaled his personal (and at the time, the Premier League) record of 32 goals from 2017-18, but he produced his second-best to date, notching 29. And his evolution as a player has seen him turn into just as potent a creator as a scorer; Salah also took home the Playmaker Award (league leader in assists) for the second time in his career, and shattered his own "goal contributions" high mark and set a new league record in that category with a total of 47 G/A. The beloved talisman signed a contract extension last year to remain the focal point of a reigning champion that again, looks intent on reloading rather than rebuilding. With more top-tier talent around him this season than last, there's a very real possibility that the 33-year old doesn't even have an inferior season this year, let alone have his worst one yet. Besides, thus far his two weakest seasons with Liverpool have corresponded with the club's two weakest seasons in that timespan, so if the Reds are going to be as good as advertised, it's likely their star player will be as well.

Why I'm predicting it anyways: Call it more of a pessimistic hunch than anything else. In the summer of 2022, amidst months of "will he?/won't he?", Salah signed a two-year contract extension, to the delight and relief of Liverpool fans who had just seen him complete a season in which he swept the league's Player of the Season, Golden Boot and Playmaker Awards. However, there was a noticeable fall-off from the Egyptian King in the closing months of that historic '21-'22 campaign, and that trend continued into a very uneven '22-'23 season with the Reds, the worst one yet for both player and club since he joined in 2017. It's hard not to see the parallels this time around: Salah puts together an incredible, record-breaking season, starring for a Liverpool side that's one of the best in the world, signs a two-year extension in the summer to the delight of Liverpool fans, but quietly was a no-show for the better part of March-May, and now enters a season having slumped to the finish line last time and leading a new-look attack. Now, it stands to reason that the Reds' attacking front will be much more potent this time than in fall 2022, wherein they tried to replace Sadio Mané with an unreliable Darwin Núñez and also had to deal with a long-term injury to Luis Díaz. But in fact, that only lends credence to my prediction: the additions of Ekitiké and Wirtz, and certainly the potential inclusion of Isak might result in a much more even load-sharing of goals than Liverpool have been used to in the Salah Era. Finally, Mo stays in tremendous shape and set the world on fire at 32, so it would be silly to act like he couldn't do it again at 33, but he is reaching the age where the fall-off can be cruelly swift, as Liverpool fans will know well from that disastrous '22-'23 season, which seemed to claim their entire aging midfield at once.

5. All 3 newly promoted teams will go right back down.

Why it's silly: Before 2023, this almost never happened. More often that not, the 'promoted three' enter the season as the betting favorites to be relegated back down at the end of the season, and that stands to reason, but historically almost every year at least one, and often at least two, of the promoted sides does enough to stay afloat in the Premier League their first year. In fact, fairly often, at least one of the promoted sides proves to be downright good despite the quality jump: Fulham in 2022, Brentford in '21, Leeds in '20, and Sheffield United in '19 are recent examples....all finished in the top half of the table. Leeds are back this season, fresh off dominating the Championship last season, and bring with them multiple seasons' worth of top-flight experience in their roster and in manager Daniel Farke. Last season's fellow Championship winners, Scott Parker's Burnley, are trendy picks to be the 'Top 10 crashers' of the promoted trio in 2024-25, having only recently turned into "ping-pong" club after a decade or so of being Premier League mainstays. And ask just about any Premier League fan, and they'll tell you surprise promotees Sunderland, who upset Sheffield in the promotion playoff at Wembley, "belong" in the league. The Black Cats, after all, are rich in history and had been Premier League heritage for most of the 21st century before their stumble in 2017; it's been a long journey back for the proud Northerners, and now that they are back, you can imagine the entire club will fight like hell to stay here.

Why I'm predicting it anyways: Because there's a reason this went from happening only once in Premier League history to happening in back-to-back years: the financial gap between the top and 2nd divisions in the EFL has never been higher, and with it comes an inevitable quality gap as well. Not only have the "promoted 3" ended up relegated in each of the last two seasons, it wasn't even close. In both 2024 and 2025, there was a 13-point gap between 17th place and 18th place, the relegation 'race' having been decided by about March. Looking at the teams in this year's season, it's not even clear who would be a viable relegation candidate besides the new promotees. As delightful as it was to laugh at Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur's hapless seasons, it's extremely unlikely they won't improve from their 16th and 17th place finish. Barring a complete dropoff from Crystal Palace (which you already know I don't expect) or a side that finished in the top half of last season, that leaves the foursome of Fulham, Everton, West Ham and Wolverhampton as the only other viable sides to be considered for the drop. Given how much better each of those clubs looked down the stretch of last year under the leadership of proven managers Marco Silva, David Moyes, Graham Potter and Vítor Pereira, respectively, I just don't think any of those are feasible.