Why Hamnet Will Win Best Picture
- 2 days ago
- 4 min read
Less than a week now until the Oscars, and no less than 10 films are ramping up their campaigns in a last-minute push for the top prize of them all, Best Picture!
It's been a marvelous year for movies, and this race has been a fascinating one. It's certainly not quite as wide-open as last year's felt, and in fact, early indications were that we might be headed for a runaway coronation (as we've had twice in recent years, with Oppenheimer and Everything Everywhere All At Once). But the wealth has begun to be spread a little more in recent awards shows, and two changes to this year-- a much later ceremony than usual and the requirement for all voters to screen all films before voting --both would seemingly favor the nominees with late-breaking momentum as opposed to the early ones.
What's more, I can't remember an Oscars with a more wide-open race in most of the acting categories; of the four, only one (Jessie Buckley for Best Actress) has been a constant winner, and even she doesn't feel like a guarantee, with the groundswell of support some of her fellow nominees have. Acting races can usually tip off a Best Picture race: Mikey Madison's "upset" over Demi Moore last year spelled a huge night for eventual Best Pic winner Anora. As such, with so much unknown in those categories, it's highly possible we get some chaos in the biggest of them all as well.
Those facts, as well as the Oscars' less predictable preferential voting system means that no nominee can truly be counted out of the race. Spotlight's and Moonlight's back-to-back upsets in 2016 and 2017, Parasite's stunner in 2020, and CODA's late surge in 2022 all taught us to expect the unexpected, so we're here to give fans of all 10 nominees reason to believe on Sunday the 15th.
In a field full of movies that dominated the box office and the online conversation, that got people chatting and that shifted the culture, few Oscar-nominated movies were met with as much buzz upon release as Hamnet. The film, an adaptation of Maggie O'Farrell's novel by O'Farrell herself and Chloe Zhao, winner of Best Picture and Best Director 5 years ago for Nomadland, emerged from a film festival circuit with rave reviews-- some going so far as to deem it one of the best films ever made --and it's been a sensation ever since, even inspiring a social media trend of attendees filming themselves at the start and end of a viewing to document their emotional journey. Just as in the 2020 novel, Hamnet tells the fictionalized story of William Shakespeare and his real-life family, charting the start of his relationship with Anne ("Agnes") Hathaway and their growth as a couple, as a family, and processing all the love and grief that surrounds and befalls them.
If you still haven't seen it, that plot might not titillate you, and you might be perplexed by the social media phenomenon I described above; just trust me when I tell you, "emotional" would be the best single descriptor I could use for this film. I referenced in my preview of Train Dreams that Hamnet has been met, by a small number of critics and a much larger number of online voices, with some derision and accusations of manipulation by way of overwrought emotion. If that were going to be a sentiment shared by awards show voters, though, it certainly hasn’t played out as such yet. From the moment it was screened at film festivals, Zhao's movie was tabbed as a serious player in awards season, and that has very much borne out: in the de facto 'kickoff' to the awards circuit, Hamnet took home the Golden Globe for Best Picture - Drama. That remains the movie's lone Best Pic/equivalent win among the major precursor awards-- unless you're counting "Best British Film" at the BAFTAs --but that's one more win than most Best Picture nominees can boast, and what's more, it's been a mainstay in the field in just about every other race: BAFTAs. Critics' Choice. Directors' Guild. Producers' Guild. SAG. They're one of just four movies that can boast a nomination in each of those major Oscar precursors, so there can be little doubt the industry love is there.
If you're well-versed in Oscar forecasting, you might rebut the above point that the vast majority of Hament's success on the awards circuit has centered on one person: Jessie Buckley. And that is fair! But actually does not counter my point at all, but in fact bolsters it. Buckley is a jaw-dropping tour de force as Agnes Hathaway Shakespeare; it's been a long time since I've watched a movie and so immediately felt I was watching the best acting performance of the year, and clearly I am not alone in that feeling, as Buckley has positively run away with the lead for Best Actress in what had the makings of a very competitive year. In an abnormally unpredictable year for all other acting races, Jessie winning Best Actress is the closest thing to a lock in, really, ANY of the "major" categories. Why does that matter? Well, because what do 4 of the last 5 Best Picture winners have in common? That's right, a win in Best Actor or Best Actress. Even in the lone exception this decade, CODA, the only nominated actor from that film won his category, as Troy Kotsur took home Best Supporting Actor. It's by no means unprecedented for a movie to take Best Picture sans any acting win, mind you, but the clear trend in recent years has been established: a star turn from your lead can take your movie to the top. Last year's Best Actress and Best Picture race were both perceived to be neck-and-neck, and when Mikey Madison scored a minor upset over Demi Moore for the former, it spelled big things for Anora, which capped its terrific night with a Best Picture win. Given that Jessie Buckley is not only the favorite, but the only clear favorite to win an acting award on the night, that can only mean good things for Hamnet -- don't be shocked if the groundswell of support Buckley herself has is in store for her film as well, and a movie that has provided the most emotionally cathartic experience in some time for many people strikes a chord within the Academy as well.
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