Your Necessary 2026 Oscars Viewing Guide

After a long(er than usual), arduous journey, we've finally arrived. It's Oscar Sunday!! The cinephile's equivalent of Super Bowl Sunday!! (Indeed, the joy of being a man that #containsmultitudes is that you get two Super Bowl Sundays to overly emotionally invest in.)

In preparation for tonight's Academy Awards, we here at The Couch have provided a rundown of the some of the most major awards. Yes, only a handful of awards and not every single one. Do not take this to mean I don't think highly of the nominees for the likes of Best Short Film and Best Production Design, but rather that they will likely receive less attention, and in truth, I am a fair bit less informed about those nominees than I am for the following 12 categories. This Oscars has a couple of the usual slam dunk categories, but in general, is vastly more competitive than we've become accustomed to in recent years, including in the biggest race of them all. As a result, I am far less confident in these selections than I typically am. Who knows who will take top honors? We'll find out shortly, at least! I have made predictions for each highlighted award, as well as sharing my thoughts on the potential spoilers, should-be winners, should-NOT-be winners, and snubs. Enjoy, and happy viewing!

Best Original Song

• "Dear Me," by Diane Warren (Diane Warren: Relentless)

• "Golden," by 24, Ejae, Ido, Mark Sonnenblick, and Teddy Park (KPop Demon Hunters)

• "I Lied to You," by Raphael Saadiq and Ludwig Göransson (Sinners)

• "Sweet Dreams of Joy," by Nicholas Pike (Viva Verdi!)

• "Train Dreams," by Nick Cave and Bryce Dessner (Train Dreams)

Will Win: "Golden"

Could Win: "I Lied to You"

Should Win: "I Lied to You"

Anything BUT: “Dear Me"

Snubbed: "Pale, Pale Moon", by Brittany Howard (Sinners)

This is undoubtedly a two-horse race, although it is so funny to me that the Academy continues to nominate Diane Warren and not give her a win. It's one of their best bits. This year, it feels like a waste, though, because it's such an unimpressive song that I'm curious why we even bother with the bit instead of giving it to another one of the many bangers from the Sinners soundtrack. The biggest banger of all is up for the award, and lord knows it should win, given not only how good of a song "I Lied To You" is but also the role it plays in shaping one of the most astounding scenes in cinema this year. Chances are it will instead go to the mega-smash "Golden," though, which was everywhere in the wake of KPop Demon Hunters's viral rise.

---

Best Original Score

• Jerskin Fendrix, Bugonia

• Alexandre Desplat, Frankenstein

• Max Richter, Hamnet

• Jonny Greenwood, One Battle After Another

• Ludwig Göransson, Sinners

Will Win: Ludwig Göransson

Could Win: Max Richter

Should Win: Ludwig Göransson

Anything BUT: Alexandre Desplat

Snubbed: Daniel Lopatin, Marty Supreme

I'm already bracing myself for the amount of Sinners disappointment after tonight's results. That's not to say I expect Sinners to have a disappointing night, mind you; I think it's very possible they have a great night! But with a record-setting 16 nominations in a very competitive year full of great movies, it stands to reason that there are a number of categories they will not win. This is not one of them. Ludwig Göransson (Black Panther, Oppenheimer) has two Oscars to his name already, and is destined to get a third, as the brilliant music of Sinners was the most impactful and wholly original of any nominee this year, by some margin. If it doesn't win, it will be just as farciful as Daniel Lopatin's pulsating Marty Supreme score not even earning a nod. First Challengers last year, then Marty Supreme this year....the Academy just can't do techno synth-heavy scores, can they?

---

Best Documentary Feature

• The Alabama Solution

• Come See Me in the Good Light

• Cutting Through Rocks

• Mr. Nobody Against Putin

• The Perfect Neighbor

Will Win: The Perfect Neighbor

Could Win: The Alabama Solution

Should Win: The Alabama Solution

Anything BUT: Mr. Nobody Against Putin

Snubbed: Holding Liat

I'll confess to only seeing 3 of the 5 nominees here, so I have nothing to say about Cutting Through Rocks or Mr. Nobody Against Putin, except to say that, as relevant as it may still be, it feels like the 'anti-Russia/anti-Putin' topic is pretty well trodden in recent years. I think this will come down to The Perfect Neighbor or The Alabama Solution, two documentaries covering very different instances and events, but sharing the common theme of the backwards treatment of black folks in the American South. Either would be a deserving winner; I found the viewing experience for The Perfect Neighbor much easier, tragic as the story was. But what the Alabama Solution crew was able to achieve to get this documentary made, and the bravery of these inmates risking their livelihood to make sure the truth about their conditions gets told... that deserves more attention and every award I can think of. I also would have liked to see the award-winning documentary from friend and former Oscar party attendee Brandon Kramer named among the nominees.

---

Best International Feature

• It Was Just An Accident (France/Iran)

• The Secret Agent (Brazil)

• Sentimental Value (Norway/United Kingdom)

• Sirāt (Spain/Morocco)

• The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia)

Will Win: Sentimental Value

Could Win: The Secret Agent

Should Win: It Was Just An Accident

Anything BUT: The Secret Agent

Snubbed: Fiume o morte! (Croatia)

For the third year running, the field for this award includes multiple films in contention for Best Picture as well. By default, you'd have to imagine those are the two favorites for this award. The Secret Agent seems to have gained the momentum in this race, as its universal acclaim has remained even as it gains more and more of an audience. But I don't know, even as Sentimental Value has lost some steam on the awards circuit, it was clearly adored by the Academy, with nominees in every single major field. I think the combination of its all-star cast appeal and the fact that a Brazilian movie taking place in the height of the Brazilian military dictatorship won this award just last year will result in Joachim Trier's film winning the day. Interestingly enough, the two foreign-language films most expected to crash the Best Picture field before the awards circuit did not do so: Park Chan-wook's No Other Choice didn't even land a single nomination, which many found the most shocking snub of all. It's a sentiment I'm sure I would share had I gotten around to seeing it, which alas, I have not yet. (As it is, my biggest snub for this field was a personal favorite from a European Film Festival I was lucky enough to attend,) And perhaps an even bigger surprise was the limited awards buzz for Jafar Panahi's It Was Just An Accident, despite its near-unanimous critical acclaim. It's a damn shame; Panahi's film is in a league of its own in this field, in my opinion, and one of the very best of the whole year.

---

Best Original Screenplay

• Robert Kaplow, Blue Moon

• Jafar Panahi, Nader Saïvar, Shadmehr Rastin, and Mehdi Mahmoudian, It Was Just An Accident

• Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme

• Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value

• Ryan Coogler, Sinners

Will Win: Ryan Coogler

Could Win: Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier

Should Win: Jafar Panahi and co.

Anything BUT: Robert Kaplow

Snubbed: Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby

For as coveted and often hotly-contested the Screenplay awards are, they also have, perhaps increasingly in recent year, often had a "no-brainer" of a frontrunner. That is no different this year, where one of the surest things on the night for Sinners is that it will take home this award. I just made my thoughts known on the quality of It Was Just An Accident, and the screenplay is honestly not my favorite aspect of Sinners, so I would love a big upset for Panahi and his team specifically. That said, I'll be happy for any victory Sinners can claim on the night, and given how less likely it is that Ryan Coogler wins in the Director race, would be thrilled for him to take this one at least. I should say this field, as good as it is, would be improved with the inclusion of Sorry, Baby, the saddest of the snubs for me. I wasn't shocked that the small indie film didn't land any nominations at these awards, but it's a quiet force. Eva Victor in her debut feature created such a soul-baring, deeply hilarious and unflinching screenplay and acting performance both.

---

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Will Tracy, Bugonia

• Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein

• Chloe Zhao and Maggie O'Farrell, Hamnet

• Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

• Greg Kwedar and Clint Bentley, Train Dreams

Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson

Could Win: Chloe Zhao and Maggie O'Farrell

Should Win: Greg Kwedar and Clint Bentley

Anything BUT: Guillermo del Toro

Snubbed: Rian Johnson, Wake Up Dead Man

If we were going to nominate the screenplay from a widely-watched Netflix feature from a popular director, did we have to choose the overwrought Frankenstein? Why not Wake Up Dead Man, the underrated (and best-written yet) latest installment of Rian Johnson's Knives Out franchise? Anyway, that's the extent of my beef with this category, which otherwise includes 4 absolute belters. As is so often the case for tonight, Paul Thomas Anderson is the heavy favorite here, and a win would hardly be undeserved. But given how much the film is expected to win on the night, I'd be happy to see a victory for either of Hamnet and Train Dreams, whose gorgeous, restrained screenplays made me feel every emotion. Given Hamnet's strong position in other major awards, my slight preference may be for the latter.

---

Best Supporting Actor

• Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another

• Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein

• Delroy Lindo, Sinners

• Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

• Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

Will Win: Stellan Skarsgård

Could Win: Sean Penn

Should Win: Benicio del Toro

Anything BUT: Sean Penn

Snubbed: Paul Mescal, Hamnet

One of the biggest talking points about these Academy Awards is the unusually competitive state of most acting categories. Even in more conventional years, the supporting categories are where upset victories are more likely than in others. But this year, the status of both supporting races is such that there can't be a surprise winner, really; there's no clear favorite! Sean Penn enters tonight is the slight favorite, and it's easy to see why: he's won at the last two major awards shows-- the BAFTAs and the SAG --and seems to represent the best chance for an all-important acting win for Best Picture favorite One Battle After Another. He also occupies the same unique space for me that Adrien Brody did for me last year: objectively, he was brilliant, likely the strongest of this whole field, so if he does win, fair enough. But between him being a scuzzy guy and the fact that he has a couple of these already, a win for him would also be the least exciting outcome to me. That latter part is especially what makes me think he might not win it: the Oscars don't tend to give out Oscars to the same person that already has a couple, especially in a year like this with so many strong nominees. I wouldn't be shocked to see a Delroy Lindo surprise here, but I'm opting for a different 'veteran upset,' as early favorite Stellan Skarsgård would be the likeliest winner from highly-favored Sentimental Value. Spare a thought here, too, for sweet Paul Mescal; it's hard to know who should be booted from this field to make way for him, and he was understandably outshone by the brilliant Jessie Buckley in Hamnet, but his interpretation of a lovelorn and forlorn Shakespeare was quietly tremendous in itself.

---

Best Supporting Actress

• Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value

• Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value

• Amy Madigan, Weapons

• Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners

• Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

Will Win: Teyana Taylor

Could Win: Amy Madigan

Should Win: Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas

Anything BUT: Elle Fanning

Snubbed: Odessa A'Zion, Marty Supreme

If you thought the Supporting Actor race was wide open, its female counterpart is wiiiiiiiiide open. This is one of the only categories-- and only major category -- in which I look at ansd say "truly, I have no idea." The smartest money is on Amy Madigan, who could be following the same path Jamie Lee Curtis did three years ago: beloved veteran actress who got lots of award buzz early on, which quieted as she went winless on the circuit, until a win at the SAG awards repositioned her as a contender. And it's true that only twice in the 21st century has this award not gone to the SAG winner, and in one of those occasions, it was because Kate WInslet pivoted to LEad Actress-- which she also won-- between the SAG and the Academy Awards. But I don't know... Madigan's momentum is coming so late in the season, and the complete lack of ANY other nominations for Weapons is throwing me. I could easily see this going to her, or to BAFTA winner Wunmi Mosaku, but I do think the early favorite Teyana Taylor might end up sneaking back in to claim this award, as part of a big night for One Battle After Another. The one nominee I am very confident WON'T win sadly, is my favorite: the breakout Lilleaas was the most impressive part of a film full of brilliant acting performances. (Ironically, I thought her castmate Elle Fanning was easily the least impressive part, and would have much rather seen her spot go to the under-appreciated Regina Hall in One Battle, or A'Zion, the breakout star in Marty Supreme who matched Timothée Chalamet pound for pound.)

---

Best Actress

• Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

• Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I'd Kick You

• Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue

• Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value

• Emma Stone, Bugonia

Will Win: Jessie Buckley

Could Win: Rose Byrne

Should Win: Jessie Buckley

Anything BUT: Kate Hudson

Snubbed: Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another

3 of the 4 acting races feel very much in the balance, but this is the closest thing to a sure thing of any major category tonight, which says a lot more about the performance of the favorite than it does the quality of the field. Rose Byrne, who stands to be the likeliest beneficiary in the event of a huge upset, and Renate Reinsve were both nothing short of brilliant in their respective roles as a therapist and mother at wit's end, and a daughter and sister in the mires of depression, respectively. Emma Stone is good as ever in Bugonia, and while I have not seen Song Sung Blue, I've heard near-unanimous good things about Kate Hudson's performance. This field doesn't even include some of the most stunning performances of the year, like Chase Infiniti's breakout star turn in the Best Picture favorite. But I've known the same thing many people have known since seeing her film: this award has Jessie Buckley's name all over it. Her performance in Hamnet is nothing short of generational, the kind of performance that makes you forget you're watching an actress and not the real Agnes Hathaway, in living, breathing form.

---

Best Actor

• Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

• Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another

• Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon

• Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

• Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent

Will Win: Timothée Chalamet

Could Win: Michael B. Jordan

Should Win: Ethan Hawke

Anything BUT: Michael B. Jordan

Snubbed: Jesse Plemons, Bugonia

A race that seemed to be an inevitability for so much of awards season has suddenly turned into a real contest right in time for the Oscars. Between the aura of "it's his time" that seemed to be dictating his early buzz, and the copious wins he was stockpiling on the awards circuit, this Oscar seemed salted away for Timotheé Chalamet not long ago. But even before the latest industry outcry over his comments towards the ballet and opera, some had started to sour on the actor reportedly due to his relentless campaigning. Then, in tandem with the apparent 'vibe shift,' the frontrunner abnormally whiffed at both the BAFTAs and then the SAG, the latter going to Michael B. Jordan. The momentum favors Jordan now, so much so, that some betting markets have him as the favorite, and there's no denying there's a great deal of momentum surrounding Sinners in general at the moment. I'm conflicted because where there's smoke, there's fire, and it really does seem like Chalamet's star has started to dim. But at the same time, given the actor at the BAFTAs isn't even eligible at the Oscars, the only loss he has actually taken was that SAG win by Jordan, which is the exact same award Chalamet won last year immediately before losing the Oscar to Adrien Brody. I'm going with my gut that the hype is reacting too much to the 'moment,' and the built-in "lead" Chalamet seemed to have is real. What a strong field, though; it's a shame that this field isn't even stronger, which it could have been were it not for the absurd snub of Bugonia's Jesse Plemons. Also a shame? Neither of the two likely winners would excite me all that much. I like Michael B. Jordan as an actor, and would be happy for him, but I found him to be one of the least memorable entries from the many strong acting performances of Sinners. And while Chalamet is undeniably great as Marty Supreme, regardless of how you feel about him in the wake of his unintentional tainting of his reputation, his role doesn't exactly feel like too big of a stretch from the many starring roles we've seen him play. I didn't loveThe Secret Agent, but Wagner Moura was undeniably great as its lead, and if I were just straight up awarding based on my favorite performance, it truthfully would be going to DiCaprio in a landslide; in my opinion, it's in the conversation for his career best. But nothing would make me happier than an upset for Ethan Hawke, a brilliant actor who is long overdue for his first Oscar, and was once again astoundingly good in anchoring Blue Moon.

---

Best Director

• Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

• Ryan Coogler, Sinners

• Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme

• Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value

• Chloe Zhao, Hamnet

Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson

Could Win: Ryan Coogler

Should Win: Paul Thomas Anderson

Anything BUT: Josh Safdie

Snubbed: Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby

Many prognosticators see this race as the other "done deal" among the major categories, as much of a done deal in their eyes as the Best Actress. I'm not quite sure I agree, just because, in the not-at-all-unlikely event that the Sinners surge is real, if it's poised for a huge night, Coogler could very much take this one home as well. This is, unsurprisingly for a loaded year in films, a loaded race here, though again I would have been elated to see some love for Eva Victor's brilliant debut work. Had Chloe Zhao not already won one for Nomadland 5 years ago, I expect she may represent a larger contender here, and lord knows she'd deserve it for her brilliant work with Hamnet. Even if I were not as wild about their films as most others were-- especially Sentimental Value --I could hardly argue a win for Josh Safdie or Joachim Trier would be undeserved, either. That said, I expect this award will still be PTA's, and frankly, it absolutely should be. There's not a misplaced scene or line or direction in the nearly 3 hours of One Battle After Another, and his fingerprints are all over it in the best way. It's his time.

---

Best Picture

• Bugonia

• F1

• Frankenstein

• Hamnet

• Marty Supreme

• One Battle After Another

• The Secret Agent

• Sentimental Value

• Sinners

• Train Dreams

Will Win: One Battle After Another

Could Win: Sinners

Should Win: One Battle After Another

Anything BUT: F1

Snubbed: It Was Just An Accident

I've been teasing this since the start of previewing every Best Picture nominee 10 days ago, and I referenced it at the top of this piece: this Best Picture race is far from an open-shut decision, as is the case with most of the major races this year. It's rare these days that we get a good amount of drama surrounding the biggest award of them all, so drink it in! Revel in the intrigue!

It feels fitting for there to be a "real" race this year, which in my opinion stands with 2023 as two of the strongest years for movies in recent history. I have been blown away by many of the films I've seen this year, and I feel #blessed even further to come into Oscar night knowing that the only movies that have proven to be a threat to win this awards season (One Battle After Another, Sinners and maaaaaaybe Hamnet) also happen to literally be my three favorite films of the year. As for who will win? Well, the Sinners of it all is presenting a conundrum for me: there is so much buzz that the momentum feels very real. But I can't figure out if this is another Get Out: the cultural phenomenon of the year hardly wins big on the awards circuit, but has such a stockpile of goodwill and excitement around it that it enters Oscar night being talked about as a genuine contender, only to largely strike out on the major awards after all; or if it's another Parasite: the buzziest film of the year is consistently adored, and also consistently the "second choice" to the more conventional frontrunner throughout awards season, until a big win at the SAG Awards builds excitement, and it rides the hype and momentum into a stunning Oscars night.

I could very much see the latter playing out; the Sinners surge feels real to me, and the 16 nominations are no fluke. We could very well headed for an enormous night for Ryan Coogler and his movie. But I just think, not unlike (and even more so than) the Best Actor race, that the perceived favorite and longtime frontrunner One Battle After Another will still be the big winner on the night. For one, I don't know that we've ever had a nominee fail to win Best Picture that had already won at each of the Golden Globes, the BAFTAs, the Critics' Choice, the Writers' Guild, the Directors' Guild, and the Producers' Guild. But also, it's not often one of the "buzziest" movies of the year is also the unanimous critical favorite, and would also represent a first-ever Academy Award triumph for one of the most celebrated and popular directors of his time. I think that's too strong a cocktail for Sinners (or anyone else) to overcome.