Re-Seeding The Sweet 16

Big 12 champions Arizona and runners-up Houston spent the season being the cream of the crop in not only their conference, but the nation; it's been true of the postseason thus far, too.

I wrote this piece for the first time in 2018, and boldly proclaimed the early stages of that tournament-- which featured the first-ever '16 over 1' upset --the wildest in history, which seemed fitting given the general season-long madness that year in basketball was. I wouldn't have believed it at that time, but that level of madness has been usurped, perhaps even twice over. It certainly was when I last wrote this series in 2023, which saw perhaps the most unhinged tournament of my lifetime: zero 1-seeds reaching the Elite 8, a 16-seed beating a 1, a 15-seed in the 2nd weekend of the tournament for the third consecutive year, and a Final Four which saw no seed higher than a 4, including three debutantes.

2023 set a near-impossible bar to clear, which may play as much a part as anything in why I have been less consistent with my college basketball coverage on recent seasons. That said, after the pit of last year-- which saw all 1-seeds in the Final Four for just the second time ever and zero double-digit seeds in the second weekend --and with the general moving and shaking that took place this season, I imagine I was one of many that expected at least some level of chaos to return in this year's tournament. And yet, with the first two rounds of tournament play in the rear-view, for the second year running the biggest surprise of all has been the relative lack of surprises. Sure, there were some fun exceptions, the biggest one being 1-seed and reigning national champs Florida getting eliminated at the buzzer by 9th-seeded Iowa. My beloved Tar Heels blew a 20-point 2nd half lead to 11th-seeded VCU, and lost a head coach in the aftermath. Fellow 11-seed Texas needed a buzzer-beater to progress from the "First Four," and yet find themselves in the Sweet 16. 12th-seeded High Point stunned Wisconsin at the buzzer. And there's been no shortage of terrific, down-to-the-wire games in the first two rounds, either. All of the above has made this tournament a more enjoyable one for the neutrals than last year, at least.

But, this time next week, we will know who is playing in the Final Four, and with all the dust starting to settle and the picture clearer for this weekend's slates, just about every name you'd expect to be in contention is still in contention. Indeed, for all the criticism the selection committee got this year (some warranted, some not), they seemed to have nailed their seedings at least, with 12 of their top 16 seeds, including 7 of the Top 8, all skating through to the Sweet 16. So yes, the tournament very much hangs in the balance at this point. There's a chance that given the general lack of chaos beforehand, we could once again see an extremely chalky Final Four. Orrrrr against all odds, the madness could come back in full force, and we could again see a Final Four sans any top 3 seeds. Who knows? March, baby!

Anyways, with the Sweet 16 kicking off tomorrow night, here's an attempt at re-seeding all 16 teams, in part based on the teams' quality coming into the tournament, but in equal part as if their seasons transpired entirely over last weekend:

1-SEEDS: Very Good Teams Playing Like Very Good Teams

​Arizona ([1], 2nd overall)

Beaten: (16) LIU by 24, (9) Utah State by 12

The Associated Press and Coaches polls disagreed, but Arizona was my # 1 team for the last few weeks of the regular season, and based on what we've seen from the Wildcats thus far, I see no reason to knock them from their perch at this point. Tommy Lloyd's team is the only 1-seed to not really break a sweat yet-- sure, a tricky Utah State team hung around until the last few minutes of their Round of 32 clash before Arizona finally put them away for good, but still, the Wildcats have never trailed yet this tournament. The West is a sneakily tricky region, but they are quite clearly still the team to beat.

​​Michigan ([1], 3rd overall)

Beaten: (16) Howard by 21, (8) Saint Louis by 23

For a side that spent so much of the season looking like the best team in the country, there's a small question of whether Michigan's running out of steam ever so slightly. The late-season loss to Duke cast a pall over their title credentials, and their Big Ten tournament performances were less than stellar, barely scraping to the Final where they were beaten soundly by Purdue. Two games into this tournament, though, and they have been much improved. The Wolverines have played with their food a little bit, a tendency that could be dangerous in the latter rounds of the tournament: 16-seed Howard was within 3 at halftime, and one round later, Saint Louis led with 5 minutes left in the 1st half. But it's been the 2nd half of both games where Michigan has flexed their muscles, putting the game completely out of reach by the 10-minute mark. If "2nd half Michigan" is who shows up this weekend, there's nobody they can't beat.

Houston (2)

Beaten: (15) Idaho by 34, (10) Texas A&M by 31

After coming so close to the mountaintop last year, Houston's singular focus is on getting back to the national title and this time, winning it. The Cougars spent the entire season in the conversation of "best teams" but never atop that tier; based on their two games played in this tournament, the latter could very well change, though. While all but one of the 1-seeds struggled with their opponents at some point this tournament-- and one of them crashed out of it altogether --Houston made quick work of theirs, absolutely blowing the doors off both Idaho and impressively, SEC opponents Texas A&M (who took a 1-seeded Houston to overtime at the same stage two years ago). The competition level steps up significantly in the Sweet 16 with Illinois on the docket, but the Cougs are battle-tested.

Iowa State (2)

Beaten: (15) Tennessee State by 34, (7) Kentucky by 19

That's right, this blog is a #Big12Believer! 3 of our 4 top seeds come from the same conference. Iowa State's finish to what was such a good season for them was a highly disappointing one, but the Cyclones' postseason has had them looking much more like their December-February selves. First, a good run in the Big 12 tournament only came to an end because of an Arizona buzzer-beater in the semifinals. Following that, with a 2-seed secured, T.J. Otzelberger's squad has locked in in the first two rounds of this tournament, quickly demolishing any dreams Tennessee State may have had of a massive upset, and then turning around an early 20-9 deficit to a runaway win against Kentucky one round later. The trouble for Iowa State-- besides the fact that they're in Michigan's region --is that they now have to win without star player Joshua Jefferson, who appears unlikely to return from his ankle injury suffered in the 1st round win. But based on what we've seen early on, this is still a team nobody wants to face.

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2-SEEDS: Very Good Teams That Look A Little Shaky

Connecticut (2)

Beaten: (15) Furman by 11, (7) UCLA by 16

There have been numerous stretches this season where UConn has resembled the team that went back-to-back in 2023 and 2024. The better part of the last month has not been one of them: Dan Hurley's Huskies were twice blown out by St. John's, the latter instance in the Big East Championship, and in between those also suffered a loss at home to unranked Creighton. But after a 2nd-round exit last year, Connecticut is back in the Sweet 16 with a real chance at making another run to the final weekend, and it's on the back of their mental toughness. Both plucky 15-seed Furman and a talented UCLA side hung with UConn until about the 5-minute mark of their games, but that tournament experience kicked in down the stretch and the higher seed was able to ultimately coast to a victory each time. That mental fortitude will need to be on full display in a loaded East regional: even if they get past Tom Izzo and Michigan State on Friday night, awaiting for them will either be their twice-vanquishers St. John's, or...

​​​​Duke ([1], 1st overall)

Beaten: (16) Siena by 6, (9) TCU by 23

...top overall seed, Duke! Who, granted, have not particularly looked the part of top overall seed until about the 10-minute mark of their 2nd round game against TCU. The Blue Devils took over that game against the Horned Frogs with a 27-9 run that reminded everybody just how wildly good they can be when everything is clicking. The problem is, everything wasn't clicking for the 70 minutes of game time in the tournament before that. The Devils flirted dangerously with the biggest upset in NCAA Tournament history in round 1, becoming the first-ever 1-seed to trail a 16-seed by double digits at halftime, as they did to Siena, who went into the locker room up 11. It was no fluke, either: Duke didn't take their first lead in the 2nd half until under 5 minutes. You would think that would be an instant wake-up call, and yet, they once again found themselves in a dogfight two days later, trading leads with TCU until that turning point midway through the 2nd half. They've shown more scars than a top overall seed typically does in the first weekend of the tournament. Still, if that game-deciding stretch on Saturday in Greenville marked the "light coming on" moment for this team, everything is still possible for them.

Michigan State (3)

Beaten: (14) North Dakota State by 25, (7) Louisville by 8

And the third "2-seed" is yet another team from the East regional! It's gonna be fun in D.C. this weekend, where I happen to live...shame the cheapest single-game tickets are $300 and I actively hate two of the teams involved whoops. Anyways! "Mr. March" is back at it, taking Michigan State to the Sweet 16 for the 17th time in his tenure at the helm. This one came as little surprise, as the Spartans have shown their ceiling to be higher than the 3-seed they ended up with, and sure enough, North Dakota State posed little upset threat for them in the first round. They has a considerably tougher time with Louisville in the Round of 32, though, which is notable only because the Cardinals were without one of their injured stars. Still, Jeremy Fears and co. were able to keep them at arms' length, and will be an unwelcome sight for UConn and any potential opponents beyond that. Their potential is high, and I'm not sure they've played up to that yet in March.

​​Illinois (3)

Beaten: (14) Penn by 35, (11) VCU by 21

In fairness, the qualifier putting Illinois in this tier is their easy path thus far to get here: they're the only Sweet 16 team that hasn't had to beat a single-digit opponent yet, which is interesting, because the exact same thing was true of a 3-seeded Illinois two years ago as well. Still, they can't control the teams they play, and in terms of what they CAN control-- their play on the court --they haven't looked shaky at all. Ivy League champions Penn were a dark horse upset pick in Round 1 for the brave and bold (read: me), but a 65-point 2nd half by the Illini roundly dispelled any possibility of that happening. And was it a gift to narrowly avoid having to play 6-seed North Carolina in Greenville, SC the round after? Probably, although the way the Illini played against the same VCU team that beat Carolina two days prior suggests it probably wouldn't have mattered anyhow. If both teams continue to play the way they've been playing, Illinois-Houston tomorrow night could be the game of the tournament. Hope you're willing to stay up late!!

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3-SEEDS: Peaking At The Right Time?

 ​​Purdue (2)

Beaten: (15) Queens by 33, (7) Miami by 10

It wasn't nearly the year many expected it to be for Purdue: the preseason # 1 team lost by 25 early on to Iowa State, and while they scored some big wins over the next few months, never really kicked into high gear in a season that ended with 3 losses in their last 4 games. But the Boilermakers are epitomizing "peaking at the right time," riding their Big Ten tourney triumph into the second weekend of this tournament as well. After joining their fellow 2-seeds in thrashing their first round opponents, they faced a stern test from Miami and first-year coach Jai Lucas in the next round, but Matt Painter's side took control of the game midway through the second half and never looked back. Conference tournament performances are often over-valued in bracket predictions, and I'll admit, I was a little skeptical of Purdue coming into this tournament. But, at least in 3 of the 4 halves they've played, so far they are showing their form is for real.

Alabama (4)

Beaten: (13) Hofstra by 20, (5) Texas Tech by 25

Alabama didn't have quite as lofty preseason expectations as Purdue, but similarly, were tabbed as a contender very early on, and yet, amidst the hardest schedule strength in the country, never really sustained a long stretch of wins. But so far, that battle-testing has paid off in this tournament. The Tide started a little slow in their opening game, but ultimately cruised past would-be Cinderella team Hofstra, and then in the Round of 32, completely dominated a tough but shorthanded Texas Tech side. Now, the level picks up significantly with top seed Michigan awaiting them in Chicago, but given the level Bama have played at this season, don't expect them to be daunted by the competition.

​​Arkansas (4)

Beaten: (13) Hawai'i by 19, (12) High Point by 6

John Calipari has led Arkansas back to the Sweet 16, 2 for 2 in his seasons at the helm in Fayetteville. Once again, the Razorbacks are part of a significant SEC representation in this round-- just 5 of the Sweet 16 this year, though, compared to the absurd 7 last year -- but this time carry the flag of SEC champions. Calipari's squad spent the entire season ranked within the 14-20 range of the AP, but saved their best basketball for last: after a blowout loss at league leaders Florida, they closed with three straight wins against tournament teams, and then stormed through the SEC tournament to claim their first bit of hardware in years. That good run has continued in the first two rounds, but it's been far from a formality. They eventually cruised past underdogs Hawai'i, but it took them a while to get out of first gear, and then the tournament's last true Cinderella, High Point, took them to the wire, leading as late at the 4-minute mark. The Hogs definitely have the talent (and coaching experience) to upset top-seed Arizona, but it will need to come out a lot sharper than they have in the first two rounds.

​​St. John's (5)

Beaten: (12) Northern Iowa by 26, (5) Kansas by 2

I suppose it stands to reason that 3 of the 4 in the "peaking at the right time" tier won their conference tournaments, right? St. John's somewhat accidentally stumbled into the Big East regular-season title thanks to the higher-ranked UConn's shocking slipup vs. Creighton, but they backed up their champion credentials with a blowout of the Huskies (their second of the season) in the title game in Madison Square Garden. It's been a funny old season for the Johnnies, who started  it in the Top 5 and then fell out of the rankings altogether after a 7-4 start, but there's no doubt they closed it playing their best ball. It's been a funny old tournament for Rick Pitino and co., too: through the first 3.5 of their 4 halves played, they looked the part of contender, blowing out an experienced Northern Iowa team and largely controlling affairs against favored Kansas. Then came a chaotic last few minutes in which Kansas stormed all the way back, and the Johnnies started committing many a brainless turnover and dumb shot, only to ultimately save the day with a coast-to-coast winner as time expired. The St. John's that has mostly been present this March can absolutely hang with, even beat, Duke. The panicked side that did everything they could to give the game to Kansas likely cannot.

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4-SEEDS: Just Happy To Be Here

​​Nebraska (4)

Beaten: (13) Troy by 29, (5) Vanderbilt by 2

It's not often that a 4-seed would describe themselves as "happy to be here"; after all, based on seed alone, it would be expected. But Nebraska is no ordinary 4-seed. This is a university that was the only major program to never win an NCAA tournament game...until now. Even though they ended up losing half of their last 12 games after a famous 20-0 start, this was still the Cornhuskers' greatest-ever regular season, and they made sure that opportunity didn't go to waste by blasting Troy in Round 1 for their first ever tournament win. The next round is where it got dicey; in perhaps the game of the tournament, thus far, Nebraska traded blows with SEC runners-up Vanderbilt up to the very end, which saw the Huskers take their final lead on a floater with less than 3 seconds remaining, but still come within half an inch of defeat as Tyler Tanner's halfcourt heave seemed to go all the way down the bucket but SOMEHOW rimmed out. Husker faithful will be hoping for less cardiac stress from here on out, and the good news is, thanks to Florida's stunning defeat, the South is the most open region of all at this point.

Tennessee (6)

Beaten: (11) Miami-Ohio by 22, (3) Virginia by 7

Tennessee's gone under the radar in a loaded SEC all year long, only resurfacing in the Top 25 within the last couple weeks of the season, in which they promptly lost 4 of their last 6 games. Still, Rick Barnes' side has played up to their high ceiling in the two tournament games thus far, blasting 30-win underdog darlings Miami-Ohio in their first game, and upsetting ACC runners-up Virginia in the Round of 32. The latter was an ugly showdown all around, and even though Tennessee spent the vast majority on the top, they had to positively cling on amidst a late UVA flurry. Still, they're back in the Sweet 16 for the 4th year running, and facing an Iowa State team down their best player, will feel a third straight Elite 8 berth is entirely feasible.

​​Texas (11)

Beaten: (11) North Carolina State by 2, (6) BYU by 8, (3) Gonzaga by 6

In this, the third straight chalk-heavy Sweet 16 we college basketball fans have been 'treated' to, Texas is the de facto Cinderella. That's right, one of the most recognizable college brands in the nation, with a massive endowment and enrollment, is our darling underdog now. Well done, everyone! No but really, the Longhorns' place as the last double-digit seed alive has already been well-earned. They had to begin their fight earlier than most, playing in Dayton as one of the last four teams in the tournament, where they held a steady lead against NC State for most of the game before a late Wolfpack comeback to tie forced a game-winner out of Tramon Mark. That took them to opening weekend in Portland, where they won two de facto road games against Wooden Award candidate AJ Dybantsa and BYU, and then the heavily-favored Gonzaga. For a team with the joint-most losses of any at-large team in tournament history, that dropped 5 of their last 6 games before the tournament, this is already so much better than Longhorn faithful likely expected just a few weeks ago, even if they fall to Purdue in tomorrow's game. And if they continue to play the way they have over the last week, that is far from a given.

Iowa (9)

Beaten: (8) Clemson by 6, (1) Florida by 1

Texas may be the lowest-seeded team in the tournament, but I don't think it's a controversial take to say Iowa is by far the biggest Sweet 16 surprise. A team that beat only one ranked team all season and mostly crept into the tournament on the back of the Big Ten's strength was not expected to be much of a threat at all; in fact, they were underdogs in their very first game. But they knocked off 8th-seeded Clemson behind a stodgy defensive display, and showed absolutely no fear against reigning champs Florida in the Round of 32. Despite a hostile crowd in Tampa, Ben McCollum's squad held a lead for much of the first half, and just kept hanging around in the second every time the Gators looked poised to pull away, ultimately plunging the dagger on Alvaro Folgueiras's 3-pointer with 5 seconds remaining. Most everyone (myself included) expects that the road will end here for the Hawkeyes, but first of all, that doesn't render this run any less impressive already. And second of all, that one ranked win I mentioned earlier? Guess who it came against? That's right, tomorrow's opponents and Big Ten rivals, Nebraska. Who says lightning can't strike twice?

Updated Final Four Picks:

East: (3) Michigan State

West: (1) Arizona

Midwest: (1) Michigan

South: (2) Houston