Premier League Predictions, Week 38

© Micah Veldkamp, 2026

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Welcome back to the weekly predictions, everyone! Welcome, in the immortal words of "One Last Time" by Ariana Grande (2014), for "one last time." Yes, we have reached the last week of the Premier League season. I can scarcely believe it. This time tomorrow, we will have crowned a new champion, know all 5 (or 6!) teams headed for Champions League football, and know the 3 condemned for relegation.

Of course we know most of these answers by now, including the champions, as earlier this week, Arsenal's win and Manchester City's draw officially sealed the Gunners' first league title since 2004. Exactly, as you may recall, as I predicted! Arsenal's ultimately clinching victory was less resounding than I had forecast, but the 1-1 draw the next day between Bournemouth and Manchester City went precisely as I expected it would, as did the 2-1 match between Chelsea and Tottenham (although whoops, I got the winner wrong). I completely whiffed on the Liverpool-Aston Villa match, but my correct "Newcastle over West Ham" prediction salvaged a nice 4/5 week for me in the penultimate outing.

That's enough to set me up at a 91/165 clip on the year. I'll fall short of the 100 mark I was trying to reach, but am looking in far better shape than I feared I would be just a few weeks ago. But, the matches are kicking off for the last time in less than 24 hours, so no time for patting myself on the back. Here are your 5 for Week 38!

Manchester City vs. Aston Villa

Well, this is not going to the potential title-sealing clash that Manchester City hoped it would be after all. After the fond memories for City fans of their stunning 3-goal comeback over Villa in the 2022 finale to rip the trophy away from Liverpool, you know the belief would have been there that they could do it again. Instead, it's a match between two sides who came up short in the title race but are still walking away from a great season with hardware. And for Man City specifically, it's a chance for them to send Pep Guardiola off with a win, the legendary manager officially confirming this week will be his last at the helm of the club. As disappointed as the players will be to have come up short in the title race, they have a chance to end the season on a high, with a win to take them above 80 pts. and second place along with their two domestic trophies... not a bad rebound season at all, that! I think the significance of what they're playing for vastly trumps that of a Villa team who's probably still hung over from celebrating their Europa League triumph on Wednesday...

The Pick: Man City, 2-0

Liverpool vs. Brentford

...a win for Villa, and a hypothetical loss tomorrow, which would have a big ripple effect! Starting with this match: Liverpool's capitulation at Villa last Friday perfectly summed up their frustrating season, and yet, (somehow) with a win tomorrow and a City win over Villa, the Reds could still finish 4th place. As miserable as this season has been for most Liverpool fans, a Top 4 finish and quarterfinal runs in the Champions League and FA Cup, plus an enormous bevy of mitigating factors, really isn't that disastrous a season at all. Despite that, there will still be calls from many for the team to move on from Arne Slot, and I will say, if Liverpool manage to squander Champions League qualification from the seemingly secure position they were in just a couple weeks ago, it will be hard to read anything into that other than the squad rebelling against him. But regardless of whatever politics may exist in the clubhouse, I think Champions League football and sending Liverpool legends Mohamed Salah and Andy Robertson off with a win will be too much of a dangling carrot to pass up...

The Pick: Liverpool, 3-1

Nottingham Forest vs. Bournemouth

...and what significance those two matches, should they play out that way, could have on the South Coast! For if, in fact, Aston Villa do lose and Liverpool do win, that opens up the 6th-place spot for Champions League football as Villa would be knocked down to 5th place but their spot in the tournament is already booked through their Europa League triumph. The team currently in 6th place is Bournemouth, and if they were to stumble, the team prepared to benefit is their coast-mates Brighton. But it's Andoni Iraola's Bournemouth that have been the more consistent of the two, having not been beaten in the year 2026, a stretch that includes 8 points against the likes of Arsenal, Manchester City, Aston Villa and Liverpool. The Cherries are so close to an amazing moment in their small club's history, and thought Nottingham (and Brighton) would love to spoil it, I think they'll see it through.

The Pick: Bournemouth, 3-2

West Ham United vs. Leeds United

Tottenham Hotspur vs. Everton

Other than the Champions League race, the only question up in the air to be answered with tomorrow's matches is that of which team will join Burnley and Wolverhampton in being relegated back down to the Championship next season. West Ham, currently in 18th place, have certainly seemed the likelier of the two in recent weeks, but Tottenham have squandered their last two opportunities to secure safety, fighting to a combined 1 total point from their last 2 matches. That said, given the goal difference discrepancy, just a draw will do for Spurs barring a record-setting West Ham victory. And though the Hammers do have the easier fixture (on paper) of the two, Leeds seem the side likelier to play for pride at this point than Everton, whose dream of European football ebbed away in the last month of the season. At Newcastle last week, West Ham looked like a team that knew their fate. I think Tottenham survives again. Just. Just.

The Picks: Tottenham, 2-1; West Ham/Leeds draw 2-2