The Nominees: Album Of The Year
- Daniel Woodiwiss
- 1 day ago
- 12 min read
Beyoncé has famously been scorned in the Album of the Year race not once, not twice, not thrice, but FOUR times. Will it be 5 times lucky for her "country and everything else" album?
Mere days remain until the Grammys ceremony, and the last general category up in our pre-Grammys preview is also the biggest award of the night: Album of the Year! If you missed it, below are the three other major awards we've already previewed:
As has been discussed on this blog many a time, this is the closest equivalent to a Best Picture for the Grammys. Album of the Year recognizes a full catalog of musicianship, and historically, this is the one category the Grammys have actually done a fairly good job of nominating the best in addition to the biggest. That being said, that has not always (or even often) translated to the best body of work actually winning the prize. Case in point: in alternating years, Kendrick Lamar and Beyoncé lost the award despite having the biggest AND best albums of their respective eligibility periods. The winners haven't provided much clarity either: where Kacey Musgraves' victory in 2019 for Golden Hour might have signified a change in the tide in that regard, Billie Eilish's clean sweep of the major awards the next year, including a win in this category for When We All Fall Asleep, Where Do We Go? was a reversion to "biggest name wins. Then, the year following, all theories, trends and prognosticators were thrown aside when the award stunningly went to Jon Batiste for his record We Are. But then in the next two years, the award just went to the pop star du jour, with Harry Styles in 2023 and Taylor Swift in 2024, before finally coming to Beyoncé last year. So, in other words, who really knows?
In my preview of the contenders for this award last fall, I did highlight all but one of the eventual nominees as possible names you'd hear called, even if I only correctly predicted 3 of the 8! I did, in fairness, name 3 other eventual nominees in my next tier, leaving just a couple names here that I really did not expect to be included. But before I toot my own horn too much, for the most part it really just took paying attention to who the biggest names in music were over the last year and a half, and predicting winners is not that simple: if the last couple years has taught us anything, it's to expect the unexpected. So, let those guessing games begin!
In order from worst to best odds, according to GoldDerby.com:
MUTT - Leon Thomas
Odds: 0.07%
Peak Chart Position (Billboard): 35th
Metacritic rating: 80
Strongest Song: "MUTT"
Weakest Song: "SAFE PLACE"
Daniel's Overall Rating: 8/10
Just about every Album of the Year race (especially in the era of larger fields) has at least one shock nominee, and this year the lone surprise of the bunch is Leon Thomas's MUTT. It's not just that he's an R&B artist, representing a genre that hardly has gotten the representation it does at the Grammys. It's not just that this album came out in 2024 without much fanfare. It's that Leon Thomas has only really broken out in the last year-- also landing a nomination for Best New Artist --but also hasn't really broken through to the mainstream at all! MUTT is his best charting release, and even this one didn't make much of a splash, peaking at # 35 on the charts, only barely cracking the Top 10 R&B releases at its peak. Still, it's an exciting inclusion. MUTT is really smooth listening; not too many songs apart from the opener and the title track stick out, but it's a very consistent record start to finish, that plays a little bit like Frank Ocean by way of D'Angelo. Leon is the longshot of longshots in this race, but clearly has enough goodwill in the industry to have landed a nomination in the first place! Who's to say that bank of support plus a sonically pleasing offering to the uncommitteds amongst the voting base isn't enough to pull off a stunner tomorrow night?
Let God Sort 'Em Out - Clipse
Odds: 0.22%
Peak Chart Position (Billboard): 4th
Metacritic rating (out of 100): 83
Strongest Song: "So Be It"
Weakest Song: "So Far Ahead"
Daniel's Overall Rating: 9/10
Clipse's nomination wasn't nearly the shock Leon Thomas's was, but was still a welcome surprise in this field. I thought Let God Sort 'Em Out was a shoo-in for a Best Rap Album nomination this year, but I didn't think the Academy was hip enough yet to give it the even bigger flowers it deserved; I was happy to be wrong. Malice and Pusha T, also known as Clipse, last collaborated on an album in 2009, before going their separate ways with their Rap careers. Their comeback as a duo in 2025 was the biggest brother reunion this side of Oasis, and they showed no signs of rust in their chemistry. Let God Sort ‘Em Out is not just one of the more universally acclaimed releases this year, it's also a masterclass of two artists with distinct strengths bouncing off each other well and providing their own takes on a common theme. More than that, it's pretty damn close to a "no skips" album, which has been a rarity for Rap releases in recent years; and as a fun cherry on top, it includes features from two fellow Album of the Year AND Best Rap Album nominees, Kendrick Lamar and Tyler the Creator. Charting in the Billboard Top 5, it was also the best performing album in their discography, and 2nd only to Pusha T's It's Almost Dry in either individual's commercial performance. This is one of the awards at the Grammys that every single eligible voting member of the Recording Academy votes on, so Clipse's lack of name recognition compared to most of the other nominees here is likely what puts them at such long odds. But if they have enough recognition to get them to this point, that's a good sign of an evolving Academy, and an evolving Academy will know that this was one of the best albums and the biggest moments in music from the last year. That makes Let God Sort 'Em Out a formidable choice.
SWAG - Justin Bieber
Odds: 0.37%
Peak Chart Position (Billboard): 2nd
Metacritic rating: 67
Strongest Song: "WALKING AWAY"
Weakest Song: "FIRST PLACE"
Daniel's Overall Rating: 7/10
When Justin Bieber went viral in Spring 2025 for images and videos of him appearing unwell, possibly under the influence, and beefing with fans, I'm not sure many expected him to be here. Less than a month after he inexplicably told a group of onlookers that it wasn't "clocking to [them], that he's standing on business," Bieber's 7th album SWAG was surprise-released (including a track titled "Standing on Business"), with over 20 tracks included. The attention he garnered prior to album release, however unwelcome it might have felt at the time, might have worked in his favor, as SWAG shot to # 2 in the charts, even amidst mixed reviews and the lack of any real lead single. I'll confess, I liked it a lot more than I anticipated I would; it's more a large collection (again, over 20!) of short tracks than a real concept album-- even though it does include skits with Druski --or a hit-driven record. But it is a really smooth listen, more R&B than Pop in truth, that serves as a reminder that love him or hate him, Justin is one of the best male vocalists in the game. Even all these years into his career, it's clear there's a limit to the level of acceptance Bieber has with music fans, even as he clearly has a large fanbase, and given the critical mixed opinion on this album, that fact might too steep a mountain to climb. But there's no question he's one of, if not THE biggest name among these nominees, and this is not exactly a murderers' row compared to previous years. Might his sheer star power and two previous trips in this category without success make this his big moment?
CHROMAKOPIA - Tyler the Creator
Odds: 1.47%
Peak Chart Position (Billboard): 1st
Metacritic rating: 85
Strongest Song: "Like Him"
Weakest Song: "Judge Judy"
Daniel's Overall Rating: 7.5/10
Tyler, the Creator is not exactly what you would call a typical Grammy contender: after all, an awards show that his historically poor at recognizing Black creatives and hip-hop is unlikely to properly celebrate one of the most creative and dare I say outlandish hip-hop artists today. Yet, Tyler did take home Best Rap Album for both IGOR in 2020 and Call Me If You Get Lost in 2022, so it stood to reason that CHROMAKOPIA, his 3rd straight # 1, critically-acclaimed album, would be a strong Rap contender again. But an Album of the Year nod? That's the clearest sign yet that this isn't your father's Grammys. I've listened to the album quite a few times all the way through since its release in late 2024, thinking each time that my opinion on it would change, but it really hasn't. I respect the hell out of Tyler's artistry and the vision and diversity of sound on this one is second to none. It's just also really dense and straight up difficult to listen to at times. I admire and greatly esteem this project, but truthfully also could not name more than a maximum of 3 songs I would return to from it. Indeed, Tyler's style is still somewhat divisive, and in a year with two other Rap nominees for Album of the Year, it seems likely a Hip-Hop winner would come from a more conventional place, like Clipse's or Kendrick Lamar's album. But with his continued rise in popularity and esteem, and signs of actual progress in diversity among the Academy, this really could be Tyler's big breakthrough.
GNX - Kendrick Lamar
Odds: 5.62%
Peak Chart Position (Billboard): 1st
Metacritic rating: 87
Strongest Song: "luther"
Weakest Song: "man in the garden"
Daniel's Overall Rating: 9.5/10
2024 was already etched into the music history books when, in the penultimate week of November, the greatest rapper in the game decided to fuck around and drop a surprise album. GNX's sole promotion was a 30-second teaser on social media that dropped approximately an hour before the full album...unless, of course, if you count the year that Kendrick Lamar had already had as promotion. And perhaps we should: none of the songs from Kendrick's legendary beef with Drake were on this album, but the same bravado, cutting lyricism, black excellence and hometown pride that fueled his comprehensive 'win' and iconic victory tour afterward shine throughout this record. Catapulting to the top of the charts before his Super Bowl performance, which in turn kicked off his wildly successful arena tour, no rapper has owned the better part of two calendar years the way he did in 2024 and 2025. Kendrick's 6th studio album has nothing on any of its predecessors in terms of storytelling. This is not to say the lyrics are bad-- Kendrick's 'worst' is probably better than 95% of today's music world's best --rather that, perhaps for the first time in his career, they seem to take a backseat in significance to the theme of L.A./West Coast pride, the expansive production and trap beats, and to showcasing several lesser-known West Coast artists. It is is an unbelievably sleek album, and the smoothest listen of any work he's released since good kid-- so deep in good tracks that my favorite song from GNX has changed numerous times (upon my most recent listen, I do think it's "luther"). That the odds for Kendrick are this low are likely down to a combination of concerns over vote-splitting with the other Rap nominees, the more recent releases dominating , and the big names in Pop he's up against. And that may enough to sink his chances once more! But the reigning Song of the Year and Record of the Year winner has just about everything you would want to see from an Album of the Year contender: chart performance, critical acclaim, a smash lead single, and a revered artist who would be a first-time winner.
Man's Best Friend - Sabrina Carpenter
Odds: 15%
Peak Chart Position (Billboard): 1st
Metacritic rating: 75
Strongest Song: "House Tour"
Weakest Song: "We Almost Broke Up Again Last Night"
Daniel's Overall Rating: 6.5/10
One year after announcing her arrival on the Grammy stage with 6 nominations (including for this very award), a win for Best Pop Album and Best Pop Song, and a terrific performance, Sabrina Carpenter is back for more. She wasted no time with her sophomore effort, releasing Man's Best Friend just 12 months (almost exactly) after her debut album, and found an immediate return to the top of the charts, breaking the Spotify record for most streams in a day. Similarly to its predecessor Short n' Sweet, it found mostly positive reviews from critics as well, most dazzled by the still young star's songwriting and natural popstar potential. Speaking as someone who has found himself thoroughly charmed by Sabrina Carpenter over the last year or so, I was pretty "meh" on this particular album. I bowled over by Short n' Sweet either, in fairness, but found it wall-to-wall pleasant and fun, with the occasional total banger. Sabrina hasn't suddenly lost all her pop sensibilities so this is still mostly enjoyable, but it lacks the real bangers of the last one ("Tears" and "House Tour" are as fun and groovy as it gets, but even those fall well short of the infectious level of "Espresso" and "Please Please Please") and is far more hit-or-miss overall. The good news, as I said in my Record of the Year preview, my personal opinion does matter not for the purpose of a Grammys race, and there are clearly a large number of admirers in the Academy. The large fanbase Sabrina has rapidly cultivated, her natural charisma, and the massive commercial success of this record and its ensuing tour make her a strong contender indeed.
Mayhem - Lady Gaga
Odds: 25.69%
Peak Chart Position (Billboard): 1st
Metacritic rating: 84
Strongest Song: "Die With A Smile"
Weakest Song: "Blade of Grass"
Daniel's Overall Rating: 8.5/10
In a quieter year for most of the big names in Pop, one of the 21st century’s biggest Pop stars dropped an album that marked her true return to pop royalty after a decade-plus of breaking into acting and forays into more traditional R&B and even Country records. The release of Mayhem was first teased at last year's Grammys, in fact, with the surprise release (via live commercial) of lead single "Abracadabra" and its accompanying music video. Lady Gaga's album was an instant sensation, selling out almost immediately, and shooting to the top of the charts and Spotify streaming numbers both. As someone whose appreciation of Gaga and pop music in general mostly came about after her era of ruling the charts, it was fun to be involved in the zeitgeist this time around. And boy, Mayhem did not disappoint. A touch long, perhaps; 2 or 3 songs could have been trimmed from the tracklist without negatively impacting the album. But, from the unmistakable opening vocal run of "Disease," to the soulful closing chords of "Die With A Smile," this was high-energy, pure pop rock brilliance. If there ever were a year for Lady Gaga to break her Grammys duck, it would be this one: her re-ascension to the Pop throne was one of the biggest developments from the music world in 2025, and Mayhem checks the same commercial, critcial and storyline boxes Kendrick's album does.
DeBÍ TIRAR MáS FOToS - Bad Bunny
Odds: 51.54%
Peak Chart Position (Billboard): 1st
Metacritic rating: 95
Strongest Song: "PERFuMITO NUEVO"
Weakest Song: "EoO"
Daniel's Overall Rating: 8.5/10
The Grammys don't have the strongest record of recognizing Latinx artists, be it reggaeton, bachata, or otherwise. In fact, just last year, Bad Bunny had an eligible release that was not an Album of the Year nominee, nor wide recipient anywhere. Yet, the nomination of DeBÍ TIRAR MáS FOToS for Album of the Year still felt totally inevitable. Few if any artists had the year Bad Bunny had in 2025. He has been one of the biggest global stars for some time now, and his fame only heightened this last year with another acclaimed album release, being a virtual mainstay on Saturday Night Live, and another wildly successful global tour. He made headlines for keeping said tour out of the United States, but that didn't deter Roc Nation and the powers that be from tabbing him for the Super Bowl Halftime Show, which will take place exactly one week from tomorrow. Unsurprisingly for one of the biggest artists in the World, DTMF shattered streaming record worldwide, and became his 4th consecutive # 1 album here in the States. I'll be honest, this particular release didn't stick with me quite as much as 2022's Un verano sin ti -- his only other Album of the Year nomination --did, though I did like it more upon my most recent album. It flows together really nicely over the hour-plus runtime, though. Perhaps with less individual standout songs, yes, but a consistent body of work with a cohesive style and story throughout. For a show that demonstrated last year a renewed interest in being up with the here and now, I have to imagine Bad Bunny will be among the favorite to take top honors among a field that feels much more open than most years. Yes, there's little historical precedent for a Benito victory tomorrow. But this is a new generation of voters in the Grammy base, and besides, when in doubt? Go with the biggest. And this album, this tour and its news media, Bad Bunny himself? It's the moment.
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