2026 Grammy Predictions

Tonight, "music's biggest night" returns in the form of the 68th Grammys ceremony! This ceremony will mostly reflect the best of 2025, but technically reflects the music from the 'eligibility period' of the latter part of 2024, an unusually strong year in music, through last August.

The awards show will be in the Lakers' Staples Center (I refuse to call it by its new name), as it usually is, and will bring back Trevor Noah as host for the sixth straight year. It's an occasion that's been marked by tragedy and difficulty numerous times this decade. The 2020 show just preceded the outbreak of COVID, but came the same day as the tragic death of Kobe Bryant and his daughter. The next two years were affected by the pandemic: the 2021 ceremony took place delayed, with no fans, mostly outside the Los Angeles Convention Center, and the 2022 ceremony was also delayed and moved to Las Vegas to skirt California's COVID precautions. And then last year, the city of angels again played triumphant host to the ceremony yet again, despite the tragic fires that ravaging Southern California in the weeks before it. Considering all that's happened in the 2020s already, and all that's gone on in L.A. thanks to the Trump administration's ICE gestapo infiltration, I'm sure the city will be thankful for a night (hopefully) without incident to celebrate music. There's also no Taylor Swift nominations this year. Nature is healing!!

Though the Grammys have often been besotted by criticisms of valuing commercial success over critically acclaimed music, (criticisms I find wholly valid, for what it’s worth), the show remains the premier music awards out there. And, though they often evade glory, many wonderful and deserving artists and bands are typically nominees, and that is no different this year.

If you’re curious about the nominees for all the awards, not just the 12 I'm highlighting in this article, you can find them listed nicely here. But this is devoted to my best guess as to what will win. I’m not guaranteeing a high success rate because, let’s be honest, who knows what will win? Sometimes they give all the major awards to the big stars, like Beyoncé and Billie Eilish. Sometimes they distribute the wealth all over, like in the last four awards shows. Other times, the big winners are total wildcards like Jon Batiste or Beck. In short: I have some idea, but really no idea, who and what will win. All I can do is try! Here goes:

GENRE

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Best Music Video

• "Anxiety" - Doechii (James Mackel, director)

• "Love" - OK Go (Aaron Duffy, Miguel Espada, and Damian Kulash, Jr., co-directors)

• “Manchild” - Sabrina Carpenter (Vania Heymann and Gal Muggia, co-directors)

• “So Be It" - Clipse (Hannan Hussain, director)

• “Young Lion” - Sade (Sophie Muller, director)

Will Win: "Manchild"

Could Win: “Anxiety"

Should Win: “Young Lion"

Anything BUT: “Manchild”

Snubbed: "Abracadabra" - Lady Gaga (Lady Gaga, Parris Goebel, and Bethany Vargas, co-directors)

Arguably the biggest snub of the entire Grammys is one that probably didn't even register with anyone, given that this is a category that is never even aired during the ceremony. But how Lady Gaga's "Abracadabra" didn't make this field is absolutely beyond me. That music video was the only one from the last year that was a moment in and of itself, announcing the return of not only Lady Gaga but her avant-garde pop themes. It was co-directed by the star herself, featured striking imagery, fashion and choreography, and oh yeah, aired during the last Grammys ceremony!!!! It should have been a shoo-in to win this award, let alone be nominated. Anyhow, at least all 5 videos that did make the cut are good, for different reasons. A win for "Anxiety" or "Manchild" would feel boring, not just because both songs are forgettable and frequently nominated elsewhere tonight, but also are more a result of an impressive budget than an artistic vision; at least the former has some great choreography work by the artist. OK Go are the kings of the music video and unsurprisingly has the most technically impressive feat here, Clipse's was the coolest and the one I enjoyed the most, but only Sade's brought me to tears. So you couldn't really go wrong picking any of those.

Despite a divisive reception, Doechii's "Anxiety" landed a large number of nominations at these Grammys. Could the song pick up an early win in this category and spell a good night for Doechii?

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Best Alternative Album

• Don't Tap The Glass – Tyler, the Creator

• Ego Death At A Bachelorette Party – Hayley Williams

• Moisturizer – Wet Leg

• SABLE, fABLE – Bon Iver

• Songs Of A Lost World – The Cure

Will Win: SABLE, fABLE

Could Win: Ego Death At A Bachelorette Party

Should Win: Ego Death At A Bachelorette Party

Anything BUT: Songs Of A Lost World

Snubbed: Forever Is A Feeling - Lucy Dacus

Best Alternative Album, which tends to be one of the sneaky-good categories that doesn't make the televised broadcast, is back with a solid field yet again. Three of the nominees got mentions in my recent Best Albums of 2025, and though The Cure and Wet Leg did not, I feel positively enough about them as bands to be fine with their inclusion. I have to say, while I wasn't a huge fan of Don't Tap The Glass, I do think it's so cool to see Tyler get a nomination in this category. It was a wild swing for the rapper to release a Dance/Alt-Pop album out of nowhere in 2025, and it's refreshing to see the Grammys not just plop him in the Rap or R&B categories simply because he's a Black Hip-Hop artist. Bon Iver has always gotten a lot of love from the Grammys over the years, but actually hasn't won this particular award since 2012, and I suspect that adoration and absence from the stage will be enough to win him his second Alternative Album Grammy. That said, it could go to the buzziest alternative release of the last year, and that would be my personal pick: Hayley Williams's Ego Death At A Bachelorette Party is a brilliant collision of pop, punk, and indie rock, in which the Paramore frontwoman Hayley cements her reputation as a terrific songwriter.

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Best Rap Performance

• "Anxiety" - Doechii

• "Chains & Whips" - Clipse feat. Kendrick Lamar

• "Darling, I" - Tyler, the Creator feat. Teezo Touchdown

• "Outside" - Cardi B

• "tv off" - Kendrick Lamar

Will Win: "Anxiety"

Could Win: "tv off"

Should Win: "Chains & Whips"

Anything BUT: "Anxiety"

Snubbed: "4 Raws" - EsDeeKid

It's funny, 2024 felt like a much better year for Rap than 2025 did, but because a handful of the best and most influential releases of 2024 came in the latter part of that year, it's these Grammys in which Hip-Hop is taking center stage. This is one of four different major races in which the trio of Clipse, Kendrick Lamar and Tyler, the Creator go head-to-head, and in this category they face off with the formidable one-two punch of hit singles from the last two female Best Rap Album winners. I loved Clipse's album and really respected Tyler's album too, but Kendrick Lamar is my G.O.A.T. and "tv off" my favorite song off of his album, so naturally my inclination is to cheer for that to win. That said, I do actually think his feature verse on Clipse's pulsating "Chains & Whips" is as hard (if not harder) than anything on his own GNX, and this would be a nice cheat code for both he and Clipse to win a deserving Grammy. I truly have no clue which one will win this one, though, as no songs feel like a clear favorite the way we so often have in this category, so I'm gonna default to predicting the (unlikely) biggest hit of them all.

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Best Rap Song

• "Anxiety" - Doechii

• "The Birds Don't Sing" - Clipse feat. John Legend

• "Sticky" - Tyler, the Creator feat. GloRilla, Sexyy Red & Lil Wayne

• "TGIF" - GloRilla

• "tv off" – Kendrick Lamar
  

Will Win: "The Birds Don't Sing"

Could Win: "tv off"

Should Win: "Sticky"

Anything BUT:  "Anxiety"

Snubbed: "Glory" - JID

This field looks similar to the Best Rap "Performance" field (and truthfully I'd be lying if I said I knew what the difference between the two was): "Anxiety" and "tv off" once again are strong contenders, but this time facing a different Clipse track and a different Tyler track, and GloRilla subs in for Cardi B as the 'banger from a female rapper' candidate. I'm just as unsure about who will win this one; Kendrick is always the safest bet in Grammy Rap races, but he just won both this and Rap Performance last year for "Not Like Us," and "tv off" wasn't nearly the biggest hit. It could, using the same logic I used for my prediction above, of course go to "Anxiety" as that was the biggest, at least of this bunch. But I dunno, I have a feeling Clipse won't leave tonight without at least one significant win on the night, and this feels like the one in which they might do it. "The Birds Don't Sing" earned a broader fanbase than "Chains & Whips" did, especially after the history-making live performance at The Vatican, and I think the vulnerable lyricism and emotional vocals from John Legend might win over hearts. I love this song and have already discussed my love for "tv off," so you know I'd be delighted with a win for either, but this is the one contest in all of their various head-to-heads on the night that I would actually be perfectly happy with a win for Tyler, the Creator. "Sticky" was an absolute bumper, the clear best off of "CHROMAKOPIA," and a tune that took over social media, Hip-Hop stations. and even marching bands in late '24-'25.

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Best Rap Album

• CHROMAKOPIA – Tyler, the Creator

• Glorious - GloRilla

• GNX – Kendrick Lamar

• God Does Like Ugly – JID

• Let God Sort Em Out – Clipse

Will Win: Let God Sort Em Out

Could Win: GNX

Should Win: Let God Sort Em Out

Anything BUT: Glorious

Snubbed: STAR LINE - Chance the Rapper

As far back as I can remember, the Best Pop Album field has been the most predictive for and/or most similar to the Album of the Year race. That changed this year, where for the first time in Grammy history, 3 different Rap albums are up for the big award, and as such, the Best Rap Album race might truly be the one to watch if you want a sense of what's poised to win the biggest award of them all later on. It's an undoubtedly strong lineup, bringing in the chronically underrated JID for his only nomination of the night, and it could have been made even stronger with one small tweak: I like GloRilla and don't mind her breaking up the Gentlemen's Club (tm), but in truth, I thought Chance The Rapper's much-anticipated return release was much stronger and would have marked a nice comeback moment for the former Best New Artist winner. Kendrick and Tyler have 5 combined Best Rap Album wins between them, each one winning this award for each of their last 2 releases (and in Kendrick's case, last 3). That sort of consistent acclaim can't be overlooked in a race like this. Between the two, Tyler's pedigree still pales in comparison to Kendrick's, but conversely, CHROMAKOPIA both feels like the more artistically-impressive and forward-looking choice. All that being said... I mentioned I feel like Clipse will bring home at least one big win tonight, and taking home this one also feels very realistic. Let God Sort Em Out was brilliant and one of the biggest stories in Rap this last year. What's more, this isn't a General race where lack of mainstream recognition might hurt them; the people voting on this are in the Hip-Hop industry specifically, and respect the hell out of these guys and know what a first-ever Best Rap Album win would mean for them. I would love to see it, personally; think I prefer GNX by the tiniest margin, but Kendrick has his wins and I will be cheering harder for him in some of the other races on the night.

 The trifecta of Tyler, the Creator, Kendrick Lamar and Clipse are nominated all throughout the Rap categories, as well as for Album of the Year. Will the spoils be shared, or is 1 of the 3 poised to run away with a massive haul tonight?

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Best Pop Duo/Group Performance

• "30 For 30" – SZA feat. Kendrick Lamar

• "APT." – ROSÉ & Bruno Mars

• "Defying Gravity" (from Wicked) - Cynthia Erivo & Ariana Grande

• "Gabriela" – KATSEYE

• "Golden" (from KPop Demon Hunters) – Huntrix

Will Win: "APT."

Could Win: "Golden"

Should Win: "Golden"

Anything BUT: "APT."

Snubbed: "Walk of Fame" - Miley Cyrus feat. Brittany Howard

It feels like Pop has become increasingly individualized, to the point that this category doesn't often include nearly the same level of recognizable hits that the Pop Solo categories (see below) generate. This year, though, it's an impressive crop: two hits that are also nominated for Song of the Year, a collaboration between two artists also nominated for some of the biggest awards on the night for a different collab, the biggest song from a Best New Artist nominee, and the hit song from the biggest movie of 2024. It's not out of the question that "Defying Gravity" will sneak a win in this category, given the crossover potential for film nuts and musicheads, though technically that's true of "Golden" too, the viral hit from one of the bigger 2025 releases. It's possible the combined star power of SZA and Kendrick Lamar-- as well as the rare opportunity for Pop voters to give them a Grammy --will carry them to an upset win here as well. But ROSÉ and Bruno Mars' unlikely collaboration has numerous nominations on the night, and the two are slated to perform in the ceremony, which often spells a win somewhere. Given the uphill battle "APT." faces in the Song and Record of the Year races, I think this category will be where it gets its victory.

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Best Pop Solo Performance

• "DAISIES" - Justin Bieber

• "Disease" - Lady Gaga

• "Manchild" – Sabrina Carpenter

• "Messy" – Lola Young

• "The Subway" – Chappell Roan

Will Win: "Manchild"

Could Win: "Messy"

Should Win: "The Subway"

Anything BUT: "Manchild"

Snubbed: "Diet Pepsi" - Addison Rae

Safe to say, one year removed from the greatest year in Pop in recent memory, the world of pop music had much more slim pickins in 2025, and as such, most races seem to be a Sabrina vs. Lady Gaga showdown, both here and in the Album/Record/Song of the Year categories. Technically, Justin Bieber is a nominee in each of the above as well, but his album SWAG and lead single "DAISES" made so much less a cultural impact than he usually does and than both ladies, that it's difficult to see him coming up a winner in these categories. This award feels like the most obvious win for either frontrunner; were Lady Gaga's "Abracadabra" here rather than the less omnipresent "Disease," it might be a different story, but Sabrina Carpenter's "Manchild" was by far the biggest smash hit of this bunch, and this is the easiest category to award the track that has 5 nominations on the night. It's too bad, really; despite my affection for Sabrina, the egregiously overproduced "Manchild" is pretty forgettable by her standards. I would have loved to see a slightly more underground bop like Addison Rae's "Diet Pepsi" crash the field instead, and regardless, would be cheering for Chappell Roan's underrated vocal performance on "The Subway." One more thing: if there's to be an upset in this one, keep an eye out for "Messy." Lola Young is unlikely to win Best New Artist, and this is the only other chance on the night for the breakout star to win a Grammy, which would likely provide a poignant moment for the artist who was vocal and public about her mental health struggles in the last year.

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Best Pop Vocal Album 

• I've Tried Everything But Therapy (Part 2) – Teddy Swims

• Man's Best Friend – Sabrina Carpenter

• Mayhem – Lady Gaga

• Something Beautiful – Miley Cyrus

• SWAG – Justin Bieber

Will Win: Mayhem

Could Win: Man's Best Friend

Should Win: Mayhem

Anything BUT: I've Tried Everything But Therapy (Part 2)

Snubbed: Addison - Addison Rae

I'm mildly surprised this was Miley Cyrus's nomination at these Grammys; the 2024 Record of the Year winner's latest album was her most-acclaimed yet, but the general lack of attention paid to it makes me think she's running a distant 3rd or 4th place here. If I'm mildly surprised by that, though, I'm downright gobsmacked by Teddy Swims being here-- real "polar bear in Arlington" vibes. Speaking as someone who was skeptical of the hype for a very long time, I'm genuinely pretty stunned there wasn't more recognition for Best New Artist nominee Addison Rae's work, especially amongst a relatively weak year for Pop. But anyhow, of the candidates that have a real shot at winning: just like the Best Rap Album field, this category includes 3 nominees that are also up for Album of the Year. But given that Justin Bieber is presumably a much longer shot to win any of them, this one could provide some insight as to who between Lady Gaga and Sabrina Carpenter is in for the bigger night. The last clear two-horse race for the Pop Album Grammy that I can think of was 5 years ago between Dua Lipa and Taylor Swift, and they ended up splitting, with Future Nostalgia taking this award and folklore winning Album of the Year. Typically I've said that a big tell is which awards make the primetime ceremony, and by that I mean, if a big name isn't gonna win Album of the Year later on, the Grammys will make sure to air their category win so they still get to have their winning moment onstage. However, that trend hasn't held true the last three years, with Harry Styles, Swift, and Beyoncé each getting to accept both their Pop/Country Album and Album of the Year wins during the primetime ceremony. So in other words, a Lady Gaga win here doesn't rule her out for Album of the Year later, nor does it mean Sabrina Carpenter can't win that one, and vice versa. In the absence of knowing the outcomes of the General races, I think the Pop voters will slightly favor the storyline of the return of their beloved queen, but it's certainly not out of the question they're ready to just celebrate the Gen Z energy of the reigning winner.

Lady Gaga and Sabrina Carpenter basically ran pop music in the year 2025 and as a result, find themselves in the same races throughout the Pop categories as well as for the "Big 3" awards. Will Gaga reclaim the Pop throne, or can Sabrina mark an official changing of the guard with her 2nd consecutive Pop Album victory?

GENERAL

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Best New Artist

• Addison Rae

• Alex Warren

• KATSEYE

• Leon Thomas

• Lola Young

• The Marías

• Olivia Dean

• sombr

Will Win: Olivia Dean

Could Win: Leon Thomas

Should Win: Olivia Dean

Anyone BUT: Alex Warren

Snubbed: PinkPantheress

If you've kept up with The Couch, you will know that a couple weeks ago, I previewed this very award! Last year, this race had one of the most stacked fields in recent memory: eventual winner Chappell Roan, Sabrina Carpenter, Doechii, Shaboozey, RAYE and Teddy Swims are all nominees again tonight. This year feels a little like it's halfway between that 2025 race and the two years that preceded it, which truly was a free-for-all, with the closest thing to a mainstream breakout in either year being Noah Kahan (who didn't even end up winning). This field lacks the huge star power last year had, but still owns a big collection of names that those plugged into the Internet and TikTok music scenes will know have generated a lot of excitement over the last year, although the Academy did inexplicably leave out one of the buzziest of them all in the adored British starlet PinkPantheress. Leon Thomas is the most nominated of this group on the night, and the only one to also be up for Album of the Year, so you can't count out the possibility of him winning this, and most if not all of the other nominees gave us at least one breakout hit or moment in 2025, and wouldn't be the most shocking winner themselves. But this one does feel close to done and dusted for Olivia Dean, who exploded in popularity in the last quarter of the year after the release of her latest album The Art of Loving. She's the most current breakout of the bunch, she has the biggest current hit in "Man I Need," and probably most vitally of all, possesses a natural charm and universally agreeable sound that gives her cross-generational appeal.

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Song Of The Year

• "Abracadabra" - Lady Gaga

• "Anxiety" - Doechii

• "APT." - ROSÉ & Bruno Mars

• "DtMF" - Bad Bunny

• "Golden" - Huntrix

• "luther" - Kendrick Lamar & SZA

• "Manchild" - Sabrina Carpenter

• "WILDFLOWER" - Billie Eilish

Will Win: “Golden"

Could Win: “Abracadabra"

Should Win: “DtMF"

Anything BUT: “APT."

Snubbed: “The Subway" - Chappell Roan

Again, if you've kept up with The Couch, you know I also previewed this one! 2025 (especially early 2025) had some real greatness, but generally took a real step back from the insane amount of good music we were treated to in the year prior, and with no disrespect intended, the General fields exemplify that fact awfully well. The near-identical fields for Song and Record of the Year include a few tremendous shouts alongside a handful of some of the most basic or annoying hits the last year had to offer, but most damning of all, I can't think of many feasible nominees (i.e., a song that would realistically be on a majority of the Recording Academy's radar) that I would swap in for the place of one of those. Other than "The Subway," of course; Chappell Roan's wonderful, soulful single landed a Record of the Year nod at least, but inexplicably was left out of the running for 'the songwriter's award' despite being a music-and-lyrics-driven record. Although almost every nominee is up for Record as well, and no less than 4 of those artists are also in the running for Album of the Year, it's the lone exception that's the betting favorite: "Golden," the hit song from the wildly popular animated film KPop Golden Hunters. I think that actually works in its favor: despite how often we see double winners for Song and Record-- as we did last year with "Not Like Us" --the fact that one of, if not THE buzziest songs of the year could only win in this lane makes it an easy choice for any voters that may be on the fence, as does its history-making potential as a would-be KPop winner. It's hard to complain with that outcome, especially because Kendrick did just take home this award last year, but I'd be lying if I said I didn't find "luther" the much better song. Same goes for Bad Bunny's infectious melancholy on "DtMF"; this is the happiest I'd be with a Benito win in the General categories.

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Record Of The Year

• "Abracadabra" - Lady Gaga

• "Anxiety" - Doechii

• "APT." - ROSÉ & Bruno Mars

• "DtMF" - Bad Bunny

• "luther" - Kendrick Lamar & SZA

• "Manchild" - Sabrina Carpenter

• "The Subway" - Chappell Roan

• "WILDFLOWER" - Billie Eilish

Will Win: “Abracadabra"

Could Win: “Manchild"

Should Win: “luther"

Anything BUT: “Manchild"

Snubbed: “12 to 12" - sombr

Guess what? I also previewed this one! Perhaps unsurprisingly, given the high amount of overlap between the nominees for both awards, I consider the race for Record of the Year-- which recognizes the producer(s) rather than the songwriter(s) -- equal to, if not even stronger than that of Song of the Year. "The Subway" does make this field, and I'll certainly be cheering for Chappell, but ironically, the production on the song is far less deserving of acclaim than her own lyrics and voice is, in my opinion. I'm tempted to just do a straight swap and pick "Golden," whose spot Chappell subs in for in this race, as the biggest snub, and it's true that I'm shocked that one only made the Song of the Year shortlist and not this one. But truthfully, I would have liked even more if this race gave an opportunity for a banger from any of the talented Best New Artists, such as the addictive "12 to 12" by sombr. Kendrick and SZA's collaboration on "luther" is a popular bet, and would be a deserving winner; as good as the song as a whole is, Sounwave's production on it is immaculate. But Kendrick did just win last year, and this track (while huge) wasn't quite the same level of culturally impactful "Not Like Us" was, so I'm thinking this race will come down to one of the pop girlies. I have a hard time seeing Lady Gaga's "Abracadabra" leaving tonight without something, and given that "Manchild" seems the likelier to win in the Pop categories, I think this might be Gaga's smash single's best chance. If it does have to be one of the two huge Pop hits, this would definitely be the superior outcome; Sabrina's song is more mid than it is bad, but without a doubt the worst aspect of "Manchild" is its production.

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Album Of The Year

• CHROMAKOPIA – Tyler, the Creator

• DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS – Bad Bunny

• GNX – Kendrick Lamar

• Let God Sort Em Out – Clipse

• Man's Best Friend – Sabrina Carpenter

• Mayhem – Lady Gaga

• MUTT – Leon Thomas

• SWAG – Justin Bieber

Will Win: DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS

Could Win: Mayhem

Should Win: GNX

Anything BUT: SWAG

Snubbed: Hurry Up Tomorrow - The Weeknd

As I hinted at in my preview of this award (yeah, this one too!), this feels like a pretty open race compared to recent years. Last year was a pretty loaded field, but it never really felt like anyone apart from Beyoncé, Sabrina, Chappell, or Billie had a viable path to victory. Other recent years seemed to be pretty clear 2 or 3-horse races, too: Taylor Swift vs. SZA in 2023, Harry Styles vs. Beyoncé and Adele in '22, Olivia Rodrigo vs. Billie in '21 (which shockingly went to Jon Batiste, lol), and the aforementioned Dua-Taylor showdown. This year definitely has the same 'Top 4/Bottom 4' divide that last year had, but it does feel like there's both less of a strong frontrunner and more of a feasible argument as for why any of the 8 nominees could win. And truthfully, for how generally "meh" I feel about music from this year compared to last, there aren't really any names whose victory would make me mad. In fact, I struggle to think of any album that had a real shot that I would have rather seen in here: I liked and respected the Weeknd's and Lorde's work, for example, and was sad for them, but didn't lose an ounce of sleep over their snub. I didn't love Sabrina's album, but there's no denying its pop culture impact, and conversely, a win for Justin Bieber would feel incredibly silly, but I did enjoy SWAG a good bit more than I expected to.

Still, I think Tyler, the Creator and especially Clipse and Leon Thomas are just a little bit too off the radar of the general voting base to predict a surprise win for them, as cool as it would be. Bieber and Sabrina are too big of names to count out altogether, but it never has really felt like their albums specifically had the talk of the town the way Bad Bunny's, Lady Gaga's, and Kendrick's did. I would be pretty surprised if the winner doesn't come from one of those three, as just about every major storyline and moment from the world of music in late '24 through Summer '25 belonged to them.

Since the nominations were announced, I've spent time thinking each one of them might take this award. In fact, even before the nomination announcement, I've been saying that this finally felt like Kendrick's year. After all, like Beyoncé, he's simultaneously beloved by the Grammys yet has egregiously been overlooked for this very award, and Beyoncé's duck was finally broken last year. Furthermore, there's no question nobody had a bigger eligibility period (Sep. 2024-Aug. 2025) than K-Dot did, with the release of a new album, Grammy wins for Record and Song of the Year (just the 2nd Rap song to accomplish that), a Super Bowl Halftime Show, and a wildly successful international stadium tour. But, I dunno, it just seems like energy for Kendrick has long faded since the conclusion of his tour, and between the two fellow Rap nominees and his major Grammy wins last year, I'm not sure he has a unilateral 'storyline' edge over the field any more.

It's not often a Pop artist has that storyline angle, but Lady Gaga does this year. The only other real force on the Pop scene this year was Sabrina, whose album was not nearly as acclaimed, and who, just 2 albums in, has plenty more opportunities to make Grammy noise. But Gaga is one of the more revered figures in the Pop world, and has come to earn universal respect in the music world in general, yet has only even been nominated for this award twice before, let alone having never won it. If they're going to go a "career acheivement award for a cultural icon" route like they did last year, she's the obvious candidate.

All of that being said, though....I can't shake the feeling that the safest bet to win is, well, the betting favorite. It's not often that an artist could take home the Album of the Year Grammy and then perform at the Super Bowl Halftime Show one week later, and it's even less often that an artist like Bad Bunny wins an award like this. He would be the first Latino Album of the Year winner since Santana 25 years ago, and the first-ever Spanish-language and first-ever reggaeton/plena album to win. But these are atypical times in general, times perhaps more than ever have warranted an abnormal champion. Bad Bunny was one of the biggest, most prominent stories of 2025 as much for who he was off the stage as he was for who he was on it. I think a Recording Academy that's seemed to be more diverse and forward-thinking in recent years would be elated at the chance to make history and prove they have a better finger on the pulse of the music scene today. Plus, it's not like Benito's made it especially difficult for them: DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS is both the most critically-acclaimed and internationally successful nominee of the bunch. In a field that doesn't have the 'automatic winners' like Taylor Swift, Billie Eilish or Adele to contend with, that feels like an obvious recipe.

Don't like that answer? Well fear not, because Taylor Swift's Midnights winning two years ago was literally the only time I got this award prediction correct* in my 10 years of Grammy forecasting. So, you know, what the hell do I know!

*If you're curious, my incorrect picks through the years: Beyoncé's Lemonade (2017), Lorde's Melodrama (2018), Drake's Scorpion (2019), Lizzo's Cuz I Love You (2020), Dua Lipa's Future Nostalgia (2021), Olivia Rodrigo's SOUR (2022), Adele's 30 (2023), Chappell Roan's The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess (2025)

Bad Bunny is a Latin Grammys mainstay, and had his big breakthrough to the more general populace at the 2023 Grammys. Is 2026 the year his unstoppable rise puts a stamp in the history books with a first-ever Spanish-language Album of the Year winner?