Grammy Preview: Album of the Year Contestants
Though the 2023 Grammy Awards probably feel like something that will take place in some alternate future timeline, today marks just two weeks until the nominees for the ceremony are announced. Just like the last couple years, the final list of nominees will be announced Thanksgiving week, at which time voting begins for the final ceremony in February 2023.
Last year's Grammys were unlike any other-- postponed due to COVID concerns for the second straight year, and moved to a new venue Las Vegas for the first time ever. However, barring a new wave of concerns regarding Delta or any other variants, we likely will finally see a return to the Grammys we all knew and loved (right? we loved them, right?) before, filled with artists, fans, and seat-fillers alike in a venue such as Staples Center. That said, considering the eligibility period for this Grammys goes all the way back to late 2021, there's no question the never-ending pandemic, the election, and other tumultuous events of last year will still weigh heavily on the nominees and be talking points throughout the ceremony. And as such, we musicheads once again await with eager anticipation to see what from October 2021-September 2022 will be nominated for what is billed as “Music’s biggest night.” As always, my highest level of interest is in the Album of the Year award, widely considered to be the Grammy equivalent of the Best Picture. Let's take a look at some works that I expect to be in the running:
Surefire Candidates
30 // Adele
There are three guarantees in life: death, taxes, and Adele winning all of the major Grammys. 30 didn’t have nearly as many big hits as her previous two AOTY-winning albums did, but it might arguably be her most cohesive and mature album yet. Even if it wasn’t considered her most-esteemed body of work, there’s no way the Grammys will nominate 10 albums and not have one of them be Adele’s.
An Evening With Silk Sonic // Silk Sonic
Similarly, perhaps the only artist whose Grammy love can approach the level they bestow on Adele is Bruno Mars. I was curious to see whether his partnership with Anderson.Paak would introduce any angle that the Academy found less appealing, but the duo’s clean sweep of Song and Record of the Year this year for “Leave The Door Open”— upsetting the likes of Olivia Rodrigo, Billie Eilish and Li’l Nas X in the process —confirmed that momentum won’t be broken. I would be shocked to see Silk Sonic not amongst the nominees for Album of the Year.
Contenders
Dawn FM // The Weeknd
= // Ed Sheeran
Encanto // Various artists
The Forever Story // J.I.D.
Gemini Rights // Steve Lacy
Harry's House // Harry Styles
Honestly, Nevermind // Drake
In These Silent Days // Brandi Carlile
MOTOMAMI // Rosalía
Mr. Morale And The Big Steppers // Kendrick Lamar
Raise The Roof // Robert Plant & Alison Krauss
Red (Taylor's Version) // Taylor Swift
RENAISSANCE // Beyoncé
Special // Lizzo
Traumazine // Megan Thee Stallion
Twelve Carat Toothache // Post Malone
Un Verano Sin Ti // Bad Bunny
Voyage // ABBA
Longshots
777 // Latto
American Heartbreak // Zach Bryan
Ants From Up There // Black Country, New Road
Come Home, The Kids Miss You // Jack Harlow
Dance Fever // Florence + The Machine
Entering Heaven Alive // Jack White
Familia // Camila Cabello
The Lockdown Sessions // Elton John
Palomino // Miranda Lambert
Still Over It // Summer Walker
Prediction Time
Before I get into my predictions, it's important to point out a few factors that will affect how the nominees will look. The most important one is that this is now the fifth year the Grammys will have extended the field from the usual 5. This (presumably) allows them to include and accomodate a wider variety of genres, though that was also the thought behind the Oscars expanding their Best Picture field, and that change has mostly seen a higher number of the same kind of nominees. Last year, unbeknownst to just about everyone, they actually expanded the field to 10 from the previous number, 8, a decision apparently made on the eve of the nominations announcement.
To be fair to the Grammys, an award show that I've lambasted year after year, the results from the first year of the extended field were a remarkable success, and some of the the ceremonies in recent years (2020 and 2021 most notably) were triumphs as well. However, with multiple instances in the last couple years of unoriginal repeat winners (Billie Eilish, Silk Sonic) as well as some completely baffling victories and snubs serves as a reminder that as often the Grammys have the capability to surprise, they also have the capacity to underwhelm.
I really don't know what direction to go in this year. My "automatic bid per genre" theory has sort of panned out, with Rap, Hip/Hop, Country, Pop, R&B, Rock, and even Indie Folk all represented in the Album of the Year field the last two years. However, many of the individual nominees-- particularly in 2021, but in this year as well --I would not have seen coming, and a couple I very much expected to see were not among them. The fact that last year's winner, Jon Batiste, was one of the biggest upsets in Grammy history makes the race this year all the more intriguing. It seems more consistent with the Academy to revert to the norm and go back to the familiar names, but has an organization that's been public about their desire to evolve finally decided they're done being monotonous and predictable?
At least in terms of the nominees (not necessarily the ultimate winners), I'm going to go with the 'hot hand' theory. Just like basketball players will keep feeding the ball to a teammate who is shooting lights out on the night until he or she actually starts to miss shots, I'm going to keep predicting Adele and Bruno Mars get all the Grammy love until I actually see otherwise. Similarly, although Brandi Carlile, Beyoncé and Kendrick Lamar will almost certainly get snubbed at the altar again, will all get nominated for their 3rd consecutive albums. So that's half my Album of the Year field right there.
Beyond that quintet, though where it gets a little more unpredictable, and I have to venture more into 'guess' territory, just based on recent trends. First of all, I don't know if you can even call this a "trend" when it seems to just be an annual fact: the biggest pop smash will almost certainly be recognized, and though this year lacked a pop album that proved to be a total zeitgeist the level of Olivia Rodrigo, Dua Lipa, and Billie Eilish the last few years, that leaves Harry Styles, whose Harry's House was both his biggest and best-reviewed release to date. And though she didn't make nearly as a big an impact as Harry did, Lizzo, who earned 8 nominations in 2020 off the success of her debut album, also returned to much adoration and acclaim, and I have a hard time seeing her left out this time around as well.
Another recent trend is 'respect for your elders,' which we saw in the form of a nod to Tony Bennett last year. In that vein, I have a feeling we'll see the duo of Alison Krauss and Robert Plant back on the Grammy stage again with a chance to repeat their 2009 Album of the Year triumph. And for the last two spots, I expect a couple other trends to be fulfilled: one, the surprise nomination from a Best New Artist contender (a la Li'l Nas X in 2020 or Black Pumas in 2021), and two, the sleeper R&B release (a la Jon Batiste last year, or H.E.R. literally every single year). As listed above, there a number of albums from each silo that could meet the criteria, but when in doubt, I'll go with the biggest successes from this year, which would have to be Latto and Steve Lacy.
So, my final prediction, in alphabetical order, is:
30 // Adele
777 // Latto
An Evening With Silk Sonic // Silk Sonic
Gemini Rights // Steve Lacy
Harry's House // Harry Styles
In These Silent Days // Brandi Carlile
Mr. Morale And The Big Steppers // Kendrick Lamar
Raise The Roof // Alison Krauss & Robert Plant
RENAISSANCE // Beyoncé
Special // Lizzo
The following were the five just missed my cut, and if nominated, should be considered in the tier of "Gahhhh, I knew I should have predicted that!!":
Twelve Carat Toothache // Post Malone
Traumazine // Megan Thee Stallion
Un Verano Sin Ti // Bad Bunny
Red (Taylor's Version) // Taylor Swift
Voyage // ABBA
Comments