5 Bold Premier League Preseason Predictions, Revisited

Way back in August, with the dawn of a new Premier League season within us, I offered 5 bold (and I do mean BOLD) takes for how the 2021-22 season would transpire. Time has positively flown, and here we are with yet another incredible season in the rearview mirror. As we tie a bow on 9 months of thrilling football-- culminating in a Decision Day two weeks ago that saw Leeds escape relegation at the death, Son Heung-Min charge up to snatch the outright Golden Boot, only to have Mohamed Salah snatch it right back, and Aston Villa seemingly burying Manchester City's title chances only for City to score three goals in five minutes to claim their trophy --I thought it might be fitting to look back at how those projections held up. I was eager to wash out the taste of finishing 78/150 on the season for my weekly predictions. That's good enough for just over 60%, which is not an ideal number if you're trying to convince people you know what you're talking about.

Anyways, before we delve into how horribly off-base I was, let me remind you that the title of the original piece foreshadowed the high probability that I look foolish come May. With that in mind, these are 5 things I predicted would transpire, in order of what I expected the least to most foolhardy prophesies would be:

1. All three newly promoted teams will avoid relegation.

The result: Wrong. 2 out of the 3 were immediately relegated back down.

Yeesh. This was seemingly my 'safest' bet, and it ended up being the most wrong I was of any of them. I fell for Norwich City's charm yet again; though I thought I could take them back and this time would be different, they once again failed to make the jump to Premier League, and find themselves ping-ponging back down to the Championship. Watford also disappointed this time around; though I thought their 2020 relegation was a bit flukish, and they would quickly re-assert themselves as a mid-table team at the top level. Instead, they struggled to find an identity and never really poked their head above the relegation zone. I got 1 right, though! Brentford, the team to come up via the playoff route last summer, was the one that acclimated quite nicely to the Premier League last season, and they will be a welcome sight in the next season.

2. Manchester City will not win the League.

The result: Wrong, barely.

Ooooooof. I spent most of the season thinking this prediction would be incorrect, and yet, found myself devastated on the last day to have gotten it incorrect. Despite promising offseasons from the likes of Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United, and Tottenham managing to both keep Harry Kane and Heung-Min Son as well as find the new manager they wanted, it became pretty clear about the midway point of the season that this would be Manchester City's title yet again. By January, 2nd-place Liverpool sat 14 points behind City, and no other team was even in the conversation any more. Then, a wild Liverpool winning streak coincided with a few untimely rare instances of the Mancs dropping points, and before you could say "quadruple," we were entering the final month of the season with the Reds just 1 point behind City. When Liverpool failed to beat them head-to-head at the Etihad, and a few weeks later had to settle for a draw at home against Tottenham, the race again looked to be over. But the Reds were able to win out, while the Cityzens seemed determined to make the finish interesting, drawing West Ham in their penultimate match, and spotting Aston Villa a 2-0 lead in the season finale. While Liverpool desperately tried to find a winning goal against Wolves, though, 35 miles down the road, City would perform the Houdini Act to end all others, scoring 3 goals in rapid succession to beat Villa and edge Liverpool for the trophy by one point for the 2nd time in the last 4 seasons.

3. One of the 'Big Six' managers will not make it to the end of the season.

The result: Nailed it! In fact, two of them didn't even make it to Christmas.

This one was already in the bag by the time I checked in halfway through the season. Tottenham split ways with their summer signing Nuno Espirito Santo just a few months into the season, while one too many embarrassing losses to rivals forced Manchester United to show club legend Ole Gunnar Solskjaer the door. The two dismissals had two very different effects: while Antonio Conte was able to guide Tottenham back on course and finishing in the Top 4, interim manager Ralf Ragnick did not have any less of a horrid time in charge at United.

4. Sadio Mané will win the Golden Boot.

The result: Wrong.

I'm going to give myself partial credit on this prediction, inasmuch as one can do that on a piece like this. At the heart of this prediction was the belief that Mané would bounce back from what was a mostly dreadful 2020-21 season, both for him and for Liverpool. And, after a bit of a slow start last Fall, he more than did that this year. In fact, there's a not-insane argument to be made for him being the league's best player in the last few months of the season; buoyed by leading his nation Senegal to the African Cup of Nations title as well as to the World Cup (both times at the expense of Mohamed Salah and Egypt), he was a man reborn in the central forward role under Jürgen Klopp, belting in countless crucial goals for Liverpool down the stretch, and being a general menace in his team's attack. Still, I can dress it up as much as I want, but my prediction was that he would finish as the league's top scorer. He was not far off in 5th place (with 16 goals), but fell 7 goals short of matching his teammate Salah and Tottenham's Son.

5. One of last year's Top 4 will not make the Top 4.

The result: Nailed it!

I saved my best prediction for last, as it turns out. Ironically, the predictions I thought were increasingly more crazy ended up basically mirroring my accuracy. Even though it's basically taking "the field," I had thought this was the most bold forecast of all, given how much stronger last year's Top 4 appeared to be than all other comers, at least on paper. As it turns out, 3 of them were. Manchester City and Liverpool proved themselves to be two of the best not only in the league, but in the entire world, and while Chelsea ended up not being quite on the level of those two, they never really were in danger of falling out of the Top 4. It was Manchester United that were the paper tigers, when all the dust settled. By October, when Liverpool was humiliating them 5-0 in Old Trafford, it became pretty clear this was not a high-quality team, and that remained true the rest of the season, as West Ham, then Arsenal, then ultimately Tottenham all out-jockeyed them in the race for the last remaining Champions League spot.

In the end, I nailed only 2 of my 5 predictions. Between the near-misses on my Manchester City and Sadio Mané projections, though, I'd say I really came in at about 60% correct on my bold outlook for the season. That's not relegation zone bad, but it's not a great number either. Oh well. In the words of all my fellow Liverpool fans, here's to next year!