5 Premier League Preseason Predictions, Revisited at Midseason

Way back in August, with the dawn of a new Premier League season upon us, I offered 5 bold takes for how the 2021-22 season would transpire. Well, believe it or not, we have now crossed the midway point of the season, to varying degrees (what with COVID cases once again throwing chaos into match schedules), and as that threshold has been satisfied, and during this weekend break from the Premier League while FA Cup matches are played, I figured it would be a nice time to pop in and see just how well and how poorly these predictions are aging:

1. All three newly promoted teams will avoid relegation.

My August logic:

"Really, it just boils down to the quality of these particular teams. Premier League debutantes Brentford, much like Sheffield United in the 2019-20 season, come in as the team with the least acclaim, but arguably the most cohesive identity. I think they may even end up a top-half-of-the-table side. Watford has undergone a complete rebranding in the last year under new management, and the more defensively rigid look could serve the Hornets well against more talented opposition. And Norwich City might be an infamous ping-pong team, bouncing between the top two leagues seemingly every year, but I have confidence that the Canaries will not only have learned from their miserable Premier League season two years ago, but be inspired by Leeds' success last year and use them as an example of how an overmatched side can in fact succeed in the Premier League playing exciting, counterattacking football."

How it's looking: Not great.

Early on, my optimism in Brentford and Watford, at least, seemed warranted. The Bees got off to a scintillating start, stunning Arsenal in their Premier League opener, and proceeding to get 14 points from their first seven matches, including a shock draw against Liverpool in what might be the match of the half-season. Watford opened with a comeback upset win over Aston Villa, and though they were wildly up and down, was doing a good job of keeping clear of the relegation zone. Over the last couple months, though, it's all gone south, as Brentford have won just 3 of their last 13, and Watford just 2 in that same timeframe. It sees them sitting both out of the relegation zone still, yes, but at a precarious 13th and 17th place, respectively. And the less said about last-place Norwich City the better. Don't let me ever be fooled again- no matter how much the Canaries may dominate the Championship, their season in the Premier League will only bring disappointment.

2. Manchester City will not win the League.

My August logic:

"This may be the easiest year to pick "the field" over City in Pep Guardiola's tenure; certainly since the 2017-18 season at least. We're less than two years removed from City (along with the rest of the league) being absolutely blitzed by Liverpool, and barring another insane slew of injuries, the Reds enter this season with practically all the key pieces from that 2019-20 team, plus Diogo Jota and Thiago. Crosstown rivals Manchester United spent much of last season on par with City, and in this transfer window have added young dynamo Jadon Sancho along with veteran CB Raphael Varane, adding depth at two crucial positions. And after the hiring of Thomas Tuchel, Chelsea spent the months of February-May being arguably the best team in the World, thrice getting the best of Man City, including in the Champions League Final, as heavy underdogs. Since then, the Blues addressed their one clear vulnerability-- lack of a consistent goalscoring threat up top-- by signing the lethal Romelu Lukaku. So, City make sense as the betting favorites, but I don't think it's crazy at all to think that one of the other expected Top 4 teams can knock them off their perch."

How it's looking: Ruh roh.

If this piece had been written just a few weeks ago, I'd still feel optimistic about getting this prediction right. That's how quickly the race has gotten out of hand. Manchester City has held the league lead for a little over a month now, but up until recently, Liverpool and Chelsea were breathing down their necks, and in fact both those clubs took turns atop the table before the Citizens even reached the top. But things have quite rapidly begun to mirror last season; it was late December 2020/early January 2021 when Manchester City embarked on a long winning streak, which coincided with a shocking slump from once-leaders Liverpool and inconsistent results from fellow challenger Manchester United to allow them to jump into and ultimately run away with the lead. Fast forward to late December 2021, and we see City in the midst of an 11-match win streak, Chelsea with just 14 points from their last 9 matches, and now Liverpool on a 3-match winless slump. All of a sudden, City are clear 10 points at the top, and if we learned anything from last season, it doesn't look like that lead will vanish any time soon.

3. One of the 'Big Six' managers will not make it to the end of the season.

My August logic:

"The last five seasons have seen at least one of the Big Six clubs part ways with their manager either in the middle of or immediately after the season. And with so many heavy-hitters jostling for pole position, there's bound to be a couple sides whose fanbases feel at least a little disappointed. So yes, I will be shocked if Guardiola or Klopp go anywhere, and would be surprised about Solskjaer being shown the door, too. But I'm not willing to count out Chelsea sacking Tuchel; Roman Abramovich has been absolutely ruthless with managers at the London club, and even though their turnaround under Tuchel was stark and obvious, they are expected to be title winners, and if the Premier League race goes south, he could legitimately be in trouble. I actually think Nuno Espirito Santo will fit Tottenham well, especially if they convince Harry Kane to stick around, but if he doesn't, Tottenham have shown an equal ruthlessness the last two seasons with midseason dismissals of Mauricio Pochettino and Jose Mourinho. Finally, despite Stan Kroenke's stubbornness to give Arsenal managers the boot-- and despite the goodwill Mikel Arteta has built up as a former player --how long can Arsenal afford to withstand subpar results?"

How it's looking: Nailed it!

Albeit not exactly in the way I would have guessed. With Arsenal's dreadful start, Arteta seemed the easiest candidate to see this one come true, but, perhaps in part because he was fighting for his professional life, his side have seen a remarkable turnaround and he still prowls the touchline at Emirates Stadium. Instead it was poor Ole Gunnar Solskjaer who got the boot, the Manchester United manager finally being forced out of the club at which his playing career was legendary thanks to the dismal nature of their losses to rivals Liverpool and Manchester City; both at home, by an aggregate scoreline of 7-0. Soon after, it was Nuno Espirito Santo joining him in the 'Big Six ex-manager' wilderness as Tottenham cut ties with their summer fling, albeit for a much different reason; his Spurs side weren't bad, per se, just underwhelming, and for the Tottenham board, there was a much prettier girl at the dance. Namely, Antonio Conte.

4. Sadio Mané will win the Golden Boot.

My August logic:

"My belief in Sadio Mané is the same as my belief in Liverpool's prospects this year. Too much was made about a poor performance in an abnormal season, one that saw many players and teams surprisingly misfiring, and now too many are writing them off. Just like Liverpool as a whole, Mané is barely a calendar year removed from the finest season of his career, and now with defenders more likely to key more heavily on Salah, and possibly even Diogo Jota, who exploded onto the scene last year, things will open up for the forward. As for the non-Liverpool usual suspects, I think Fernandes won't have to shoulder the goalscoring load for his team any more, nor will Lukaku, and Harry Kane will either be unhappily toiling about at Tottenham still, or at City, where he will be just one of about 34 valid goalscoring options."

How it's looking: Not impossible, but not likely.

Part of my analysis here was correct: not only have Bruno Fernandes, Harry Kane, and Romelu Lukaku all been massive disappointments this year-- at least in front of goal --, Mané has looked significantly better than last season. His energy and drive is back, and he actually sits in a tie for 4th place in the Golden Boot race, with 8 on the season. That said, he's still clearly not back to his pre-2020 best, his touch letting him down frequently and his finishing, while better than last year, is not as consistently reliable as it was in Liverpool's title-winning season. More significantly, though, he faces absurd competition in the Golden Boot race from his own team. Diogo Jota, who was originally brought into Liverpool as an ideal stopgap, super-sub type, is in fact second in the league with 10 goals on the season, and uh, you may have heard of a player named Mohamed Salah? The Egyptian and Liverpool legend has a blistering 16 goals on the year, putting him on pace to not only win the scoring title but break his own goalscoring record in 2017-18. So, there's time for Mané still, yes, and perhaps his current stint in the African Cup of Nations will see him return to Liverpool on a mission. But given the gap between him and his club counterparts, let alone the likes of Michail Antonio and Jamie Vardy, it's difficult to see him snagging this award.

5. One of last year's Top 4 will not make the Top 4.

My August logic:

"I have no good reason to predict this, hence why it's my 'boldest' (read: stupidest) prediction. It's just a gut feeling. Even though these particular clubs have finished in the Top 4 the last two seasons, it's always been in doubt right up to the final day, thanks to pests like Leicester, Tottenham, and even Wolverhampton and West Ham. It just feels like there's so much premature-- albeit understandable --ordination of the Top 4 that we're going to see the pressure get to at least one of the sides. Smart money would be on that side being Liverpool (lack of added depth to an aging squad in this transfer window) or Manchester United (still no real consistent identity under their manager), though I wouldn't consider anyone safe from an absolute letdown year. As for who will play spoiler? I think it will be one of two outcomes: Leicester finally take that final step through the door they've been knocking on the last few years, or Tottenham-- with Kane in the fold --thrive under Santo's identity and overachieve. "

How it's looking: Actually very feasible!

Ironically, the one I deemed the most risky prediction is one that appears to have a good chance at coming true! City is a Top 4 given at this point, sure, and though Chelsea and Liverpool may have fallen off the boil in the title race, neither one of them are in any trouble of missing the Top 4, at least not yet. No, it's Manchester United who, of the four perceived title contenders, have completely muffed the assignment this year. I hinted at it earlier when discussing Solskjaer's dismissal, but the truth is, he wasn't sacked just for losing to Liverpool and Manchester City. Rather, those were the cherries on top of what has been a wildly disappointing season for the Red Devils thus far. A club that began the season with title aspirations will instead begin the calendar year in 7th place. Now, they have plenty of time to right the ship under interim manager Ralf Rangnick, or whoever will be managing United the rest of the way: they're actually just 4 points out of 4th place as it stands, and there's plenty of football to be played. But with West Ham, Wolves and Brighton seeming every bit as up for a big game as they are these days, and Arsenal and Tottenham currently looking straight up good, it's not at all difficult to imagine a scenario where at the very least Manchester United is left out of the Top 4 at season's end.