5 Premier League Predictions That Will Likely Look Foolish In May

As we reach Kickoff Day for the most elite domestic league of the World's most popular sport, predictions and odds are abound for how exactly this Premier League season will transpire. In lieu of a "storyline overview," I thought it'd be more fun to instead offer up 5 predictions for 2020-21.

The title essentially explains the thinking behind this piece. These are 5 things I'm going to predict will happen, knowing full well that come the end of the season, we will likely look back on these and laugh at my folly. In order of least to most foolhardy prophesy:

1. All three newly promoted teams will avoid relegation.

Why it's silly: When trying to predict which teams will be relegated, the easy assumption is that the clubs who just arrived from the lower Championship league will head right back through the door they came in. Nearly every season, at least one of the newbies does indeed get relegated right away, and in several recent seasons, at least two of them have been ushered out of the league after a short stay. It's easy to see why this particular crop of promotees wouldn't inspire confidence, too; Norwich City and Watford were dropped from the league just over one calendar year ago, and both have arguably less firepower than in the 2019-20 season, and Brentford haven't played top-flight football in 76 years.

Why I'm predicting it anyways: Really, it just boils down to the quality of these particular teams. Premier League debutantes Brentford, much like Sheffield United in the 2019-20 season, come in as the team with the least acclaim, but arguably the most cohesive identity. I think they may even end up a top-half-of-the-table side. Watford has undergone a complete rebranding in the last year under new management, and the more defensively rigid look could serve the Hornets well against more talented opposition. And Norwich City might be an infamous ping-pong team, bouncing between the top two leagues seemingly every year, but I have confidence that the Canaries will not only have learned from their miserable Premier League season two years ago, but be inspired by Leeds' success last year and use them as an example of how an overmatched side can in fact succeed in the Premier League playing exciting, counterattacking football.

2. Manchester City will not win the League.

Why it's silly: I know taking "the field" over a single club may not seem like a bold choice-- and to be fair, that's why it's only #2 on this list! But Manchester City in the Premier League the last 4 years have finished: 1st, 2nd, 1st, 1st. And two of those title races weren't even remotely competitive after January. There's a reason: with wallets that have no end, the Citizens are absolutely loaded at every position. It's not a stretch to say that their second XI could beat most Premier League sides at full strength. And in this transfer window, they've only gone and added to their arsenal with English wunderkind Jack Grealish, and are rumored to be close to signing Harry Kane, which would replace an aged-out legend Sergio Agüero with one of the best, if not THE best, strikers in the league. Woof.

Why I'm predicting it anyways: All that being said, this may be the easiest year to pick "the field" over City in Pep Guardiola's tenure; certainly since the 2017-18 season at least. We're less than two years removed from City (along with the rest of the league) being absolutely blitzed by Liverpool, and barring another insane slew of injuries, the Reds enter this season with practically all the key pieces from that 2019-20 team, plus Diogo Jota and Thiago. Crosstown rivals Manchester United spent much of last season on par with City, and in this transfer window have added young dynamo Jadon Sancho along with veteran CB Raphael Varane, adding depth at two crucial positions. And after the hiring of Thomas Tuchel, Chelsea spent the months of February-May being arguably the best team in the World, thrice getting the best of Man City, including in the Champions League Final, as heavy underdogs. Since then, the Blues addressed their one clear vulnerability-- lack of a consistent goalscoring threat up top-- by signing the lethal Romelu Lukaku. So, City make sense as the betting favorites, but I don't think it's crazy at all to think that one of the other expected Top 4 teams can knock them off their perch.

3. One of the 'Big Six' managers will not make it to the end of the season.

Why it's silly: Logistically, this doesn't make a ton of sense. Results pending, I suppose, but there's no way in hell Guardiola or Jürgen Klopp will get the boot from City or Liverpool, and you would imagine Thomas Tuchel has bought himself considerable time at Chelsea with their Champions League triumph. Manchester United just extended Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's contract, and Tottenham Hotspur has a brand new manager after an exhausting, months-long search. That leaves Arsenal, whose owners are notoriously reticent to kick managers to the curb, let alone the fact that their manager is a former club legend.

Why I'm predicting it anyways: The law of averages, really. The last five seasons have seen at least one of the Big Six clubs part ways with their manager either in the middle of or immediately after the season. And with so many heavy-hitters jostling for pole position, there's bound to be a couple sides whose fanbases feel at least a little disappointed. So yes, I will be shocked if Guardiola or Klopp go anywhere, and would be surprised about Solskjaer being shown the door, too. But I'm not willing to count out Chelsea sacking Tuchel; Roman Abramovich has been absolutely ruthless with managers at the London club, and even though their turnaround under Tuchel was stark and obvious, they are expected to be title winners, and if the Premier League race goes south, he could legitimately be in trouble. I actually think Nuno Espirito Santo will fit Tottenham well, especially if they convince Harry Kane to stick around, but if he doesn't, Tottenham have shown an equal ruthlessness the last two seasons with midseason dismissals of Mauricio Pochettino and Jose Mourinho. Finally, despite Stan Kroenke's stubbornness to give Arsenal managers the boot-- and despite the goodwill Mikel Arteta has built up as a former player --how long can Arsenal afford to withstand subpar results?

4. Sadio Mané will win the Golden Boot.

Why it's silly: There's no question the Senegalese forward has had a phenomenal career in the Liverpool shirt, but in his 7 years in the Premier League (including his Southampton days), he's won this award only once, when he split it in 2019 with teammate Mohamed Salah and Arsenal's Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang. If there's going to be a Liverpool player who wins it, odds are it will be Salah, who has notched 20+ goals in each of his 4 seasons with the club. Furthermore, you wouldn't be faulted for assuming it won't go to a Liverpool player at all, with the likes of 3-time winner Harry Kane, Jamie Vardy, Bruno Fernandes, Romelu Lukaku and Son-Heung Min out there. Oh yeah, and Mané is coming off a season that he himself described the "worst of my career," so, there's that.

Why I'm predicting it anyways: My belief in Sadio Mané is the same as my belief in Liverpool's prospects this year. Too much was made about a poor performance in an abnormal season, one that saw many players and teams surprisingly misfiring, and now too many are writing them off. Just like Liverpool as a whole, Mané is barely a calendar year removed from the finest season of his career, and now with defenders more likely to key more heavily on Salah, and possibly even Diogo Jota, who exploded onto the scene last year, things will open up for the forward. As for the non-Liverpool usual suspects, I think Fernandes won't have to shoulder the goalscoring load for his team any more, nor will Lukaku, and Harry Kane will either be unhappily toiling about at Tottenham still, or at City, where he will be just one of about 34 valid goalscoring options.

5. One of last year's Top 4 will not make the Top 4.

Why it's silly: From the view at the start of this season, this might be the clearest dropoff from 4th to 5th since the 2000s, the heyday of the "Big 4," which included Arsenal and not yet Manchester City. As discussed above, the moves City, Chelsea and United have made in the offseason, and the return of virtually every key Liverpool player from the injury list, make all four of them legitimate title contenders. Barring one of them suffering through the same incredibly long laundry list of injuries that Liverpool had last season, it's hard to see who could possibly finish in the Top 4 other than those clubs. Everton and Tottenham, for example, have sneaky amounts of talent, but are undergoing managerial changes, and potentially, massive personnel changes. Arsenal have some vital pieces but can never seem to get out of their own way. Leicester City have come achingly close the last two seasons, only to fumble away a brilliant season in the final month; what's going to change that this season, with the talent gap likely being even larger than it has been before?

Why I'm predicting it anyways: I have no good reason to predict this, hence why it's my 'boldest' (read: stupidest) prediction. It's just a gut feeling. Even though these particular clubs have finished in the Top 4 the last two seasons, it's always been in doubt right up to the final day, thanks to pests like Leicester, Tottenham, and even Wolverhampton and West Ham. It just feels like there's so much premature-- albeit understandable --ordination of the Top 4 that we're going to see the pressure get to at least one of the sides. Smart money would be on that side being Liverpool (lack of added depth to an aging squad in this transfer window) or Manchester United (still no real consistent identity under their manager), though I wouldn't consider anyone safe from an absolute letdown year. As for who will play spoiler? I think it will be one of two outcomes: Leicester finally take that final step through the door they've been knocking on the last few years, or Tottenham-- with Kane in the fold --thrive under Santo's identity and overachieve.