Premier League Predictions, Week 38

Welcome back to your latest and last weekly predictions, Premier League fans! I find it hard to believe, but just like Kate and Aidy's tenure and SNL and my facade of not being in love with Harry Styles, this Premier League season is coming to an end.

It's been an absolute belter of a season, and I'm sad to see it come to an end, but also thrilled to see what the end holds for us. Though the results of last week provided some clarity in the title race, Top 4 race, and relegation race, all three races remain alive for a showdown between two teams on Sunday. Ironically, of the three, it was probably the title race whose picture is most obscured after last week, thanks to Manchester City's shock draw at West Ham, which represented one of three predictions I got incorrect last week, the others being Arsenal's damning collapse at Newcastle and Leeds' crucial draw vs. Brighton. Tottenham and Liverpool's victories helped me salvage a 2/5 week, but that still only gets me to 75/145 on the year, which means I cannot afford to go 0-fer this week if I intend to meet my goal of bettering .500 on the year.

But! The final matches are just 12 hours away from kicking back off, so let's not waste any more time crunching numbers. Here are your 5 for Week 38!

Tottenham Hotspur vs. Burnley

Thanks to the double whammy of their gritty win over Burnley and Arsenal’s capitulation to Newcastle, against all odds, Tottenham controls their own Champions League destiny. Win and they’re in. And further simplifying things is the fact that they come up against already-relegated Norwich side, at home. Should they slip up, rivals Arsenal could jump them with a win, but let's be honest...they're not blowing this opportunity. Not a chance. (And for the record, I'm not bothering with an Arsenal prediction since a Tottenham victory nullifies the importance of it, but I think Everton take points off Arsenal regardless.)

The Pick: Tottenham, 5-1

Brentford vs. Leeds United

Leeds will have been heartbroken to see Burnley secure a point at Aston Villa on Thursday, because it means they're back to needing to better Burnley's result. And objectively, they'll have the much tougher matchup this weekend. Brentford had a serious dip in the middle of the season, but are ending it with the same high-flying form they began it with, and Thomas Frank and co. will care little about Leeds' relegation concerns, and much more about rewarding their home fans with one last exciting victory. I think the end is here for Leeds, unfortunately.

The Pick: Brentford, 4-2

Burnley vs. Newcastle United

If Leeds are in fact to lose to Brentford, then it will not matter what happens in this match unless Burnely plan on losing by 21 goals to Newcastle. But I bet caretake manager Mike Jackson, who has done a terrific job in potentially reviving Burnley's Premier League hopes, will want the Clarets to settle it on their own terms. Newcastle are the better side, to be sure, but they also have very little to play for after winning their home finale (and breaking Arsenal hearts in the process) on Monday. I think Burnley edge them in this one, and secure safety one and for all.

The Pick: Burnley, 1-0

Liverpool vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers

The conclusion to this season has mirrored the 2018-19 finish in so many ways, and just like it did three years ago, Liverpool's season will end with a home match against Wolves that they will try to win while keeping an eye on Manchester City's match down the road and hoping the league leaders miraculously drop points. Jürgen Klopp and the various Reds have done a good job all week, both before and after their gritty road win at Southampton on Tuesday, mitigating the focus on the title race, and making clear they are only focused on this next match. Though this is often coach-speak, I genuinely believe them; they have to know that the chances of City not winning are so minimal, so I imagine their only focus is ensuring they give their home fans one more victory to celebrate. Both that 2019 match and last year's consequential finale vs. Crystal Palace (in which 3 points were needed to confirm a Top 4 finish) played out similarly, with Liverpool on the front foot throughout but needing a couple Sadio Mané goals to really break through and win 2-0. Expect something similar tomorrow.

The Pick: Liverpool, 2-0

Manchester City vs. Aston Villa

If Liverpool are in fact able to get three points at Anfield-- which is not a given, considering how tough Wolves can be --the onus then falls on Pep Guardiola and Manchester City to take care of business at home against Aston Villa and secure the title. Much has been made, both in media coverage and in breathless Scouser fantasies, about the fact that the team standing between City and another Premier League triumph is managed by Liverpool legend Steven Gerrard and features former Liverpool players Danny Ings and Philippe Coutinho as its star attackers. But although the script would seemingly write itself, the reality is that Villa just really aren't very good. Their attack certainly is plucky enough for them to trouble City's makeshift back line, and I won't be surprised if they get a goal or two. But I will be very, very, surprised if they don't concede a number of goals to the Manchester attack, and as we've seen in extreme detail these last couple months, when City score first, any ounce of will and determination from their overmatched opponents seems to quickly wither away.

The Pick: Manchester City, 4-1