2025 Grammy Predictions
Tonight, "music's biggest night" returns in the form of the 67th Grammys ceremony! This ceremony will mostly reflect the best of 2024, an abnormally strong year in music, but technically reflects the music from the 'eligibility period' of mid-September 2023 through August of last year.
This year, the awards show will bring back Trevor Noah as host for the fifth straight year, and will also be in the Lakers' Staples Center (I refuse to call it by its new name, as it usually is. Yes, even despite the tragic fires that recently ravaged Southern California, the city of angels will play triumphant host to the ceremony yet again. After two straight years of pandemic-affected shows-- the 2021 ceremony took place delayed, with no fans, mostly outside the Los Angeles Convention Center, and the 2022 ceremony also delayed and moved to Las Vegas to skirt California's COVID precautions --- we finally returned to normalcy the last couple years. And by normalcy, I of course mean a ceremony in a packed arena in Los Angeles, with Beyoncé and Kendrick Lamar inexplicably shut out of any major awards, and Taylor Swift inexplicably winning the major awards. Good to be back!!
Though these particular awards have often been besotted by criticisms of valuing commercial success over critically acclaimed music, (criticisms I find wholly valid, for what it’s worth), the show remains the premier music awards out there. And, though they often evade glory, many wonderful and deserving artists and bands are typically nominees, and that is no different this year.
If you’re curious about the nominees for all the awards, not just the 15 I'm highlighting in this article, you can find them listed nicely here. But this is devoted to my best guess as to what will win. I’m not guaranteeing a high success rate because, let’s be honest, who knows what will win? Sometimes they give all the major awards to the big stars, like Bruno Mars and Billie Eilish. Sometimes they distribute the wealth all over, like in the last four awards shows. Other times, the big winners are total wildcards like Jon Batiste or Beck. In short: I have some idea, but really no idea, who and what will win. All I can do is try! Here goes:
GENRE
Best Music Video
"360" - Charli XCX (Aidan Zamiri, director)
"Fortnight" - Taylor Swift feat. Post Malone (Taylor Swift, director)
“Houdini” - Eminem (Rich Lee, director)
“Not Like Us" - Kendrick Lamar (Dave Free and Kendrick Lamar, co-directors)
“Tailor Swif” - A$AP Rocky (Vania Heymann and Gal Muggia, co-directors)
Will Win: "Not Like Us"
Could Win: “Fortnight"
Should Win: “360"
Anything BUT: “Houdini”
Snubbed: "Oak Island" - Zach Bryan (Matthew Dillon Cohen, director)
First of all, I just have to say I love that both Taylor Swift and "Tailor Swif" are nominated for the same award. I think if one of Taylor or A$AP Rocky win, they should split the Grammy with the other in case Academy voters were confused about which they were voting for. There couldn't be a bigger difference between the actual videos, though; Swift's and Eminem's music videos are eye-rollingly self-referential, while Rocky's absolutely unhinged video is more in the same artistic stratosphere of the works from Kendrick Lamar and Charli XCX. Kendrick and frequent collaborator Dave Free have won a couple Music Video Grammies already, and are favorites to take it home once more. You couldn't argue it's not deserved, even while I might slightly prefer the hilarious and chaotically artistic "360" video from Charli and co. "Not Like Us" might be the first diss track ever with a music video, but said video is both a profound flex on Drake and his production company, and a masterful showcase of L.A. pride. You can never count out the "artist as director" angle, though, which makes Taylor Swift a genuine threat to win this, which would be immensely disappointing, considering it really even shouldn't be nominated (especially over more impressive choreographed videos, or more heartwrenching mini-films like Zach Bryan's "Oak Island).
Best Alternative Album
All Born Screaming – St. Vincent
Charm – Clairo
The Collective – Kim Gordon
What Now – Brittany Howard
Wild God – Nick Cave and the Bad Seeds
Will Win: All Born Screaming
Could Win: What Now
Should Win: All Born Screaming
Anything BUT: What Now
Snubbed: Loss of Life - MGMT
Best Alternative Album, which tends to be one of the sneaky-good categories that doesn't make the televised broadcast, is back with a solid field yet again. Three of the nominees were honorable mentions in my recent Best Albums of 2024, and truthfully, the field could have (and should have) been filled out with two of my Top 10 entries. I actually think Vampire Weekend was the most egregious omission from this field, but I will rant about their snubs again later in this piece, so I want to also highlight the overlooked release from MGMT, which was an unexpectedly poignant and beautiful soft rock record. But enough about those that were not nominated- this is a fine selection of nominees! I did like Clairo's and Brittany Howard's latest, but neither as much as the masses seemed to nor as much as I have their past work, and especially since Brittany has already won in this category, I don't think What Now needs to win this one over strong competitors. St. Vincent also isn't exactly hurting for an award in this field; she's carved out a pretty dominant lane in the Alternative categories at the Grammys, which is why she's a favorite yet again. But of the 4 nominees I've listened to (sorry, Kim Gordon), All Born Screaming truly was far and away the best. It was a return to the guitarist/singer's frenetic, experimental best that we last saw from her in 2014's self-titled album.
Best Rap Performance
"Enough (Miami)" - Cardi B
"Houdini" - Eminem
"Like That" - Future & Metro Boomin feat. Kendrick Lamar
"NISSAN ALTIMA" - Doechii
"Not Like Us" - Kendrick Lamar
"When The Sun Shines Again" – Common & Pete Rock feat. Posdnuos
"Yeah Glo!" - GloRilla
Will Win: "Not Like Us"
Could Win: "NISSAN ALTIMA"
Should Win: "Like That"
Anything BUT: "Houdini"
Snubbed: "COBRA" - Megan Thee Stallion
Rap is in a somewhat weird spot with these Grammys; it's not that it was a weak year for the genre-- the opposite, in fact. Rather, it's that most of 2024's buzziest albums either came right at the beginning of the year, and thus seems to have been forgotten by the Recording Academy, or at the end, missing the eligibility cutoff for this ceremony. It's yielded some lopsided races in the Rap categories; save, perhaps, for this one. The 7 nominated tracks feature work by some of the biggest names in hip-hop, as well as a couple exciting breakout stars, and a few of the biggest hits of 2024. Other than Eminem's fine-but-forgettable return record, any one of these songs winning would be delightful for numerous reasons. Given that Kendrick Lamar's "Not Like Us" was also a surprising double nomination for Song and Record of the Year, you have to imagine it's a heavy favorite her. And fair enough-- this track was everywhere this summer in particular, and given my love for Kendrick and the hilarity I would find in a scathing Drake diss winning big at these award, I won't complain if it does win. But if I'm being honest, as a standalone song it's probably my 4th favorite of this bunch. I love the thumping bravado of "Yeah Glo!" and Doechii's spitfire delivery in "NISSAN ALTIMA," and low-key, my favorite song of the entire Kendrick-Drake beef might just be the one that set it all off: Future & Metro Boomin's fiery "Like That," featuring Kendrick's immortal, taunting guest verse. The kiss-off "Motherfuck the Big 3, n***, it's just big ME!" alone deserves a Grammy.
Despite only being nominated for one song at these Grammys, Kendrick Lamar still could be headed for a big night, as the favorite not only in the Music Video category, but a contender in a couple Rap awards and major awards as well
Best Rap Album
Alligator Bites Never Heal – Doechii
The Auditorium, Vol. 1 - Common & Pete Rock
The Death of Slim Shady (Coup de Grâce) – Eminem
Might Delete Later – J Cole
We Don't Trust You – Future & Metro Boomin
Will Win: Alligator Bites Never Heal
Could Win: We Don't Trust You
Should Win: Alligator Bites Never Heal
Anything BUT: The Death of Slim Shady (Coup de Grâce)
Snubbed: Dark Times - Vince Staples
The aforementioned 'weirdness' of the Rap categories at these Grammys manifest itself in this fairly underwhelming nominee field for Album of the Year. It's one that leaves out Kendrick Lamar, Tyler the Creator, and GloRilla due to the eligibility period cutoff, and leaves out Megan Thee Stallion, SchoolBoy Q, Denzel Curry and Vince Staples for inexplicable and confounding reasons. As a result, this is likely a two-horse race, and likely not the two horses you would expect. Eminem, Common, and J Cole are all legends of the game, of course, and thus you can't really count them out of the race. But each of their albums met fairly medium reactions from critics and the masses alike, whereas Future & Metro Boomin' set the charts alight with We Don't Trust You (and it didn't hurt that its lead single spawned the rap beef of the century). Yet, standing above all as the favorite is a mixtape from the sole female nominee and the new kid on the block Doechii. Given how quickly her star has risen in the latter half of this year, and her own nomination for Best New Artist, it's not a stretch to see how Alligator Bites Never Heal might just take it. It would be both delightful and deserved; it's an absolute force in musical variety and storytelling, and Doechii is already evident as a unique talent.
Best Country Song
"The Architect" - Kacey Musgraves
"A Bar Song (Tipsy)" - Shaboozey
"I Am Not Okay" - Jelly Roll
"I Had Some Help" - Post Malone feat. Morgan Wallen
"TEXAS HOLD 'EM" – Beyoncé
Will Win: "A Bar Song (Tipsy)"
Could Win: "I Had Some Help"
Should Win: "The Architect"
Anything BUT: "I Had Some Help"
Snubbed: "16 CARRIAGES" - Beyoncé
If the Rap and Alternative categories might have some conspicuous absences among their nominees, you can bet the opposite is true for Country. Country music's moment in 2024 was perhaps 2nd only to Pop music; it was one thing for some of its most respected flagbearers like Chris Stapleton and Kacey Musgraves to come out with new music. It was another thing for exciting, genre-blending new artists like Jelly Roll, Teddy Swims and Shaboozey to throw their cowboy hats in the ring and push Country more into the mainstram. It was an unprecedented thing altogether for some of the biggest popstars in the nation, like Post Malone, like Lana del Rey, like Quavo, and yes, like Beyoncé to break into the genre. Unsurprisingly, the latter phenomenon (and mostly Beyoncé's involvement) has sparked still-raging debates about the "authenticity" of the country music in question, and what the future looks like for the genre, but there's no debate about it at the Grammys, who have bestowed copious Country noms upon Bey, Post Malone, and some of the other big names in all of music. Just about every race in this genre will be one to watch at these Grammys, and this one in particular is tough for me, both in terms of what to predict and who to cheer for. The simplest thing is who I'm cheering against- if it turns out Grammy voters don't have a problem with a former popstar going Country, but they want that representative to be Post Malone (in tandem with the problematic Morgan Wallen), they will lose all respect from me, but given the cultural cache both mediocre white boys have, it's not out of the question. That said, I do think they will opt for one of the record-makers: either Bey's "TEXAS HOLD 'EM," which made her the first Black woman with a # 1 vountry song ass well as the first Country artist to go # 1 in numerous European nations, or newcomer Shaboozey's hit, which broke the record for consecutive weeks as the Billboard # 1. Far be it from me to ever cheer against Beyoncé, and I would also be delighted for Shaboozey to have his moment...but selfishly, I would love if there were a way for Kacey Musgraves to garner a little recognition at these awards, too. Her contemplative Deeper Well was such a lovely change of pace, and "The Architect" is a beautiful little tune that would be a deserving Grammy winner.
Best Country Album
COWBOY CARTER – Beyoncé
Deeper Well - Kacey Musgraves
F-1 Trillion – Post Malone
Higher – Chris Stapleton
Whirlwind – Lainey Wilson
Will Win: COWBOY CARTER
Could Win: Higher
Should Win: COWBOY CARTER
Anything BUT: F-1 Trillion
Snubbed: The Great American Bar Scene - Zach Bryan
I know I just suggested above that the Country categories don't have the "where is (x)?!?" dynamic that many of the other genres do at these Grammys, but that's not entirely true: Zach Bryan is one of country music's fastest-rising stars, and the complete lack of nominations for his earnest and celebrated Great American Bar Scene is baffling. That said, while he certainly deserved a nod, and with all respect to the artist...he wasn't gonna win here anyway. This is a Country field loaded with megawatt stars, with four former Album of the Year nominees (as in, Album of the Year. Not just Best Country Album.) among them. Many a Country purist may bristle at this statement, but that doesn't make it untrue: the biggest story in country music this year by far was Beyoncé's unexpected but breathlessly-anticipated foray into the genre, and the ensuing (and predictable) lack of acceptance of COWBOY CARTER by the bastions of mainstream Country. When Bey picked up a whole host of Country-specific nominations at these awards, that already set the Grammys apart from both the CMAs and ACM Awards, which shut her out entirely. The question is, will the Country voters go one step further and actually award her? Though I am perpetually bearish on voters for any award that's not a traditionally 'Black' genre actually supporting Beyoncé, I actually think they will. They weren't opposed to putting her forth for this award in the first place, after all, and I think the Grammys will treasure the rare opportunity to present themselves as more progressive and forward-thinking than other awards shows. If that doesn't come to fruition, though, it will be because they opted for someone from the old guard, the most likely option being Chris Stapleton.
It was a big year for Country, but all eyes on these genre awards will be to see whether Beyoncé actually wins at the Grammys after being snubbed by the Country industry awards shows
Best Dance Pop Recording
"Got Me Started" – Troye Sivan
"L'Amour de Ma Vie (Over Now Extended Edit)" – Billie Eilish
"Make You Mine" - Madison Beer
"Von dutch" – Charli XCX
"yes, and?" – Ariana Grande
Will Win: "Von dutch"
Could Win: "yes, and?"
Should Win: "L'Amour de Ma Vie (Over Now Extended Edit)"
Anything BUT: "yes, and?"
Snubbed: "Super Graphic Ultra Modern Girl" - Chappell Roan
I've referenced a couple times in this piece already, and have talked at length elsewhere about what an amazing year in Pop this was. Unsurprisingly, then, the Pop fields at these awards are absolutely loaded. Every single one of the awards in this category have at least 3 different nominees that could be expected to win, starting with this field. I'm not convinced Charli XCX is going to be able to break through in the major awards, so I expect the various "Dance" and "Electronic" fields might be where the Academy sees fit to recognize the phenomenon that brat was in 2024. That said, while Ariana Grande's album sort of just came and went, and the Grammys have historically not been huge Arianators for whatever reason, they could use this award as an excuse to cash in on the cultural moment the Wicked star and recently announced Oscar nominee is having, which would be a shame both because "yes, and?" is so forgettable compared to most other nominees, and because...
Best Pop Solo Performance
"Apple" - Charli XCX
"BIRDS OF A FEATHER" - Billie Eilish
"BODYGUARD" – Beyoncé
"Espresso" – Sabrina Carpenter
"Good Luck, Babe!" – Chappell Roan
Will Win: "BIRDS OF A FEATHER"
Could Win: "Espresso"
Should Win: "Espresso"
Anything BUT: "BODYGUARD"
Snubbed: "we can't be friends (wait for your love)" - Ariana Grande
...Grande had a MUCH better song that could have been nominated in this field instead. I found eternal sunshine a fine-but-forgettable album from the artist, but "we can't be friends" was one of my favorite pop songs of all in the last year. That said, admittedly, this category is already insanely stacked. There's not a single winner that would make me unhappy, which is why I've gone with the unprecedented route of saying (*whispers quietly* *hunches down out of view* *checks surroundings*) I actually think this is one Queen B has no business winning. "BODYGUARD" is a bop, and to be clear, I will still cheer like a madman for any award she wins. But it's a pretty surprising inclusion given that it wasn't actually officially released as a radio single off of COWBOY CARTER, and in this case is up against four of the best and biggest pop songs of the year, from the four pop artists that had the biggest 2024. "Apple" is a great (and sneakily poignant) tune, "BIRDS OF A FEATHER" is gorgeous, and "Good Luck, Babe!" is undoubtedly actually my favorite of the whole bunch, so I'd be thrilled for any of them to take it. But, while neither Sabrina nor "Espresso" is my subjective fave, it was definitely the biggest pop smash of the year, and it would feel wrong for it to not take home a single Grammy. Given that the only other nomination "Espresso" specifically picked up was in Record of the Year, and I certainly won't be cheering for it there, I would be perfectly fine with it winning here instead.
Best Pop Vocal Album
eternal sunshine – Ariana Grande
Hit Me Hard and Soft – Billie Eilish
The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess – Chappell Roan
Short n' Sweet – Sabrina Carpenter
The Tortured Poets Department – Taylor Swift
Will Win: Hit Me Hard and Soft
Could Win: Short n' Sweet
Should Win: The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess
Anything BUT: The Tortured Poets Department
Snubbed: Radical Optimism - Dua Lipa
Given the Grammys' tendency to favor commercial appeal above all else, the Pop Album category is almost always the Genre award that most closely mirrors the Album of the year shortlist, and guess what? 2025 is no different in that regard. 80% of the field here are also nominated for the biggest Grammy of the night, and even the lone nominees that isn't, eternal sunshine, belongs to one of the biggest names in pop music. My only grudge here is minor, especially since there's no chance she would be winning anyway: I get people were not as high on Radical Optimism, but surely they could have found a place for global icon Dua Lipa instead of forgettable outputs from Ariana Grande and Taylor Swift, right? Anyways, each of the four nominees that are also in the running for Album of the Year are a credible threat to win. As already stated above, you can never discount Taylor Swift's power at the Grammys, but The Tortured Poets Department met enough criticism and muted reception that I would be surprised if it triumphed over three of the most acclaimed Pop releases of the year. Between the trifecta of young stars Billie, Chappell and Sabrina, though? I truly have no idea. My only hunch is that we perhaps won't see what we've seen each of the last two years, where the winner of this award went on to also take the Album of the Year prize. Given the buzz and acclaim for each, I think we may see some vote-splitting, like in 2021 where Dua's Future Nostalgia took home this award over Taylor, but Swift's folklore beat it out for Album of the Year. Because I am a little more bearish on Billlie's likelihood of winning the big one later in the night, I think I'm going to say it might take home this one, but I say that with about 5% confidence. My personal vote, though, is a no-brainer: while I loved Hit Me Hard and Soft, Chappell Roan's debut album was a revelation. Midwest Princess is the epitome of a "no-skips" album. Genuinely- I defy you to find a song whose exclusion from the tracklist would be justified. That level of consistent banger-dom is exceedingly rare in a pop album, especially a pop album that changes directions stylistically as often as this one.
Billie Eilish and Taylor Swift, two historical Grammy darlings and two of the biggest stars on the planet, find themselves locked in several battles throughout Grammy night, including for the 3 biggest awards. Which pop princess will come out on top in Pop categories specifically?
GENERAL
Producer of the Year, Non-Classical
Alissia
Dan Nigro
Dernst "D'Mile" Emile II
Ian Fitchuk
Mustard
Will Win: Dan Nigro
Could Win: Mustard
Should Win: Dan Nigro
Anything BUT: Alissia
Snubbed: A.G. Cook
Songwriter of the Year, Non-Classical
Amy Allen
Édgar Barrera
Jessi Alexander
Jessie Jo Dillon
RAYE
Will Win: RAYE
Could Win: Jessie Jo Dillon
Should Win: RAYE
Anything BUT: Jessie Jo Dillon
Snubbed: Ezra Koenig
A new addition to the Grammys ceremony this year will be special recognition for individual producers and songwriters amidst the major General categories. It's a cool move for the Academy to make, but truthfully, I don't have a wealth of knowledge about the producers and songwriters in the industry, so my guesses and preferences both were largely based off of just scrolling who they worked with and for in this last year.
Dan Nigro's chief collaborators are the formidable 1-2 Gen Z pop girlie punch of Olivia Rodrigo and Chappell Roan, so he's a fairly safe bet to win, I think, and fine by me if so; he did produce one of my favorite albums of the last year, after all. I must say I am a little surprised at the lack of acknowledgement in this field for anyone involved with brat, though. A.G. Cook in particular has a right to feel miffed, I think; that album's surprised success and complete cultural domination this summer was thanks in no small part to the electric, overloaded hyperpop production. Cook not ony manned most of brat-- including Record of the Year nominee "360," he also has credits with Caroline Polachek, Sky Ferreira and multiple movie soudntracks in the last eligibility year.
As for the songwriter contenders, I'm even more lost, but I'll tell you what: Vampire Weekend's Only God Was Above Us moved me lyrically more than any album not just this year, but perhaps in the last several years, and that was almost entirely down to the existential and contemplative meanderings of Ezra Koenig. As for the nominees who did make the cut, the question completely centers around how voters will view RAYE's nomination. She is an experienced and respected songwriter who has cut her teeth in this industry through being just that...but she's also a gifted singer and musician in her own right, who herself is nominated at these awards for her own work. There's a chance voters might see this as a way to ensure her a win at these Grammys that she may not otherwise get, but there's also a chance they might see the 'songwriter AND artist' lane as "cheating." My hunch, however, is it will be the former.
Best New Artist
Benson Boone
Chappell Roan
Doechii
Khruangbin
RAYE
Sabrina Carpenter
Shaboozey
Teddy Swims
Will Win: Sabrina Carpenter
Could Win: Chappell Roan
Should Win: Chappell Roan
Anyone BUT: Benson Boone
Snubbed: The Last Dinner Party
If you've kept up with The Couch, you will know that a couple weeks ago, I previewed this very award! This is an absolutely loaded field, which is refreshing after snoozefests the last four years. Best New Artist is one of the biggest awards of the night, and had a nice streak in the 2010s of being a highly competitive race, but the last two years big breakthrough names were few and far between, and in the two years before that, the winners were only ever going to be Olivia Rodrigo and Megan Thee Stallion, respectively. While I wish there would have been a spot reserved for my new indie rock faves The Last Dinner Party, this is a slate of nominees that brings to mind the absolutely stacked race from 5 years ago; I can name at least one tune by each of the 8 nominees, and in Chappell Roan, Sabrina Carpenter, and Shaboozey, you have artists that brought some of the biggest hits of 2024. That's to say nothing of Doechii and RAYE, both of whom have earned an enormous amount of hype in the last year almost entirely down to widespread industry appreciation of their already impressive track record of artistry. That said, loaded race and all, it would qualify as a bona fide shock if anybody but Roan or Carpenter took home this award tonight. The sudden rise of the two pop starlets were THE stories in music this last year, going from little-known artists with niche fanbases to everywhere on your radio and TV screens and commanding massive live crowds. For most of the year, I would have written Chappell Roan in with permanent marker as the winner of this award; her sudden takeover of the pop culture scene was a sensation that harkened back to Billie Eilish's breakout in 2019. But I just don't know...as we got further and further removed from her newer release, and her unapologetically outspoken public appearances began to rub some people the wrong way, Sabrina's star just kept shining brighter and brighter, culminating in her own Christmas special, and it's started to feel like she might be the more 'palatable' future star for industry voters. I hope against hope that I'm wrong-- I don't have any real negative feeling towards Sabrina, but Chappell is just such an exciting, fresh bona fide talent -- but I've unfortunately become used to the Grammys disappointing me.
Song Of The Year
"A Bar Song (Tipsy)" - Shaboozey
"BIRDS OF A FEATHER" - Billie Eilish
"Die With A Smile" - Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars
"Fortnight" - Taylor Swift feat. Post Malone
"Good Luck, Babe!" - Chappell Roan
"Not Like Us" - Kendrick Lamar
"Please Please Please" - Sabrina Carpenter
"TEXAS HOLD 'EM" - Beyoncé
Will Win: “Good Luck, Babe!"
Could Win: “BIRDS OF A FEATHER"
Should Win: “Not Like Us"
Anything BUT: “Fortnight"
Snubbed: “euphoria" - Kendrick Lamar
Again, if you've kept up with The Couch, you know I also previewed this one! Apart from a mediocre single from Taylor Swift, which fortunately I don't think has any real shot at winning, this is a really good set of nominees! And, in keeping with the theme of the night, there's no clear favorite. Over half of the songs on this list are also nominees for Record of the Year, and most of them were among the biggest songs of the year, as well. A win for Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars' collaboration would be annoying, just because it would reek of the Academy defaulting to their old, more traditional faves, rather than branching out with any of the more exciting releases, many from younger artists, but I won't lie and say I didn't really enjoy that tune. Billie Eilish is the reigning winner, having taken home the award last year for her Barbie song "What Was I Made For?" Given that this is defined as the "songwriters' award," and Billie has already proven herself to be a lethal songwriter in both music and lyrics, it makes sense. However, I'm going to predict a mild upset here. Both because Billie has two wins in this award already, including just last year, and because I (unfortunately) don't expect Chappell Roan to win much on the night otherwise, I think this might be where the Academy decides to give the breakout star her flowers. It would be a wholly deserving win: "Good Luck, Babe!" is a terrific song, and one of the biggest and buzziest of the year. My hope, however, is that Chappell wins enough other awards that this one can go to Kendrick's "Not Like Us," another song that completely defined music in 2024. (Even if-- potentially hot take alert! --it wasn't even Kendrick's best song from the Drake feud. I would have loved to instead see the masterfully written "euphoria" carry the banner from that beef in this category.)
Record Of The Year
"360" - Charli XCX
"BIRDS OF A FEATHER" - Billie Eilish
"Espresso" - Sabrina Carpenter
"Fortnight" - Taylor Swift feat. Post Malone
"Good Luck, Babe!" - Chappell Roan
"Not Like Us" - Kendrick Lamar
"Now and Then" - The Beatles
"TEXAS HOLD 'EM" - Beyoncé
Will Win: “Now and Then"
Could Win: “Espresso"
Should Win: “Good Luck, Babe!"
Anything BUT: “Fortnight"
Snubbed: “Houdini" - Dua Lipa
Guess what? I also previewed this one! Perhaps unsurprisingly, given the high amount of overlap between the nominees for both awards, I consider the race for Record of the Year-- which recognizes the producer(s) rather than the songwriter(s) -- equal, if not even stronger than that of Song of the Year. Taylor and Post Malone's collaboration is once again the weak link here, and just like in the Pop categories, I would have loved to see her spot instead go to Dua Lipa, whose lead single "Houdini" was the best pop single of late 2023. But unlike in Song of the Year, this race sees the inclusion of the omnipresent Charli XCX. It also sees Sabrina Carpenter swapping out "Please Please Please" for "Espresso," which, given the latter's status as the biggest song of 2024, vaulted her to the betting-odds favorite for this award. It will again face competition, though, with the smash hits from Chappell Roan, Billie Eilish, and Beyoncé. Unfortunately for all of the pop girlies, however...this race also sees the highly unexpected inclusion of The Beatles. As in, the greatest and most famous band of all time, The Beatles. Are they as relevant in 2025 as they were in 1965? Of course not, but given the lads' place in world history, the significance of "Now and Then" being the 'last Beatles song ever,' and the impressive production feat involved in resurrecting recording snippets from some 50 years ago to master a cohesive track, I have a sneaking suspicion Paul and Ringo might take this one home.
Album Of The Year
brat – Charli XCX
COWBOY CARTER – Beyoncé
Djesse Vol. 4 – Jacob Collier
Hit Me Hard and Soft – Billie Eilish
New Blue Sun – André 3000
The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess – Chappell Roan
Short n' Sweet – Sabrina Carpenter
The Tortured Poets Department – Taylor Swift
Will Win: Short n' Sweet
Could Win: Hit Me Hard and Soft
Should Win: The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess
Anything BUT: The Tortured Poets Department
Snubbed: Only God Was Above Us - Vampire Weekend
As I touched on in my preview of this award (yeah, this one too!), this also appears to be a far more competitive race than in years past, which has often spat out two-horse races (Taylor Swift vs. SZA last year, Billie Eilish vs. Olivia Rodrigo-- neither of whom won, in a shock twist -- in 2022, Dua Lipa vs. Taylor in 2021, etc.).
No, this one genuinely feels wide open, in large part because of how many big names are up for the big awards. But it's not just the quantity of star power; it's the fact that there isn't a traditional frontrunner. By far the biggest and most established mainstream pop stars nominated here are:
Taylor Swift, who always wins Grammys and who once again topped the charts with her newest album, but whose work got mixed reviews and was nowhere near the 'cultural reset' her previously nominated works were
Beyoncé, whose album was both culturally impactful and very well-received, but who famously never wins major Grammys and strangely did minimal promotion for COWBOY CARTER, and
Billie Eilish, who-- like Taylor -- always wins Grammys, but had a somewhat quieter release with this 3rd album, and may also suffer from voter fatigue, given her 6 major Grammy wins and 10 major nominations in the last several years alone
Conventional Grammy wisdom states that that very dynamic might open the door for a shock winner like Jacob Collier or André 3000, and that is entirely possible- we are, after all, just three years removed from Jon Batiste winning this award over the likes of Billie, Taylor, Olivia Rodrigo, Justin Bieber and Lil Nas X.
I think the likelier effect, though, is that you could see the voting energy be funneled into one of the three most exciting, 'buzzy' nominees who were phenomenons this year. Chappell Roan exploded onto the scene in the first third of 2024, Charli XCX took over the airwaves in summer with brat, and Sabrina Carpenter was everywhere in 2024's closing months. Either of the former two would be extremely exciting choices by the Academy, a rare instance of them having a finger on the pulse of what is fresh and exciting within the culture. And I'll admit: so deep is my love for The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess and my instant appreciation for Chappell Roan that I will full-throatedly yell my support if it wins, even if it comes at the expense of my beloved Beyoncé.
But look, both because I've talked myself into getting optimistic for the artists/groups I would love to win, only to get crushed with disappointment too many times, and because last year was literally the first time I got this award prediction correct* in my 9 years of Grammy forecasting, I have to assume the Academy will do what they've done the last couple years, and go with the safest, most straightforward release. I hiinted at this in my Best New Artist discussion, but as we've inched closer and closer to Grammy time, I've increasingly had a gut feeling that Sabrina Carpenter is the 'next gen star' the industry feels most comfortable getting behind. And amidst an Album of the Year field that includes several records with wildly experimental changes of direction, and some with runtimes that exceed an hour, I wouldn't be surprised if many a jaded voter might just have an added layer of appreciation for the 35 minute, straightforward bubbly pop of Short n' Sweet.
*If you're curious, my incorrect picks through the years: Beyoncé's Lemonade (2017), Lorde's Melodrama (2018), Drake's Scorpion (2019), Lizzo's Cuz I Love You (2020), Dua Lipa's Future Nostalgia (2021), Olivia Rodrigo's SOUR (2022), Adele's 30 (2023)
My only other comment on this final award is to say that, as often as I gripe about Grammy nominations, I feel like I should be fair and say, for the third straight year, I actually have very few complaints about this Album of the Year field. That said, the total and complete lack of Vampire Weekend at this ceremony, and in this award in particular, is a crime. Only God Was Above Us was a masterpiece, a new-age Indie revival that showcased so much musical versatility and lyrical thematic depth. Especially given that VW have been nominated for Album of the Year before, it's stunning that the Academy didn't vote to include it as a change of pace among an otherwise Pop-dominated field.
Chappell Roan and Sabrina Carpenter were two of 2024's biggest stories in music, and both find themselves nominated for all four "Big 4" awards at the Grammys. Might one of them get the perfect cherry on top of a mammoth year by taking top honors at these awards?
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