The Nominees: Album Of The Year
Beyoncé has famously been scorned in the Album of the Year race not once, not twice, not thrice, but FOUR times. Will it be 5 times lucky for her "country and everything else" album?
Mere days remain until the Grammys ceremony, and the last general category up in our pre-Grammys preview is also the biggest award of the night: Album of the Year! If you missed it, below are the three other major awards we've already previewed:
As has been discussed on this blog many a time, this is the closest equivalent to a Best Picture for the Grammys. Album of the Year recognizes a full catalog of musicianship, and historically, this is the one category the Grammys have actually done a fairly good job of nominating the best in addition to the biggest. That being said, that has not always (or even often) translated to the best body of work actually winning the prize. Case in point: in alternating years, Kendrick Lamar and Beyoncé lost the award despite having the biggest AND best albums of their respective eligibility periods. The winners haven't provided much clarity either: where Kacey Musgraves' victory in 2019 for Golden Hour might have signified a change in the tide in that regard, Billie Eilish's clean sweep of the major awards the next year, including a win in this category for When We All Fall Asleep, Where Do We Go? was a reversion to "biggest name wins. Then, the year following, all theories, trends and prognosticators were thrown aside when the award stunningly went to Jon Batiste for his record We Are. But then in the next two years, the award just went to the pop star du jour, with Harry Styles in 2023 and Taylor Swift last year. So, in other words, who really knows?
In my preview of the contenders for this award last fall, I did highlight all but one of the eventual nominees as possible names you'd hear called, and even correctly predicted 6/8 eventual nominees! That said, before I toot my own horn too much, the six names I got right were six of the biggest names in pop music, and if the last couple years has taught us anything, it's to expect the unexpected. So, let those guessing games begin!
In order from worst to best odds, according to GoldDerby.com:
Djesse Vol. 4 - Jacob Collier
Odds: 21-1
Peak Chart Position (Billboard): n/a
Metacritic rating: n/a
Strongest Song: "Box of Stars Pt.1"/"Box of Stars Pt. 2"
Weakest Song: "WELLLL"
Daniel's Overall Rating: 6/10
Collier is so talented— a musical savant, even —but it often seems like he doesn't really know how to channel that energy into a cohesive record, so he just sort of tries literally everything. And sometimes on Djesse Vol. 4 this works, like in the cinematic and continuous Pts. 1 and 2 of “Box of Stars”, or the Indian-infused “A Rock Somewhere." Other times it really doesn't, like in the album opener “100,000 Voices” or the scream-punk attempt “WELLL.” Most of the time, the end result is just nice, but not at all impactful. This album is not an impressive artistic end product, and made little to no cultural impact, so its longshot status is justified.
New Blue Sun - André 3000
Odds: 10-1
Peak Chart Position (Billboard): 34th
Metacritic rating (out of 100): 77
Strongest Song: "Ninety Three 'Til Infinity and Beyoncé"
Weakest Song: "Ghandi, Dalai Lama, Your Lord And Savior J.C./Bundy, Jeffrey Dahmer, And John Wayne Gacy"
Daniel's Overall Rating: 5/10
André 3000 is such an icon in the music world, that it's hard to consider him an underdog in anything. After all, he was part of Outkast, who were the last hip-hop winners of Album in the Year, 20 years ago for Speakerboxx/The Love Below (and yes, that 20 year gap reflects pretty pathetically on the Academy). That said, anybody who tells you they saw this nomination coming would be lying- the man himself admitted to being very surprised by it. There's a simple reason for that: it's not André as we know him. New Blue Sun is not a hip-hop album in the least, but rather an 80-minute experimental jazz flute record. No, I'm not kidding. Yes, I did listen to it in entirety. Do not listen to this album if you're trying to stay awake, is all I’ll say. To be honest, all the songs pretty much blended together, but I was a fan of the shortest song’s jazzy beat and Queen Bey-adulating title, and found the following track especially honky and tooty. I’m not really sure how to rate it, honestly, because it's such a specific genre/mood album, and to its credit, it’s not trying to be anything other than that. Within the lane it's in, for all I know, it's a 10/10. I just don't care to occupy that lane all too often. I will say, I love that it's nominated; I hope that encourages some wildly different-looking nominees in years future. But, amidst a field crowded with the biggest names in pop music today, it surely won’t win, nor should it.
brat - Charli XCX
Odds: 8-1
Peak Chart Position (Billboard): 3rd
Metacritic rating: 95
Strongest Song: "360"
Weakest Song: "I think about it all the time"
Daniel's Overall Rating: 8/10
Few albums caused the nationwide (even worldwide) sensation that Charli XCX's brat did, its brash and minimalist cover art popping up on billboards and merchandise across the globe, and its profane but honest attitude sparking memes that even infiltrated the Presidential election. I will confess, I am not as big a Charli-head as many whose music opinions I respect are, nor was as I as all in on brat as most. But I do have a positive enough view of Charli XCX and did enjoy this record enough to be completely on board with the sensation that was "brat summer," and the record itself has enormous replay value. Where only a couple tracks jumped out to me on first listen, over the last half of the year, I found at least 6 different songs on brat could be liable to pop into my brain at any moment. I have to imagine Charli's long odds here are down simply to her still fairly niche appeal, and the fact that all nominees still to come in this article are much more established or mainstream pop artists. In terms of both artistic acheivement and cultural impact, though, you'd be hard-pressed to find a more deserving winner.
The Tortured Poets Department - Taylor Swift
Odds: 15-2
Peak Chart Position (Billboard): 1st
Metacritic rating: 76
Strongest Song: "Guilty As Sin?"
Weakest Song: "Who's Afraid Of Little Old Me?"
Daniel's Overall Rating: 5.5/10
It's ironic that Taylor Swift is very publicly dating a star on the Kansas City Chiefs, because her Grammy reign is starting to feel like an awful lot like the chokehold the Chiefs have over the NFL. She already has set the Grammy record with 4 Album of the Year wins, the most recently coming just last year, has earned two wins in this half-decade already (reigning winner Midnights, and folklore in 2021), and each of her last 5 albums has earned the distinction of being nominated for this award. Here she is again, nominated for her April 2024 release The Tortured Poets Department. Inasmuch as it can even be a surprise, though, this nomination-- unlike most if not all of her previous --came as somewhat of a surprise. Tortured Poets was met with more critical pushback than Swift has gotten in a long time, and didn't spawn any mega-popular hits in the way Midnights did. Now, I had listened to bits and pieces of the album, but finally completed my first full listen in preparation for this piece, and I have to say…. I just don't get it. Sorry. It's not bad; there’s hardly any song I find unpleasant. It's just not very good, or remotely interesting. A couple small highlights exist in the swingy “Guilty As Sin?,” or perky and ironic “My Boy Only Breaks His Favorite Toys,” but most of the album reeks of overindulgence: over-produced, and far too overly self-involved, no better epitomized than in the truly laughable "Who's Afraid of Little Old Me?” There’s a chance she could win, of course, much the same as there is always a chance the Kansas City Chiefs could win; you can never count her out. But this is the first time in a while where I truly cannot hear any objective argument for why such a win would be deserved.
Short n' Sweet - Sabrina Carpenter
Odds: 7-1
Peak Chart Position (Billboard): 1st
Metacritic rating: 82
Strongest Song: "Please Please Please"
Weakest Song: "Lie to Girls"
Daniel's Overall Rating: 7.5/10
In an ordinary year, Sabrina Carpenter would be the unequivocal biggest story in music. The former Disney star, long struggling pop artist, suddenly had a mammoth breakthrough in 2024, to the tune of the biggest song of the year, a massively successful arena tour, a Christmas special on Netflix, and yes, nominations in each of the "Big 4" categories at the Grammys. I will say I had listened through Short n’ Sweet only once, immediately upon release, and my second listen while writing this piece yielded a slight modification from my first. Whereas my first listen was "Nothing special, but hey, good pop album!”, my second time through I actually enjoyed even more than I anticipated. This is a very good pop album, one that lives up to its name: it's short, fun and easily digestible. There are no real skips, although “Lie To Girls” is a bit of a momentum-breaker, and I wish “Bed Chem” would do more with a really funky beat than it does, both lyrically and musically. Both as a pop entry and a commercial success, it’s a worthy nominee. Unfortunately for her chances at this award at least, this was not in fact an ordinary year in music; her competition from the pop world alone includes two of the most famous stars in the world, and two of the biggest sensations in music this year (including one fellow Gen Z breakout star). It's entirely possible, however, that her album's universal palatability, and the double whammy of "next gen star" appeal and "girl next door" appeal proves to be an unstoppable force in this race.
The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess - Chappell Roan
Odds: 11-2
Peak Chart Position (Billboard): 2nd
Metacritic rating: 85
Strongest Song: "Red Wine Supernova"
Weakest Song: "HOTTOGO!"
Daniel's Overall Rating: 9.5/10
Remember how just a second ago, I alluded to Sabrina being just one of two young breakout pop stars in this Album of the Year field? Enter Chappell Roan. In the year of Sabrina's breakthrough, Brat Summer, and the Kendrick-Drake beef, arguably the biggest storyline in all of music was the sudden rise of Chappellmania. When Roan released her debut album The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess in September 2023, she was a little-known singer who had struggled to gain traction as an artist in her six years or so of recording. and had been ingloriously dropped by her label in 2020, and momentarily 'backburnered' by her new producer and frequent collaborator Dan Nigro in favor of labelmate Olivia Rodrigo. But in the early months of 2024, Chappell's popularity grew as she toured with Rodrigo as the latter's opener, social media buzz caught on with her memorable Tiny Desk Concert performance, and when she released new single "Good Luck, Babe!" in April, the secret was out. That single went on to land in the Top 10 and make summer playlists everywhere, but more importantly, it caused just about everyone (myself included) who had NOT already heard about Chappell Roan to go back and catch up on what else this girl had done, at which point The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess got the belated recognition it deserved for being a pop album chock-full of bangers. Nearly a year after its release, it peaked at # 2 on Billboard, and many of its songs (some of them released as singles some 4 years prior) retroactively appeared on the charts. She is a genuine songwriting and vocal talent we have not seen the likes of, arguably, since Lady Gaga exploded onto the scene some 15 years ago, and Midwest Princess is the epitome of a "no-skips" album. Genuinely- I defy you to find a song whose exclusion from the tracklist would be justified. Smash hit "HOTTOGO!" is probably my least-favorite song on the record, and even that one goes too hard at parties and weddings for me to dislike it. That level of consistent banger-dom is exceedingly rare in a pop album, especially a pop album that changes directions stylistically as often as this one. This is on my Mt. Rushmore of pop records from the 2020s, no doubt. I have no clue whether enough members in the Academy share that sentiment to push her to a big win here; I fear Chappell's unapologetic and un-manicured personality and stage persona might rub enough of the old fogies who vote on these things the wrong way. But man, a win for her would be so thrilling and so deserved.
Hit Me Hard and Soft - Billie Eilish
Odds: 11-2
Peak Chart Position (Billboard): 2nd
Metacritic rating: 89
Strongest Song: "CHIHIRO"
Weakest Song: "THE DINER"
Daniel's Overall Rating: 8.5/10
Taylor Swift has a long way to go if she's ever going to lose her title of Grammy Queen, but Billie Eilish at least looks like the first younger artist that could make a genuine run at it. At the ripe old age of 18, Eilish claimed a clean sweep of the Big 4 categories, including this very award, for 2019's When We All Fall Asleep, Where Do We Go? She has since returned to the nominee field at least twice for Album, Record and Song of the Year, doubling up on wins in the latter two for "everything i wanted" (2021) and "What Was I Made For?" (2024), respectively. With everything she does, my appreciation for Billie grows, as does my belief that she's truly a unicorn. She has a more impressive body of work and number of accolades at 22 years old than most artists, especially pop artists, have in their entire career. She's the rare pop star who is mega famous, doesn't seem to hate the fame, and yet, also very much does not chase it. Her non-musical public appearances are almost exclusively to support worthy political candidates and activist causes. And oh yeah...she's damn good at this music thing. Hit Me Hard And Soft came with far less fanfare and promotion than either of her first two albums, but still managed to spawn multiple hit singles, and plays like a record borne out of a couple years of self-discovery and shying away from the public eye. There's so much mature lyricism and such prodigious musicality from start to finish that you could be forgiven for not remembering that she's still only the age of a senior in college. Does Billie need to win Album of the Year? Given the year that was in music, and her copious Grammy accolades already, no. Does she deserve it on merit? Based on how good this album is, for sure. Will she? Precedent says there's a very good chance.
COWBOY CARTER - Beyoncé
Odds: 5-1
Peak Chart Position (Billboard): 1st
Metacritic rating: 91
Strongest Song: "DAUGHTER"
Weakest Song: "ALLIGATOR TEARS"
Daniel's Overall Rating: 9/10
Beyoncé will ride into town on Sunday for her fifth Album of the Year nomination, and a fourth consecutive honor for an album of hers (her last solo studio release to not be nominated for Album of the Year was 2011's 4). And yet, despite this crazy acclaimed streak, as well as her "frontrunner" status, there's a non-zero percent chance she will leave the night the same way she did each of the four previous times: no win for Album of the Year, and in fact, no wins in the major categories at all. Such is the plight of Beyoncé, the most awarded artist in Grammy history, and the most celebrated singer and entertainer of the 21st century: her legions of fans in the masses and in the world of musical criticism never seem to be able to fully counterbalance the prevalent sneering that greets her in most corners, and certainly the Recording Academy. Voters in the genre-specific lanes have routinely elevated Bey; they are the ones who have made it possible for her to become the most decorated ever with 32 Grammys. Yet, in the major awards, with a voting base opened up to the entire Academy, she has almost completely struck out, her lone win from 15 nominations coming in the Song of the Year field in 2010 for "Single Ladies." The Album of the Year shutout is an especially offensive streak when you consider how Beyoncé is one of the few artists completely reimagining 'the album,' and COWBOY CARTER was no different. This was to be Beyoncé's defiant response to feeling rejected by the American country scene, a scene whose music she grew up immersed in, and while I loved the vision, it seemed bound to be so different from anything she had done that the thought kept nagging at me "...what if it isn't good? What if the country world and critics alike all laugh at her?" Silly me. I should have known better than to doubt Bey's quality in the midst of a truly legendary run of albums. The 'country-and-everything-else' album was a masterful second installment of her "Renaissance" trilogy. Sure, it didn't change the hearts or minds of conservative-coded Country Music World, it strayed from keeping country as the central focus, and at 80 minutes, there's bound to be some filler. But the lyrical themes are cohesive as can be, and the musical mastery requires a level of artistry that truly only Beyoncé possesses. Will it win? Despite being the betting odd favorite, just as she was the last 3 times she was nominated, smart money is No; the Grammys hate rewarding Black women. The last Black woman to take home this award was Lauryn Hill in 1999. Yes, TWENTY-SIX YEARS AGO. Still, you can't exactly say the biggest star in the World and most celebrated Grammy winner ever is an underdog, and few albums from anyone matched COWBOY CARTER in its artistry and significance.
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