Grammy Preview: Album of the Year Contestants
If you're anything like me, it felt like the 2024 Grammy Awards happened, like, two months ago. It certainly doesn't seem like the 2025 edition should be on the horizon. Maybe that's just because I have only recently stopped ranting about SZA being snubbed or Taylor Swift getting the biggest awards yet again. Maybe it's because the VMAs and the Emmys literally just happened. Or maybe it's because after three straight years of being in a COVID time warp (let's be real, "normalcy" didn't really fully come back until summer 2022). But regardless, believe it or not, it's time to start thinkin' Grammys again.
Yes, we're back in pre-pandemic 'business as usual' when it comes to the Grammys: in 2023, we saw the return to Los Angeles and the Staples Center for the first time in three years, and now the important checkpoint dates-- eligibility, nominations, voting, and main ceremony --are back in line with how they looked in the 2010s. What that means 35 ago to the day, the "eligibility period" for next year's ceremony closed. And in exactly 35 more days, we musicheads, with eager anticipation, will once again see what from September 2023-August 2024 will be nominated for what is billed as “Music’s biggest night.” As always, my highest level of interest is in the Album of the Year award, widely considered to be the Grammy equivalent of the Best Picture. Let's take a look at some works that I expect to be in the running:
Surefire Candidates
COWBOY CARTER // Beyoncé
If you keep up with the Grammys and/or are in the BeyHive, you know full well the complex history of Beyoncé at the awards. She's the most-awarded individual artist in Grammy history, and yet, has somehow never won Album of the Year-- and in fact, has only ever won one "major" Grammy (Song of the Year for "Single Ladies" in 2009). Queen B still hasn't released any sort of visuals for or tour information pertaining to her latest work, but that hasn't stopped her "country and everything else" record from being one of the most culturally significant and best-reviewed releases of 2024. Whether COWBOY CARTER will be the one to snap Beyoncé's Album of the Year slump remains to be seen, but you could put safe money down on the Grammys not following in the CMA's footsteps and at least including this work among the nominee list.
Hit Me Hard and Soft // Billie Eilish
Billie Eilish may only be 22 years old, and Hit Me Hard and Soft may only be her third full-length album, but her Grammy legacy is already incredibly strong. Billie famously swept all 4 major Grammys including this award for her debut album, was once again nominated for the "big 3" in 2022 for second album Happier Than Ever and its title track, and has since added additional Record of the Year ("everything i wanted" in 2021) and Song of the Year ("What Was I Made For?" this year) wins. Her latest album included far less promotion of individual singles than her first two, by design, but still sold enormously well and is her most-acclaimed project to date. It would be a shock to not see Billie among the nominees for the top honor for a third straight time.
The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess // Chappell Roan
Chappell Roan is one of the biggest stories, if not THE biggest story in music this year. Her meteoric rise from little-known singer to one of the biggest names in pop right now is perhaps best exemplified by the fact that her full-length debut The Rise And Fall of a Midwest Princess garnered next to no headlines upon its release in September 2023, and yet a year later, stands as one of the betting odd favorites to win at the 2025 Grammys. It couldn't be more deserved either, as I discussed in last month's "Mid-Year Grammys" piece. Midwest Princess plays like a modern pop masterpiece that displays Chappell's proficiency as both a songwriter and vocalist. Not only is Roan's debut album a virtual lock to be nominated (and the artist herself likely a lock for Best New Artist), it has a real chance at winning the damn thing.
Contenders
brat // Charli XCX
You'd be hard-pressed to find an album that became 'the moment' this year more than Charli XCX's. After all, it's not often an album claims an entire season the way we experienced with "brat summer." nor is it normal for a presidential candidate's social media team to structure their initial online presence off of it. Charli has been around for a long time, and built up an extremely loyal following, but brat was by far her most critically acclaimed, and her big mainstream breakthrough. Can it mark her Grammys breakthrough too?
Chronicles of a Diamond // Black Pumas
You may be wondering, “just who is Black Pumas, and why should we expect them to be a candidate for Album of the Year?” And that’s a fair question! Black Pumas, a soul-rock duo from Austin, while great, truly haven’t made much of a name for themselves outside the city and genre. And yet, the Grammys are fully aware of them, handing them a surprise nomination for Best New Artist in 2020, then an even bigger surprise nom for Album and Record of the Year in 2021. Their sophomore album may not have made a ton of waves when it came out in late 2023, but the Academy has shown in recent years its proclivity for random faves (H.E.R., Brandi Carlile, Lil Nas X). Plus, Black Pumas occupy a lane with their style that just is not as crowded as it used to be, and has cross-generational appeal.
Deeper Well // Kacey Musgraves
Kacey Musgraves' 2019 Album of the Year win for Golden Hour was one of the rare instances in which the Recording Academy voters absolutely made the right call and opted for the best over the biggest. Ironically, though, Kacey has only gotten bigger and bigger since then, consistently selling out NBA arenas these days, and incorporating more Pop influence amongst her unmistakably Country sound. Deeper Well was a much more restrained offering from the starlet, probably her most meditative and introspective work yet, and as such, doesn't have a smash lead single the way Golden Hour, or even its more divisive successor star-crossed, did, which makes this far from a knockout choice to be nominated. But it is her 2nd-best reviewed project to date, and a mature work of art from a very well-liked artist. Don't be surprised to hear her name called in November.
Djesse Vol. 4 // Jacob Collier
You may be wondering, “just who is Jacob Collier, and why should we expect him to be a candidate for Album of the Year?” And that’s a fair question! Collier, the British multi-instrumentalist, singer-songwriter, and musical ingenue, has built up a decent following largely through social media, but if you're not a music nerd or spend too much time on music TikTok or Instagram, you likely don't know who he is. If this snippet is sounding eerily similar to Black Pumas above, there's a reason for that! Much like the Austin band, Collier was a shock nominee for this very award in 2021, and his Grammy track record, with 12 nominations and 6 wins, far outpaces his fame. He doesn't have a mass appeal or critical acclaim the way that band does-- Djesse Vol. 4 suffered very mixed reviews --but he has earned up a ton of goodwill in the industry and has started to work with some heavy hitters like Coldplay and SZA.
eternal sunshine // Ariana Grande
One of the weirder Grammy quirks is the awards show's tendency to have stars whose hype they just do not get on board with, in general. Ariana Grande is one such star; you may protest, pointing to her 15 nominations over the years, including in this field for thank u, next in 2020, and winning Best Pop Album, for sweetener in 2019. But I would counter by pointing to her status as one of the most famous and beloved pop stars in the world over the last 8 years or so, in juxtaposition with her solitary Grammy win (out of the 15) and solitary Album of the Year nomination. Given this, and the somewhat muted to reception to her first album in 4 years, you'd be hard-pressed to consider her a heavy favorite to be nominated. That said, this is still Ariana Grande we're talking about; she's one of the biggest stars on the planet, and her album was adored by fans even if it didn't make the same critical or cultural splash as some of her past work did. It would be foolish to count her out.
F-1 Trillion // Post Malone
2024 was the year of "pop artists going country," and among the handful of stars that explored this new avenue was the wildly popular Post Malone. F-1 Trillion wasn't a sweeping critical success the way Beyoncé's work (on which Post features, ironically), but it won't surprise you to hear the tatted, ratty-lookin' white boy from Texas had a somewhat easier time breaking into the country world. F-1 Trillion was very well-received by the masses, topping the charts upon release, and staying there for a number of weeks in other countries as well, and most recently, landing the Pop convert 5 nominations at the CMAs. Country music in general has had a harder time at the Grammys, but Post Malone--2-time Album of the Year nominee and 4-time Record of the Year nominee --hasn't. Don't be surprised to see the CMA legitimating translate to Grammy success.
Higher // Chris Stapleton
You know how I basically just said the Grammys don't love Country, but do love Post Malone? Well, the Grammys don't love Country, but they SURE love them some Chris Stapleton. The golden-vocaled artist scored a genre-rare Album of the Year nod in 2016 for the brilliant Traveller, which lost to Taylor Swift (of course) but did win Best Country Album, as did his ensuing two projects, and he has thrice won both Best Country Song and Best Country Solo Performance. So it is a very safe bet that Stapleton will show up heavily in the Country nominations for this record; whether it can break through to the main Album of the Year field remains to be seen, and probably depends on how willing the Academy is to diversify their nominees by genre.
Megan // Megan Thee Stallion
Megan Thee Stallion doesn't have an illustrious Grammy track record, but did get a big one, winning Best New Artist in 2021. The beloved rapper has had a tumultuous past few years in her personal life, being the victim of gun violence, suffering through a very public breakup, losing her mother to illness, and this year, drawing the ire of fellow rap queen Nicki Minaj and her infamous fanbase for a perceived shot at Minaj in her lead single off this album. Throughout it all, though, she's grown into one of rap's biggest stars, and managed to endear herself to her fans even more. Megan doesn't have a ton of hits the way some of her past work has, and black women in hip-hop are already one of the most underrepresented demographics at the Grammys, so don't go betting the house on this album being nominated. But don't be surprised to see an outpouring of goodwill for the beloved star and her most daring work yet.
Nadie Sabe Lo Que Va A Pasar Mañana // Bad Bunny
For a long time, Bad Bunny was in the category of "ignored superstars" I referenced above with Ariana Grande. Then, two years ago, the global sensation finally got his big Grammy moment as Un verano sin ti earned an Album of the Year nod, the first Spanish-language album to do so, and the artist got to open the ceremony with a rousing medley. Can Benito go back-to-back? Nadie Sabe... wasn't quite the sensation its predecessor was, but the album (released in October 2023) did nothing to stunt Bad Bunny's star, charting at #1 on Billboard yet again, and it was another very well-reviewed entry in his catalogue.
Only God Was Above Us // Vampire Weekend
Vampire Weekend is not quite as much the talk of the town in the year of our lord 2024 as they were in Indie's heyday, in the late aughts and early 2010s. But those who still know them still love them, and you can rest assured the Grammys know them. After all, each of the group's first 3 albums were nominated for Best Alternative Album, with Modern Vampires of the City finally scoring them a win in 2014. And despite it being both their lowest-charting and least-acclaimed release, 2019's Father of the Bride secured them an elusive Album of the year nod, and its lead single a nomination of Record of the Year and a win for Best Rock Song. It stands to reason, then, that its successor would be a strong candidate for at least the same level of recognition: Only God Was Above Us might just be their best work yet. This latest project builds on everything the band has done well musically over the years, adds several layers of lyrical profundity, and is one of the best-reviewed works of 2024.
Radical Optimism // Dua Lipa
The stage was set nicely for this to be Dua Lipa's year, even amidst a field loaded with megastars. Her last album, Future Nostalgia, was nominated for this award in 2021, and even though it didn't win, is still heralded by many (including yours truly) as a modern Pop Gospel, and it spawned a wildly successful arena tour. Amidst dipping into the worlds of acting and informed podcasting, and opening the last Grammys ceremony with an electric performance, it seemed as if Dua's forthcoming album would launch her into rare air as a popstar...and then it kinda didn't. If the hot take artists on Twitter are to be listened to, Radical Optimism was an enormous flop. That's not entirely fair-- it is still a good Pop record, got decent reviews overall, and sold incredibly well worldwide. But there's no question the general reaction to this release, especially domestically, was far more muted than just about anyone expected of 'the star incumbent.' Is that enough to totally damage her Album of the Year chances? This will be a nice test of Dua's star power; even if labeled a "flop" here, her latest work has made her even more massive globally, and she's a Grammys starchild, earning nominations for each of the "Big Four" categories in her career and winning Best New Artist in 2019. Might that be enough to offset a middling entry in a chock-full year for Pop artists?
Scarlet // Doja Cat
Doja Cat, who first found some fame with a sardonic online presence and funny tongue-in-cheek songs, has quietly and perhaps unexpectedly turned into quite the all-around star. Not only has she developed as a versatile artist, she's found mega success in terms of sales and has developed into one of the most riveting entertainers out there. She's also picked up a surprising amount of Grammys love in recent years, with three consecutive Record of the Year nods ("Say So", "Kiss Me More", and "Woman"), and two years ago, an Album of the Year nomination for Planet Her. A more crowded field this year than in 2022 will make it a little harder for Scarlet to crash the party, as will its lack of a true smash hit like she's had in just about each of the previous 5 years. But she's earned enough credibility from the Academy and the masses both to be a real contender.
Short n' Sweet // Sabrina Carpenter
If Chappell Roan's sudden rise was reminiscent of Billie Eillish (devoted but niche online fanbase -> suddenly taking over the music scene and mainstream radio both), Sabrina Carpenter's is reminiscent of Olivia Rodrigo's: former Disney star known by fans of Disney and/or Broadwayheads but not by the masses, until she suddenly drops an inescapable banger, followed by another, riding a crest of instant mega popularity to a well-received, #1-charting Pop album release. (I wouldn't be doing my job as a pop culture critic if I didn't point out the irony of the parallel, given that Rodrigo's breakout song was widely believed to be about her ex's then-relationship with Sabrina in 2020.) In many years, such a breakout pop star with a bona fide Record and/or Song of the Year nominee would be a virtual lock for Album of the Year, too. In this year, with Chappell already probably occupying the "lock" status from a Best New Artist lane and so many huge stars in the mix, I can't call it a guarantee. But a bet that she will find her way in the field amidst nods for Best New Artist and Record/Song is, I think, still a safe one.
The Tortured Poets Department // Taylor Swift
You guys hear about this up and comer? Name's Taylor Swift, feels like she's got a real chance to break through to the mainstream! Kidding, of course- Taylor Swift needs no introduction. In addition to being one of the biggest stars on the planet, her track record at these awards alone is sterling: with just about every release (and re-release, for that matter), she's a constant name among the list for the biggest awards of the night, and just this year, became the first artist to win this very award four times. So bound in stone is her Grammy legacy that I thought about just putting her down as a surefire nominee...except for the fact that this latest album just isn't very good. The reviews from critics were okay overall, but by her own lofty standards it was a miss: Tortured Poets Department was the third-worst reviewed project of her whole discography, and the lowest-reviewed since 2017's Reputation, which was her last new album to not be nominated for Album of the Year. It was of course still wildly successful, but none of the songs, not even a lead single collaborating with Post Malone, really dominated the airwaves or made any sort of cultural impact the way her singles almost always do. Can her sheer star power and favor with the Academy overcome her first significant critical backlash in a while?
What Now? // Brittany Howard
If you're not a total musichead, the name Brittany Howard likely doesn't ring a bell, but she is a significant name in the music sphere. As the frontwoman of Alabama Shakes, she helped take the blues-rock group close to about as popular as you would expect a genuine blues-rock group to get in this day and age, and found Grammys success too (9 nominations, including Best New Artist in 2013 and Album of the Year in 2016, and multiple wins in the Rock categories). Since transitioning to a solo career in the last 5 years, Howard has continued to both prove her proficiency as a guitarist and singer-songwriter, and find favor with the Recording Academy, earning 7 more nominations of her own, and a win in 2021 for Best Rock Song ("Stay High"). What Now? was quiet enough of a release-- and while melodically very pleasant, less punchy than a lot of her previous work --to put a lot of money on it being up for the big award this year. But, much of what was said earlier about Black Pumas could also apply to Miss Howard: the Grammys know her, they love her, and she won't face a whole lot of competition within the realm of Southern bluesy-rock, clearing a way for her to crash the field.
Where I've Been, Isn't Where I'm Going // Shaboozey
In a year full of breakout artists, the likes of which we probably haven't seen since at least 2019, perhaps the most surprising of them all was Shaboozey. The hip-hop/country singer has been in the game for about a decade now, but has become an overnight sensation this year, thanks in no small part to his considerable participation in Beyoncé's COWBOY CARTER. He featured on three different songs on that album, and fans took Beyoncé's call in earnest to seek out the Black country artists that may not be getting the attention they deserve. Soon after, his new single off this very album was released, "Bar Song (Tipsy)," and it went crazy, shooting to the top of the charts, and earning multiple distinctions, such as making Shaboozey the first black Country artist with a #1 song, and recently, becoming the longest-running #1 song of the year. The artist himself has earned Best New Artist and Song of the Year nods at multiple Country awards shows, winning the former recently at the People's Choice Country Awards. Can all this momentum carry Shaboozey to an Album of the Year nod here? The project itself may still be a little too obscure to get there, but he's a virtual lock for Best New Artist, and I would expect "Bar Song (Tipsy)" to be in the field for at least one of Record and Song of the Year. It's certainly not too much of a stretch to think that might translate to getting in the field for this big award, too.
Longshots
All Born Screaming // St. Vincent
Indie rocker St. Vincent is incredibly well-respected in the music industry, and is no stranger to the Grammys, winning all 4 times in her career she's been nominated (Best Alternative Album for each of her last 3 releases, and Best Rock Song in 2019 for "Masseduction"). Still, even with that perfect track record, a memorable performance at the ceremony 5 years ago, and good reviews for All Born Screaming, making the final nominees would be a longshot. If her self-titled album in 2015 and Daddy's Home in 2022, both better-reviewed and in weaker years for music, couldn't crash the party, and neither could 2019's Masseduction, her most mainstream-friendly release to date, it seems unlikely that this record, a return to her more experimental rock, will do so.
Bando Stone and the New World // Childish Gambino
Similarly to St. Vincent, Childish Gambino is a wildly experimental artist that somewhat surprisingly does have Grammys pedigree-- and in fact even more so! He was nominated for each of the biggest 3 awards in 2018, thanks to album "Awaken, My Love!" and its hit single "Redbone." And though he went o-fer that year, the following year his single "This Is America" swept both Record and Song of the Year, becoming the first Rap song ever to do so in the process. Donald Glover is also a wildly talented and popular multi-hyphenate, so crazier things have happened than him earning a 2nd Album of the Year nomination this year. But in such a loaded year for music, and with this particular record, which was decently-reviewed but didn't make a big chart impression and/or have a noteworthy lead single, I think it's a stretch.
Coming Home // Usher
One thing I will give the Grammys some credit for is the fact that over the last decade-plus they have largely gone away from favoring artists who are about 20 years past being in the eye of the mainstream. Why do I bring this up? Because, trigger warning for elder millennials: Usher is an “oldie” now, and considering the only Grammy splash he saw was for his absolute peak way back in the Confessions era (confirm), chances are pretty slim that this will be the record that gets him back in the Academy’s eyeline. That said, he’s still a huge name, he fronted a wildly entertaining Super Bowl halftime show this very year, and there’s a shortage of strong R&B (a genre that tends to do very well with at least garnering nominations) contenders, so stranger things have happened.
Golden // Jung Kook
If the Grammys were always inexplicably immune to BTS hype, chances are they won’t randomly save a spot for one of its members’ solo efforts. Still, Golden was a huge solo success for Jung-kook, and between BTS’s live ceremony performance in 2022, Best New Artist nominations for Rosalía and Anitta, and the Bad Bunny major nods and ceremony opener last year, the Academy has shown an increased proclivity for recognizing global acts, not just American or British stars.
The Great American Bar Scene // Zach Bryan
It’s no secret that Country tends to not really perform well at the Grammys, and if Zach Bryan couldn’t make the cut last year with his breakthrough album, I see him having a difficult way through with Great American Bar Scene. Besides, like with Rap, the Academy tends to just lean on old favorites which is why I think if anybody from that lane will make the cut, it will be a Chris Stapleton or a Kacey Musgraves. Still, GABS was even more acclaimed than its predecessor and there’s arguably not a brighter star in country right now than Zach Bryan.
Tyla // Tyla
I think the field is just going to be a little too crowded with heavy hitters, including breakout stars, for Tyla, the up-and-coming South African songstress to find a place. Still, and perhaps especially if this were a less loaded year, there's a lot to like about her as a candidate. The Grammys love an exciting new face, she doesn't face a steep amount of R&B competition, and is sure to make appearances in the genre categories with this album and big hit "Water."
Prediction Time
Before I get into my predictions, a quick reminder that, in another reversion to pre-pandemic times, the Grammys announced last year that they are back to 8 nominees for the General categories, after tinkering with as many as 10 for a few years. In 2019, they had just expanded from 5 to 8, and that was presumably to allow them to include and accomodate a wider variety of genres-- though that was also the thought behind the Oscars expanding their Best Picture field, and that change has mostly seen a higher number of the same kind of nominees.
To be fair to the Grammys, an award show that I've lambasted year after year, the results from the first year of the extended field were a remarkable success. All General fields that year saw thoroughly deserving winners, and the nominees reflected remarkable diversity in genre, race, gender, and even popularity. In the years since, though, we got a predictable night full of essentially one winner and one winner only (Billie Eilish), then a year where the biggest star (Taylor Swift) won among an almost incomprehensibly bizarre field of nominees, then a year with a stunning and confusing winner for Album of the Year (Jon Batiste). The last two years, though, have seen somewhat of a reversion to the mean, where absolutely star-studded fields yielded an agreeable but wholly underwhelming winner (Harry Styles in 2023, then Taylor Swift again this year). It serves as a reminder that as often the Grammys have the capability to surprise, they also have the capacity to disappoint.
I really don't know what direction to go in this year. My "automatic bid per genre" theory has sort of panned out, with Rap, Hip/Hop, Country, Pop, R&B, Rock, Indie-Folk and even Disco all represented in the Album of the Year field the last few years. However, many of the individual nominees-- not as much this past year, but certainly in the two years preceding --I would not have seen coming, and a couple I very much expected to see were not among them. There's also the fact that the nominees in the era of an expanded field have tended to be diverse not just in genre, but in race, gender and age. That you can have Tony Bennett, Li'l Nas X, Olivia Rodrigo, Kendrick Lamar, Beyoncé, Brandi Carlile, ABBA, Bad Bunny, and Billie Eilish all included in a two-year span means that just about any of the nominees listed in this article aren't out of the question.
I see a lot of similarities between this race and the race two years ago, though, in that the last calendar year has seen just an enormous amount of good music released, new releases from the biggest names in the music industry, and a fair amount of overlap between the two. I thought perhaps we wouldn’t eat again like we did in 2022 for a very long time, but I was wrong: the music scene in this calendar year has peaked in a manner I’ve never seen before in my adult life, to the extent that if you think about the artists and bands that comprise “the biggest names in music,” it’s a fair bet that whoever you are visualizing is in the running for Album of the Year this year.
In some ways, though, that almost makes my prediction game easier. After all, nearly half the field gets filled right away with my “locks,” and from there, throw a dart and you hit a viable contender. Let’s start with those three surefire candidates, though: who knows if any of Beyoncé, Billie Eilish or Chappell Roan is destined to win the top honor this year, but if all of them aren’t at least nominated for it, I will walk on foot to wherever you live and apologize in person. The two buzziest releases of the summer months, though, belonged to Sabrina Carpenter and certainly Charli XCX. The two’s relative lack of Grammy pedigree kept me from making them certifiable locks to get in, but given their cultural footprint, and omnipresence in the days leading right up to nomination time, it’s hard for me to see brat and Short n’ Sweet not making the cut. And there's over half my field already!
From here it gets a little trickier. Staying in the Pop lane for now- each of Ariana Grande’s, Dua Lipa’s and Taylor Swift’s latest releases met a pretty muted reception, especially in comparison to the pop queens’ precedent. But, while I expect this means they will not all be nominated for Album of the Year, there’s just so, SO much combined star wattage amongst that trio that it’s hard for me to fathom all three being left out. It would be my personal last choice of the three, but given her absolute chokehold over this award in particular (an aforementioned record 4 wins, from 7 nominations total), I have to imagine the most viable candidate here is Taylor Swift.
But! While there are enough major releases from major stars to have a “Pop-only” field this year, I don’t think that will be the case. There were, after all, a fair amount of very well-received releases from the Indie lane, too, as well as from Country and Hip-Hop, and I do think the voting support from within those genres may be less fractious than in the Pop field and thus face less of a roadblock to championing an album all the way to the Grammys mainstage. There’s been a slew of esteemed indie artists in particular riding this route to an AotY nod in recent years: think boygenius, Jon Batiste, Brandi Carlile, HAIM, Jacob Collier, Bon Iver, all in the 2020s. Oh yeah, and Vampire Weekend! Their somewhat surprising inclusion in the 2020 field indicated this was no longer a group the Grammys would sleep on, and with one of the best-received albums of 2024 (and a very successful arena tour to match), I have to imagine VW will find their way into the field this year as well.
Now, for the last spot, there’s obviously a bevy of directions I could go in. One last Pop outreach for a Dua or an Ariana? Another recognition of a rising star in Shaboozey, or Jung-Kook, or even “Beautiful Things” singer Benson Boone? A Country or Rap ‘auto bid’ for Kacey, or Chris, or Zach, or Megan, or Doja? All would be valid guesses, but I’m going to go in a different direction: I've noticed more than one instance in the last several years of the Grammys latching on to someone 'surprising,' and never really letting them go. H.E.R. is the most extreme example, the little-known R&B artist who suddenly boasted 3 Album of the Year, a Best New Artist and 3 Record/Song of the Year nods in a 4-year span. But there's also Brandi Carlile, who was a surprise inclusion in the 2019 AOTY race, but wouldn't you know it, was back in it two years ago with her next album, and also found herself in the Song of the Year category 4 times in a 5-year span. Last year, I used this exact observation to predict that Jon Batiste, surprise nominee AND winner in 2022, would be back in the mix with his World Music Radio, and wouldn’t you know it? He was. That candidate this year? None other than Black Pumas, who have already garnered nominations for all 4 major awards in years past despite very little mainstream recognition, and whose inclusion in the field would solve its problems of both the relative lack of color, and complete lack of Blues/Rock. I’m not saying it’s a guarantee— far from it —but when everyone else is shocked to hear their name called, well…. to quote our reigning Album of the Year winner, “don’t say I didn’t, say I didn’t warn ya.”
So if you've lost track- my final prediction, in alphabetical order, is:
brat // Charli XCX
Chronicles of a Diamond // Black Pumas
COWBOY CARTER // Beyoncé
Hit Me Hard and Soft // Billie Eilish
Only God Was Above Us // Vampire Weekend
The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess // Chappell Roan
Short n' Sweet // Sabrina Carpenter
The Tortured Poets Department // Taylor Swift
The following just missed my cut, and if nominated, should be considered in the tier of "Gahhhh, I knew I should have predicted that":
Deeper Well // Kacey Musgraves
Radical Optimism // Dua Lipa
Higher // Chris Stapleton
eternal sunshine // Ariana Grande
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