Your Necessary 2025 Oscars Viewing Guide
In preparation for tonight's Oscars, we at The Couch have provided a rundown of the some of the most major awards. Yes, only a handful of awards and not every single one. Do not take this to mean I don't think highly of the nominees for the likes of Best Short Film and Best Production Design, but rather that they will likely receive less attention, and in truth, I am a fair bit less informed about those nominees than I am for the following 12 categories. This Oscars has a couple of the usual slam dunk categories, but in general, is vastly more competitive than we've become accustomed to in recent years, including in the biggest race of them all. As a result, I am far less confident in these selections than I typically am. Who knows who will take top honors? We'll find out shortly, at least! I have made predictions for each highlighted award, as well as sharing my thoughts on the potential spoilers, should-be winners, should-NOT-be winners, and snubs. Enjoy, and happy viewing!
Best Original Score
Daniel Blumberg, The Brutalist
Volker Bertelmann, Conclave
Clément Ducol and Camille, Emilia Pérez
John Powell and Stephen Schwartz, Wicked
Kris Bowers, The Wild Robot
Will Win: Daniel Blumberg
Could Win: John Powell and Stephen Schwartz
Should Win: Daniel Blumberg
Anything BUT: “Clément Ducol and Camille
Snubbed: Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, Challengers
It's been a tragic awards circuit for music in the movies from this past year. Emilia Pérez being legitimized by many an awards show, most egregiously winning the Best Picture - Musical Golden Globe overWicked. The total oversight of an actually insightful trans story and a wonderful original song candidate, Kristen Wiig's tune for her friends in Will & Harper. The announcement from the Academy that they are doing away with the live performances of the Best Original Song nominees in this year's ceremony. But no musical Oscar snub, and in fact, perhaps no Oscar snub in general was as egregious as the omission of Challengers from the Original Score category. Say what you want about the film in general (I enjoyed it, but don't feel aggrieved that it's struck out here at the Oscars), but that pulsating techno score from Reznor and Ross was electric; the heartbeat of that film, and the buzziest soundtrack to any film in years. Of the nominees that did make the cut, however, Daniel Blumberg's grand score for the sweeping epic The Brutalist appears poised to win, and fair enough. The nominees (sans Emilia Pérez) were varying degrees of pleasant, but the music of The Brutalist is the only one of these that made the cut that really stuck with me.
Best Animated Feature
Flow
Inside Out 2
Memoirs of a Snail
Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
The Wild Robot
Will Win: Flow
Could Win: The Wild Robot
Should Win: Flow
Anything BUT: Inside Out 2
Snubbed: Look Back
This is a terrific crop of nominees! I'm not an avid animated film watcher any more, but I saw four of the five nominees this year out of my own interest, and the lone one I didn't get to, Memoirs of a Snail, I have heard great things about. This was not the strongest installment of Inside Out nor Wallace and Gromit overall, but I love the source material so much that I'll hardly complain should it come to one of them. But it does seem like this is shaping up to be a two-horse race between the Golden Globe winner (and concurrent International Film nominee) Flow and The Wild Robot, with momentum shifting towards the latter. I did love and find Wild Robot particularly moving, but I still think the novelty of the Latvian, dialogue-less Flow will win the day, and deservedly so if it does. It's a beautiful, mesmerizing journey through a fictional animal apocalypse.
Best Documentary Feature
Black Box Diaries
No Other Land
Porcelain War
Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat
Sugarcane
Will Win: No Other Land
Could Win: Porcelain War
Should Win: No Other Land
Anything BUT: Porcelain War
Snubbed: Direct Action
Another terrific selection of nominees, in which I've been fortunate enough to see all but one. Ironically, the one I'm yet to see has become the betting odd favorite. I'm sure The Porcelain War is well done, and I certainly won't be too upset should a story diving deep into the Russian invasion of Ukraine win, especially given the embarrassment in the Oval Office earlier this week. However, given that the last two winners of this award have centered around the Russian war machine, it would be nice to see a different focus win this time. No Other Land was my favorite film from 2024; an absolute gut-punch of a watch that puts you on the ground in Palestine, as Israeli settlers encroach and maim on their land with more and more direct aggression.
Best International Feature
Emilia Pérez (France)
Flow (Latvia)
The Girl With the Needle (Denmark)
I'm Still Here (Brazil)
The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany)
Will Win: I'm Still Here
Could Win: Emilia Pérez
Should Win: I'm Still Here
Anything BUT: Emilia Pérez
Snubbed: All We Imagine As Light (India)
Despite the potential for this to be one of the most memorable Oscars in recent memory due to all the competitive races, I've been burned by the interests of the Academy enough to feel fairly pessimistic coming into tonight. This is the one shred of optimism I'm allowing myself to believe: I think any sort of momentum behind the inexplicable13-time nominee Emilia Pérez has run its course, and where that dreadful film seemed to be the runaway favorite for this award for a long time, it now suddenly faces some very tough competition, including possible Best Animated Feature winner Flow and fellow Best Picture nominee I'm Still Here. I would be delighted for either of those to win instead, and expect the latter might just do it; more than one (anonymous) Oscar voter has already said that they hadn't heard of the excellent Brazilian drama until it was nominated for Best Picture, but once they watched it, found it tremendous. I expect (and hope!) that might be a widespread sentiment.
Best Original Screenplay
Sean Baker, Anora
Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold, The Brutalist
Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain
Moritz Binder and Tim Fehlbaum, September 5
Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
Will Win: Sean Baker
Could Win: Jesse Eisenberg
Should Win: Jesse Eisenberg
Anything BUT: Moritz Binder and Tim Fehlbaum
Snubbed: Gabriel Sherman, The Apprentice
Most prognosticators see this award, the highest honor for a screenwriter, as a two-horse race between Best Picture frontrunner Anora and A Real Pain, written and direct by and starring Jesse Eisenberg. It stands to reason that Baker will win this one if Anora is poised for the big night many think it might be. But, wild and enjoyable ride as that movie is, I would love to see this go to A Real Pain, especially if Baker ultimately gets to take home Best Director and Best Picture later in the night. A Real Pain was one of my favorite films from last year, a wonderfully sharp, hilarious and deeply moving story about two relatives reconnecting in a journey of heritage discovery.
Best Adapted Screenplay
James Mangold and Jay Cocks, A Complete Unknown
Peter Straughan, Conclave
Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes, Nickel Boys
Greg Kwedar and Clint Bentley, Sing Sing
Will Win: Peter Straughan
Could Win: James Mangold and Jay Cocks
Should Win: RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes
Anything BUT: Jacques Audiard
Snubbed: Dana Fox and Winnie Holzman, Wicked
Where the original screenplay race appears to be an actual open-ended contest, the adapted screenplay race is widely believed to be locked in for Straughan's adaptation of the novel Conclave. I loved Conclave-- quite possibly my favorite of the Best Picture nominees --so I won't complain about any awards it wins on the night, but this is one I could live with going elsewhere. I still haven't seen Sing Sing, but have heard it's phenomenal and would deserve this award, and I know for a fact that Ross and Barnes' brilliant and unique adaptation of Nickel Boys would as well. Yet another category that's strong across the board except for the laughable inclusion of Emilia Pérez. Instead of that hot mess, this would have been a great space for the Academy to recognize one or both of the biggest movie sensations of the year. Denis Villenueve and Jon Spaihts' adaptation of Dune, a novel once believed to be too complex to adapt into a movie, continues to impress. But equally as impressive was Dana Fox and Winnie Holzman's film adaptation of the stage musical Wicked, bringing Broadway brilliance to the silver screen at a level very few have been able to do.
Best Supporting Actor
Yura Borisov, Anora
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
Will Win: Kieran Culkin
Could Win: Edward Norton
Should Win: Jeremy Strong
Anything BUT: Guy Pearce
Snubbed: Clarence "Divine Eye" Maclin, Sing Sing
In one of the more competitive years for acting races at the Oscars, this is the one category that seems, at least, to be a slam dunk: Kieran Culkin has basically swept through the awards circuit in this award. If there is to be a stunner, it's likely to be one of Edward Norton or Guy Pearce, two longtime industry vets who also received near-universal acclaim for their performances. And an upset isn't totally out of the question- people familiar with Culkin's prior work might argue that he's basically just "playing himself ." Such an assertion isn't unfair, but I do think people are undervaluing his unique ability to tap into the very obnoxious-but-lovable, wounded-yet-considerate, bombastoc-but-depressed energy that Jesse Eisenberg wrote for this character. (Much as I loved Kieran's performance, though, if I were honestly assessing the best of the nominated performances here, my pick would be his TV brother from Succession Jeremy Strong, who taps into such depraved ambition in his portrayal of Roy Cohn, mentor to one Donald Trump.)
Best Supporting Actress
Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown
Ariana Grande, Wicked
Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
Will Win: Zoe Saldaña
Could Win: Isabella Rossellini
Should Win: Monica Barbaro
Anything BUT: Zoe Saldaña
Snubbed: Margaret Qualley, The Substance
Zoe Saldaña has had a run through awards season that almost mirrors Kieran Culkin's, and as such, enters tonight as the clear favorite, even as her movie's standing in public perception wobbles.. I still expect her to win tonight, in an unfortunate act of deference to the top-to-bottom flawed Emilia Pérez, but this is sneakily more of an open-ended contest than Supporting Actor is. Ariana Grande's and Felicity Jones's awards hype never really took off for whatever reason, but both have been heralded as award-worthy from the start, and could have enough latent support to pull a surprise. And the real spoiler potential here belongs to Isabella Rossellini, a beloved actress from Hollywood royalty who is yet to claim her first Oscar. The only nominee I actually feel strongly about here in a positive way, though, is the one that unfortunately I think has no shot at winning: Monica Barbaro was magnificent as Joan Baez in A Complete Unknown. Baez's famously gorgeous vocals proved not to be too strong for Barbaro to emulate, and her character's unrelenting foil to Bob Dylan was the most effective vehicle for the protagonist's character development.
Best Actor
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
Will Win: Adrien Brody
Could Win: Timothée Chalamet
Should Win: Adrien Brody
Anything BUT: Sebastian Stan (if for no reason other than the Trump discourse it would incite)
Snubbed: Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain
Since the release of The Brutalist, this Academy Award for Best Actor has had Adrien Brody's name all over it, and most of awards season has played out exactly that way. But beware young Timothée Chalamet. The boy would be king (applicable to most of his roles) has, in his third Best Actor nomination already. embarked on an awards campaign the likes of which we have never seen. When Timmy finally popped up with his first major win in the awards circuit for Best Actor at the SAG Awards last week, and immediately delivered an eye-opening acceptance speech about his pursuit of greatness, rumbles began that his big Oscar moment could be coming. I still think the sheer gravitas of Brody's performance will win him the day, but the undeniable star power and 'first win' appeal of Chalamet can't be denied. As for my rooting interests, I'm in the bizarre position of being least interested in seeing win the nominee I actually think was best. I'm yet to see Sing Sing, but Colman Domingo is a marvelous actor who is long overdue for an award. I have seen-- and love --Conclave, and feel the same way as Ralph Fiennes. Timothée and Sebastian Stan both did a tremendous job in the unenviable challenge of portraying widely known, larger-than-life figures. But if I'm being honest with myself and everyone else, in a meritocracy this award would go to Brody, who plumbs the depths of such madness and sadness in The Brutalist that you lose sight of the fact that Laszlo Tóth is a fictional person.
Best Actress
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez
Mikey Madison, Anora
Demi Moore, The Substance
Fernanda Torres, I'm Still Here
Will Win: Demi Moore
Could Win: Mikey Madison
Should Win: Fernanda Torres
Anything BUT: Karla Sofia Gascón
Snubbed: Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun
We have been blessed with very competitive lead actress races for several years in a row now, but more often than not, it's a 'this or that' contest: Emma Stone vs. Lily Gladstone last year, Michelle Yeoh vs. Cate Blanchett in 2023, Jessica Chastain vs. Nicole Kidman the year before that, etc. This year, however, feels like a throwback to the COVID Oscar year, where every single nominee has spent time as the perceived favorite, and coming into the ceremony, no less than 3 of them feel like viable picks to win. Karla Sofia Gascón's slim chances at making history as the first trans winner of this award have mercifully been nuked by the reveal of her history of shockingly offensive public comments, and much like her co-star Grande, Cynthia Erivo's early awards frontrunner buzz has, for one reason or another, not materialized into any sort of legitimate chance tonight. Demi Moore has won more often than her peers, and enters as the slight favorite, thanks in no small part to the underdog appeal, both of an industry vet getting her first award and of The Substance itself. However, young Mikey Madison has had the buzz from the start, and added wins at the BAFTAs and Independent Spirit Awards to her credentials. If Anora is to win Best Picture, it seems likely that wave would bring its star to a win as well. And keep an eye out for Fernanda Torres, who picked up the Golden Globe in the Drama category, and has the same "beloved international actress from Hollywood royalty" angel as Rossellini in the supporting category, coupled with a more prominent helming of her film. I'll play the odds here, and would be happy for a Madison spoiler (she's truly terrific) but man, I would love for the Torres upset to come to fruition. She's remarkable in her measured and resolved, but increasingly aching performance as the wife of the kidnapped Rubens Paiva.
Best Director
Sean Baker, Anora
Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
James Mangold, A Complete Unknown
Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
Coraline Fargeat, The Substance
Will Win: Sean Baker
Could Win: Brady Corbet
Should Win: Brady Corbet
Anything BUT: Jacques Audiard
Snubbed: Denis Villenueve, Dune: Part Two
I was generally pretty happy with the major awards this year-- truth be told, it just wasn't deep enough of a year in cinema for me to be too worked up over any snub. And the fact that all five nominees here are first-time nominees is a nice blurb. But the inclusion of Mangold (Complete Unknown is good! but not impressive) and Fargeat (The Substance is original! But over the top and not good) in the Best Director field seemed silly, and the inclusion of Audiard is downright offensive. That sentiment increases exponentially when you realize Denis Villenueve was inexplicably left out for the second time in the Dune series, despite incredibly turning a dense, convoluted sci-fi novel into some of the biggest movie magic of the year. The good news is, the only two nominees that might win tonight are the two that would be deserving winners. There's a chance the Academy might offer this to Corbet as consolation for his longtime Best Picture favorite losing steam in that race down the stretch, a la Jane Campion for Power of the Dog in 2022. It would be a deserving win if it does happen that way; The Brutalist was by far the biggest, grandest swing of any of these nominees, and even if it doesn't land for you emotionally, it's a work of art that feels like it belongs on a level of its own. But, even if you don't think Anora is poised for quite as big a night as many seem to think it is, all the writing on the wall of late has suggested that this is Baker's award to lose.
Best Picture
Anora
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
I'm Still Here
Nickel Boys
The Substance
Wicked
Will Win: Conclave
Could Win: Anora
Should Win: Conclave
Anything BUT: Emilia Pérez
Snubbed: A Real Pain
I've been teasing this since the start of previewing every Best Picture nominee 10 days ago, and I referenced it at the top of this piece: this Best Picture race is the most wide-open it has felt in some time, certainly since the turn of the decade. Even though not every year is the slow coronation that the last couple have been, with Oppenheimer and Everything Everywhere All At Once, the drama and/or upsets we have gotten have tended to be in the context of only really having two viable winners. The last race that felt like this one was 9 years ago, where various nominees had almost evenly split their wins across the awards circuit, and even some of those that had gone winless had some real star power behind them. There are some direct parallels, too: Dune: Part Two is the Mad Max: Fury Road and Wicked is The Martian. The well-reviewed two biggest box office smashes of this nominee field-- one a stunning visual sci-fi spectacle, the other a successful adaptation of a beloved story with some mega-watt star power --can't be considered out of the race until it's over. The Brutalist is 2025's The Revenant: the gorgeously shot, gritty epic that stole headlines early, but never won as much as it was expected to in the circuit. Anora is The Big Short of this contest, the movie that tells a difficult story in a wildly entertaining and engaging way, and picks up late momentum with crucial wins at the Guild awards. Does that mean Conclave, the third prong of the trident of favorites, is this year's Spotlight? The simple, but well-made and brilliantly-acted movie involving the Catholic Church that is universally esteemed enough to surprisingly pop up with the Best Picture win on Oscar night? In recent memory, when there's been a sort of question at the top like there is this year, I have played it safe and opted for the conventional betting favorite, instead of picking the late-breaking spoiler, like CODA over The Power of the Dog, Parasite over 1917, or Green Book over Roma. I risk setting myself up for disappointment by not doing the same this time around, as my personal favorite happens to be the late-breaking spoiler, but in the chance that it happens that way again, I don't wanna miss out on my heart pick for a head pick.
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