The March Mad and the March Mundane: The Wildest and Most Stale Final Fours of the 21st Century

Back in 2018, the last time the Final Four was in San Antonio, I published pieces ranking both the wildest and the LEAST wild Final Fours of the 2000s. (Why cut off at 2000? Because I'm lazy, that's why.)

With the Final Four returning to Alamo City this year, and with a national semifinals that features the tournament's top 4 seeds for just the second time in history, it got me thinking that those 7-year old lists may need somewhat of a refresh. After all, since the pandemic alone, we have seen two different 11-seeds in the Final Four, one of them coming within a buzzer beater of playing for a national championship, a 9-seed also coming within a buzzer beater of a natty, an 8-seed actually playing in a natty, the largest national championship 2nd-half comeback in history, a Final Four with zero Top 3 seeds involved for the first time ever, and this year's all 1-seed affair.

With that in mind, fresh off of Florida's completely bonkers national championship escape over Houston, here's a partially objective, partially subjective look at some of the most predictable and some of the most unexpected Final Four weekends of the 21st century. As you will see below, every Final Four in this time period has been assessed through a completely unassailable, thoughtful formula of calculating the average seed of the teams involved + my personal "madness" rating for how the 3 games progressed. (Participating teams are listed in seed order for each entry; the two championship teams will have asterisks*, and the champion will also be italicized.)

To finish on a good note, we're going to start with the boring. Here were the 5 most mundane Marches:

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(Dis)Honorable Mentions:

• 2001 (Shane Battier/Jason Williams' Duke and their wild rally over 1-seed Maryland, then win over Gilbert Arenas's Arizona in the title)

• 2002 (Juan Dixon's Maryland over fellow 1-seeds Kansas in the Final Four, blowout of "Cinderellas" 5-seed Indiana in the title)

5. 2012

(1) Kentucky*

(2) Kansas*

(2) Ohio State

(4) Louisville

Mean Seed: 2

Median Seed: 2

Game Chaos/Unpredictability Rating (0 to 5): 1

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MARCH MADNESS SCORE: 5.0

2012, also known as the year in which Creighton ruined North Carolina's title run, was a wild tournament. Two different 15-seeds beat 2 seeds! A 13-seed took a 1-seed to overtime in the Sweet 16! However, by the time we reached the Final Four, the tournament was starting to normalize, and the higher seeds won out, with the highest overall seed in the bracket taking top honors. To make matters worse, though the games were both competitive and entertaining, each game on Final Four weekend was a rematch from the regular season. And each team that won in the regular season won yet again (Kentucky over Louisville, Kansas over Ohio State, Kentucky over Kansas).

4. 2025

(1) Auburn

(1) Duke

(1) Houston*

(1) Florida*

Mean Seed: 1

Median Seed: 1

Game Chaos/Unpredictability Rating (0 to 5): 3

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MARCH MADNESS SCORE: 5.0

This may be a hot take, and it certainly might be recency bias in action, but 2025 has to be a contender for one of the most boring tournaments of the 64/68-team era. I suppose it was only fair that the pendulum swung back this year after a fairly insane stretch of tournaments in the 6-7 years prior. But still....minimal upsets, minimal exciting games, few buzzer beaters or even compelling storylines. And thus it felt perfectly on the nose that the final weekend should come down to the four top seeds for the first time in 17 years, and only the second time ever. But the reason such a stale tournament (and such a top-heavy Final Four) only ranks as the 4th 'dullest' here is that, when the lights shone brightest, it finally delivered. The nature of three '1-seed v 1-seed' games is that you can't really count any result as an upset. Still, the underdog won each of the semifinals, with Florida dueling SEC foes and top-seeded Auburn in a classic, and Houston embarking on a crazy last-minute rally to stun AP # 1 and betting-odd favorites Duke. Then, in last night's championship, a game truly unlike any other I've seen: two great teams playing an unbelievably tight, sloppy, boneheaded game of basketball, their unquestioned desire to win belied by their nonstop questionable decisions on the court, culminating in one of the most surreal finishes to a title game ever.

3. 2009

(1) North Carolina*

(1) Connecticut

(2) Michigan State*

(3) Villanova

Mean Seed: 2

Median Seed: 1/2

Game Chaos/Unpredictability Rating (0 to 5): 1

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MARCH MADNESS SCORE: 4.5

Though my little Tar Heel heart has no problem fondly recalling the 2009 Final Four, I imagine it wasn't nearly as pleasant for objective fans of college basketball. Neither Final Four game was competitive down the stretch, and Michigan State's defeat over top-seeded Connecticut couldn't even register as an upset, given that UConn was the weakest 1-seed, and the game was in Detroit, for Pete's sake. Then, the Championship: UNC played Michigan State in the regular season (in Ford Field, ironically) that year and won by 35-- the championship wasn't much closer, as the 2009 Final Four came to an all-too-predictable finish.

2. 2008

(1) North Carolina

(1) Memphis*

(1) UCLA

(1) Kansas*

Mean Seed: 1

Median Seed: 1

Game Chaos/Unpredictability Rating (0 to 5): 2

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MARCH MADNESS SCORE: 4.0

Ranking 2008 at the #2 spot comes with two caveats: first off, this was the first (and, until this year, still only) Final Four to feature all #1 seeds, hence its renown. "So how does being the first Final Four to have all #1 seeds not earn it the top spot?!?", you squawk. Well, that ties in to my second caveat: that, as mentioned above, a Final Four goes chalk is not always a bad thing, as it can provide some terrific basketball. It's hard to call any result an 'upset' in a weekend oozing with so much talent, but the results lent a little sliver of madness. Kansas was certainly the least likely of the 1-seeds to win it all, boasting the worst record and least NBA talent of the 4 (which is a bit like saying Ringo was the least impressive Beatle; technically true, but most would still consider that a compliment). The Jayhawks did so via a stunning (and for me, traumatic) rout of #1 overall North Carolina, then a title win over Memphis in one of the best championship games ever played.

1. 2007

(1) Florida*

(1) Ohio State

(2) UCLA

(2) Georgetown

Mean Seed: 1/2

Median Seed: 1/2

Game Chaos/Unpredictability Rating (0 to 5): 0

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MARCH MADNESS SCORE: 3.0

The 2007 Final Four completely nullifies my last caveat. This tournament was one of the most chalk tournaments ever, and resulted in the most dreadfully boring Final Four ever. The only team in the Elite Eight that wasn't a 1- or 2-seed was Pac-10 champions Oregon, who was....a 3-seed. Though two different 2 seeds "upset" the top seeds, the Final Four still boasted a top-heavy slate, with little to show for it. Both 1-seeds absolutely controlled proceedings in the semifinals, and then #1 overall seed Florida waltzed to their 2nd-straight title by beating Ohio State for the second time that season. YAWN. Years like the stretch from '07 -'09 remind us to not take teams like Loyola-Chicago for granted! The joy, excitement, and unexpectedness they bring isn't a given.

And now, for an updated look at the maddest Final Fours:

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Honorable Mentions:

• 2013 (Top overall seed Louisville holds off almighty challenges from 9-seed Wichita State and 4-seed Michigan)

• 2022 ("Love... top of the keeeeyyyy... ohhhh!!!")

5. 2006

(2) UCLA*

(3) Florida*

(4) LSU

(11) George Mason

Mean Seed: 5

Median Seed: 3/4

Game Chaos/Unpredictability Rating (0 to 5): 1

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MARCH MADNESS SCORE: 9.5

At the time, this was considered the most unexpected Final Four in history. After all, it was only the 2nd instance ever (and the first in 25 years) that a #1 seed hadn't qualified, and to compound that, George Mason was only the 2nd double-digit seed ever to make it to the final weekend. Alas, the proceedings themselves made such a wild potential end instead with a fizzle; though Florida did secure a mild upset over 2-seed UCLA in the Championship (capping off a roller-coaster of a season), none of the 3 games were competitive affairs in the least. Still, that didn't stop LSU from being one of the best feel-good stories of the tournament, and George Mason from being forever synonymous with "Cinderella."

4. 2000

(1) Michigan State*

(5) Florida*

(8) Wisconsin

(8) North Carolina

Mean Seed: 4/5

Median Seed: 6/7

Game Chaos/Unpredictability Rating (0 to 5): 0

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MARCH MADNESS SCORE: 11.0

It may surprise you, but there was a time, within the 2000s, that Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Florida making the Final Four was considered stunning. The year was 2000, and the Tar Heels had one of their weaker teams in recent memory, only an 8-seed. Florida was a plucky 5-seed, but not expected to make a serious run, certainly not being in big, bad Duke's bracket. And then there was 8-seeded Wisconsin, who had never reached a Final Four since World War II, grinding their way to the final weekend. It was an absolute hodgepodge of mediocre teams, and the biggest beneficiary? Overall #1 seed Michigan State, who strolled through the weak field to claim their first and only title under Tom Izzo.

3. 2023

(4) Connecticut*

(5) San Diego State*

(5) Miami

(9) Florida Atlantic

Mean Seed: 6

Median Seed: 5

Game Chaos/Unpredictability Rating (0 to 5): 1.5

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MARCH MADNESS SCORE: 12.5

The 2023 tournament as a whole set a bar for true, unadulterated March Madness that is unlikely to be topped. For just the second time in history, a 16-seed toppled a 1 as minnows Fairleigh-Dickinson stunned national player of the year Zach Edey and Purdue. For a shocking THIRD CONSECUTIVE YEAR, a 15-seed made the Sweet 16. And the cherry on top, not a single 1-seed even so much as made the Elite 8. The result, almost fittingly, was the above Final Four, the first-ever of its kind without a single Top 3 seed, and three of the four making their first foray into the final weekend in program history. Still, heading into the final weekend, there was no question who the runaway favorite was: UConn, the highest-seeded of the bunch, and the only school involved with any Final Four experience, and it played out that way on the court, with the Huskies wining their Final Four and Championship games by an average of 15 points. The final weekend wasn't a total bust, though; we did get San Diego State's stunning late rally + buzzer beater to off underdogs Florida Atlantic.

2. 2011

(3) Connecticut*

(4) Kentucky

(8) Butler*

(11) Virginia Commonwealth

Mean Seed: 6/7

Median Seed: 6

Game Chaos/Unpredictability Rating (0 to 5): 1

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MARCH MADNESS SCORE: 13.5

In terms of strictly the field, this was the wildest Final Four of all time, and it's not even close. 2011 remains the only Final Four without a single Top 2 seed. Connecticut, a 9-loss team that just two weeks prior had finished the season as the 9-seed in the Big East, became the de facto favorite. Butler made their second consecutive stunning tournament run, this time as an 8-seed. A good-not-great Kentucky team got to the promised land for the first time in the 2000s by beating the #1 overall team Ohio State and probably the best 2-seed, too, in North Carolina. And of course, a team named Virginia Commonwealth made the Final Four as an 11 seed-- and this wasn't a George Mason or Loyola-Chicago situation, wherein a sneaky good mid-major team that probably should have been a Top 8 seed at least makes a deep run. No, VCU wasn't even good. They finished 4th in the Atlantic 10, and incurred outrage at even being included as an at-large bid in the tournament. Yet, they caught fire at the right time.

What keeps this tale of unlikely contenders out of the top spot was the way the Final Four actually played out, which is to say, as predictably as possible. I'm not sure what anyone could have expected from a Final Four field such as this, but it reverted to the mean, whatever the mean was at that point. The 8-seed beat the 11-seed in a close game, the 3 beat the 4 in a close game, and then the 3-seed dominated the Championship over the 8-seed in a cruelly boring game. The second best thing to come out of this year was Kemba Walker officially supplanting "Kobe!" as the name to call out while jacking up jumpshots.

1. 2014

(1) Florida

(2) Wisconsin

(7) Connecticut*

(8) Kentucky*

Mean Seed: 4/5

Median Seed: 4/5

Game Chaos/Unpredictability Rating (0 to 5): 5

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MARCH MADNESS SCORE: 14.0

At first glance, a weekend featuring Florida, Kentucky, Connecticut and Wisconsin seems like a convention of blue-blood powerhouse programs. So how on Earth could this be the craziest Final Four ever? Take a closer look at Connecticut. Here was a 7-seed who, 2 weeks prior, had lost their last game of the season by 33 points, and had a young coach still evidently trying to figure things out in his maiden year. Take a closer look at Kentucky. Here was an 8-seed that was almost entirely run by Freshmen, and had played like that the whole year: talented, energetic, but erratic. It took a late uptick in quality down the stretch for Kentucky to avoid a 2nd-consecutive berth in the NIT.

Yet, here's the thing: Connecticut and Kentucky didn't just make the Final Four. Connecticut and Kentucky won.

That wasn't supposed to happen. As you've seen in previous entries, no matter how much madness occurs before the ultimate weekend, the Final Four is when things are supposed to normalize. The cream of the remaining 4 rises to the top. The stage was set for a Florida-Wisconsin championship, and the Gators, the #1 overall seed in the tournament, would surely fully redeem themselves for 3 straight years of faltering in the Elite 8 and reassert themselves atop the College Basketball world.

But the Huskies' and Wildcats' momentum just, inexplicably, kept going. Florida and Wisconsin seemed every bit as shellshocked as all the fans at home were. And then, the Championship somehow got even weirder! Because, despite being the lower seed, Kentucky was now the favorite!

And how could they not be? All that talent, FINALLY playing up to its potential, and with 4 consecutive games of Aaron Harrison's absurd game-sealing 3-pointers, there was an undeniable sense of "Team Of Destiny" about them. But in the Championship, that clutch moment never came, as Connecticut jumped all over Kentucky early on and never looked back, leading nearly the whole way in what was a surprisingly easy ride to the top of the podium.

2014 remains the benchmark for pure March Madness in the Final Four, and that Connecticut team remains the most delightfully inexplicable champion in modern history.