The Nominees: Best New Artist
Chappell Roan was one of the biggest breakout sensations in 2024...but most of the year's biggest stories in music involved new artists. Can Chappellmania beat out an extremely loaded Best New Artist field?
You’d be forgiven if you didn't know that the Grammys were happening just two weeks from today. After all, we're in the thick of awards season for movies and TV, and with the Golden Globes taking place two weeks ago, the Oscar nomination announcement this week, and announcements for just about every other major awards shows in between, it's easy to forget music has their big show amidst this stretch as well! Plus, if you're uber-immersed in capital c "Culture" the way I am, you know we've also got the Super Bowl fast approaching, the college football championship tomorrow night, the breathlessly-awaited new season of Severance arriving, and oh yeah, a new (old) president tomorrow. But it’s true; we are fast approaching “Music’s biggest night,” as the Grammys like to bill themselves, and as such, we will take the next couple weeks to do an overview of the biggest awards of the night, culminating in a general predictions piece on the day of the ceremony. First one up: Best New Artist!
A reminder, first of all, that while for many decades, each of the General Awards had fields of 5 nominees, in recent years, we saw those fields expanded to 8, and then to 10, but in the wake of fairly negative reaction to the increased growth, announced last year they were returning to 8 for the foreseeable future.
Best New Artist is one of the most fascinating awards of the night, in part because of its track record, in part because of its criteria. The award has featured many famous winners, such as The Beatles, Crosby Stills & Nash, Cyndi Lauper, Mariah Carey, Alicia Keys, Maroon 5, Adele, Chance the Rapper, Dua Lipa, Billie Eilish, and Olivia Rodrigo. It also has featured some major headscratchers, such as Macklemore beating the likes of Kendrick Lamar and Kacey Musgraves, Esperanza Spalding winning over a field that included Drake and Justin Bieber, Alessia Cara over SZA, and Meghan Trainor...well, just Meghan Trainor. Perhaps relatedly to the second point, there even is a "Best New Artist curse" that is often discussed, only half-jokingly, about the surprisingly common trend of breakout artists who win the award immediately fading back from the public view, never to really make much of an impact on the music scene again. Notably, however, that curse seems to have been broken in recent years. It somewhat remains to be seen how things will pan out for 2023's shock winner, Samara Joy, and the surprise reigning winner Victoria Monét, but four recent winners of the award are: Dua Lipa, Billie Eilish, Megan Thee Stallion, and Olivia Rodrigo. I'd say those women have done alright for themselves, no?
The award for Best New Artist also generates buzz just about every year because it isn't ever really clear to anyone who isn't in the Recording Academy just what a new artist is. The official guidelines for the award have changed numerous times over the years, but one thing that has stayed consistent, at least in my lifetime, is that there is no real consistency. You can get a selection of nominees some years-- such as this year! --that have a range of 1 album to 4+ albums. The latest official guidelines for the award, according to the Academy, are as follows: "For a new artist who releases, during the Eligibility Year, the first recording which establishes the public identity of that artist." So uh, yeah. Clear as mud? Cool.
All that being said, here are this year's nominees, in order from least to most likely to win, according to odds from GoldDerby.com.
Khruangbin
Odds: 16-1
Active Since: 2011
Most Likely Nominated For: Their album A La Sala
Biggest Song: "Texas Sun" (with Leon Bridges)
It seems these days that just about every year, there's a nominee that causes people to say "why are THEY nominated, in the year of our lord (x)???" This year, that nominee is Khruangbin. It's not that people don't like Khruangbin; the trio from Houston has earned quite a devoted fanbase, in fact. It's more the fact that the "new artist" moniker feels awfully ironic, considering they have been around since Obama's first term. This is where I make my case that this particular Grammy should be renamed to best "Breakthrough" Artist: the experimental, psych rock group may have formed in 2011 and released their first full-length album in 2015, and have cultivated a loyal fanbase of musicheads in their years in the industry, but it was their recent collaborations with Leon Bridges, and a new album and successful ensuing tour that pushed that musichead appreciation into more of the mainstream in 2024. With how loaded this category is this year, including multiple Album of the Year nominees, it's not a shock they're a longshot. And yet, don't underestimate that longevity in the music world + the groundswell of support they've built in that time; one could argue that was the thing that pushed last year's winner Victoria Monét to the top.
Teddy Swims
Odds: 15-1
Active Since: 2019
Most Likely Nominated For: His album I've Tried Everything But Therapy and lead single "Lose Control"
Biggest Song: "Lose Control"
One of last year's Best New Artist nominees, Jelly Roll, was a longshot who didn't win but went on to have a pretty massive 2024. Well, Jelly Roll's profile feels eerily similar to 2025 nominee Teddy Swims: a Southern boy with powerful, raspy vocals, who got his start on underground rap, before transitioning to more of a country and soul-infused pop sound. His debut full-length album I've Tried Everything But Therapy came in late 2023, and while it didn't land any Grammy nominations itself, it did help put him in the public conscience, charting in the Billboard Top 20 and spawning # 1 hit single "Lose Control." Is one mega hit enough to launch a Best New Artist win? Likely not, especially in a race as hotly contested as this is. But his unique, multi-genre appeal does give him a lane that nobody else in this nominee field can claim.
Benson Boone
Odds: 14-1
Active Since: 2022
Most Likely Nominated For: His hit single "Beautiful Things"
Biggest Song: "Beautiful Things"
You may not think you know Benson Boone, but if you listen to the radio, or just are on Tiktok (or perhaps have kids on TikTok), I can almost guarantee you've heard his omnipresent debut single "Beautiful Things." Boone actually got his 'start' on American Idol some 4 years ago, where celebrity judge Katy Perry declared he was "going to be a star." From there, he had already found a decent bit of success on TikTok before "Beautiful Things" took off right around this time last year. That ubiquitous single led to a successful debut album release, and multiple awards show and music festival appearances, too, where his impressive performances consistently turned heads. What I said about Teddy Swims applies here, too: simply having one smash hit will likely not be enough to carry him to a win over some heavy hitters, but it does give him something that at least half the field can not claim, and his youth appeal might have outsized influence with a voting body that's increasingly trying to be more relevant to the music of today,
RAYE
Odds: 13-1
Active Since: 2014
Most Likely Nominated For: Her singles "Genesis" and "Oscar Winning Tears"
Biggest Song: "Escapism"
Perhaps no 2025 nominee better matches 2024 winner Victoria Monét's profile than RAYE. The English singer has been in the game for a decade-plus, but has largely plied her trade as a songwriter and background vocalist, for the likes of some serious names: Beyoncé. John Legend. Charli XCX. In fact, in an interesting crossover with Monét, she was a frequent collaborator of British girl group Little Mix. In 2023, though, she finally got her own moment to shine, releasing debut album My 21st Century Blues, which was met with much critical acclaim and also launched a successful and well-received worldwide tour. Her hype has continued in the year since, with every ensuing single finding more and more success. She's up against some much bigger names right this moment at least, hence the longer odds, but don't be shocked if her name is called. She's got current appeal and years of goodwill built up from the industry...that might just prove to be the ideal recipe again.
Doechii
Odds: 12-1
Active Since: 2019
Most Likely Nominated For: Her album Alligator Bites Never Heal
Biggest Song: "What It Is (Block Boy)"
If, like me, you only recently heard about Doechii in late 2024 and suddenly couldn't STOP hearing about her, you might understand the cynical response from many that she's "an industry plant." Look just a little bit more closely into Doechii's career, though, and you'll see this is not some grand industry maneuver, just some belated hype for the summer release of her terrific mixtape, and some love form her peers that know she's a unique talent that's been putting in the work. Born Jaylah Hickmon, the Tampa-born artist has proven equally proficient as a rapper, singer, and now, performer. After dropping her first mixtape shortly before the pandemic, she frequnetly toured and collaborated with labelmates SZA, Isaiah Rashad, and Tyler, the Creator, and actually broke through for the first time with sleeper hit "What It Is (Block Boy)" last year. But it was the August release of Alligator Bites Never Heal that started the process of launching Doechii into the public eye; the mixtape was incredibly well-received (earning a Best Rap Album nomination at these Grammys), and the artistry involved in both the record itself, as well as her ensuing live performances, and high-profile appearances with Tyler, the Creator and Katy Perry, earned rave reviews. It's possible the wave of hype might be coming a little too late in the voting stages for Doechii to claim this award, and/or just may not be enough to surpass that of some of the year's biggest pop stars, but there's no nominee in this field that's peaking more in the public eye heading into 2025.
Shaboozey
Odds: 21-2
Active Since: 2017
Likely Nominated For: His single "Tipsy (A Bar Song)" as well as his appearances on COWBOY CARTER
Biggest Song: "Tipsy (A Bar Song)"
Shaboozey is one of the best stories in music this year, and I'm not just saying that because he's a DC-area artist. The singer, who combines combines (and sounds equally adept at) Country, Hip-Hop and Southern Rock in his songs, released his first single over a decade ago, and has been putting the work in, trying to break into the rigid and conservative Country industry since. Early in 2024, he caught his big break, when representatives for Beyoncé happened to hear his not-yet-released single "Tipsy (A Bar Song)" and recommended him to work with Queen B on her forthcoming Country album COWBOY CARTER. As was the case with a number of the guest features on that album, he enjoyed a nice post-release popularity boost thanks to the BeyHive, and expertly rode that wave by dropping "Tipsy" soon afterward. The unlikely sensation became the biggest song of the year, topping year-end charts and breaking Lil Nas X's "Old Town Road"'s record for consecutive weeks at # 1 on the charts. It is largely on that song alone that he finds himself among the nominees for this award, and as we've discussed, that alone does not the strongest case make. But no other nominees also feature prominently on a different artist's Album of the Year nominee, nor do they present the unique profile Shaboozey offers as a groundbreaking Black country artist, and for those reasons, you have to imagine he's a compelling dark horse pick for this award.
Sabrina Carpenter
Odds: 15-2
Active Since: 2015
Most Likely Nominated For: Her hit singles "Espresso" and "Please Please Please"
Biggest Song: "Espresso"
Sabrina Carpenter occupies a weird place among Best New Artist nominees: she's both a seasoned veteran that has been putting in the work for nearly a decade, AND a sudden smash success that is having a huge moment. Carpenter was a child star that began her appearances on the Disney Channel about a decade ago, before going on to star in Girl Meets World. She released her debut album as a solo artist in 2015, and since then has slowly built up some fans and recognition, working her way into the pop charts on occasion. But it wasn't until late spring 2024 when it all changed for Sabrina, as the peppy single "Espresso" became an uber smash hit, the de facto 'song of the summer' and eventually the most streamed song in the world 2024. On the heels of that song's popularity, clips from her tours went viral, and she dropped "Please Please Please, another smash that went # 1. Suddenly, she was a can't-miss star, dropping the album Short n' Sweet to critical acclaim, scoring yet another # 1 with "Taste," selling out arenas across the globe, and being tabbed for a Christmas special by Netflix. She's a certified star at this point, and while the number of big names in this category mean she's not a guarantee to win Best New Artist, the double-whammy of current star power and longstanding name recognition make her a very formidable force to do so.
Chappell Roan
Odds: 7-1
Active Since: 2017
Most Likely Nominated For: Her hit single "Good Luck, Babe!"
Biggest Song: "Good Luck, Babe!"
A common theme of this Best New Artist field is "from nowhere to everywhere," which feels sort of fitting for the nature of the award! But no single nominee better epitomizes that than the odds-on favorite to win the award, Chappell Roan. When Roan released her debut album The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess in September 2023, she was a little-known singer who had struggled to gain traction as an artist in her six year or so of recording. and had been ingloriously dropped by her label in 2020, and momentarily 'backburnered' by her new producer and frequent collaborator Dan Nigro in favor of labelmate Olivia Rodrigo. A successful promotional tour the year prior with local drag queens as supporting acts had earned her a certain level of 'gay fame,' and enough attention for the album to register on some of the more thorough music publications' "Best of 2023" lists. But it was in the early months of 2024 that the latent volcano of star potential exploded: Chappell's popularity grew as she toured with Rodrigo as the latter's opener, social media buzz caught on with her memorable Tiny Desk Concert performance, and when she released new single "Good Luck, Babe!" in April, the secret was out. That single went on to land in the Top 10 and make summer playlists everywhere, but more importantly, it caused just about everyone (myself included) who had NOT already heard about Chappell Roan to go back and catch up on what else this girl had done, at which point The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess got the belated recognition it deserved for being a pop album chock-full of bangers. Nearly a year after its release, it peaked at # 2 on Billboard, and many of its songs (some of them released as singles some 4 years prior) retroactively appeared on the charts. She was a mainstay on the music festival circuit, suddenly consistently performing to massive crowds, and the combination of her pure talent, unique stage presence and unapologetic public persona led to sensational amounts of fame in a short time. In any given year, someone like Chappell Roan would be an absolute lock to win Best New Artist. That she is only a narrow favorite and can't be penciled in as the surefire winner says a lot about the depth of this field.
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