2023 Grammy Predictions
Tonight, "music's biggest night" returns in the form of the 65th Grammys ceremony! At long last, it will be a return to "normalcy" at the Grammys, after two straight years of... un-normalcy. In both 2021 and 2022, different waves of COVID-19 made a major impact on proceedings, postponing the show until much later into the year than usual. First, it was ultimately held in a much-reduced, artists-present-only, outdoor format in L.A., and while last year saw the return of the live audience, it was still a smaller-than-usual capacity in Las Vegas instead. This year, the awards show will bring back Trevor Noah as host, the frontman each of the last two years, but will also head back to the City of Angels, in the Lakers' arena, where it was up until the pandemic. That last pre-COVID show, which saw Billie Eilish win just about every award under the sun, simultaneously feels like an eternity ago and yet I can scarcely believe three years have passed since then. Such is the affect the pandemic has had on our concept of the passage of time, I think, but enough waxing poetic: tonight is about the music!
Though these particular awards have often been besotted by criticisms of valuing commercial success over critically acclaimed music, (criticisms I find valid, for what it’s worth), the show remains the premier music awards out there. And, though they often evade glory, many wonderful and deserving artists and bands are typically nominees, and that is no different this year.
If you’re curious about the nominees for all the awards, not just the 15 I'm highlighting in this article, you can find them listed nicely here. But this is devoted to my best guess as to what will win. I’m not guaranteeing a high success rate because, let’s be honest, who knows what will win? Sometimes they give all the major awards to the big stars, like Taylor Swift and Billie Eilish. Sometimes they distribute the wealth all over, like in the last two awards shows. Other times, the big winners are total wildcards like Jon Batiste or Beck. In short: I have some idea, but really no idea, who and what will win. All I can do is try! Here goes:
GENRE
Best Music Video
All Too Well: The Short Film - Taylor Swift (Taylor Swift, director)
"As It Was" - Harry Styles (Tanu Muino, director)
“Easy On Me” - Adele (Xavier Dolan, director)
“The Heart Part 5" - Kendrick Lamar (Dave Free and Kendrick Lamar, co-directors)
“Woman” -Doja Cat (Child., director)
“Yet To Come” - BTS (Yong Seok Choi, director)
Will Win: All Too Well: The Short Film
Could Win: “The Heart Part 5"
Should Win: “Woman"
Anything BUT: “Yet To Come”
Snubbed: "Free" - Florence and the Machine (Autumn de Wilde, director)
From the time I started paying more attention to the Grammys to now, I've noticed a serious shift in this category the last two years, from a collection of more underground songs with impressive videos (nominations for Tierra Whack and Jamie Xx come to mind), to a nominee field filled with big stars that more closely resemble the Record of the Year field. For instance, this years, just as was in 2022, all nominees save for one, are up for Record and/or Song of the Year (and the one exception, BTS' "Yet To Come," is courtesy of one of the most popular musical acts in the world, and is probably the least impressive videos of all nominees). It's not a trend I'm a fan of, but I have to say, unlike last year's field, at least the videos in question are all very good. Adele, Kendrick Lamar, and Taylor Swift have all won the award before (for "Rolling In The Deep," "Bad Blood," and "HUMBLE.", respectively), and find themselves the frontrunners once again. Lamar's video for his promotional single was easily the most viral at the time, using deepfake technology to profoundly convey the song's message of differing perspectives on the treatment of Black men in society. It would be a welcome and deserving winner, as would Doja Cat's "Woman," whose choreography and costuming/set design is easily the most impressive acheivement of all candidates. But more than likely, the Academy will be chomping at the bit to recognize 'Taylor Swift as director' for her autobiographical short film. It was a very well-done video, and I want only good things Sadie Sink, so I'm okay with it if so.
The many faces of Kendrick Lamar face some big names in the running for Best Music Video, but the rapper would be a deserving repeat winner
Best Americana Album
Good To Be... - Keb' Mo'
In These Silent Days - Brandi Carlile
Just Like That... - Bonnie Raitt
Raise The Roof - Robert Plant & Alison Krauss
Things Happen That Way - Dr. John
Will Win: In These Silent Days
Could Win: Raise The Roof
Should Win: Just Like That...
Anything BUT: Raise the Roof
Snubbed: Palomino - First Aid Kit
This is not a category I tend to pay attention to, and I will be very surprised if the Grammys even decide to air it. But it's not every year a Grammy field for Best Americana Album, a category less than 15 years old, features a two-time former winner of the award, a former Album of the Year winner, and current nominees for Album, Record, and Song of the Year. Bonnie Raitt, the beloved Country legend, scored a surprise Song of the Year nod for the title track of her first album in a decade. The last time the duo of Robert Plant & Alison Krauss released an album, all the way back in 2008, it stunned the masses by winning Album of the Year over the likes of In Rainbows, Tha Carter 3, and Viva La Vida, a decision I still simmer about to this day (and which is why I don't want it winning this one... old grudges die hard). Fellow major award nominee Brandi Carlile (in the running for Album and Record of the Year) is the favorite here, and a former winner as well, in 2019. But interestingly enough, the only two-time winner in this category is the one that might be the least famous, blues musician Keb' Mo'. I have to imagine the Academy's love for Carlile and her place in the Album of the year ranks means that she brings home this award, but I'd be delighted to see a first-time win for Raitt, one of the godmothers of Americana.
Best Alternative Music Performance
"Certainty" - Big Thief
"Chaise Longue" - Wet Leg
"King" - Florence and the Machine
"Spitting Off the Edge of the World" - Yeah Yeah Yeahs feat. Perfume Genius
"There'd Better Be A Mirrorball" - Arctic Monkeys
Will Win: "Chaise Longue"
Could Win: "King"
Should Win: "Spitting Off the Edge of the World"
Anything BUT: "Certainty"
Snubbed: "It's Not Just Me, It's Everybody" - Weyes Blood
Typically, I reserve space to discuss Best Alternative Album, which tends to be one of the sneaky-good categories that doesn't make the televised broadcast. This year, however, in a fairly underwhelming year for that award, I'll instead focus on a stronger race for a brand-new award, Best Alternative Music Performance. British newbies Wet Leg, who are also up for Best Alternative Album, are likely the frontrunners for both, given the attention they'll already have from their Best New Artist nod. They face some stiff competition, though, from other indie Grammy darlings. It takes a lot for me to cheer against the likes of Florence and the Machine and Arctic Monkeys, but the track from the tag team of the Yeah Yeah Yeahs and Perfume Genius is gorgeous. On the other end, while I recognize Big Thief is a favorite for many indieheads, I've never been as into their music, and personally find "Certainty" the least interesting of the bunch, and would have preferred a stronger alternative song, like Weyes' Blood lead single off her latest album, to be in the running.
Best Melodic Rap Performance
"Beautiful" – DJ Khaled feat. Future and SZA
"Big Energy (Live)" – Latto
"Die Hard" – Kendrick Lamar feat. Amanda Reifer and Blxst
"First Class" – Jack Harlow
"Wait for U" – Future feat. Drake and TEMS
Will Win: "Big Energy (Live)"
Could Win: "Die Hard"
Should Win: "Wait for U"
Anything BUT: "First Class"
Snubbed: "Dreamin' of the Past" - Pusha T feat. Ye
The Rap nominees this year, more so than most other Genre categories, really lost the plot, with an embarrassing amount of emphasis on favoring the biggest over the best. This category epitomizes that; in no world should Jack Harlow's awful lead single from his awful album, or DJ Khaled, who somehow managed the impressive feat of making a song with both Future and SZA totally forgettable, be winning any awards. Fortunately, there are some good options here as well. I find it somewhat strange that the live version of Latto's smash hit is nominated instead of the radio version, but it's a banger regardless, as are Kendrick Lamar's and Future's singles. I hate to cheer for Drake to win in any capacity, but "Wait for U" is legitimately my favorite of the bunch; it's such a smooth, melancholy listen. I want Kendrick to win every award ever, and "Die Hard" is great, but given that it's on the weaker end of tracks off Mr. Morale and wasn't a big radio hit, I both am fine with him not winning this one and think it might be the one Rap award he doesn't walk away with tonight.
Breakout star Latto only landed a couple nominations on the night, but is a strong contender for both, including a star-studded Melodic Rap race
Best Rap Performance
"F.N.F. (Let's Go)" - Hitkidd and GloRilla
"God Did" - DJ Khaled feat. Rick Ross, Li'l Wayne, Jay-Z, John Legend and Fridayy
"The Heart Part 5" - Kendrick Lamar
"Pushin P" – Gunna and Future featuring Young Thug
"Vegas" – Doja Cat
Will Win: "The Heart Part 5"
Could Win: "God Did"
Should Win: "The Heart Part 5"
Anything BUT: "Vegas"
Snubbed: "Dance Now" - J.I.D. feat. Kenny Mason
This, too, is a pretty bizarre field, with a combination of a terrific but non-traditional lead single from one of the biggest rappers out there, two radio songs that were only big for about two weeks, a genre-specific hit from an underground up-and-comer, and Doja Cat's Elvis Presley-sampling song for the movie Elvis. While I appreciate the diversity of choice here, a couple nominees are fairly weak and the award could have been much better served by songs from much superior releases by Pusha T, Denzel Curry, Megan Thee Stallion, or J.I.D., whose Grammy snubs were particularly egregious. It does feature two surprise Song of the Year nominees, though, in Kendrick Lamar's "The Heart Part 5" and DJ Khaled's feature-heavy "God Did," and the former is also up for Record of the Year. Unless his "Heart Part 5" is poised to spring an upset in one or both major categories-- something I don't think is out of the question --and thus Rap voters want to spread the wealth a little bit, I have to imagine he's a heavy favorite here, and deservedly so. His standalone single was one of the most impressive songs of 2022, once again changing the game and setting new bars both musically and lyrically.
Best Rap Album
Come Home The Kids Miss You – Jack Harlow
God Did - DJ Khaled
I Never Liked You – Future
It's Almost Dry – Pusha T
Mr. Morale and the Big Steppers – Kendrick Lamar
Will Win: Mr. Morale and the Big Steppers
Could Win: Come Home The Kids Miss You
Should Win: Mr. Morale and the Big Steppers
Anything BUT: Come Home The Kids Miss You
Snubbed: The Forever Story - J.I.D.
In a Grammys year that is surprisingly, and refreshingly, short on outrageous snubs, I can't say I'm all too surprised that perhaps the most egregious of all comes in the Rap field, which as we've already established, lost its damn mind this year. How J.I.D.'s Forever Story went completely nomination-less after being near-universally hailed as the Rap release of the year, is beyond me, and to include Jack Harlow's and DJ Khaled's garbage over him, not to mention Megan Thee Stallion, Vince Staples, Denzel Curry and more, is offensive. It's not like the Grammys were unfamiliar with the Atlanta rapper, either; he was a nominee for Best Rap Song and Album just a couple years ago, as part of J. Cole's Dreamville collective. I will give the Academy this, however; the two best Rap albums of the year (in my opinion) got nominated. Kendrick Lamar owns the Grammys when it comes to rap-specific awards, and is the only nominee that is also up for Album of the Year, so I will be surprised if he doesn't take this one home as well. Truth be told, it's the best of the bunch yet again, but that said, if he ends up a surprise winner for one of the major awards, I would be more than happy to instead go to Pusha T, who has never won and whose It's Almost Dry was nothing but bangers from start to finish.
Best R&B Song
"CUFF IT" – Beyoncé
"Good Morning Gorgeous" – Mary J. Blige
"Hrs & Hrs" - Muni Long
"Hurt Me So Good" – Jazmine Sullivan
"Please Don't Walk Away" – PJ Morton
Will Win: "Good Morning Gorgeous"
Could Win: "CUFF IT"
Should Win: "CUFF IT"
Anything BUT: "Hurt Me So Good"
Snubbed: "Break Up Twice" - Lizzo
This is another award I may not typically pay much close attention to, but this was such a good year for R&B, and for the second consecutive years, this particular category is absolutely loaded with killer tracks. So loaded, in fact, that there was no room for any of the several solid R&B tracks off of Lizzo's Special. Reigning winner Jazmine Sullivan returns to defend her crown, with another single off of last year's Heaux Tales, but will face some serious competition. Beyoncé needs no introduction, and while "CUFF IT" wasn't the lead single on RENAISSANCE, it's easily its most ready-made radio hit. Muni Long's "Hrs & Hrs" was a big hit, too, and is a double nominee from the Best New Artist candidate, and Mary J. Blige's "Good Morning Gorgeous" landed the legend surprise nods for both Record and Album of the Year, and then there's one-time winner and four-time nominee PJ Morton. Banger though "CUFF IT" is, of all the non-major category nominations for Beyoncé, I think she's most susceptible to defeat here, and the most likely beneficiary of a possible attempt to spread the wealth would likely be the hit single for the beloved Mary J. Blige. Still, though..."CUFF IT" is so good. Give it the attention it deserves.
Best R&B Performance
"Here With Me" – Mary J. Blige
"Hrs & Hrs" - Muni Long
"Hurt Me So Good" – Jazmine Sullivan
"Over" – Lucky Daye
"VIRGO'S GROOVE" – Beyoncé
Will Win: "VIRGO'S GROOVE"
Could Win: "Hrs & Hrs"
Should Win: "VIRGO'S GROOVE"
Anything BUT: "Over"
Snubbed: "I Hate U" - SZA
This is another loaded R&B category in a big year for the genre. So loaded, in fact, that there was no room for the catchy, TikTok-viral, single from SZA, whose late 2022 album will be in the running for the next Grammys ceremony. Four of the five nominees for R&B Song return for R&B Performance; Muni Long and Jazmine Sullivan for the same song, and Beyoncé and Mary J. Blige for different tracks from their Album of the Year-nominated releases. Joining them is Lucky Daye with "Over," which like "Hrs & Hrs" was a traditional R&B hit that was everywhere on the radio in the latter months of last year. I'd say this is where Beyoncé might be the most susceptible, as "VIRGO'S GROOVE" was far less popular than "CUFF IT," but not only is she always a safe bet, this song blows the rest of this field away in quality (granted, I may be somewhat biased, as it was my favorite song on RENAISSANCE). If there is to be an upset, though, don't be surprised to see it come for Long, who is heavily-nominated on the night, but is a big underdog for Best New Artist along with the various R&B races.
Best Pop Duo/Group Performance
"Bam Bam" - Camila Cabello feat. Ed Sheeran
"Don't Shut Me Down" - ABBA
"I Like You (Happier)" – Post Malone featuring Doja Cat
"My Universe" – Coldplay featuring BTS
"Unholy" – Sam Smith featuring Kim Petras
Will Win: "Unholy"
Could Win: "Don't Shut Me Down"
Should Win: "Don't Shut Me Down"
Anything BUT: "My Universe"
Snubbed: "Ojitos Lindos" - Bad Bunny feat. Rauw Alejandro
The nominees for Pop Duo/Group Performance were deeply unsettling to me, because they include songs I actually like and enjoy from artists I tend to not particularly like (Camila Cabello, Ed Sheeran, and Post Malone), as well as a song I can't stand from an artist I tend to love (Coldplay). Interestingly enough, though, I think the race here is really between the other two nominees, old-school favorites ABBA and the tag team of Sam Smith and Kim Petras. Typically, my rule of thumb in the Genre awards is that if an individual nominee is also up for one of the major awards, as is the case with "Don't Shut Me Down," that makes them the odds-on favorite. However, since ABBA's single didn't chart anywhere in the U.S. and the non-binary Smith and transgender Petras would be groundbreaking winners, plus those latter two have been tabbed to perform live tonight, I think "Unholy" might spring the minor upset. I'd love to be wrong, though; the charming "Don't Shut Me Down" is a total bop, and my favorite of the bunch, slightly edging the infectious "Bam Bam" due only to the unnecessary Ed Sheeran presence.
Best Pop Solo Performance
"About Damn Time" - Lizzo
"As It Was" - Harry Styles
"Bad Habit" – Steve Lacy
"Easy On Me" – Adele
"Moscow Mule" – Bad Bunny
"Woman" – Doja Cat
Will Win: "As It Was"
Could Win: "About Damn Time"
Should Win: "About Damn Time"
Anything BUT: "Easy On Me"
Snubbed: "Glimpse Of Us" - Joji
Of all the song-specific awards at the Grammys, this race has to be the most top-to-bottom competitive. The first four listed were among the biggest songs of 2022, and are double-nominees for Song and Record of the Year. Doja Cat's "Woman" is also up for Record of the Year, and while Bad Bunny's "Moscow Mule" didn't get a nod for either major award, it was the lead and biggest single for his groundbreaking nomination for Album of the Year. Apart from "Woman," which is a bop but made considerably less of a chart impression, I genuinely wouldn't be surprised with any winner here. My guess, though, is that we're most likely poised for an Adele vs. Harry Styles showdown for much of the night, both in the Pop and major categories. I think Adele is both still bigger worldwide and more revered by the Recording Academy, but Harry was far-and-away the more mainstream Pop presence this year, which makes me think at least in the genre races, it's likely his to lose. In fact, I would even tip Lizzo's delightful and omnipresent disco-pop earworm "About Damn time" to have a better shot at sneaking up for this award than the popular, but pretty stripped-back "Easy On Me." I could also see a surprise win for Steve Lacy's "Bad Habit," if it goes the way Styles' own "Watermelon Sugar" victory for this award did in 2021; namely, being 'the hugely popular song that doesn't stand a chance in the Record of the Year race.'
Best Pop Vocal Album
30 – Adele
Harry's House – Harry Styles
Music of the Spheres – Coldplay
Special – Lizzo
Voyage – ABBA
Will Win: Harry's House
Could Win: 30
Should Win: Harry's House
Anything BUT: Music of the Spheres
Snubbed: Versions Of Me - Anitta
Every year this category features some of the biggest names in music, which makes sense considering it's the top honor for a genre that's literally shorthand for "popular." That is once again the case for the field this year, which features a field comprised entirely of Album of the Year nominees. It's safe to say Coldplay and ABBA, who were both surprise nominees in the General fields, are longshots here as well, and though I hate to pile on a band I really like, I must once again express my dismay that the former is even up for either award. This otherwise-quality set of nominees would have been better served by a recognition of global pop sensation and Best New Artist nominee Anitta, or even with mediocre-but-inoffensive releases from Camilla Cabello, Post Malone or Maggie Rogers, than by Music of the Spheres. But it's a moot point, anyhow, as once again, I expect this will end up being a clash of the British titans. Though it's possible for ABBA to win a goodwill award, I think it's less likely genre-specific voters will be swayed by sentimentality, and while Lizzo has some of the same overlapping generational appeal the favorites do, Special was far less full of smashes than Harry's House and lyrically interesting than 30. This is tipping my hand a bit for some upcoming predictions, but my sense is that if one of the artists is poised for a big win (or two or three) in the major categories, another will win the big Pop awards. We saw this last year, with the Billie Eilish-Olivia Rodrigo split, and the year before, with Dua Lipa and Taylor Swift. I think Adele is better positioned in the Album of the Year race, so I'm going to give honors here to Harry, who did own the biggest and best pure pop album in 2022.
In a Euro-centric Pop field this year, which one of these two British megastars is poised for a bigger Grammy night?
GENERAL
Best New Artist
Anitta
Omar Apollo
DoMI and JD Beck
Samara Joy
Latto
Måneskin
Muni Long
Tobe Nwigwe
Molly Tuttle
Wet Leg
Will Win: Latto
Could Win: Måneskin OR Anitta
Should Win: Tobe Nwigwe OR Omar Apollo
Anything BUT: Måneskin OR Muni Long
Snubbed: Ethel Cain AND Black Country, New Road
If you've kept up with The Couch, you will know that a few weeks ago, I previewed this very award! This is an abnormally wide open race for one of the biggest awards of the night, given that for the first time in at least six years, there's no clear-cut established mainstream Pop favorite. Whoever wins, in other words, will certainly breaking the trend of Dua Lipa-to-Billie Eilish-to Megan Thee Stallion-to Olivia Rodrigo. In addition to not really knowing who will win, I find myself less personally emotionally invested than usual, as I don't dislike any of the nominees, but none of the four favorites do a whole lot for me, and the small handful I would be really jazzed for both a. don't have a lot of songs that are familiar to me, and b. don't stand much of a chance, most likely. I have to imagine that Latto, the only nominee with a radio smash to her name and the sole mainstream hip-hop nominee, is the favorite here, but it's far from a sure thing, and I could just as easily see either of the international acts winning tonight, too. Anitta has been an established global star for some time now, even if her success is only just now starting to permeate American borders, and 2021 Eurovision winners Måneskin bring a unique intergenerational appeal of having an old-school rock sound, that went surprisingly viral on TikTok and launched their domestic success. Were it up to me, though, the wildly inventive Tobe Nwigwe would win top honors, and we also would see a list of nominees that included the alt-rock breakout darlings Ethel Cain and Black Country, New Road.
Song Of The Year
"abcdefu" - GAYLE
"About Damn Time" - Lizzo
"As It Was" - Harry Styles
"All Too Well (10 Minute Version)" - Taylor Swift
"Bad Habit" - Steve Lacy
"BREAK MY SOUL" - Beyoncé
"Easy On Me" - Adele
"God Did" - DJ Khaled feat. Rick Ross, Li'l Wayne, Jay-Z, John Legend and Fridayy
"The Heart Part 5" - Kendrick Lamar
"Just Like That" - Bonnie Raitt
Will Win: “Easy On Me"
Could Win: “All Too Well (10 Minute Version)” OR "The Heart Part 5"
Should Win: “The Heart Part 5" OR "Just Like That"
Anything BUT: “abcdefu" OR "God Did"
Snubbed: “American Teenager" - Ethel Cain AND "My Love" - Florence and the Machine
Again, if you've kept up with The Couch, you know I also previewed this one! Apart from an overstuffed, mediocre "God Did," and a downright bad "abcdefu," this is a really good set of nominees! And, in keeping with the theme of the night, there's no clear favorite. Over half of the songs on this list are also nominees for Record of the Year, and most of them were among the biggest songs of the year, as well. Even the few that weren't big smashes (Bonnie Raitt, Taylor Swift, Kendrick Lamar) are all very impressive feats in songwriting. For an award that prides itself on being "the songwriter's award," I would love the profoundly introspective "Heart Part 5," perhaps my favorite individual song of the year, to win this Grammy, and I think there is a lane for it to do so. Though the Grammys are historically awful at recognizing Rap in the major categories, I think the number of big hits here could cancel votes for each other, while the important "The Heart Part 5" occupies a unique lane and rides that to victory, a la Childish Gambino's "This Is America" in 2019. That said, I think it's far more likely the Academy sticks with what they do best, and opts for 'bigger over better.' That probably leaves Adele and Harry Styles, who had the two most popular songs on this list, or perhaps Taylor Swift, whose re-release of "All Too Well" had social media in a chokehold in Fall 2021. The fact that Swift, often proclaimed to be one of the great living songwriters, has never won Song of the Year makes her a real contender, but I've learned to never bet against the Grammys' favorite songwriter of all. My money is on Adele taking this one.
Record Of The Year
"About Damn Time" - Lizzo
"As It Was" - Harry Styles
"Bad Habit" - Steve Lacy
"BREAK MY SOUL" - Beyoncé
"Don't Shut Me Down" - ABBA
"Easy On Me" - Adele
"Good Morning Gorgeous" - Mary J. Blige
"The Heart Part 5" - Kendrick Lamar
"Woman" - Doja Cat
"You and Me on the Rock" - Brandi Carlile feat. Lucius
Will Win: “Easy On Me"
Could Win: “As It Was” OR "The Heart Part 5"
Should Win: “About Damn Time” OR "BREAK MY SOUL"
Anything BUT: “You and Me on the Rock” OR "Easy On Me"
Snubbed: “Wait for U" - Future feat. Drake and TEMS AND "Last Last" - Burna Boy
Guess what? I also previewed this one! Perhaps unsurprisingly, given the high amount of overlap between the nominees for both awards, I consider this an equal, if not even stronger, race for Record of the Year, which recognizes the producer(s) rather than the songwriter(s). The minimal deadweight from the Song of the Year field has been trimmed to make way for a duo of solid-if-unspectacular nominees in Mary J. Blige and Brandi Carlile, as well as absolute bangers from ABBA and Doja Cat. The only thing that could improve this field is if Brandi's and Adele's pretty milquetoast production was instead swapped out for a couple more engaging Afro-influenced hits this year from Future and TEMS, and Burna Boy. Anyways, though this is certainly not the case annually, Record of the Year-- even more so than Song --tends to just go to the biggest hit. There is a ridiculous slew of hits in this category this year, to be sure, but once again the most-pervasive were from Adele and Harry. "As It Was" was a big hit with universal appeal, and it would not surprise me in the least if it won, but until I see someone break the chokehold Adele has on these awards, I'm not going to believe it's happening. Which is unfortunate, because I would love to see the flawless production of "The Heart Part 5" (which again, I think might have a slim shot to simply go the "This Is America" double-win route), or "About Damn Time" or "BREAK MY SOUL" recognized.
Album Of The Year
30 – Adele
Good Morning Gorgeous – Mary J. Blige
Harry's House – Harry Styles
In These Silent Days – Brandi Carlile
Mr. Morale and the Big Steppers – Kendrick Lamar
Music of the Spheres – Coldplay
RENAISSANCE – Beyoncé
Special – Lizzo
Un verano sin ti – Bad Bunny
Voyage – ABBA
Will Win: 30
Could Win: In These Silent Days OR RENAISSANCE
Should Win: RENAISSANCE OR Mr. Morale and the Big Steppers
Anything BUT: Music of the Spheres OR 30
Snubbed: It's Almost Dry - Pusha T AND Gemini Rights - Steve Lacy
As I discussed in my preview of this award (yeah, this one too!), this also appears to be a far more competitive race than in years past, which has typically spat out two-horse races (Billie Eilish vs. Olivia Rodrigo-- neither of whom won, in a shock twist -- last year, Dua Lipa vs. Taylor Swift in 2021, Billie vs. Lizzo in 2020, etc.).
No, this one genuinely feels wide open, in large part because of how many big names are up for the big awards. But it's not just the quantity of star power; it's the fact that there isn't a traditional frontrunner. By far the biggest mainstream pop stars nominated here are Adele-- who always wins Grammys but whose most recent album made nowhere near as much an impact as her last couple winners did --and Harry Styles, whose music was everywhere this past year, but never wins Grammys. Many expect, then, that this may be the year the Recording Academy finally awards Kendrick Lamar or Beyoncé for the first time. But, given that both artists' albums (and their nominated singles) were so non-traditional, so much less of a mainstream smash than any of their previously nominated-- and snubbed --work, that's far from a guarantee.
Conventional Grammy wisdom states that that very dynamic might open the door for a beloved veteran like Brandi Carlile and Mary J. Blige to benefit from vote-splitting, and emerge as a surprise winner due to being just universally liked and respected. And indeed, I think it's possible that happens, especially in the case of Brandi, who's been adored by the Academy for several years now; after all, that's likely the most logical explanation for how we got Jon Batiste winning top honors last year. On the other hand, I'm starting to think this might actually be the year for Beyoncé to win her elusive award. RENAISSANCE checks the boxes of being a smash success by a pop icon (Queen B's biggest since I Am... Sasha Fierce), a chance for a first-time win for a famously overlooked star, and the best critically-reviewed of all nominees. But look, both because I've talked myself into getting optimistic only to get crushed with disappointment for Beyoncé and Kendrick Lamar too many times, and because I literally have never gotten this award prediction correct* in my 7 years of Grammy predictions, I have to ultimately pull the trigger on the safest bet of all: Adele. Like I said above, until I see someone actually beat her out for top honors at the Grammys, I'm not going to believe it, especially for an album that's her best-reviewed to date.
*If you're curious, my incorrect picks through the years: Lemonade (2017), Melodrama (2018), Scorpion (2019), Cuz I Love You (2020), Future Nostalgia (2021), SOUR (2022)
My only other comment on this final award is to say that, as often as I gripe about Grammy nominations, I feel like I should be fair and make note of the fact that this is the lowest amount of complaints I have about an Album of the Year field, maybe ever? It would have been nice to see a more exciting body of work from a more relevant current artist, like Pusha T or Steve Lacy, than from the stars of yesteryears Coldplay or one of ABBA and Mary J. Blige. But all in all, if I were drafting nominees for Album of the Year and trying to account for objective quality, relevant popularity, and diversity in genre, I don't know that I could have done a much better job, and that's about the highest compliment I can pay the Recording Academy.
Some of the most infamous moments in Grammy history have been the multiple Album of the Year snubs for Beyoncé. Will Queen B be denied again? Or is this finally her time?
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