5 Premier League Preseason Predictions, Revisited
Way back in August, with the dawn of a new Premier League season within us, I offered 5 bold (and I mean BOLD) takes for how the 2018-19 season would transpire. Time has positively flown, and here we are with an incredible season in the rearview mirror. As we tie a bow on 9 months of thrilling football, I thought it might be fitting to look back at how those projections held up. I was eager to wash out the taste of finishing 85/140 on the season for my weekly predictions. That's good enough for right around 60%, which is not an ideal number if you're trying to convince people you know what you're talking about.
Anyways, before we delve into how horribly off-base I was, let me remind you that the title of the original piece foreshadowed the high probability that I look foolish come May. Wit that in mind, these are 5 things I predicted would transpire, in order of what I expected the least to most foolhardy prophesies would be:
1. Arsenal will finish Top 4.
The result: Wrong; 5th place*
I thought this was the most rational prediction of all, so the fact that this is starting me off 0 for 1 probably isn't a good sign. But to be fair, this was not way off. Arsenal finished in 5th place, 1 point out of automatic Champions League qualification, and before completely capitulating down the stretch in their final 5 matches, were sitting pretty in 3rd place. What's more, Arsenal can still clinch a berth in next year's Champions League with a win in next week's Europa League Final against London rivals Chelsea. So, this particular prediction was inaccurate, but the sentiment behind it (that Arsenal would have a decent season and qualify for the 2019-20 Champions League) was not.
2. Mourinho will not last the season.
The result: Correct!
The only prediction of the 5 (spoiler alert!) that I got completely right, and pardon me, but I have to give myself a bit of a pat on the back for this one. Of course, by the time Jose Mourinho got the axe from Manchester United in December, it had become a matter of "when," not "if." But, even though a loss to Brighton and a shocking home-field rout by Tottenham made it clear within the first 3 matches of the season that something was wrong with United, let us not forget that they were coming off of a 2nd-place finish the year prior and were widely believed to be Manchester City's main opposition in the title race. In the end, as I somewhat expected to be the case, a mixture of mediocre results and the grumpy manager's growing rifts with fans and star players forced the Man U brass to oust him midway through the season.
3. Mohamed Salah will top his goalscoring from last season.
The result: Wrong; 22 PL goals*
Another one that I got wrong, but right. The prediction that Salah would better his record-breaking 34 goals from the season prior was needlessly ambitious. To the surprise of nobody, he did not in fact break his own record, notching "only" 22 in the net in the 2018-19 Premier League. However, the thinking behind this prediction was to refute the idea that the defending Premier League Player of the Year was a "one-season wonder," as critics threw around leading up to this season. In reality, the Egyptian was anything but: though he was (laughably) left off of the PFA Team of the Year, his 22 goals this year were good enough for a 2nd-straight Golden Boot award, and when factoring in Salah's assists and fouls on him that led to free-kick or penalty goals, he was responsible for over 30 Liverpool goals in the Premier League. Beyond statistics, his impact was clear. The increased attention to Salah by opposing defenders led to more goals for his fellow attackers Sadio Mané and Roberto Firmino. Both forwards topped their goal output from the season before, and the former actually ended up matching Salah's 22 and sharing the Golden Boot with his teammate. Much like the Arsenal prediction, this one's specifics were not correct, but the sentiment was on point enough that I think it's fair to award myself half-credit.
4. West Ham will be relegated.
The result: Wrong; 10th place*
Well, for the first time in this prediction article, I was just dead wrong, and not even very close to being right. My thinking at the beginning of the year was that West Ham was going to go the route of Stoke City and Middlesbrough in years prior, and fail to mesh some relatively big-name signings. Through the first few matches of the season, I looked like a genius. West Ham opened their account with a listless 4-0 thrashing by Liverpool, and followed that up with three more sloppy losses, including home losses to apparent minnows Bournemouth and Wolverhampton. Then, some sort of magic and/or steroid injection happened during the first International Break, as the London club spent September upsetting Everton and Manchester United, and fighting Chelsea to a draw. The good mojo carried on, more or less, throughout the rest of the season, and not only were the Hammers not relegated, they finished in the Top 10, 18 points out of danger.
5. Chelsea will win the League.
The result: Wrong; 3rd place, with Manchester City champions*
I saved my best prediction for last. And by "best," I of course mean in terms of comedic value. Look, cut me a little slack. I couldn't predict Manchester United winning it all when I had just stated their manager wouldn't last the season, and I didn't want to be like everyone picking either Manchester City or Liverpool to win the league. Besides, just like West Ham, for the first while there, I was looking pretty smart. Chelsea were the only other club besides City and Liverpool to win their first 5 matches, and through about Thanksgiving time were well in contention for first place. Then came their first loss of the year, to rivals Tottenham, then shock losses to Wolverhampton and Leicester City soon after, and before you could say "Eden Hazard's going to Madrid," the Blues were far behind the two chief contenders. In the end, though on the whole it was a decent season for the Londoners in Maurizio Sarri's first season (a 3rd-place finish, finalists in both the League Cup and Europa League), it was not the title chase that their most ardent fans, plus me, would have expected. They ended up needing to win their last few down the stretch (and rely on some misfortune to other clubs) just to finish in the Top 4, and were 26 points away from eventual champions Manchester City.
In the end, I nailed only 1 of my 5 predictions. Between the half-credit I'm giving myself for both the Arsenal and the Mohamed Salah projections, though, I'd say I come in at about 40% correct on my bold outlook for the season. That's not Huddersfield Town bad, but it's not a great number either. Oh well. In the words of all my fellow Liverpool fans, here's to next year!