5 Premier League Predictions That Will Likely Look Foolish In May
As we reach Kickoff Day for the most elite domestic league of the World's most popular sport, predictions and odds are abound for how exactly this Premier League season will transpire. In lieu of a "storyline overview," I thought it'd be more fun to instead offer up 5 predictions for 2018-19.
The title essentially explains the thinking behind this piece. These are 5 things I'm going to predict will happen, knowing full well that come the end of the season, we will likely look back on these and laugh. In order of least to most foolhardy prophesy:
1. Arsenal will finish Top 4.
Why it's silly: Until recent years, Arsenal in the Top 4 would have been a given. However, with the rise of North London rivals Tottenham, as well as the resurgence of Liverpool under Jürgen Klopp, many expect the Gunners to be on the outside looking in for the foreseeable future. It makes sense: Arsene Wenger's tenure came to a sputtering end after consistently finishing the season in disappointing fashion. That, the lack of leadership from owner Stan Kroenke and the oft-underwhelming performances from Arsenal's big-name signings, have conspired to leave Arsenal fan morale at an all-time low.
Why I'm predicting it anyways: At the end of the day, this is still Arsenal. Talent abounds at every position; you'd be hard-pressed to find a club that didn't envy having Aubameyang and Mkhitaryan in attack, Özil and Xhaka in midfield, and Bellerín, Lichtsteiner, and Petr Cech at the back. Furthermore, new boss Unai Emery brings a proven track record of maximizing the talent he's given, and his aggressive style plays perfectly into "Arsenal football." I expect the side to hit their stride after Christmas, and pounce on the more vulnerable of the Top 6.
2. Mourinho will not last the season.
Why it's silly: Jose Mourinho is one of the biggest names in World football. The Manchester United manager has taken Chelsea to multiple Premier League titles, and brought domestic and European titles to Inter Milan, Real Madrid, and even FC Porto. What's more, his side is expected to challenge for the Premier League title this year, coming off a 2nd-place finish and boasting one of the most talented lineups in the country.
Why I'm predicting it anyways: It's been a nightmarish offseason for Mourinho and really, for Manchester United fans. The notoriously dour coach spent most of preseason pouting and whining in the press about the players at his disposal, the preparations for this coming year, and the expectations of him. After seeing top players start to forsake United for the likes of smaller rivals like Liverpool, and especially after seeing the way Man U played in the preseason, it's easy to wonder if his schtick is wearing thin with his team. After all, there have been countless reports of friction between him and star player Paul Pogba. More damningly, in nearly all of his recent stints, Mourinho has found great success, yes, but only to leave in unceremonious fashion not too long after. Both Madrid and Chelsea ended up sacking the man when, just a year after winning their respective leagues, the teams looked uninspired and hapless. Perhaps 2018-19 is what is becoming Mourinho's trademark "sacking season."
3. Mohamed Salah will top his goalscoring from last season.
Why it's silly: Salah broke the 38-match Premier League record for goals last year, notching a stunning 44 for Liverpool, also breaking the 38-match record for most games scored in the process. Based even on nothing else, that feat will be difficult to top. Add in some external factors, it becomes extremely unlikely. Such factors are: defenses will be more clued in to how to defend him, he'll take a natural step back this season after what might be partially "beginner's luck" in the Premier League, his team happens to have a glut of attacking talent that will also be relied upon to score goals, etc.
Why I'm predicting it anyways: Mohamed Salah is only in his mid-20s, but he's already established a pretty serious career trend. Namely, improving markedly year-to-year. After a fairly unsuccessful stint at Chelsea, Salah found a home in Italy, first with Fiorentina, scoring in nearly half of his appearances for that club. From Fiorentina, he went on to Roma, where his goal tally increased by about 5 both years. And then of course came last season, his first for Liverpool, where in Klopp's system of frenetic attack, he unleashed the absurd goal tally that saw him win Player of the Year. Many seem to think that he has reached the summit, but why would his improving stop after last season? 44 goals is no fluke-- the man is a world-class player. And yes, Liverpool has stocked up with enough talent that they don't need him to score all the goals...but that also means he has more elite talent around him making those goals possible. Don't expect his scoring rate to slow down drastically, if at all.
4. West Ham will be relegated.
Why it's silly: The dreaded relegation zone is often reserved for the small clubs that have just been promoted from the Championship the year before, or for slightly bigger sides who have gone stale, spending too many seasons with the same club instead of pursuing new ventures. West Ham is one of the most consistent mainstays in the top of the League, and until last year, haven't often really come too close to the Bottom 3. Furthermore, after last year's scare, the Hammers' owners have gone all in the Summer transfer window, acquiring the likes of Lukasz Fabianski, Jack Wilshere, and Andriy Yarmolenko in an attempt to become a top-half club again.
Why I'm predicting it anyways: Yet, as we've seen before with clubs like Stoke City and Middlesbrough, surprisingly audacious spending sprees don't always work out. In fact, perhaps at the end of the year, the Hammers will be looking at this summer transfer window as a net negative, that rendered a team without any identity. Manuel Pellegrini is a proven manager, but he's got his work cut out for him with this side, in stark contrast to past sides at Real Madrid, Málaga and Manchester City. Though on paper West Ham might be in much better shape than a lot of their peers, I expect the consistency and will that underdogs like Huddersfield Town and Brighton displayed last year to be absent from this team.
5. Chelsea will win the League.
Why it's silly: Because of a small, sneaky club named Manchester City, and their little-known cohorts, Manchester United. And the whole thing where they finished out of the Top 4 last year and fired their manager. They also lost their star keeper, who is now actively campaigning for Chelsea's best player to join him for Madrid.
Why I'm predicting it anyways: As of now, Eden Hazard has NOT in fact joined his Belgian teammate Thibaut Courtois at Madrid, and what that means is that we still have a Chelsea side that has he and N'Golo Kante pulling the strings, with Pedro, Willian and Alvaro Morata in attacking support, as well as David Luiz, Antonio Rüdiger and Azpilicueta in defensive support. That's an elite side, and the jolt of energy that typically comes with hiring a new manager might be all the Blues need to get back to the top. After all, nobody ping-pongs like Chelsea: they won the league with Mourinho in 2015, then barely finished in the Top 10 the following season. In 2017, under Antonio Conte, they were kings once again. Last year, they needed a splendid stretch near the end of the season just to finish 5th place. Just playing the law of averages means that it's their time again! This may sound absurd, but who else am I going to pick? City absolutely deserve to be favorites, but champions just don't repeat in the Premier League. Liverpool are a trendy pick, but can we actually count on Liverpool to win the league? My reservations regarding Manchester United are above, and I'm not optimistic that Arsenal or Tottenham have the stallions to go the distance this year. Thus, I'm hitching my wagon to Maurizio Sarri and Chelsea in 2018-19.