Why Don't Look Up Will Win Best Picture
'Tis the week before the Oscars, and a field of 10 films-- the highest number since 2011! --are ramping up their campaigns in a last-minute push for the top prize of them all, Best Picture. The biggest award has the potential to be either one of the most anticlimactic or most surprising result in recent years. The former is true, because really only two films have won any of the prizes on the awards circuit, and one of those [Jane Campion's The Power Of The Dog] is a notable step ahead in the sweepstakes. However, no frontrunner is a traditional winner, nor is without its detractors; those facts, as well as the Oscars' less predictable preferential voting system means that no nominee can be counted out of the race. Spotlight's and Moonlight's back-to-back upsets in 2016 and 2017, and Parasite's stunner in 2020 taught us to expect the unexpected, so we're here to give fans of all 10 nominees reason to believe on Sunday the 27th.
The next Best Picture nominee in our preview series is the star-studded, Netflix smash hit Don't Look Up.
In a world where many people these days seem to gripe, “I haven’t heard of any of those movies that were nominated!!,” actually having one that has been in the cultural zeitgeist since its release in December is a powerful thing. I’m of course talking about Adam McKay’s climate change satire Don’t Look Up.
Let’s break this down, shall we? Whenever I talk to my “casual” filmgoing friends and family members, one of the ten best pictures nominees this year that they have all at least given a chance to has been Don’t Look Up. It’s all thanks to its stacked cast, its breezy pace and the accessibility that Netflix provides. I’m fully aware that this small pool of people doesn’t have a direct effect on how the Academy votes, but it speaks to the larger issue of folks just not feeling invested in the movies that are nominated. They may want to throw a bone to a movie that your mother, mailman and dog have at least HEARD of because of ratings and general perception instead of the typical “who’s in that?” and “where can I watch that?” While Don’t Look Up is an extremely divisive movie (currently sitting at 55% on Rotten Tomatoes, making it one of the lowest-rated Best Picture nominees ever) it at least sparked debate and passion from those who loved it and hated it. Hmmmm. When was the last time a divisive movie that split people down the middle between love and hate won best picture? I think it starts with a “Green” and ends in a “Book?” The love and outrage over this winning Hollywood’s top prize may just be what the Oscars need to turn things around in terms of ratings.
Does the fact that it only has 4 nominations is what holds it back? Well, that’s one more than the current favorite to win (CODA) has, so I don’t really see that as an obstacle to overcome. Heck, Spotlight was able to win best picture with only one other win in best Adapted Screenplay. o If McKay can pull off a win in the Screenplay category like he just did at WGA, I don’t see Don’t Look Up’s Best Picture chances as an impossible mountain to climb.
Plus, the Academy clearly LOOOOOVES Adam McKay. Think about it: the guy behind Anchorman and Step Brothers has had a streak of three films in a row making it into the Best Picture category and one of the Screenplay categories. He even won the award for The Big Short. What really solidified his standing among this group is when he was nominated for Best Director for Vice (another very divisive film). He can also attract people like Christian Bale, Amy Adams, Leonardo DiCaprio and Meryl freakin’ Streep to his movies, which is a sign that actors love him, and clearly writers love him as well. What are the two biggest voting bodies of the Academy? SAG and WGA. Just sayin… a lot of personal love can go a long way here.
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