The Couch Power 10, Week 11
Believe it or not, we're in the second week of November. That's right, college football fans; though, if you're like me, it feels like the season literally just kicked off, we're in the home stretch of the season now. In fact, only 3 college football Saturdays remain between now and the playoff committee's unveiling of the inaugural 12-team bracket.
Speaking of the playoff committee, their second week of rankings will come in a matter of hours. Last week's first batch, dropped just before America voted to re-elect a racist, misogynistic, fascist felon as their king, didn't differ much at all from the AP and Coaches polls. Don't be surprised to see that change this week, though, as we got another dose of mild chaos over the weekend.
That's right, the college football carousel of craziness hasn't stopped turning yet! A slate that on the surface appeared fairly pedestrian proved to be anything but that. Only two matchups pitted ranked team against ranked team, both in the SEC, but in the primetime affair, Alabama stunned LSU by romping through Baton Rouge with a 37-point win, and likely eliminating Brian Kelly's Tigers from playoff contention in the process. Speaking of the Tigers who play in Death Valley, Clemson were one of several teams who narrowly avoided disaster; a loss against Virginia Tech would have probably knocked them out of the ACC and playoff sweepstakes altogether, but they were able to come back and win behind a mammoth 3rd quarter. Boise State remained in the driver's seat for the "Group of Five" path to the playoffs by surviving their biggest scare yet from Nevada, and half of the remaining Power 4 unbeatens came within an inch of their life: Indiana conceded the last 12 points of the game to Michigan, but survived the reigning national champions thanks to a last-minute turnover, and BYU looked dead in the water (or more accurately, at their own goal line) at rivals Utah before a fortuitous defensive holding flag kept their late drive alive, which ultimately culminated in a walk-off field goal. Not so lucky? Pittsburgh and Iowa State; both teams were unexpectedly still undefeated just two weeks ago, but suffered a second consecutive loss last week, and both at the hands of unranked opponents (Virginia and Kansas, respectively). And the unequivocal big winner of Week 11? Georgia Tech. That's right, the oft-embattled Yellow Jackets spent a Saturday in nirvana as they ended ACC favorite Miami's perfect season in Atlanta, and then a few hours later, watched as archrivals Georgia get absolutely dominated down in Mississippi by an Ole Miss team that finally secured Lane Kiffin's signature win at the program.
Just a refresher, in case you forgot: this is not a definitive ranking on how good the teams are, or on who I think will be/deserves to be in the playoff at the end of the year. Rather, it's more of a "What if preseason rankings and bigwig bias didn't predetermine the top teams" kind of thing, an ideal ranking of the country's teams based on what they've actually proved on the field to date. Don't be mad cuz I'm doin' me better than you doin' you:
1. Oregon
The rankings will probably harbor lots of controversy through the last few weeks of this season, but one thing that just about everyone will agree on is Oregon at #1, long as the Ducks keep winning. And keep winning they did; mediocre visitors Maryland kept things surprisingly competitive for a half, but Dan Lanning's squad stepped on the gas in the 2nd half to remain undefeated. A couple tricky games remain on their schedule, starting with an unenviable visit to Madison on Saturday night, but while they have not yet clinched their Big Ten title spot, I think it's safe to pencil in Oregon for the 12-team playoff field. It would take something enormous to keep them out.
2. BYU
I don't expect the committee to rank BYU in 2nd when the new rankings come out tonight. But I do think it should be given more genuine consideration than probably all of college football media will give it. Yes, BYU were extremely unfortunate to escape Salt Lake City with a win on Saturday night. But guess what? They won all the same. Utah is not what the Big 12 favorites they were expected to be preseason, but to go into your archrivals' house, face an absolutely delirious crowd, spend most of the game trailing, face a 4th and long from your own goal line trailing by 2 with a minute left, and emerge victorious is an awesome feat. Plus, it's not like BYU is skating by minnows; the Cougars' unbeaten record includes 3 wins over teams currently ranked in the Top 20. Not even Oregon can claim that.
3. Indiana
Not even reigning national champions Michigan could bring Indiana's schedule strength to below 100th in the country (due, I'm sure, in no small part to how average the Wolverines have turned out to be this year), which is the main reason the Hoosiers probably will not crack the Top 3-- or even the Top 5 -- tonight. Still, the Hoosiers are at 10-0 heading into their bye week before the trip to Ohio State. And more importantly, they continue to clear every hurdle put in front of them: the tight, defensive nature of this game was uncharted territory for Curt Cignetti's men, unless you count the first quarter of last week's Michigan State matchup, and IU found a way to win and keep the perfect season intact.
4. Ohio State
We didn't exactly learn anything about Ohio State through their 45-0 pasting of Purdue, but we at least got to see the Buckeyes look dominant for the first time in a month, after the loss to Oregon and near-escapes vs. Nebraska and Penn State. They did what a good team should do in destroying the worst team in the Big Ten, and their resumé holds up as among the best in the country: a top 25 schedule strength, with the 1-point thriller in Eugene, Oregon their sole blemish.
5. Texas
No team in the country is benefitting more from the infamous "eye test" than Texas; the Longhorns are destined to be probably no worse than #3 in the country after tonight, despite not owning a win over any ranked team. And I'm contributing to it, too! While I place far less emphasis on the eye test, it's not completely removed from my calculus, and what I've seen tells me that apart from the first half of their loss to Georgia, this looks like one of the best teams in the country. Besides, they can't be totally held responsible for the fall-off of their opponents: just a month ago, blowouts of Michigan, Oklahoma, and even Louisiana-Monroe looked a whole lot more impressive. In their demolition of a Florida side that had come awfully close to beating Tennessee and Georgia in weeks prior, they showed why they're again the team to beat in the SEC.
6. Tennessee
Speaking of 1-loss SEC teams that are the flagship state schools of a "T" state that wear orange and whose resumé doesn't look nearly as good any more... Tennessee! The Vols' incredible start to the season hasn't aged all that well, with preseason Top 20 teams NC State and Oklahoma falling off, but they continue to win since their brief blip at Arkansas, and once again control their own destiny in the SEC. Their body of work is actually slightly better to date than Texas's, thanks to that nicely aging win vs. Alabama, but I slotted them behind because last weekend's win over Mississippi State was the first time in 2 months we've actually seen them win comfortably. No matter- one way or another, this specific point will be moot after this weekend's trip to Georgia. Either the Vols pick up a 2nd loss, or their body of work becomes one of the best of anyone in the country.
7. Notre Dame
It sure seems like everyone is collectively sleeping on Notre Dame; sure, a 50-point beatdown of the worst Florida State team perhaps in modern history doesn't win you too many brownie points, but it does mark a fourth straight 20+ point win, and lend further credence to the argument that the shock loss to Northern Illinois in Week 2 was an aberration rather than an exposition of the Irish being overrated. Plus there's the small matter of the finely aging wins over Texas A&M, Louisville and hell, even Georgia Tech. They'll get another opportunity against a ranked team in a couple weeks with a matchup vs. currently unbeaten Army; if they can win just 2 of their remaining 3 with that one and tricky USC and Virginia sides, they're probably set.
8. Boise State
Given that the only team to remotely test Boise State since their last-second loss at Oregon in Week 2 was 2nd-best Mountain West team UNLV, it's safe to say the Broncos getting pushed by the league's worst team in Nevada came as somewhat of a surprise. No harm, no foul, though; Boise ended up winning by a touchdown, Ashton Jeanty kept his Heisman campaign alive with another ridiculous stat line, and with an 8-1 record from a schedule that includes two Top 20 opponents, they remain very much in the driver's seat to claim the automatic bid from the "Group of Five" conferences. That said, a warning shot: an undefeated Army taking down Notre Dame next weekend could completely upset that standing.
9. Penn State
I, like many, am skeptical on whether Penn State is actually all that good. I think the answer is they are the same they have just about always been under James Franklin: not good enough to beat either of the top dogs in the Big Ten, but good enough to beat literally everyone else in the conference, and in the era of the expanded playoff, that might just do the trick. Dismissiveness aside, winning easily against a tricky Washington team (reigning runners-up!) was a sign of good mental strength, as the Nittany Lions were hoping to avoid letting Ohio State beat them twice. Regardless of whether it will be enough to get them into the Big Ten championship, if they can win out against three underdogs from here on out, they will be in the 12-team bracket, no questions asked.
10. SMU
SMU had last weekend off, and while we've seen some teams "pick" bad times to not play, it's hard to think of a team that's won their bye week as significantly as SMU did. Sure, their marquee win over Pitt last week looks a little less impressive as the Panthers faltered again last Saturday. But that matters little to the Mustangs, who now sit alone atop the ACC standings thanks to Miami's loss, and whose resume gets a nice boost from Louisville's late-season renaissance and BYU's (their sole conquerors) continued perfect season. In their debut ACC season, SMU is two wins away from playing for an ACC title and the College Football Playoff.
Just missed: Army, Alabama, Ole Miss, Georgia, Miami, the North Carolina basketball team that showed up for the 2nd half vs. Kansas
BONUS: Couch Playoff Bracket!
*denotes conference auto-bid
Comments