Grammy Preview: 2020 Album of the Year Contestants
Though the 2020 Grammy Awards probably feel like something that will take place in some alternate future timeline, today marks not only one month since the Grammy eligibility period ended, but the start of the first round of voting. This voting round ends in just two weeks, with the nominees to be announced at some point from here to December 7, at which time voting begins for the final ceremony in January 2021.
Unless Los Angeles, near-annual hosts of the awards, experiences a massive turn of fortune regarding COVID cases, it’s likely that the 63rd Grammys will be a ceremony completely unfamiliar from all before, which is only fitting of a year unlike any before. But even amidst a worldwide pandemic (and ensuing quarantine measures), social unrest, natural disasters and politics tension, new music was still released. And as such, we musicheads once again await with eager anticipation to see what from September 2019-August 2020 will be nominated for what is billed as “Music’s biggest night.” As always, my highest level of interest is in the Album of the Year award, widely considered to be the Grammy equivalent of the Best Picture. Let's take a look at some works that I expect to be in the running:
Surefire Candidates
After Hours // The Weeknd
The Weeknd does not exactly fit the profile of Grammy favorite. He’s a big name in the pop scene, to be sure, but doesn’t exactly have the superstar status that many of his radio peers do, and also represents a brand of music— modern, gritty R&B —that does not tend to fare well in Grammy ceremonies. Yet, in his short discography, he has a track record as being very esteemed by the Recording Academy. His last two albums have both won the award for Best Urban Contemporary Album, and 2015 release Beauty Behind The Madness was also nominated for Album of the Year. Considering After Hours is his most critically-acclaimed release to date, and features the year’s biggest hit in “Blinding Lights,” you’ve gotta imagine he’s a shoo-in nominee this year.
folklore // Taylor Swift
Look, yes, I’ll address the elephant in the room: this is the 3rd year in a row I’ve marked Taylor Swift down as a lock to be nominated, and the last two years she has NOT, in fact, been nominated for Album of the Year. Plus, nothing is a given in 2020 (as evidenced by the fact that this time, I actually liked Taylor’s album). But where I was amused by Reputation‘s snub, and surprised by Lover’s exclusion, I will genuinely be floored if folklore is not among the nominees. T-Swift is one of the biggest stars in the world, and while not a traditional pop release, this was far and away her most-acclaimed album to date, so much so that it remains one of the best-reviewed of the year. Its lack of bonafide hits might actually help in this race; it was easy in past years to nominate the biggest singles from her albums for Record and/or Song of the Year and write that off as enough, but this time it’s likely Album or bust for Taylor, and surely we won’t see her strike out in the General fields, will we?
Contenders
Chromatica // Lady Gaga
After a hard turn towards a more stripped-down, Americana sound, Lady Gaga's last couple albums had flown somewhat under the radar by her standards. Enter 2020's Chromatica, which saw the return of electropop Gaga, and the return of radio hits such as "Rain On Me" and "911." It isn't most her acclaimed nor biggest work, and thus if the Academy is wary of overloading the field with Pop nominees, Chromatica may be one that gets the chopping block. But it's rarely wise to bet against a star of her stature.
Fetch The Bolt Cutters // Fiona Apple
Among 2020's surprises was an unannounced release from indie icon Fiona Apple. The much-respected artist dropped her first release since 2012's Idler Wheel, and it was amazingly fitting for the context it was released amidst. Created and recorded entirely from home on the app GarageBand, it's a chaotic, no holds barred explosion of poetry and sound. Fetch The Bolt Cutters is just eccentric enough that it may turn off some voters, but it's difficult to call an album that for some time had a 100 rating on Metacritic anything but a serious contender.
Fine Line // Harry Styles
If you've been paying attention, you'll have noticed that the eligibility window for the upcoming Grammys stretches back to September of last year, hence Harry Styles' December 2019 release is in play for this year. Interestingly enough, in recent ceremonies, the "previous-year" nominees have tended to be more under-the-radar albums rather than big pop releases-- H.E.R.'s self-titled album and Childish Gambino's "Awaken, My Love!" come to mind. That said, this 'problem' for Styles might be solved by the fact that Fine Line's single, "Watermelon Sugar," has been everywhere in 2020, and Record-Album double noms have been all the rage in recent years. Harry Styles seems to be having a bit of a cultural moment, too; whether that translates to major Grammy noms remains to be seen.
Future Nostalgia // Dua Lipa
Right at the start of the pandemic, Dua Lipa dropped one of the best pure pop albums in recent years. Not only was Future Nostalgia a record chock-full of vintage pop bangers, it likely holds a sentimental spot in voters’ minds as being the only source of new, uplifting music for the few months of quarantine. I’m almost tempted to put this down as a lock, given its swell reviews, but even with her prior win for Best New Artist, I’m not sure Dua Lipa is a big enough name yet this side of the pond to be a given. Plus, though there is no real deadweight on the track list, there also wasn’t one single mega hit from the album.
Gaslighter // The Chicks
The last time The Chicks (formerly known as The Dixie Chicks) released an album, it won on to win Album of the Year, while its lead single "Not Ready To Make Nice" was sweeping Record and Song of the Year. Granted, it was back in 2006, but still, it shows the Chicks had, and potentially still have, some sway. Just how much they factor into the public consciousness might the ultimate determinant for this award, because there's no question Gaslighter is both timely and well-reviewed.
The Highwomen // The Highwomen
Speaking of acclaimed female Country groups...the newly-formed Highwomen feature four women who are previous Grammy winners themselves. Their self-titled release was nearly a year ago, and did not see a whole lot of mainstream play, but the Americana/Country star wattage of their four members-- in particular 2018 Album and Record of the Year nominees Brandi Carlile and Maren Morris --may be enough to catch the eyes of the Recording Academy.
Hollywood's Bleeding // Post Malone
Maybe I was listening to the wrong radio stations, but it feels like Hollywood's Bleeding came a little under the radar after Post Malone's year of omnipresence in 2018. That said, what his Fall 2019 release might have lacked in the chart-busting singles that littered his previous two albums made up for in critical reception, becoming far-and-away his best-reviewed project to date. That, coupled with how big a name Post is on the pop scene, makes for a formidable contender in this race.
Please Excuse Me For Being Antisocial // Roddy Ricch
Roddy Ricch, the 21-year old from Compton has exploded onto the Hip-Hop scene in the last year, and this album, released last December is part of the reason why. But really, if this is going to score a Grammy nomination, it's going to come down to two words: "The Box." That single, the album's fourth, has been one of the biggest songs of the year, seemingly never falling out of the airwaves since its release in January. The power of that record might be enough to take its accompanying album to the top anyway, but when you factor in that Please Excuse Me received fairly good reviews and reached #1 on the charts, it makes the possibility that much greater.
RTJ4 // Run The Jewels
It feels like RTJ4 is only going to make the nominee list if the Recording Academy is intentionally looking for Rap albums to fill out the spots. That said, if they are looking for that specifically, it'll be hard to pass this one up. Run The Jewels is one of the most beloved and socially active artists in the Hip-Hop community, and in a year defined by protests and ongoing struggles for racial justice, it might be their time to break onto the Grammy stage. It doesn't hurt that RTJ4 is not only the most-acclaimed release of the duo's esteemed discography, but easily the best-reviewed Rap album of the year.
Ungodly Hour // Chloe x Halle
Sisters Chloe and Halle Bailey may be young, but they're no strangers to the Grammys stage, having been nominated for Best New Artist just two years ago. Their second album, released this summer, has a real chance at getting them back up there. They might not be mainstream radio mainstays yet, but they have a huge online following and social media fanbase, and Ungodly Hour saw some of the better reviews among 2020's biggest releases.
Longshots
3.15.20 // Childish Gambino
3.15.20 is easily the most experimental of Childish Gambino’s already-impressive (and diverse) discography Donald Glover’s overnight release originally had no formal album or name, just a hyperlink to a continuous stream under his birth name. It eventually turned into the album 3.15.20, released under his stage name Childish Gambino, but kept the minimalist artwork and song titles. It’s tough to call anything by Gambino a long shot, considering his previous album “Awaken, My Love!” was nominated for Album of the Year, and two years ago, his single “This Is America” became both the first Rap song to win Record of the Year and to win Song of the Year. But futuristic, psychedelic funk doesn’t typically make too much of a Grammy impression, and this album doesn’t have what its predecessor had in “Redbone,” which is a massive lead single.
Jaime // Brittany Howard
Brittany Howard, frontwoman of The Alabama Shakes, released her debut solo album in December of last year to much critical acclaim. Jaime is a terrific album, touching on race, faith, grief among other things. However, it's hard to see Howard, whose name is not exactly a household one, generating a whole lot of buzz amongst the Academy, especially for an album that was released in 2019. That said, it was one of last year's best-reviewed albums, and her Alabama Shakes have been surprise nominees for Album of the Year before!
Magdalene // FKA twigs
Long an indie darling, avant-garde pop artist FKA twigs made an appearance on the Grammy stage. Sadly, it was not in the form of her singing, nor even in recognition of her nomination for Best Music Video, but rather in the form of an odd decision by the Academy to have her pole dance amidst a Prince tribute. It may have been a misuse of her talent, but if nothing else, it showed the recording academy had taken notice of her, and now with the critically-acclaimed Magdalene, she has a chance to get back in the Grammy mix. I have to imagine there’s only room for one experimental indie fave in the Album of the Year race, and Fiona Apple will be pegged to take that spot. But if not, you would think FKA twigs is next in line.
Rough And Rowdy Ways // Bob Dylan
79-year old Bob Dylan is one of the most famous and respected figures in songwriting history. His June release Rough And Rowdy Ways isn't just one of the best-reviewed albums of the year, it's one of the best-reviewed of his entire storied career. So why is he a longshot, as opposed to a lock? Quite simply, the Grammys have become a young man's (or more accurately, a young woman's) game of late. Gone are the days when the awards would pass up fresh new faces in order to give sentimental trophies to Robert Plant, Herbie Hancock, Paul McCartney, and Alisson Krauss. In 2016, there was the chance to nominate two different recently-deceased legends in David Bowie and Leonard Cohen for their acclaimed releases, but neither one made the field. Last year, Bruce Springsteen's Western Stars was very well-received, but did not receive any Grammy attention. So until we see that trend reversed, I'm going to assume the same holds true for even the great Bob Dylan.
The Slow Rush // Tame Impala
Kevin Parker, who fronts (and really is the sole creator of) Tame Impala, is well-respected in the music industry and has a fairly streamlined but extremely devoted fanbase. His sonically-pleasing Slow Rush was greeted warmly by fans and critics alike, and felt like somewhat of a salve in the midst of a crazy year. It's a bit hard for me to see this one crashing the Grammy party if his bigger and more-acclaimed Currents couldn't, but that 'good vibes' feel may be enough to score him an upset bid.
SOUND & FURY // Sturgill Simpson
Back in 2016, the Album of the Year nominees featured 4 of the biggest names in music: Adele, Beyonce, Drake and Justin Bieber. And joining them... was Sturgill Simpson? The artist’s surprise inclusion among the nominees was so notable, host James Corden’s monologue included a (rather harsh) joke about it, but the Country vet has a chance to get back to the stage this year, thanks to the late 2019 release of SOUND & FURY. The album is the latest in a line of highly-respected bodies of work by Simpson, though it's unlike anything he's done before. Revoking country tendencies, the album was a depp dive into psychedelic rock, and was accompanied by an anime film. So while it's unlikely that lightning will strike twice for Sturgill, there’s certainly precedent for him, and perhaps the large change in direction will inspire new supporters.
Suga // Megan Thee Stallion
Megan Thee Stallion exploded onto the scene in 2019, and has both become and remained one of the biggest names in the mainstream radio scene into 2020. Should the nominating committee determine her eligible for Best New Artist, she'd almost surely be a shoo-in for the award. All of that hype might be enough to carry Suga to an Album of the Year nod. But I'm not sure that's likely of an EP, particularly one that doesn't include any of her biggest songs to date ("Cash Shit," "Hot Girl Summer," Savage" (the Beyoncé version), or "WAP").
What You See Is What You Get // Luke Combs
Luke Combs is one of the biggest rising stars in the Country landscape today. He's no stranger to the Grammys, either having scored a Best New Artist nom just two years ago. The Grammys have a proclivity for overlooking Country music, so if there is a spot for the genre in the Album of the Year, I have to imagine this runs behind The Chicks and The Highwomen, especially as a 2019 release. Then again, perhaps the late addition of the COVID-inspired "Six Feet Apart" to the streaming versions of the album will help give it a push.
Prediction Time
Before I get into my predictions, it's important to point out a few factors that will affect how the nominees will look. The most important one is that this is now the third year the Grammys will have extended the field for all the major general awards to 8 nominees, from the usual 5. This (presumably) allows them to include and accomodate a wider variety of genres, though that was also the thought behind the Oscars expanding their Best Picture field, and that change has mostly seen a higher number of the same kind of nominees.
To be fair to the Grammys, an award show that I've lambasted year after year, the results from the first year of the extended field were a remarkable success. All General fields saw thoroughly deserving winners, and the nominees reflected remarkable diversity in genre, race, gender, and even popularity. The flip side to that was last year, which while having another impressively diverse array of nominees, saw every single General award given to one artist; namely, Billie Eilish.
In short: I have no idea what to expect this year. My "automatic bid per genre" theory has sort of panned out, with Rap, Hip/Hop, Country, Pop, R&B, Rock, and even Indie Folk all represented in the Album of the Year field the last two years. However, many of the individual nominees I would not have seen coming, and a couple I very much expected to see were not among them.
That said, I've got my two "Surefire Contenders" that I feel good about this year, and to fill out the other 6 spots, there are some constants I've seen in this two-year sample size that are helping guide me. One is that there's been at least one Rap nominee, fueled by its wildly successful lead single (Cardi B, Black Panther and Drake in 2018, Li'l Nas X last year). Since those Rap nominees have been more about the commercial choice than the artistic ones-- just being real -- I'm going to give the edge to Roddy Ricch, who has filled a largely Drake-less, Kanye-less, Travis Scott-less void on the radio this year. H.E.R.'s back-to-back nominations also showed a tendency to recognize a young artist displaying 'traditional' R&B, a spot that could be claimed by Chloe x Halle this time around.
Other trends? A female artist beloved by indie 'musicheads' with Kacey Musgraves in 2018, and Lana Del Rey in 2019. I'm going to guess this slot might be claimed by Fiona Apple, wildly different as she may be from both those artists. Then there's the 'longshot' alternative/folk-rock nominee: Vampire Weekend's Father Of The Bride last year and Brandi Carlile's By The Way, I Forgive You the year before were both real surprises. Pleasant surprises, mind you, but surprises all the same. Of my longshots this time around, a few candidates fit the bill; namely, Brittany Howard, Tame Impala, and Sturgill Simpson. I'm going to say that Tame Impala's odds are the most likely, given the recency of his release. That leaves two spots, which I'm just going to assign to Dua Lipa, by virtue of having one of the biggest and best Pop albums (when in doubt, go with Pop!) and The Chicks, as a recognition of their continuing relevance and a nod to genre diversity.
So, my final prediction-- in alphabetical order-- is:
After Hours, The Weeknd
Fetch The Bolt Cutters, Fiona Apple
folklore, Taylor Swift
Future Nostalgia, Dua Lipa
Gaslighter, The Chicks
Please Excuse Me For Being Antisocial, Roddy Ricch
The Slow Rush, Tame Impala
Ungodly Hour, Chloe x Halle
The following just missed my cut, and if nominated, should be considered in the tier of "Gahhhh, I knew I should have predicted that":
Chromatica, Lady Gaga
Fine Line, Harry Styles
Hollywood's Bleeding, Post Malone
Rough And Rowdy Ways, Bob Dylan
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