5 Premier League Preseason Predictions, Revisited at Midseason

Way back in August, with the dawn of a new Premier League season upon us, I offered 5 bold takes for how the 2022-23 season would transpire. We're not quite perfectly halfway through the season, but it feels like that, with the season abruptly pausing for the World Cup after 13 or 14 matches played. As the Premier League season resumes today, I figured it would be a nice time to pop in and see just how well and how poorly these predictions are aging:

1. Manchester City will 3-peat.

My August logic:

"Manchester City have won the last two titles, yes, and four of the last five title, yes. But if going back-to-back is already hard, going back-to-back-to-back is that much harder. It's only been done twice in the Premier League era, both times by City's crosstown rivals Manchester United, and most recently in 2009. City's chief title rivals Liverpool return almost everyone from a side that came within 5 minutes of pipping them for the crown last season on the last day, and the other Big Six clubs have all made significant moves themselves, be it in the form of new ownership, new manager, or summer signings. Meanwhile, City are undergoing a rare, small-but-significant changing of the guard, with familiar faces like Raheem Sterling. Gabriel Jesus, Fabinho and Oleksandr Zinchenko making way for the new wave of talent like Erling Haaland, Julian Alvarez and Kalvin Phillips."

How it's looking: Currently wrong, but still very possible.

Granted, it's not a good sign that even my least audacious prediction of the five would be inaccurate if the season ended today. League leaders Arsenal have vastly outperformed mine and everyone's expectations, and most title contenders, even including Manchester City, have underachieved. But the good news is that even an 'underachieving' City side is still good enough to be in 2nd place, 5 points back from the lead, and firmly still in the thick of the title race. While I definitely did not see 'Arsenal in 1st, City several points back, and the likes of Chelsea, Liverpool and Tottenham all struggling to even remain in the Top 4, I do still feel fairly confident that City can win the league. The only season since Guardiola's second year with the club in which Man City haven't won was in 2019-20, when Liverpool essentially had the race wrapped up by December. Gun to my head, I'm still betting on the Cityzens to take the trophy.

2. Darwin Núñez will outscore Erling Haaland.

My August logic:

"It's no secret Liverpool's high-profile transfers have had a better track record of immediate success than Manchester City's. Just look at how instantly and radically the likes of Mohamed Salah, Virgil Van Dijk and Alisson transformed their side, while in Manchester, guys like Bernardo Silva, Riyad Mahrez, Rodri and Jack Grealish have (and will) eventually become crucial players for City, but not before a year or two of needing to adjust. In a similar vein, while neither striker is exactly a "plug and play" for the established style their managers prefer, Erling Haaland is a more clear mismatch, requiring Pep Guardiola to tinker with midfield positioning, formations and personnel. Darwin Núñez isn't Sadio Mané, but Luis Diaz can occupy the void created by the now-Bayern forward while Núñez plays as a "more clinical Firmino," or "more pacy Jota." Perhaps most crucially, only one of the two is coming in with the pressure of being 'the exact missing piece': as THE focal point of goalscoring for Man City, Haaland will command much more attention from defenders. For defenders that key in on Núñez, however, they run the risk of Salah, Diaz, Jota or Firmino sneaking in behind them to tap one in. This will open up considerably more opportunities for the Uruguayan."

How it's looking: The less said about this one, the better.

To be fair, Núñez has performed close to what I expected from him. He missed 3.5 matches due to an ill-advised red card, but in all appearances has banged in 6 goals, good for a goal roughly every two matches. Those chances will continue to come, and I think he'll only develop into a more consistent finisher. No, it's Haaland I was wildly off on. Of course I knew how great the Norwegian striker was, and knew he would continue to be great on an even better team. But I cannot believe the pace at which he has made a mockery of Premier League defenses. 18 goals in 14 matches is absolutely ridiculous; nobody is catching him. Not Núñez, not anyone.

3. Neither Chelsea nor Manchester United will make the Top 4.

My August logic:

"Chelsea did play in 3 Cup finals [last year, to be fair, and actually took all three to extra time. But when all was said and done, the Blues only took one trophy (the Club World Cup) from a season with incredibly lofty expectations, and fell well short of competing for the two biggest trophies, exiting the Champions League in the quarterfinals and exiting the Premier League race around some time in January. They also saw the 2nd half of their season mired in controversy, facing fines, bans, and more until Russian owner Roman Abramovich relinquished control of the club. Though they finally settled on new owners, that group are off to a tumultuous start, with an offseason defined by whiffing on desired signings, and Tuchel publicly calling out his players for their preseason performance. Manchester United, weirdly enough, probably have the better vibes at the moment and come into the season with renewed optimism, despite the disaster that was their '21-'22 season. There's still a long way to go for this to be an elite team again, though; the Red Devils have very few players on the teamsheet that will strike fear into opponents' hearts, and though ten Hag may be able to change the culture and restore the club to its winning ways, it will not be an overnight process. Hell, even Jürgen Klopp couldn't really break through with Liverpool until his 3rd season at the helm. But most importantly of all, there is going to be stiff Top 4 competition this season, certainly from the likes of a rejuvenated and refurbished Arsenal and Tottenham sides, and perhaps even would-be spoilers from last years like West Ham and Leicester City."

How it's looking: Actually, very much in play!

I'm not feeling too bad about this prediction! In fact, if the season ended today, it would be absolutely right, with Manchester United currently in 5th place and Chelsea in 8th. I expect we'll see one or both make a real push for the Top 4 yet, as their new managers get their system more in place and find ways to maximize the clear amounts of talent at their disposal. But I also feel confident that Liverpool is going to be in the conversation at year's end, Newcastle and Tottenham seem hellbent on taking the race to the wire, and barring something drastic, Arsenal and Manchester City are essentially locks. There are a lot of horses jockeying for minimal spots, in other words. I'm not saying I will definitely get this one right, but of all my predictions, it seems the most likely to be right.

4. Mohamed Salah will tie Thierry Henry's record by winning his 4th Golden Boot.

My August logic:

"He's Mo Salah, and scoring goals is what he does. Every season since before the Egyptian King even kicked a ball for Liverpool, critics have been ready to decry him as overrated, or when that rang hollow, argue that he'll never again reach heights of past seasons. And yet, he just keeps performing brillianty, winning 3 Golden Boots, 2 Premier League Player of the Years, 4 Premier League Team of the Season nods, and helping lead Liverpool to just about every trophy under the sun. The grind of last season clearly took a toll on him, as did interspersed Cup of Nations and World Cup Qualifying matches with Egypt, and the ongoing back-and-forth with his club about his tenure there. This year, the latter two will not be a factor; Egypt missed out on the World Cup, meaning Salah will get a rare midseason month of rest, and he will likely be rejuvenated by signing a new long-term contract keeping him with Liverpool. These facts + the attention Liverpool's new boys in attack will also get from defenders + his usual hunger for goal = a real problem for the rest of the league. It may be a one match sample size, but one look at his dominant performance vs. Manchester City in the Community Shield last weekend is proof that this man is still the main menace in front of goal."

How it's looking: Not impossible, but very unlikely.

See #2 above. Per usual, Mo Salah's still been very good this season, but well off the goalscoring pace by the lofty standards he set himself in the first half of last season. And besides... nobody is catching Haaland.

5. Fulham will finish last place.

My August logic:

"We've seen this story before. Fulham and Norwich City have become English Football's ping-pong teams over the last few seasons, and it's not simply just that the two are taking turns going up and down; it's that they're consistently dominating fellow Championship sides only to find that their once-flowing attack gets ripped to shreds in the Premier League. Though I commend and have a soft sport for the teams that come up to the Premier League and remain dedicated to a positive brand of attacking football, they tend to not fare well once they face a noticeable talent and depth gap. Truthfully, the clubs who have a more organized, defensive identity actually seem to fare better in the top tier. Surprisingly long stints from Burnley and West Brom come to mind, for example, as does Sheffield United's surprise success in '19-'20. In other words, for every Leeds and Brentford success story, there are two stories of the Norwiches, and, well, the Fulhams. I just think the leap is going to once again prove too much for the Cottagers."

How it's looking: Almost surely wrong.

I should have known this prediction was in trouble when Fulham began the season by holding my Liverpool guys to a frustrating 2022 draw. The Cottagers didn't stop there, either, hovering near the top of the table in the first month of play. It's safe to say Marco Silva and Fulham have acclimated to the Premier League much better this time than in previous stops in the top flight. A rough October set them back a little bit, and who knows if they'll end the season flirting with a spot in European competitions the way they've been positioned thus far, but it seems highly unlikely that they will slide all the way to the relegation zone, let alone dead last.