5 Premier League Predictions That Will Likely Look Foolish In May

It's hard to believe, but the Premier League is already back! As we reach Kickoff Day for the most elite domestic league of the World's most popular sport, predictions and odds are abound for how exactly this Premier League season will transpire. In lieu of a "storyline overview," I thought it'd be more fun to instead offer up 5 predictions for 2022-23.

The title essentially explains the thinking behind this piece. These are 5 things I'm going to predict will happen, knowing full well that come the end of the season, we will likely look back on these and laugh at my folly. In order of least to most foolhardy prophesy:

1. Manchester City will 3-peat.

Why it's silly: Manchester City have won the last two titles, yes, and four of the last five title, yes. But if going back-to-back is already hard, going back-to-back-to-back is that much harder. It's only been done twice in the Premier League era, both times by City's crosstown rivals Manchester United, and most recently in 2009. City's chief title rivals Liverpool return almost everyone from a side that came within 5 minutes of pipping them for the crown last season on the last day, and the other Big Six clubs have all made significant moves themselves, be it in the form of new ownership, new manager, or summer signings. Meanwhile, City are undergoing a rare, small-but-significant changing of the guard, with familiar faces like Raheem Sterling. Gabriel Jesus, Fabinho and Oleksandr Zinchenko making way for the new wave of talent like Erling Haaland, Julian Alvarez and Kalvin Phillips.

Why I'm predicting it anyways: There's a reason I'm ranking my prediction of who is going to win the league, easily THE question of every season, as my least bold one here- Manchester City under Pep Guardiola have earned the right to be default favorites every season. Does my Red heart lead me to think Liverpool could get one over on them this year? Sure. Do I think the moves Chelsea and Tottenham are making, coupled with their renowned managers, could make them serious title threats? Not really, but I suppose it's not out of the question. But is it a smart bet to take anyone but City to win at all? No. They have reached "Bayern in the Bundesliga," "PSG in Ligue 1" levels of domestic dominance. Nobody can compete with their talent, depth, and resources, and oh yeah, by the way, they have one of the great managers in football on top of that. They're a juggernaut, and you just don't bet against a juggernaut.

2. Darwin Núñez will outscore Erling Haaland.

Why it's silly: Honestly, it's silly to even make this head-to-head comparison in the first place (you happy, Gabe?). The two are different kinds of strikers, brought into two different systems, to fill different roles at their respective clubs, and the media's constructed 'rivalry' between the two has felt needless. Whoever win the title between Liverpool and Manchester City likely will have done for it a multitude of reasons beyond simply a new striker. And that's to say nothing of the actual proclamation itself, which is asserting that the player ESPN recently ranked as the 42nd-best in the league will outplay their 2nd-best.

Why I'm predicting it anyways: It's no secret Liverpool's high-profile transfers have had a better track record of immediate success than Manchester City's. Just look at how instantly and radically the likes of Mohamed Salah, Virgil Van Dijk and Alisson transformed their side, while in Manchester, guys like Bernardo Silva, Riyad Mahrez, Rodri and Jack Grealish have (and will) eventually become crucial players for City, but not before a year or two of needing to adjust. In a similar vein, while neither striker is exactly a "plug and play" for the established style their managers prefer, Erling Haaland is a more clear mismatch, requiring Pep Guardiola to tinker with midfield positioning, formations and personnel. Darwin Núñez isn't Sadio Mané, but Luis Diaz can occupy the void created by the now-Bayern forward while Núñez plays as a "more clinical Firmino," or "more pacy Jota." Perhaps most crucially, only one of the two is coming in with the pressure of being 'the exact missing piece': as THE focal point of goalscoring for Man City, Haaland will command much more attention from defenders. For defenders that key in on Núñez, however, they run the risk of Salah, Diaz, Jota or Firmino sneaking in behind them to tap one in. This will open up considerably more opportunities for the Uruguayan.

3. Neither Chelsea nor Manchester United will make the Top 4.

Why it's silly: These two clubs are not the kind of clubs you predict to have a bad season in general. They are big enough names and historic enough clubs that it seems crazy to think they wouldn't slot in amidst the best of the best. That's to say nothing of the fact that at this time last year, Chelsea were the reigning champions of Europe, and both teams were being talked about as serious Premier League title contenders, even more so than eventual near-champions Liverpool. And oh by the way, Chelsea have one of the top managers in the World on Thomas Tuchel, and Man United finally found their man in the form of the highly sought-after Erik ten Hag.

Why I'm predicting it anyways: Because of last year, and how much a year changes things. Chelsea did play in 3 Cup finals, to be fair, and actually took all three to extra time. But when all was said and done, the Blues only took one trophy (the Club World Cup) from a season with incredibly lofty expectations, and fell well short of competing for the two biggest trophies, exiting the Champions League in the quarterfinals and exiting the Premier League race around some time in January. They also saw the 2nd half of their season mired in controversy, facing fines, bans, and more until Russian owner Roman Abramovich relinquished control of the club. Though they finally settled on new owners, that group are off to a tumultuous start, with an offseason defined by whiffing on desired signings, and Tuchel publicly calling out his players for their preseason performance. Manchester United, weirdly enough, probably have the better vibes at the moment and come into the season with renewed optimism, despite the disaster that was their '21-'22 season. There's still a long way to go for this to be an elite team again, though; the Red Devils have very few players on the teamsheet that will strike fear into opponents' hearts, and though ten Hag may be able to change the culture and restore the club to its winning ways, it will not be an overnight process. Hell, even Jürgen Klopp couldn't really break through with Liverpool until his 3rd season at the helm. But most importantly of all, there is going to be stiff Top 4 competition this season, certainly from the likes of a rejuvenated and refurbished Arsenal and Tottenham sides, and perhaps even would-be spoilers from last years like West Ham and Leicester City.

4. Mohamed Salah will tie Thierry Henry's record by winning his 4th Golden Boot.

Why it's silly: Well first of all, as we discussed above, there are two young players named Erling Haaland and Darwin Núñez that may have something to say about that. There are also two other plays, both from Tottenham, named Harry Kane and Son Heung-Min, who would beg to differ and invite you to look at their combined 4 Golden Boots. The competition for this award is fierce, and only getting fiercer. And call me crazy, but I have to imagine defenses will be paying special attention to the player who is both the reigning Golden Boot winner AND Premier League Player of the Year. There's also the not-insignificant matter of his late-season form; despite hanging on to both those accolades, there's no question Salah showed a steep dropoff in his attacking acumen over the last 3-4 months of last season.

Why I'm predicting it anyways: Because he's Mo Salah, and scoring goals is what he does. Every season since before the Egyptian King even kicked a ball for Liverpool, critics have been ready to decry him as overrated, or when that rang hollow, argue that he'll never again reach heights of past seasons. And yet, he just keeps performing brillianty, winning 3 Golden Boots, 2 Premier League Player of the Years, 4 Premier League Team of the Season nods, and helping lead Liverpool to just about every trophy under the sun. The grind of last season clearly took a toll on him, as did interspersed Cup of Nations and World Cup Qualifying matches with Egypt, and the ongoing back-and-forth with his club about his tenure there. This year, the latter two will not be a factor; Egypt missed out on the World Cup, meaning Salah will get a rare midseason month of rest, and he will likely be rejuvenated by signing a new long-term contract keeping him with Liverpool. These facts + the attention Liverpool's new boys in attack will also get from defenders + his usual hunger for goal = a real problem for the rest of the league. It may be a one match sample size, but one look at his dominant performance vs. Manchester City in the Community Shield last weekend is proof that this man is still the main menace in front of goal.

5. Fulham will finish last place.

Why it's silly: It's already generally a daring ask to predict which single team will finish last place in the league, as opposed to generally throwing out a few relegation candidates. After all, who knows if the Championship teams are ready to make the leap, or if the narrow escape from last year's relegation-threatened sides was enough to scare them straight for this season? Such a prediction is downright foolish when it's made regarding a team that has plenty of Premier League experience, and won the Championship last season in record form, belting in an astonishing 106 goals.

Why I'm predicting it anyways: Well, because we've seen this story before. Fulham and Norwich City have become English Football's ping-pong teams over the last few seasons, and it's not simply just that the two are taking turns going up and down; it's that they're consistently dominating fellow Championship sides only to find that their once-flowing attack gets ripped to shreds in the Premier League. Though I commend and have a soft sport for the teams that come up to the Premier League and remain dedicated to a positive brand of attacking football, they tend to not fare well once they face a noticeable talent and depth gap. Truthfully, the clubs who have a more organized, defensive identity actually seem to fare better in the top tier. Surprisingly long stints from Burnley and West Brom come to mind, for example, as does Sheffield United's surprise success in '19-'20. In other words, for every Leeds and Brentford success story, there are two stories of the Norwiches, and, well, the Fulhams. I just think the leap is going to once again prove too much for the Cottagers.