Champions League (Restart) Predictions: Quarterfinals

The dust has barely settled from the Round of 16, that glorious Champions League anthem has barely stopped pouring out of the stadium loudspeakers, but it's already time to turn our attention to the quarterfinal round. Most years, we would have an additional draw to determine the next matchups, then several weeks of wait and anticipation before they are actually played. However, in this era of COVID-19 and resulting delays and compressed timelines, we're back in action within a week of the prior round.

Unlike the 2nd legs of the previous round, which saw the home teams play in their own stadiums, all clubs now head to Portugal, to play out the rest of the tournament in two venues in Lisbon. Speaking of that previous round, you may notice that I correctly forecasted that we would see one upset in the last 4 matches. You may also notice that, other than the foregone conclusion that Bayern Munich would beat Chelsea, that statement was about the only thing I got right. The upset in question was Lyon surviving against Juventus, and not Napoli knocking off Barcelona. The latter rode some vintage Messi Magic to the quarterfinals, and while we're at it, Manchester City closed the deal against Real Madrid, contrary to what I expected. Well done, Daniel!

Now, to this week's quarterfinal matches:

Atalanta vs. Paris Saint-Germain

Round of 16: Atalanta def. Valencia 8-4, Paris Saint-Germain def. Borussia Dortmund 3-2

Atalanta has been one of the best stories not only of this Champions League tournament, but of recent European football history. The small Italian club, who finished 4th place in last year's Serie A and was making their first-ever Champions League appearance, was not expected to make any noise in the competition. And, after 4 matches played, they weren't: they sat in last place with 1 point and a minus-9 goal differential. They then won their last two group stage matches, sneaking into the knockout stages by a hair, where they blitzed fellow Cinderella side Valencia behind two 4-goal wins, and solidified a spot in the quarterfinals. After a tragic several months in Italy, where Atalanta's home city Bergamo was identified as one of the epicenters of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy, the tournament is now fit to resume, which means their dream stays alive

While this matchup does have a David v. Goliath feel, there are multiple reasons to think Atalanta has a genuine shot against the French titans. Unlike Ligue 1, Serie A did end up playing out the rest of the season, meaning they have played considerably more competitive fixtures recently than PSG have. Furthermore, Atalanta have shown they can put goals past just about anyone, notching a stunning 98 goals in the Italian season, and if that wasn't enough, PSG will now be without fearsome striker duo Edinson Cavani, who has departed the club and Kylian Mbappe, out with an ankle injury, as well as talismanic midfielder Marco Verratti, also out due to injury.

That said, Paris have such a wealth and talent advantage that they're the kind of club that can overcome personnel issues, even ones as large as this one, as they showed by grinding out recent French Cup and Coupe de la Ligue titles over Saint-Etienne and Lyon. In addition, Atalanta has their own significant injury concern, with star striker and lead goalscorer Josip Iliçić likely out. They certainly have other players that can score, but it's a massive loss both physically and emotionally. I really want to believe in the Nerazzurri, but rationally, it's hard for me to see PSG not pulling this out.

The Pick: Paris Saint-Germain, 2-1

RB Leipzig vs. Atlético Madrid

Round of 16: RB Leipzig def. Tottenham Hotspur 4-0, Atlético Madrid def. Liverpool 4-2

This quarterfinal pits the two teams that upset last year's finalists against each other. RB Leipzig, the enigma of the Bundesliga, reached their first-ever quarterfinal by dismissing last year's runners-up Tottenham Hotspur with ease. They will be trying to play the role of "non-traditional power punching above their weight in the Champions League" as long as they can, but nobody has played that role better over the last decade than their next opponents.

Under Diego Simone, Atlético Madrid haven't yet scaled the Champions League winners' podium, but they've come remarkably close twice, in 2014 and 2016. They've also reached the quarterfinal stage 4 other times, this year included. All this, despite playing in a league so thoroughly dominated by rivals Real Madrid and Barcelona.

It's a bit harder to foresee this particular iteration of Atlético crashing the party. They don't have the likes of Antoine Griezmann, Juanfran, or Diego Godín, and there's a world of difference between 2020 Diego Costa and 2014 Diego Costa. They stumbled to a distant 3rd-place finish in La Liga, and now are without two significant players (Šime Vrsaljko and Angel Correa) for the foreseeable future, due to positive coronavirus tests. That being said, their Round of 16 triumph against defending champions Liverpool showed that 'Simeoneball' can still beat even the best clubs on their day, and without Chelsea-bound Timo Werner on their squad, I'm not sure RB Leipzig are going to have the ruthless attacking player(s) needed to break down that compact, patient backline.

The Pick: Atlético Madrid, 1-0 (A.E.T.)

Barcelona vs. Bayern Munich

Round of 16: Barcelona def. Napoli 4-2, Bayern Munich def. Chelsea 7-1

Having nearly all the underdogs on one side of the bracket means you're guaranteed at least one heavyweight quarterfinal matchup, and here it is. Barcelona and Bayern Munich don't only represent two of the historically successful and storied European clubs, they represent two sides that were identified as favorites coming into this tournament. Yet, only one can even reach the semifinals, and there is a distinct possibility neither one will reach the Final.

We'll start with Bayern Munich, who are surely the favorites entering this match. The German champions spent the days since the Bundesliga restart barnstorming through all opponents to win the DFB Pokal and run away with their 8th consecutive Bundesliga title. Their run since June 2020 is representative of how they've looked in this Champions League competition as well. Der FCB has played 8 matches in this tournament and has won every. single. one. Not only that, they've won by a country mile: they've compiled a goal differential of +25 to date, winning by an average scoreline of 4-1. It would be truly shocking to see this team exit at the quarterfinal stage.

That said, Barcelona are not exactly used to being the underdog, though they will be here. The Catalan giants have 5 European titles to their name, and have in fact reached that Final match more recently than Bayern (though that last appearance came 5 years ago). Their form since the resumption of play in June has been nothing short of disappointing, as they stumbled several times down the stretch and ceded their league lead to archrivals Real Madrid. Their earlier loss to Bilbao in the Copa del Rey rendered it highly possible this team finishes 2019-20 trophy-less, a fact that seems difficult to believe.

But as we saw in Barca's comprehensive defeat of Napoli, sometimes current form has no bearing on a single match, and if you're trying to topple the World's hottest team, it helps to have one of history's all-time greatest players on your side. It may be that Lionel Messi and the other veterans of this Barcelona side have used the interim period between officially losing La Liga and the Napoli match to refocus all their energy on winning this Champions League title. Still, though I expect a more inspired effort from Barca than we've seen in recent months, I just can't comprehend predicting anyone but Bayern to win at this time.

The Pick: Bayern Munich, 3-2

Manchester City vs. Lyon

Round of 16: Manchester City def. Real Madrid 4-2, Lyon def. Juventus 2-2 (1-0 on away goals)

I mentioned this at the outset, but I did have a feeling that a Champions League that’s been full of unexpected twists had one more surprise result left in its Round of 16. What I didn’t expect was for that surprise result to be Lyon, France’s 7th-placed team, beating out Italian champions and consistent Champions League contenders Juventus. Sure, it came as a result of the away goals tiebreaker. Sure, that away goal came as a result of a dodgy penalty call. But the overall tie was no fluke: the high-flying Lyonnaise attack wasn’t intimidated by the vaunted Juventus back line, and the former’s defense held strong over the two legs to get the needed result.

Lyon’s reward for engineering a great escape from the group stage and then scoring one of the tournament’s biggest upsets? A date with Manchester City, one of the World’s richest and most talented clubs. City were likely disappointed by a distant 2nd-place finish in the Premier League this season, but considering they had won the league the two years prior, and Liverpool had for all intents and purposes wrapped it up this season by December, it’s not too much of a stretch to theorize that the Champions League has been the trophy they’re really interested in chasing this year. Whether that fact is true or not, their European performance has been mightily impressive, notching 4 comfortable wins and 2 draws in the group stage and then impressively winning both legs against 13-time champions Real Madrid, despite losing the form advantage prior to the 2nd leg.

Is Manchester City a stone-cold lock? No. And the reason is that not only has Lyon punched above its weight coming into this match, they’ve done it against almost this very team: in the 2018-19 tournament, Lyon was the only team City played that they couldn’t beat, earning 4 points from 2 matches against the English champions. More importantly, Man City’s downfall this year has been dropping random matches against inferior opponents, due to some combination of lack of focus and shoddy defense. Coming off a big win over Madrid, and against a “lesser” team that has a rejuvenated attack, one would not be faulted for thinking the conditions might be ripe for another upset of Manchester City. Sadly, though, I do think Lyon’s exciting run ends here. The gap between the teams in depth and managerial acumen can’t be overstated, and though the name Lyon may not be excite City players as much as RealMadrid, I think their Premier League and FA Cup failures will make them that much sharper in this competition.

The Pick: Manchester City, 3-1