Grammy Preview: Album of the Year Contestants
Though the nominees for the 2019 Grammy Awards will not be unveiled until 2 months from now, the year of eligibility ended two weeks ago, meaning everything released from October 2018 to the end of August is eligible to be nominated in the next ceremony, and nothing after will be recognized until the 2020 ceremony. If you feel like this eligibility year is ending too soon, that's probably because it is in fact ending over a month earlier than it typically does. In the wake of the Oscars announcing they will be moving up their ceremony to early February, the Grammys have also moved their ceremony up, pushing the nomination and consideration timeline up.
What this means is that, yes, for the 2nd straight year, we are officially in the period of eligibility in which Taylor Swift wins a disgusting amount of Grammys again. What this also means is that on top of the number of noteworthy releases that have come in 2019, there are some big names that dropped music last Fall/Winter who are also in the mix for the sweepstakes. It will undoubtedly be a crowded field for every category, but here is an overlook at the contenders for what is largely considered the top Grammy of them all, the Grammy's 'Best Picture', if you will: Album Of The Year.
Surefire Candidates
Lover // Taylor Swift
So yes, let me first admit that 3 of the last 4 albums I have labelled "Surefire Candidates," including both last year, have gone on to then not get nominated at the Grammys. Let me second admit that one of those I whiffed on last year was Reputation, by none other than Taylor Swift. That being said, I'm confident that T-Swizzle won't be denied two years in a row. My expectation last year was based largely on the precedent of the Grammys being obsessed with the pop star, awarding her the Album of the Year twice, making her the first woman to accomplish that feat. However, in all fairness, 2017's Reputation received somewhat mixed reviews, and came at a time when Swift was undergoing the first real blow to her-- well, reputation. 2019's Lover, released just before the Grammy cutoff deadline is her best-reviewed yet, and is coming out amidst a serious image rehab. Newly politically-active Taylor Swift is a much more palatable choice to award Grammys to than "Just got caught lying on tape about Kanye" Taylor Swift is.
WHEN WE WE ALL FALL ASLEEP, WHERE DO WE GO? // Billie Eilish
Few people took the music world by storm this year like Billie Eilish did. Eilish, the 17-year old musical offspring of Lorde, Lana del Rey and a Trap demon, saw Internet popularity fuel her meteoric rise to the mainstream. It was reminiscent of the recent, rapid explosion of Post Malone. The good news for Eilish? Malone's Beerbongs and Bentleys was nominated for Album of the Year last year. The better news? Unlike Malone, Billie has a critical acclaim to mach her popularity with the youths. Her style might be too obscure to win her the prize, but I would be shocked if she were not among the nominees.
Contenders
Cuz I Love You // Lizzo
Speaking of 2019 meteoric rises: Lizzo! The soulful singer/rapper (who also rocks a classical flute) has been making great music for quite some time, but exploded onto the scene this year behind megahits "Juice" and "Truth Hurts." She'll almost surely haul in some Grammy nominations in the genre awards, and likely even in the Record of the Year or Song of the Year field, if not both. The question is, will Cuz I Love You score an album nom? With a Metacritic score of 82 to match her blooming popularity, it's a very strong candidate.
GIRL // Maren Morris
Maren Morris, whose Zedd collaboration "The Middle" was a double nominee for Song of the Year and Record of the Year last year went back to the arena country-pop sound that saw her burst on to the scene in 2016 with Hero. Morris' sophomore release had a more mixed reception, but given her status as one of the future starlets of Country, she makes for an intriguing candidate should the academy desire to build off of Kacey Musgraves' triumph last year, and include a Country nominee in the 2019 field.
Happiness Begins // Jonas Brothers
Sandwiched between the early-2019 dominance of Ariana Grande and late summer one-two punch of Lizzo and Taylor Swift, it's easy to forget the mania that the JoBros' return caused. The Grammys are often a sucker for storylines, and there are few better than the reconciliation and reunion of the Jonas Brothers. Oh and by the way, Happiness Begins was a pretty solid pop album, too, their best-reviewed to date.
Heard It In A Past Life // Maggie Rogers
Maggie Rogers was "discovered" by many a few years ago, when as a student at NYU, a video of Pharrell reacting to her first song "Alaska" went viral. Rogers has had a fanbase seemingly waiting for her big break ever since then, and finally they (/we) were treated to her first full-length album at the beginning of this year. Though Heard It In A Past Life didn't receive quite the critical acclaim many expected it to, Maggie is still the darling of the next generation of folk pop. Given her ability to integrate non-traditional folk into mainstream radio, she is a very original candidate for this award.
Homecoming: The Live Album // Beyoncé
Stop me if you've heard this before: Beyoncé has one of the best-reviewed albums of the year. Yes, just like in 2014 and in 2016, Queen B's solo release wasn't just a commercial smash, it also has garnered some of the best reviews of any album from music critics. The difference this time is that it's not a "new" release: rather, Homecoming is the star's first live album, a recording of her history-making Coachella set. It's been heralded by some as the "greatest concert album ever" so that, plus Beyoncé's megastar status generally indicates good nomination odds. In fact, I'd say she were a bonafide lock, but I'm already gunshy after mistakenly labelling her as such last year (for hers and Jay-Z's Everything Is Love), plus a live album is a wildcard.
"Let's Rock" // The Black Keys
Okay, it didn't generate quite as much buzz as the Jonas Brothers' reunion, but the return of the Black Keys was also a pretty significant musical storyline. The rock duo from Akron were selling out arenas across the country less than a decade ago, but after a mixed reception to their early 2014 album Turn It Blue, went on hiatus. "Let's Rock" didn't generate as much critical buzz as previous works, but was still well-reviewed, and lest you think the band's time in the sun has passed, know they've still got some swing: lead single "Lo/Hi" was the first song to ever simultaneously top the Adult Alternative, Mainstream Rock, and Alternative Songs chart in the USA.
Norman Fucking Rockwell! // Lana Del Rey
Lana Del Rey, the unapologetically crass New York crooner with a West Coast style, has always been decently well-respected by critics, and popular among a decently-sized niche audience. With Norman Fucking Rockwell!, Del Rey has foregone some of the more traditional kitschy pop ballads that boosted her popularity in favor of hard-hitting dystopian tracks. The result was one of the best reviewed albums of 2019, with a Metacritic score of 88. For the first time in her career, Lana may be a genuine Grammy contender. Although, honest question: if this is nominated, what are the Grammys going to do with their censors? Just bleep out her album's name any time it's up for an award?
A Star Is Born // Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga
Though the film was released in time for this year's Oscar ceremony, the accompanying soundtrack for A Star Is Born missed last year's Grammy eligibilty cutoff. The film was a nationwide sensation and, unsurprisingly, its music was perhaps its strongest aspect. The soundtrack's lead single "Shallow" was a double nominee for both Song and Record of the Year last year, and with the Black Panther album's nomination for this very award last year, it's clear the academy are fans of film soundtracks. Bradley Cooper, the actor, has a very real shot at an Album of the Year Grammy.
thank u, next // Ariana Grande
2018 was the year of Ariana, which is what made the snub of last year's Sweetener all the more stunning. However, her influence carried over into 2019 thanks to a surprising follow-up album, released in February of this year. At one point in the early months, Grande had three different chart-topping singles out at the same time, becoming the first female in history to top herself in the music charts. She's still the new queen of pop, is what I'm trying to say; will the 2nd time (in as many years) be the charm for her Grammy nomination odds?
When I Get Home // Solange
Stop me if you've heard this before: one of the few albums nearly as acclaimed as Beyoncé's is one by her sister, Solange. Just like in 2016, when A Seat At The Table almost matched Lemonade in plaudits, Solange Knowles has one of the buzziest albums of the year in music circles. When I Get Home is certainly more experimental and niche than her 2016 album, which was relegated to just the "Urban Contemporary" category at the Grammys. But will the academy really pass up an artist with as much name recognition as she has and an album as acclaimed as hers again?
Longshots
Amidst The Chaos // Sara Bareilles
Assume Form // James Blake
The Big Day // Chance The Rapper
Father Of The Bride // Vampire Weekend
Free Spirit // Khalid
I Am Easy To Find // The National
Igor // Tyler The Creator
The Lion King: The Gift // Beyoncé and Various Artists
Ventura // Anderson.Paak
Western Stars // Bruce Springsteen
Prediction Time
Before I get into my predictions, it's important to point out a few factors that will affect how the nominees will look. The most important one is that, as of last year, the Grammys have extended the field for all the major general awards to 8 nominees, from the usual 5. This (presumably) allows them to include and accomodate a wider variety of genres, though that was also the thought behind the Oscars expanding their Best Picture field, and that change has mostly seen a higher number of the same kind of nominees.
To be fair to the Grammys, an award show that I've lambasted year after year, the results from the first year of the extended field were a remarkable success. All General fields saw thoroughly deserving winners, and the nominees reflected remarkable diversity in genre, race, gender, and even popularity. The flip side to that is: I have no idea what to expect this year. My "automatic bid per genre" theory sort of panned out last year, with Rap and Hip/Hop, Country, Pop, R&B and even Folk Rock all represented in the Album of the Year field, but many of the individual nominees I would not have seen coming, and a couple I very much expected to see were not among them.
In addition to the two shoo-ins I've already determined, it's hard for me to see Lizzo being left out, and I have to imagine Beyoncé's album gives the academy a chance to once again appease the Beyhive and also have a concert album among its nominees, something that hasn't happened in quite some time. Maggie Rogers, I think, fills the role Brandi Carlile held amongst the nominees last year...i.e. "gifted alternative folksy songwriter." That, and her youthful appeal make her a solid guess to be included.
That makes 5 I feel fairly confident about, all solo female artists. That fact leads me to believe that Jonas Brothers, as a male group, might be better positioned to snag the mass appeal position many expect Ariana Grande to secure. I just feel like between Sweetener's snub last year and Grande's outspoken disapproval of the way her cancelled Grammy performance was handled, the academy is not interested in her. I feel fairly confident in A Star Is Born as a candidate, too, making it two straight years where the most trendy film soundtrack of the year gets a nomination. For the last open spot, I wanted to draw from my "Longshots"; for as far back as I can think, the Album of the Year category has had at least one nominee that came out of left field. (H.E.R. in 2018, Childish Gambino in 2017, Sturgill Simpson in 2016, Alabama Shakes in 2015, Beck in 2014...) This year, I have a sneaking suspicion that nominee might be The National. The indie rockers have been beloved in the music industry for over a decade, and the Grammys have started to take notice, awarding them Best Alternative Album amongst a loaded nominee field two years ago. With I Am Easy To Find being typically well-received, it feels like this year could be their surprise Grammy breakthrough. So, my final prediction-- in alphabetical order-- is:
Cuz I Love You, Lizzo
Happiness Begins, Jonas Brothers
Heard It In A Past Life, Maggie Rogers
Homecoming: The Live Album, Beyoncé
I Am Easy To Find, The National
Lover, Taylor Swift
A Star Is Born, Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga
WHEN WE WE ALL FALL ASLEEP, WHERE DO WE GO?, Billie Eilish
The following just missed my cut, and if nominated, are in the tier of "Gahhhh, I knew I should have predicted that":
Ventura, Anderson.Paak
thank u, next, Ariana Grande
"Let's Rock", The Black Keys
Free Spirit, Khalid
If you have thoughts and/or predictions, leave them in the comments!