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Your Necessary 2021 Oscars Viewing Guide


In preparation for tonight's Oscars, we Couch film critics have provided a rundown of the major awards. Do not take this to mean we don't think highly of the nominees for the likes of Best Short Film and Best Sound Editing, but rather that they will likely receive less attention, and also that we are-- or at least a few of us (me) -- are considerably less informed about those nominees than we are for the following 10 categories. This Oscars has several slam dunk categories tonight, including the biggest one of them all, and as a result, all four of us are still fairly confident in these selections. After such a turbulent and unprecedented year, though, the night is sure to include at least some drama and uncertainty. More than one acting category, for example, is at their most competitive in years. Who knows who will take top honors? We'll find out shortly, at least!

I will give a brief rundown on these 'major' categories, and as you will see, fellow film nuts Daniel Baas, Christian Becker and Sierra Slaughter have joined me to let you know who was snubbed, who really should win, who could play spoiler, and who will ultimately win no matter how we feel. Enjoy, and happy viewing tonight!


Best Original Song


  • "Fight For You" by D'Mile and H.E.R., Judas and the Black Messiah

  • "Hear My Voice" by Daniel Pemberton, The Trial of the Chicago 7

  • "Husavik" by Rickard Göransson, Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga

  • "Io sí (Seen)" by Diane Warren, The Life Ahead

  • "Speak Now" by Leslie Odom, Jr. and Sam Ashworth, One Night In Miami...


The lack of a true star-powered frontrunner like we saw the last couple years in Elton John's and Lady Gaga's tunes have made this one of the more competitive Best Song races in a while. Most media outlets have trended towards "Speak Now," the post-credits song from One Night In Miami... (and Hamilton) star Leslie Odom, Jr., but Golden Globe winner "Io Sí" did beat out all these nominees already, and would give famous songwriter Diane Warren her first Oscar in 13 tries (the sole reason Sierra is cheering for it). But, don't count out "Husavik," the little song that could; it seems outrageous that a song featuring Will Ferrell from a movie named Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga could win an Oscar, but it's an earnestly heartfelt tune, and the only one of the nominees that actually takes place within the action of the film. It also has seen an enormous amount of lobbying from a certain small town in Iceland.

 

Best Original Score


  • Terence Blanchard, Da 5 Bloods

  • James Newton Howard, News of the World

  • Emile Mosseri, Minari

  • Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, Mank

  • Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross. and Jon Batiste, Soul


Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross are one of the most respected film-scoring tandems in the industry, and the 2011 Best Original Score winners are double nominees and frontrunners tonight. There's a chance their 'old Hollywood' score for Mank could deliver a win, but all signs point to their collaboration with Jon Batiste on the Pixar flick Soul taking the award. It's a delightful blend of jazz and electropop, but pour one out for Emile Mosseri's gorgeous Minari score, as well as for Ludwig Göransson's widly original Tenet soundtrack, which didn't even garner a nomination.

 

Best Adapted Screenplay


  • Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (Sacha Baron Cohen, Peter Baynham, Jena Friedman, Anthony Hines, Lee Kern, Dan Mazer, Erica Rivinoja and Dan Swimer)

  • The Father (Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller)

  • Nomadland (Chloé Zhao)

  • One Night In Miami... (Kemp Powers)

  • The White Tiger (Ramin Bahrami)


Increasingly in recent years, the eventual Best Picture winner has also won a Screenplay award, making this and Best Original Screenplay somewhat of harbingers for the main award on the night. Unsurprisingly, then, Chloé Zhao and Best Picture frontrunner Nomadland are the favorites to take this home tonight. But it this is not as clear-cut, as it may seem; although a Borat victory would be the upset to end all upsets, the mockumentary did recently get a stunning Adapted Screenplay victory at the Writers Guild of America Awards. And the two plays-turned-movies, The Father and One Night In Miami.... are both acclaimed films whose writing was specifically singled out. If the Academy feels like spreading the wealth around, it would not be surprising at all to see them give The Father, a film they clearly love, an award here.

 

Best Original Screenplay


  • Judas and the Black Messiah (Will Berson and Shaka King)

  • Minari (Lee Isaac Chung)

  • Promising Young Woman (Emerald Fennell)

  • Sound of Metal (Abraham Marder and Darius Marder)

  • The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Aaron Sorkin)

Speaking of the Screenplay-to-Best Picture pipeline, all 5 nominees here are also Best Picture nominees. The early favorite was Golden Globe winner The Trial of the Chicago 7, and the industry adoration for Aaron Sorkin does make him a strong contender still. But Emerald Fennell, who is likely to lose out on Best Director for her film Promising Young Woman, has steadily been picking up more wins on the awards circuit for her screenplay, and the tea leaves certainly seem to be trending toward an Oscar victory for her as well. I personally am going to stick with my 'spreading the wealth' theory: it's hard for me to see Minari going winless on the night, and surprise though it may be, I think this might be where the Academy honors the beautiful film.

 

Best Supporting Actor

  • Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7

  • Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah

  • Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night In Miami...

  • Paul Raci, Sound of Metal

  • Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah

This is a positively loaded field of nominees this year; the fact that Sacha Baron Cohen's depiction of Abbie Hoffman is definitely the weakest nominee here says a whole lot more about the quality of the field than it does about his performance, which was quite good. Daniel Kaluuya's marvelous performance as Black Panther leader Fred Hampton has been the consistent frontrunner, but the bizarre inclusion of his co-star Lakeith Stanfield here-- as opposed to the Best Actor award --could throw a spanner in the works for anyone who may have been more drawn to Stanfield's performance in the same film. If there is to be an upset, Paul Raci, fresh off a surprising win at the Independent Spirit Awards, might be best poised to win for his wonderfully muted performance in Sound of Metal. As you can see above, said upset would be just fine with the Couch crew.

 

Best Supporting Actress

  • Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

  • Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy

  • Olivia Colman, The Father

  • Amanda Seyfried, Mank

  • Youn Yuh-jung, Minari


What had all the makings of a very competitive Supporting Actress race suddenly looks to be Youn Yuh-Jung's to lose. The legendary South Korean actress wasn't even nominated for the Golden Globe, but her performance in Minari has picked up consecutive wins from the Austin and New York Film Critics, BAFTAs, and Independent Spirit Awards. That said, despite the critical backlash to Hillbilly Elegy, don't count out Glenn Close; the Academy loves to give career recognition awards, and they might consider Supporting Actress "insignificant" enough of a category to risk the controversy in granting Close her first ever Oscar. Though I loved Yuh-Jung, and always love Olivia Colman, I would be delighted if Maria Bakalova's Cinderella story culminated with a mold-busting victory tonight. And speaking of actresses in a comedy, one of the many ways the delightful rom-com Palm Springs was snubbed was in this category, for Milloti's brilliantly snarky performance.

 

Best Actor


  • Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal

  • Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

  • Anthony Hopkins, The Father

  • Gary Oldman, Mank

  • Steven Yeun, Minari

You'd be hard-pressed to find a more loaded field of acting nominees than this year's Best Supporting Actor field, but this Best Actor field might just take it. All signs point to Chadwick Boseman, who tragically passed away from cancer last fall, winning a posthumous honor, and it's hard to argue he doesn't deserve it for his electric turn in Ma Rainey's Black Bottom. But it's hard not to wonder, without the obvious emotional pull a vote for Boseman has, how much more support there would be behind Riz Ahmed's tour de force in Sound of Metal, or Anthony Hopkins' devastating performance in The Father, or even Steven Yeun's quietly brilliant turn in Minari. I think all of us probably would swap Gary Oldman out of the field in an ideal world, but we vary on who would take his place. My vote is for the overlooked, under-appreciated Kingsley Ben-Adir for his magnificent portrayal of Malcolm X.

 

Best Actress


  • Viola Davis, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

  • Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday

  • Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman

  • Frances McDormand, Nomadland

  • Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman

This is one of the most compelling Best Actress races in recent history. After taking top honors at the Sundance Film Festival, Vanessa Kirby opened as the early favorite. Since then, however, all 4 of the other nominees have split honors on the awards circuit, with Andra Day winning at the Golden Globes, Viola Davis at the SAG Awards, Frances McDormand at the BAFTAs, and Carey Mulligan at the Critics Choice and Independent Spirit Awards. Accordingly, there hasn't been a whole lot of critical consensus on who the frontrunner truly is, although Viola Davis and Frances McDormand are the names that seem to be popping up the most. However, in a compelling turn of events, all 4 of us have gone with Carey Mulligan pulling the upset. The Oscars like to reward new blood, and Mulligan is a perfect blend of "already esteemed actress" and "has never won this award before," and is also the lifeblood of one of the most nominated films on the night.

 

Best Director


  • Lee Isaac Chung, Minari

  • Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman

  • David Fincher, Mank

  • Thomas Vinterberg, Another Round

  • Chloé Zhao, Nomadland

This award, of all the major awards, seems to be the biggest slam dunk of the night, with Chloé Zhao thoroughly cleaning up on the awards circuit for her work Nomadland. It's an abnormal slam dunk, given the Academy's horrible track record of recognizing both female directors and non-white directors, but Zhao would be a deserving winner; her fingerprints are all over the beautiful, authentic film. You can see how much of a favorite she is by the fact that none of us agree on who else could even win: Daniel Baas has gone with Mank's David Fincher, Sierra with Minari's Lee Isaac Chung, myself with Fennell for Promising Young Woman, and Christian refusing to even entertain an alternative outcome. We do all agree that at least one director was snubbed, though; I personally was sad to see first-time director Regina King not recognized for her feat with One Night In Miami....

 

Best Picture


  • The Father

  • Judas and the Black Messiah

  • Mank

  • Minari

  • Nomadland

  • Promising Young Woman

  • Sound of Metal

  • The Trial of the Chicago 7


Compared to recent years, there is a considerable amount of drama and intrigue in tonight's ceremony. But it doesn't seem that drama will extend to the night's biggest honor. Nomadland is not only the critical darling of all the nominees, but the runaway favorite, considering it has won the Best Picture equivalent at almost every show on this year's awards circuit. That said, ever since the Academy's change to preferentially-ranked voting, we have seen upset victories for Best Picture almost as often as we've seen the perceived frontrunner win. Furthermore, Nomadland is far from a conventional favorite; it's a low-budget art film, a virtual documentary. Just last year, Parasite took top honors after spending almost the entire awards circuit losing to 1917. I say all this not to lead you to believe anyone but Nomadland will win top honors tonight, but only to say that it's possible. And in the event of an upset, we have differing theories on who would be best poised to sneak up and win. Daniel and Christian both are tabbing early favorite Trial of the Chicago 7, while Sierra and I both think Minari and Promising Young Woman could be quietly sneaking up on an upset win. A few things I think I can say all four of us do agree on: Sound of Metal would be a deserving winner, and Palm Springs would have been a deserving nominee.

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