World Cup 2022: Ranking The Groups By Difficulty
We’re now well into the month that this year's FIFA World Cup should be taking place, were it not for the fact that the host nation is a tiny desert state whose corrupt means of obtaining hosting rights necessitated the tournament being moved to the winter for the first time ever. No, I'm not salty. Yes, I'm over it. Why do you ask?
Anywho, whereas my first mental flash-forward of World Cup discussion centered around the United States' past performances, specifically, my continued copium has been found in analyzing the eight groups for the upcoming Cup. Although the group stage draw was held all the way back in March, the search to hammer down the "Group of Death" is on my mind for two reasons: one, at the time of the draw, not all spots were booked. In the last couple weeks, though, Wales, Australia and Costa Rica won their playoff qualifiers to claim the last three seats at the tournament. And second, on Thursday, the latest FIFA rankings dropped, updating the world standings for the first time in nearly two months.
So now that we know all 32 teams competing in the 2022 World Cup, and their up-to-date FIFA world ranking, we can dive into the obvious questions like, which group is the hardest? Which is the easiest? Which is sneakily competitive? Which is the most top-heavy? Much of the post-draw conversation concurred that there wasn't really a 'Group of Death' like the ones of yore. And that's not a bad take! The change that FIFA implemented before the 2018 World Cup to separate the four pots for the draw by pure ranking alone, instead of by geography, meant we would no longer run the risk of seeing groups like 2014's Group D (which had #6 Uruguay, #9 Italy and #10 England all grouped together...and then ultimately got topped by #31 Costa Rica), nor 2006's Group E (#2 Czech Republic, #8 USA, and #10 Italy...two of whom ultimately got topped by #50 Ghana). But is the take totally accurate? Just because the teams from each pot had more clear separation from each other doesn't mean that some, let alone just one, groups could clearly be more difficult than others, right?
To answer those questions, I think we need to examine group difficulty from two angles: quality and competitiveness. Traditionally, pundits and fans alike have bestowed the "Group of Death" label on the group, or sometimes groups, who have the most eye-popping names, whether that's just the countries themselves who have earned respect, or the star players in that group. I've always thought that only tells part of the story, though; to me, group of "death" would mean a group that is competitive from top to bottom. For example, I was irked when in the 2010 World Cup, most everyone referred to Group G as the Group of Death. Sure, it had Brazil, Cristiano Ronaldo's Portugal, and Dider Drogba's Ivory Coast. But it also had North Korea, who was-- as you might expect --far and away the worst team at the tournament. So while half of each group's difficulty rating is based on the sheer quality of the teams in question, the other half of my rating format factors in the average distance from team to team within the group, to address the question of just how competitive each group will be as well.
One point of clarification, and two caveats: since FIFA rankings, as all rankings do, start at the top with 1 and go up from there, and since a smaller range indicates MORE competitiveness, the lower a group's "Death Rating" is, the more difficult it is. And the two caveats are to acknowledge two imperfections: first off, this is all based on the highly flawed, often confusing FIFA rankings. Not only that, it's based on rankings of these countries 5 months before the tournament even begins. It's a flawed system, to be sure, but it's the best one we have for objective measurement on a global scale.
All of that being said, here are this year's World Cup groups, in ascending order of difficulty from the Group of Life to the Group of Death:
8. Group A
#49 Qatar
#44 Ecuador
#18 Senegal
#8 The Netherlands
Mean Rank: 30.0
Median Rank: 31.0
Quality Rating
61.0
Mean Range: 13.67
Median Range: 10.0
Competitiveness Rating
23.67
DEATH RATING
84.67
The hosts may be World Cup debutantes, and may be the third-lowest ranked team in the tournament, but the good news for them is that they were gifted with what is far and away the easiest group in the tournament. It still would be a surprise if Qatar made it out of the group, with The Netherlands, the highest-ranked team out of the 2nd pot, and Senegal, the reigning African champions, will be the heavy favorites. But in a group where the only team that was even in the last tournament (Senegal) hasn't made it to the knockout stages since 2002, you have to say they have a chance, and that's all they need right now.
7. Group H
#9 Portugal
#60 Ghana
#13 Uruguay
#28 South Korea
Mean Rank: 27.5
Median Rank: 20.5
Quality Rating
48.0
Mean Range: 17.0
Median Range: 15.0
Competitiveness Rating
32.0
DEATH RATING
80.00
It's not that Group H is without its quality. Portugal are one of the most talented teams in the tournament, and Uruguay have been knockout stage mainstays at each of the last few World Cups. This group's downfall is its lack of parity. Although Son Heung-Min and Thomas Partey are bona fide stars, these iterations of South Korea and Ghana (the latter in particular) are weak enough that anything other than the two highest-ranked teams progressing would be an enormous surprise in this group.
6. Group C
#3 Argentina
#53 Saudi Arabia
#12 Mexico
#26 Poland
Mean Rank: 23.5
Median Rank: 19.0
Quality Rating
42.5
Mean Range: 16.67
Median Range: 14.0
Competitiveness Rating
30.67
DEATH RATING
73.17
I was a little surprised at how low Group C ended up rating out, because my initial reaction to the draw was glee that the U.S.'s chief rivals faced a tough group. But the fact of the matter is, the intimidation of having Lionel Messi and reigning South American champions Argentina in the group is wholly counteracted by also having Saudi Arabia, who once again figures to be one of the weakest teams in the tournament. And while, on paper at least, Robert Lewandowski and Poland should be formidable foes for the two American nations, their disappointing performances at their last four major tournaments (2006 and 2018 World Cups, Euro 2012 and 2020) advise otherwise.
5. Group G
#1 Brazil
#25 Serbia
#16 Switzerland
#38 Cameroon
Mean Rank: 20.0
Median Rank: 20.5
Quality Rating
40.5
Mean Range: 12.33
Median Range: 13.0
Competitiveness Rating
25.33
DEATH RATING
65.83
What Group G lacks in overall quality, it somewhat atones for in competitiveness. Brazil finishing anything other than in a comfortable first place in this group would be a big surprise. But not every match, if any of them, will be a cake walk, and Switzerland, Serbia and Cameroon, all ranked essentially within 20 spots of each other, could put on quite the race for 2nd place.
4. Group F
#2 Belgium
#43 Canada
#22 Morocco
#15 Croatia
Mean Rank: 20.5
Median Rank: 18.5
Quality Rating
39.0
Mean Range: 13.0
Median Range: 13.0
Competitiveness Rating
26.0
DEATH RATING
65.00
Group F seems to have gotten the least amount of fanfare of any group, and yet it could prove to be sneaky good. The reasons for the lack of attention are obvious: the 2nd and 3rd-place teams from the 2018 Cup are heavy favorites to progress from a group that includes two other opponents with a grand total of 1 knockout stage berths in their history, but even those two favorites aren't backed to do much more in the tournament, given their lack of success since the last World Cup. However, both Morocco and Canada make a serious claim for being better than their FIFA ranking says they are, and all four teams play an attractive, entertaining style of play that almost guarantees a good game.
3. Group D
#4 France
#39 Australia
#10 Denmark
#30 Tunisia
Mean Rank: 20.75
Median Rank: 20.0
Quality Rating
40.75
Mean Range: 11.67
Median Range: 9.0
Competitiveness Rating
20.67
DEATH RATING
61.42
At first glance, there shouldn't be anything here to trouble reigning champions France, so it may be a little surprising that Group D comes in as the third-toughest group of them all. And it's true that if all goes to according to plan, they will be the toast of this group. But not far behind them in quality is a very good Denmark team, who showed just how tough they are in last year's Euro Cup, and while there's a steep drop from Denmark to Tunisia, the cutoff between Top 2 and Bottom 2 isn't quite as harsh as it is in some other groups, such as H or F.
2. Group E
#6 Spain
#34 Costa Rica
#11 Germany
#24 Japan
Mean Rank: 18.75
Median Rank: 17.5
Quality Rating
36.25
Mean Range: 9.33
Median Range: 10.0
Competitiveness Rating
19.33
DEATH RATING
55.58
The most common choice for "Group of Death" in the wake of the draw was this group, Group E, and looking at the names of the four nations, it makes sense. Japan and Costa Rica have traded off surprisingly deep World Cup runs in the last 3 tournaments, and Germany and Spain are two of the biggest names in the sport. True, any outcome other than the European sides claiming 1st and 2nd would be a shock, but still, Spain-Germany figures to be a cracker, as does the "showdown for 2nd place" between the loser of that match and winner of Japan-Costa Rica.
1. Group B
#5 England
#23 Iran
#14 United States
#19 Wales
Mean Rank: 15.25
Median Rank: 16.5
Quality Rating
31.75
Mean Range: 7.67
Median Range: 9.0
Competitiveness Rating
16.67
DEATH RATING
48.42
Perhaps it was because for the uninitiated, Iran might not seem like a particularly fearsome football foe, or perhaps it was because the European qualifier wasn't known to be Wales yet at the time of the draw, but for whatever reason, I heard very little discussion about just how touch Group B could be, even from Stateside media. Sure, I wouldn't blame the English fans for their biennial cockiness based on the names alone: the U.S. infamously missed the last tournament altogether, Wales hasn't been here in nearly 60 years, and Iran, despite their 6 appearances, have exited in the group stage every time. But four years after coming oh-so-close to stunning both Spain and Portugal, this may be the strongest Iran side yet; they're cohesive and well-drilled, and sit just four spots behind a Top 20 team in Wales. Only five spots separate Wales and U.S.A., two teams that are filled with talent playing across Europe's best leagues, and that had a great 2021. And then of course, there's England, a nation who, between their 4th place finish at the 2018 World Cup, and runner-up finish at last year's Euros, might finally be living up to their frontrunner status. Whether you're examining the question from a perspective of "how good are these teams?", or from one of "how evenly-matched are these teams?", there can be no question about this: Group B is the toughest group for any and all of the four nations in it, and it's the best candidate we have for a 2022 Group of Death.
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