The Nominees: Record Of The Year
Can defending champion Billie Eilish pull off the Grammy upset and win her 2nd consecutive Record of the Year?
You’d be forgiven if you forgot that the Grammys were happening ten days from today. After all, it’s two months later than they were originally scheduled to be held, the pandemic that forced its postponement is still going on, we’re somehow entering into both March Madness szn AND Oscar szn all at once, and you’re more than likely still waiting on your stimulus check. But it’s true; we are fast approaching “Music’s biggest night,” as the Grammys like to bill themselves, and as such, we will take this week to do an overview of the biggest awards of the night, culminating in a general predictions piece on the day of. A reminder, first of all, that each of the General Awards have seen their field expanded from 5 nominees to 8. First one up: Record of the Year.
Record of the Year is one of two awards to serve as a prize for a song in a general capacity, rather than a genre field (like Best Pop Performance, or Best Rap Song, etc.). The other, of course, is Song Of The Year. Annually, the inevitable question from reasonable people-- myself included --is, what is the difference between the two? To be honest, I've never really known a good answer, so, from the horse's mouth: "The Record Of The Year category recognizes the artist’s performance as well as the overall contributions of the producer(s), recording engineer(s) and/or mixer(s) if other than the artist. The Song Of The Year category recognizes the songwriter(s)."
Essentially, I think what this is saying is that Record Of The Year is more a trophy for the general production of a song, while Song Of The Year is more about the bare-bones music and lyrics. That hasn't necessarily held up when considering the last several winners: Adele's "Hello" beat Beyoncé's "Formation" for both awards, despite the latter having unequivocally more impressive production. In 2018, Bruno Mars' "24K Magic" beat out the extremely favored summer smash hit "Despacito." And last year, Billie Eilish's "bad guy" became the 6th track in the last decade to win both awards, which provided little clarity. So, despite what the award's stated intentions are, voting might simply come down to which one of the big radio hits the voters liked the most. All that being said, here are the nominees, in order from least to most likely to win, according to odds from GoldDerby.com.
"Colors" - Black Pumas
Odds: 21-2
Peak Chart Position (General): 37th
Peak Chart Position (Rock): 21st
Daniel's Production Value Ranking: 8/10
There are surprise Grammy nominees, and then there are STUNNING nominees. Black Pumas, triple nominees on the night, definitely fall into the latter category. The little-known blues rock duo from Austin, Texas followed up on last year's surprise Best New Artist nomination with a nod for both Record and Album of the Year, as well as Best American Roots Performance. But honestly, this nomination, for lead single "Colors," might be the most surprising of all; despite Album of the Year being an arguably more prestigious award, it's not unheard of, especially for there to be a surprise lesser-known nominee among the bunch (H.E.R., anyone?). Record of the Year, however, almost always sees a slew of radio smashes competing for the award, and even in the rare instances where an underground song crashes the field, it tends to be tied to a big name in the music world, such as Bon Iver or Brandi Carlile. "Colors," which didn't even crack the Top 20 in genre-specific charts, has to be the biggest longshot contender of all the General awards this year. That said, it'd be a happy surprise if it won. It's one hell of a song, with an addicting, slow-building soulful groove.
"Rockstar" - DaBaby featuring Roddy Ricch
Odds: 19-2
Peak Chart Position (General): 1st
Peak Chart Position (R&B/Hip-Hop): 1st
Daniel's Production Value Ranking: 7/10
It's no surprise at all to see DaBaby and Roddy Ricch among the nominees for Record of the Year, as both rappers had a breakout year in 2020. It is a bit of a surprise that it's for this song, though. Roddy Ricch's solo single "The Box" was much more ubiquitous, and despite "Rockstar" being DaBaby's biggest song to date, the melodic rap is a little out of his element, as his hits "Suge" and "BOP" seemed a little more ready-made for Grammy recognitions. Still, it did spend several weeks as the biggest song in America, and though its production isn't anything too special, it's the exact kind of beat that features prominently on the radio these days, and the little Spanish guitar that runs throughout is a nice touch.
"Say So" - Doja Cat
Odds: 19-2
Peak Chart Position (General): 1st
Peak Chart Position (R&B/Hip-Hop): 1st
Daniel's Production Value Ranking: 10/10
If you listened to the radio, whether voluntarily or involuntarily, at any point during the summer months of 2020, you inevitably heard "Say So." Singer and rapper Doja Cat has been on a meteoric rise since late 2019, and, buoyed by its popularity on the social app TikTok, "Say So" was the zenith of that rise, topping the charts nationwide for several weeks. Regardless of how you might feel about the divisive artist, it's not hard to see why her hit song was such a popular choice both on TikTok and on the airwaves over summer. It's a breezy, catchy, infectious song that makes you want to just dance and harken back to happier times.
"BLACK PARADE" - Beyoncé
Odds: 15-2
Peak Chart Position (General): 37th
Peak Chart Position (Rhythmic): 18th
Daniel's Production Value Ranking: 7/10
It's difficult to describe any material Beyoncé puts out as a "surprise" Grammy contender. She's one of the most revered and recognizable figures in the World, period, let alone the music world. Still, the Grammy recognition for "Black Parade," nominated for both this and Song of the Year, was pretty surprising. It's a single unattached to any new album, released in the middle of a chaotic summer, without any music video and by Beyoncé's lofty standards, relatively little radio exposure. But it's cool to see this song of hers, released explicitly in response to a summer of racial protests and civil rights marches, recognized; the feel of "Black Parade" is fundamentally different from, and considerably less radio-ready than Beyoncé's usual hits, but features an impressive blend of traditionally black musical styles, which I'm going to guess was more important to Queen B than anything else.
"Circles" - Post Malone
Odds: 7-1
Peak Chart Position (General): 1st
Peak Chart Position (Rhythmic): 10th
Daniel's Production Value Ranking: 6/10
Believe it or not, this is Post Malone's 3rd consecutive nomination for this prestigious award. After having failed to win the last two years, is the third time the charm for the genre-blending artist? It's hard to imagine "Circles" doing what the considerably bigger "Rockstar" and "Sunflower" couldn't do. It had a pretty short stay atop the charts compared to other Post singles, and its pop-rock production is pretty simple and straightforward. That said, it still was a #1 single, and the style, while basic, is smooth and suits Post Malone's more chill vibe well.
"everything i wanted" - Billie Eilish
Odds: 8-1
Peak Chart Position (General): 5th
Peak Chart Position (Alternative): 2nd
Daniel's Production Value Ranking: 10/10
Last year's Record of the Year winner Billie Eilish gets a chance to defend her crown this year with a somewhat surprising nomination for her song "everything i wanted." The late 2019 single was released after her last album, but still all the way back before the singer even collected her last Grammy, and had considerably less fanfare than last year's winner "bad guy." But, in my humble opinion, this song is even better suited to her style. It's a simple, quiet track that perfectly accentuates her emotional, pretty voice (and has a subtly catchy beat). Given the Academy's obvious affinity for Billie-- as well as her brother Finneas, the defending Producer of the Year winner -- a win here for the brother-sister duo wouldn't be all too shocking.
"Savage (Remix)" - Megan Thee Stallion featuring Beyoncé
Odds: 6-1
Peak Chart Position (General): 1st
Peak Chart Position (R&B/Hip-Hop): 1st
Daniel's Production Value Ranking: 10/10
Much of what I said above about Doja Cat and "Say So" could apply to Megan Thee Stallion and "Savage." Much like Doja, fellow rapper Megan had her breakout in 2019 but finds herself nominated for Best New Artist thanks in no small part to her Record of the Year-nominated summer smash single "Savage." What makes Megan the bigger favorite for this award? Well, adding the star power of Beyoncé to the remix of an already popular song doesn't hurt, and sure enough, "Savage" dominated mainstream radio from summer all the way through the end of 2020. But also, it's a masterclass in pop radio production. "Savage" isn't much to write home about in terms of lyricism or musical variety, but thanks to a thumping beat and an infectious little electronic piano in the background, it's an absolutely addictive track.
"Don't Start Now" - Dua Lipa
Odds: 9-2
Peak Chart Position (General): 1st
Peak Chart Position (Pop): 1st
Daniel's Production Value Ranking: 10/10
We just need to be upfront and honest about it: the main reason "Don't Start Now" is the consensus favorite for this award is because of what isn't nominated. The Weeknd's "Blinding Lights" was easily the song of 2020, and its snub for this award is completely inexplicable. That said, even in a universe in which "Blinding Lights" is nominated, "Don't Start Now" would be a strong contender to play spoiler. Dua Lipa ruled pop radio in 2020, and her lead single not only spent a whopping 52 weeks at #1 over the last year-plus, it stayed on the charts for the entirety of 202, the first of Dua's songs to do so. It'd be a deserving winner if it does pull off the victory; much like its accompanying album Future Nostalgia at large, it's a seamless blend of funk, traditional pop, and throwback disco, and a delightful kiss-off anthem to boot.
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