The Nominees: Best New Artist
Ice Spice exploded onto the scene and owned late 2022-Summer 2023. Will the fast-rising sensation be the 2nd female rapper in the last 3 years (and the 7th consecutive female artist) to take home Best New Artist?
You’d be forgiven if you didn't know that the Grammys were happening just two weeks from today. After all, we've had a month filled with awards for movies and TV, with the Golden Globes, Critics Choice Awards, and Emmys all coming in the last couple weeks, it's easy to forget music has their big show amidst this stretch as well! Plus, I don't know if time is moving as fast for you as it is for me, but it sure feels to me like it was just yesterday that a happy but bemused Harry Styles was accepting the Album of the Year Grammy in front of an angry live and online audience that watched Beyoncé and Kendrick Lamar get snubbed yet again. But it’s true; we are fast approaching “Music’s biggest night,” as the Grammys like to bill themselves, and as such, we will take the next couple weeks to do an overview of the biggest awards of the night, culminating in a general predictions piece on the day of the ceremony. First one up: Best New Artist!
A reminder, first of all, that while for many decades, each of the General Awards had fields of 5 nominees, in recent years, we saw those fields expanded to 8. In the last two years, the Academy decided to expand that number to 10 nominees in the General awards, but in the wake of fairly negative reaction to the increased growth, announced this year they were returning to 8.
Best New Artist is one of the most fascinating awards of the night, in part because of its track record, in part because of its criteria. The award has featured many famous winners, such as The Beatles, Crosby Stills & Nash, Cyndi Lauper, Tracy Chapman, Mariah Carey, Alicia Keys, Maroon 5, Adele, Chance the Rapper, Dua Lipa and Billie Eilish. It also has featured some major headscratchers, such as Macklemore beating the likes of Kendrick Lamar and Kacey Musgraves, Esperanza Spalding winning over a field that included Drake and Justin Bieber, and Meghan Trainor beating the likes of...well, anyone. Perhaps relatedly to the second point, there even is a "Best New Artist curse" that is often discussed, only half-jokingly, about the surprisingly common trend of breakout artists who win the award immediately fading back from the public view, never to really make much of an impact on the music scene again. Notably, however, that curse seems to have been broken in recent years. It remains to be seen how things will pan out for last year's shock winner, Samara Joy, but four recent winners of the award are: Dua Lipa, Billie Eilish, Megan Thee Stallion, and Olivia Rodrigo. I'd say those women have done alright for themselves, no?
The award for Best New Artist also generates buzz just about every year because it isn't ever really clear to anyone who isn't in the Recording Academy just what a new artist is. The official guidelines for the award have changed numerous times over the years, but one thing that has stayed consistent, at least in my lifetime, is that there is no real consistency. You can get a selection of nominees some years-- such as this year! --that have a range of 1 album to 4+ albums. The latest official guidelines for the award, according to the Academy, are as follows: "For a new artist who releases, during the Eligibility Year, the first recording which establishes the public identity of that artist." So uh, yeah. Clear as mud? Cool.
All that being said, here are this year's nominees, in order from least to most likely to win, according to odds from GoldDerby.com.
Gracie Abrams
Odds: 19-2
Active Since: 2019
Likely Nominated For: Her album Good Riddance
Biggest Song: "I miss you, I'm sorry"
I'm honestly pretty shocked that Gracie Abrams is the lowest odds-getter as it stands, as she was one of the few names this only-partially-informed music fan had actually heard of at the time the nominations were announced. The daughter of filmmaker/producer J.J. Abrams, Gracie only began releasing music in the last 5 years, fresh off of dropping out of college to focus on music. The indie-pop singer was quickly noticed by producers like Benny Blanco and Aaron Dressner, and has already made waves, even opening for the likes of Taylor Swift and Olivia Rodrigo on their tours in the last couple years. I can definitely agree that she hasn't made enough of a mainstream splash to be considered a favorite in this race. But-- one of the youngest and newest artists in the field? One of the only 'traditional pop' nominees? Nepo baby?? Come on now, you can't count out those credentials in a race like this.
Fred again..
Odds: 9-1
Active Since: 2010
Likely Nominated For: His collaborative album Secret Life, with Brian Eno
Biggest Song: "adore u"
Fred Gibson, or "Fred again..", is an English DJ and producer. The multi-instrumentalist embarked on his music career in 2010, but for a long time that career looked like being a session musician in the studio, and co-writing songs for the likes of Rita Ora, Demi Lovato, and George Ezra. Circa 2020, however, Gibson debuted as Fred again.., and hasn't looked back, releasing 3 solo albums of remixed samples, and 2 collaborative albums with Brian Eno and Headie One, all in the last 4 years. It would make quite a splash if a still relatively obscure DJ from across the pond snagged such a major Grammy win, but if the stunner last year taught us anything, it's that no nominee can be counted out, and perhaps Fred's long list of allies and collaborators in the industry will earn him some pull in this race.
Jelly Roll
Odds: 17-2
Active Since: 2003
Likely Nominated For: His album Whitsitt Chapel
Biggest Song: "Need A Favor"
If you thought Fred again..'s journey from beginning music in 2010 was a wild ride, Jelly Roll would like a word. Birth name Jason DeFord, the Nashville-born artist seems on the surface to be Country through-and-through, but he actually launched his music career some 20 years ago in the world of hip-hop, inspired by the Memphis rap scene. From 2003 to 2011, he dropped some 21 (!!) mixtapes, before slowly beginning to pivot to more of a country sound over the last decade. He found his breakthrough in the genre in late 2021, with his first invite to the Grand Ole Opry. Within a year, he was selling out the Nashville Predators' Bridgestone Arena, and soon after, winning Best New Male Artist at the CMAs. The years logged in the industry is already an inspirational tale, but being the only Country artist in the field carves out even more of a niche for Jelly Roll, if you're looking for a dark horse to back in this race.
The War and Treaty
Odds: 8-1
Active Since: 2014
Likely Nominated For: Their album Lover's Game
Biggest Song: "Are You Ready To Love Me?"
The War and Treaty is comprised of husband and wife duo Michael and Tanya Trotter, and brings powerhouse vocals form both. Both individuals grew up amidst the music scene, with Tanya even working with Janet Jackson on occasion, but have, to quote the kids "maximized their joint slay," to the tune of multiple well-received Americana/soul/bluegrass albums. Much like the previous three nominees discussed, none of the other artists in this field drive in the same lane musically as this duo, and their old-school appeal might help them win the day.
Coco Jones
Odds: 15-2
Active Since: 2010
Likely Nominated For: Her album What I Didn't Tell You, and its lead single "ICU"
Biggest Song: "ICU"
Coco Jones is no stranger to the spotlight: the Nashville-area singer starred on a Disney Channel radio show at the ripe old age of 12, and just a few years later starred in the Disney film Let It Shine. By 2015, however, she broke free from Disney, and set out as a solo artist, dropping 3 different EPs to mild success in the R&B world. Her big break in this chapter of her career came when she signed with Def Jam Recordings in 2022, and soon after, got her first-ever nationally charting singles with "Caliber" and hit song "ICU." A theme of this article thus far has been "reward for years logged in the industry," and although Coco is younger than many of her peers that fit this bill, the criteria applies to the former child star here, too. A Best New Artist win would be the perfect way to celebrate this new era of her career.
Noah Kahan
Odds: 13-2
Active Since: 2016
Likely Nominated For: His single "Stick Season"
Biggest Song: "Stick Season"
I had never heard of Noah Kahan until late 2022, when my New England-born roommate Kaeley mentioned he was an artist from Vermont that spoke to her soul. I smiled and nodded, and assumed this was just some niche 40-year old folk artist I hadn't been privy to. Then suddenly, in the year 2023, this Kahan fella was everywhere- on the radio, on Twitter, on the news, on Saturday Night Live...and, at the end of the year, among the nominees for Best New Artist. It turns out he was not in fact an obscure, elder millenial, woodsy, indie recluse, but rather a 25-year old folk-pop artist with a songwriting body of work that got the attention of the likes of Kacey Musgraves, Olivia Rodrigo and Niall Horan. Kahan's rapid rise in popularity is reminiscent of the aggressive trajectory of Mumford and Sons some 10-15 years ago, and given the musical similarities, it's not out of the question to think he is on his way to comparable levels of fame (and insufferable white fandom). Winning this award, a real possibility, would be a good start.
Ice Spice
Odds: 11-2
Active Since: 2021
Likely Nominated For: Her EP Like...?
Biggest Song: "Boy's a Liar Pt. 2"
Love her (most people), hate her (my sisters, for some unexplained reason), or don't know her (most people aged 30 and above), Ice Spice is a phenomenon. The 24-year old drill rapper from the Bronx, born Isis Gaston, was a relative unknown until late 2022, when her song "Munch (Feelin' U)" went viral on both Twitter and TikTok. Building off that success, she released her EP Like...? nearly a year ago today, which included hits like the aforementioned single, "Bikini Bottom," and "In Ha Mood." Her popularity was a runaway train soon after this, as she became the first artist to chart four different #1 hits in the year 2023, and collaborations with the likes of Taylor Swift, Nicki Minaj, and fellow breakout star PinkPantheress did nothing to slow that. Such is her appeal, and so wide is her popularity that I'm pretty stunned she isn't the odds-on favorite right now, in fact, though I suspect some bets may understandably be hedged given the Grammys' problems with awarding black women with major wins.
Victoria Monét
Odds: 9-2
Active Since: 2010
Likely Nominated For: Her album Jaguar II
Biggest Song: "On My Mama"
I'll confess, I was very surprised to see that the current betting favorite is Victoria Monét, an artist that I would guess the majority of the casuals tuning in to the Grammys won't recognize. But upon further thought, I can understand the vision: Monét, full name Victoria Monét McCants, has exploded onto the scene with her debut studio album Jaguar II. The R&B album was one of the best-reviewed records of 2023, landed her three Grammy nods including this one, and included smash hit "On My Mama." Furthermore, more so than the conventional "new kid on the scene" archetypes, what has been a running theme throughout this preview piece? The nominees that have already 'put in the work' for years, and that also holds very true for Monét as well: since 2010, she has plied her trade as a songwriter and background vocalist, with the likes of Ariana Grandé, Fifth Harmony, P Diddy, and Little Mix. She's got current appeal and years of goodwill built up from the industry...that might just prove to be the ideal recipe.
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