The Nominees: Best New Artist
Miss Olivia Rodrigo seems poised to win multiple Grammys next month, but faces stiff competition in each category. Might Best New Artist be her best shot?
You’d be forgiven if you forgot that the Grammys were happening just 25 days from today. After all, it’s two months later than they were originally scheduled to be held, the pandemic that forced its postponement for the second straight year is still not over, we’re somehow entering into both March Madness szn AND Oscar szn all at once, and oh right, there's a potential global crisis developing halfway around the world. But it’s true; we are fast approaching “Music’s biggest night,” as the Grammys like to bill themselves, and as such, we will take the next couple weeks to do an overview of the biggest awards of the night, culminating in a general predictions piece on the day of the ceremony. First one up: Best New Artist!
A reminder, first of all, that while for many decades, each of the General Awards had fields of 5 nominees, in recent years, we saw those fields expanded to 8. Then, this year, at the 11th hour, the Academy decided to expand that number to 10 nominees in the General awards. So, even more nominees to preview!
Best New Artist is one of the most fascinating awards of the night, in part because of its track record, in part because of its criteria. The award has featured many famous winners, such as The Beatles, Crosby Stills & Nash, Cyndi Lauper, Tracy Chapman, Mariah Carey, Alicia Keys, Maroon 5, Adele, Chance the Rapper, Dua Lipa and Billie Eilish. It also has featured some major headscratchers, such as Macklemore beating the likes of Kendrick Lamar and Kacey Musgraves, Esperanza Spalding winning over a field that included Drake and Justin Bieber, and Meghan Trainor beating the likes of...well, anyone. Perhaps relatedly to the second point, there even is a "Best New Artist curse" that is often discussed, only half-jokingly, about the surprisingly common trend of breakout artists who win the award immediately fading back from the public view, never to really make much of an impact on the music scene again.
But the award for Best New Artist also generates buzz just about every year because it isn't ever really clear to anyone who isn't in the Recording Academy just what a new artist is. The official guidelines for the award have changed numerous times over the years, but one thing that has stayed consistent, at least in my lifetime, is that there is no real consistency. You can get a selection of nominees some years-- such as this year! --that have a range of 1 album to 4+ albums. The latest official guidelines for the award, according to the Academy, are as follows: "For a new artist who releases, during the Eligibility Year, the first recording which establishes the public identity of that artist." So uh, yeah. Clear as mud? Cool.
All that being said, here are this year's nominees, in order from least to most likely to win, according to odds from GoldDerby.com.
Arooj Aftab
Odds: 22-1
Active Since: 2014
Likely Nominated For: Her album Vulture Prince
Biggest Song: "Mohabbat"
Metacritic Artist Score: N/A
Arooj Aftab's two nominations were one of the more pleasant surprises from the Grammy nomination announcement. The Pakistani-by-way-of-Brooklyn vocalist and composer was one of the beneficiaries of the last-minute extension of the field to 10 nominees, as the documents obtained by The New York Times show she did not originally make the cut of 8 nominees. Aftab has not in any way broken into the mainstream, but with a field as large as it is, probably has enough appreciators from a very specific corner of the music industry to land her a nod, not only for this award, but for Best Global Music Performance. She is the longest of longshots to score a major Grammy this year, but in a sense, it doesn't really matter, as this surprise nod will serve to get her name out there. And that name recognition is deserved; do yourself a favor and listen to the Tiny Desk Concert linked above when you get a chance.
Baby Keem
Odds: 18-1
Active Since: 2017
Likely Nominated For: His album Melodic Blue
Biggest Song: "family ties"
Metacritic Artist Score: 77
The other last-minute addition to the Best New Artist field was fresh-faced rapper Baby Keem. It's actually a little surprising to me that the Vegas rapper didn't make the original field of 8. His debut full-length album, Melodic Blue, just missed the cutoff date to be nominated for any Grammys, but Keem had already had himself quite a year before that cutoff date, featuring on Kanye West's Grammy-nominated DONDA, and spitting out three hit singles "durag activity," "family ties," and "range brothers." The first of those tracks featured Travis Scott, and the latter two featured his cousin Kendrick Lamar, and any time you can get two of the biggest names in the industry to hop on a track with you, you're doing something right (case in point: "family ties" is also nominated for Best Rap Song and Best Rap Performance). He won't win this award, simply because of the star power of the other nominees in this field with him, but earning this nomination is a quite good foundation for him to base his foray into the rap game.
Japanese Breakfast
Odds: 18-1
Active Since: 2013
Likely Nominated For: Their album Jubilee
Biggest Song: "Be Sweet"
Metacritic Artist Score: 82
It was interesting for me to see experimental pop band Japanese Breakfast nominated for Best New Artist, because I felt like I had heard their names for a while, but sure enough, it was only last year that I actually heard their music for the first time. Helmed by Michelle Zauner, the band has been "active" for a number of years now, dating back to some tracks that Zauner debuted on Tumblr to much Internet acclaim, and thus have acquired a decent cult following among musicheads. 2021 album Jubilee was a breakout success for them, however, with lead single "Be Sweet" being their first song to chart on U.S. radio. Their double nomination (they're also among the nominees for Best Alternative Album, one of my favorite awards) and passionate fanbase make them an intriguing candidate for Best New Artist. They almost surely won't win, but they would make a strong nominee in just about any year, not just one with 10 nominees.
Jimmie Allen
Odds: 16-1
Active Since: 2017
Likely Nominated For: His single "Freedom Was A Highway"
Biggest Song: "Best Shot"
Metacritic Artist Score: N/A
Jimmie Allen is an interesting Best New Artist nominee. Not, as you might think, because he's a Country artist; this is one of the few fields that Country typically finds some success at the Grammys. Rather, it's that he's a nominee in 2022. Allen was a popular contestant on American Idol back in 2011, and found success with his first couple singles back in 2018. But in the last year, he hasn't done a whole lot other than release a deluxe version of his 2020 EP and the single "Freedom Was A Highway." Yet, he recently earned New Male Artist of the Year at the CMAs back in November, and now finds himself in the mix for this award, too. He has a lane for victory, given he's the sole Country artist, and would be a landmark winner as a Black Country artist specifically, but I'm guessing the lack of name recognition and "now" factor will be his undoing.
Glass Animals
Odds: 15-1
Active Since: 2010
Likely Nominated For: Their single "Heat Waves"
Biggest Song: "Heat Waves"
Metacritic Artist Score: 75
Glass Animals, also are a completely inexplicable nominee for 'Best New Artist' in 2022. I've posited for numerous years now-- and will again in the future --that the Grammys need to shore up their criteria for a "new artist," or just rebrand th award to be "Best Breakthrough Artist." And Glass Animals might be the best example in support of that argument since I've started making it. The English alt-rock band got their start twelve years ago, released their first EP almost exactly ten years before this year's Grammy ceremony, and released their first full-length album in 2014. Yet, somehow are eligible for Best New Artist at the 2022 Grammys, even though their megahit "Heat Waves" isn't, as it was actually released in summer of 2020. Now, please don't mistake my bemusement for disapproval; Glass Animals are a great band, and a fun nominee, and given the ubiquity of "Heat Waves," even have some spoiler potential. I just am a bit confused why this nomination didn't happen until this year.
Saweetie
Odds: 14-1
Active Since: 2017
Likely Nominated For: Her singles "Best Friend," "Fast," and "Icy Chain"
Biggest Song: "Best Friend"
Metacritic Artist Score: N/A
First-time Grammy nominee Saweetie is trying to become the second consecutive female rapper to win this award. Much like reigning winner Megan Thee Stallion, the West Coast rapper had a good amount of buzz already before blowing up this past year. Saweetie caught the attention of the hip-hop world back in 2018 with her first single "Icy Grl," but really tasted mainstream success with "My Type" and "Tap In" in the ensuing years. Then, in 2021, came the singles listed above, and "Best Friend" in particular (featuring 2021 Best New Artist nominee and 2022 Album of the Year nominee Doja Cat) suddenly made her a household name. Unlike Megan, Saweetie still doesn't have a full-length project released, and she also is not easily the biggest name of this field, both of which make her a little more unlikely of a winner. That said, especially considering her double nomination in the Rap categories, far stranger things have happened.
Arlo Parks
Odds: 13-1
Active Since: 2019
Likely Nominated For: Her album Collapsed In Sunbeams
Biggest Song: "Black Dog"
Metacritic Artist Score: 83
With one noteworthy exception (which I will get to later), Arlo Parks has as much of a claim as anyone in this field to be considered a "new" artist. Her 2021 album, Collapsed In Sunbeams, was her first full-length record, and in the years preceding, the 21-year old had released only a smattering of singles. Collapsed In Sunbeams was one of my favorite releases of the last year, so unsurprisingly, I was delighted to see the indie R&B artist nominated in this category. That said, I'm a little confused as to how she's perceived to have significantly better odds than Japanese Breakfast, considering they essentially occupy the same lane of 'beloved indie artists who are also nominated for Best Alternative Album.' But, oddsmakers know more than I do, so one can only hope that means an Arlo Parks upset isn't out of the question.
Finneas
Odds: 12-1
Active Since: 2016
Likely Nominated For: His single "Til Forever Falls Apart" and being the brother of Billie Eilish
Biggest Song: "Let's Fall In Love For The Night"
Metacritic Artist Score: 72
Yet another Best New Artist nominee that's confusing for the year we're in. You've quite likely seen Finneas before. He's been in the game for a decade now, first plying his trade as an actor, with repeated appearances in Modern Family and Glee, among others. He then ventured into the world of music as a solo artist, before REALLY finding success as a co-writer with and producer for his sister (and 2020 Best New Artist winner) Billie Eilish, who has become one of the biggest pop stars on Earth. So there's no question Finneas is a multi-hyphenate, and that might help explain his fairly good odds to snag this award. But the thing is, he's not nominated for this award for being a multi-hyphenate. He's nominated for being an artist, and in that arena alone, his track record from the last eligibility year is sparing. He did release his debut full-length album Optimist last Fall, but that was not within the eligibility window, having been released in October, so all we really have to go on were his mildly popular singles "What They'll Say About Us," "Can't Wait To Die," and "Til Forever Falls Apart." All this to say, just like Glass Animals, it's not that Finneas is an undeserving nominee, just not the most timely one.
the Kid LAROI
Odds: 12-1
Active Since: 2018
Likely Nominated For: His singles "So Done," "Without You," and "Stay"
Biggest Song: "Stay"
Metacritic Artist Score: N/A
If you haven't heard of the Kid LAROI, your kids probably have. The punk pop/rap artist from Australia has released multiple EPs, even dating back to four years ago, but exploded this past year thanks to a couple earworms that couldn't be missed on TikTok and Instagram. It's a bit strange for the Kid LAROI, real name Charlton Howard (which... lol), to have such good odds at this award with no real full-length release out there this year, but such were the staying power of his hits "Without You" and "Stay." At just 18 years old, he'd be among the youngest winners of this ward ever, and it would be quite the statement to the music industry.
Olivia Rodrigo
Odds: 17-2
Active Since: 2021
Likely Nominated For: Her album SOUR
Biggest Song: "drivers license"
Metacritic Artist Score: 83
To say Olivia Rodrigo had more of a presence than most Best New Artist nominees of any year would already be an impressive statement, but would also be an understatement. Olivia was a positively a force, a maelstrom, what have you, from the start of 2021 nearly to the very end. The teen pop sensation isn't a total newcomer on the scene, as she had decent exposure on the Disney channel thanks to starring in the High School Musical series. But she had no prior discography as a solo artist when, in the first week of January last year, she released "drivers license" on the unsuspecting masses. "drivers license" proceeded to top the charts for eight consecutive weeks, break the Spotify streaming record for non-holiday songs, and went quadruple platinum. It remains Rodrigo's biggest hit to date, but it would be far from her only one, as follow-up singles "deja vu," "good 4 u," "traitor," and "brutal" all went on to break into at least the Top 10 of the charts and get certified platinum as well. Lest you think she was just a singles machine, her debut album SOUR also topped the charts and was met with much critical acclaim. As a cherry on top, she was recently named Entertainer of the Year by Time and Woman of the Year by Billboard. She's a breakout phenomenon reminiscent of Billie Eilish a few years ago, and like Eillish, Olivia has a chance to replicate the clean sweep of all General awards. So no, it's not a surprise at all that she has by far the best odds; in fact, not to tip my hand too much on the predictions, but it will be a much bigger surprise if she doesn't win.
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