The Couch Power 10, Week 9

Happy November, college football fans! We are officially coming down the stretch of a season that feels like it just started a week ago. Wild, isn't it? November, the month where contenders are separated from the pack, where pretenders are cast into college football limbo, and historically, when I cease being emotionally invested in North Carolina football and become more invested in the national race (but not this year!!!...yet).

Last weekend was a sneakily chaotic weekend. I say 'sneaky' because most of the top teams stayed above the chaos, and given that the slate was pretty bare on high-profile showdowns, most of the upsets didn't really command media coverage. But the tone was set with the Thursday night games last week, when Utah and North Carolina State both barely avoided embarrassing losses to unranked teams. That trend continued on Saturday, with TCU and USC locked in battles with teams with losing records to the very last seconds. Some of their peers were not quite as lucky: 7 more ranked teams fell on Saturday, and over half of them were felled by unranked opponents. And in the game that had everyone's eyes on it (but most significantly, mine, as I drove down to be in attendance), North Carolina took a while to get going against a Pitt team they hadn't beaten since 2018, but future Hall of Famer Drake Maye eventually decided to get in his bag and help the Heels dole out 28 unanswered en route to an ultimately comfortable victory.

And this week, the 'chaos' continued tonight. That's right, the playoff committee released their inaugural 2022 College Football Playoff Rankings, and well... let's just say, this committee is wasting no time letting everyone know they're ready to be back on their bullshit. There's too much to even parse out here, so I'll stick to the highlights: 1-loss Alabama, with zero quality wins, ranked #6? Ahead of undefeated TCU, who has both played and beaten more ranked teams? 2-loss LSU ranked in the Top 10?!? Tulane ranked 6 spots behind Kansas State, who has one more loss and who lost to Tulane at home?!?! 3-loss Texas ranked!!?!?!?!?!?! Somebody make it make sense. Me, I guess. I will try to make it make sense.

Just a refresher: this is not a definitive ranking on how good the teams are, or on who I think will be/deserves to be in the playoff at the end of the year. Rather, it's more of a "What if preseason rankings and bigwig bias didn't predetermine the top teams" kind of thing, an ideal ranking of the country's teams based on what they've actually proved on the field to date:

1. Tennessee

The committee, for all their misgivings, did get one thing right, and it's no small deal because no other poll has gotten it right yet: Tennessee is absolutely the #1 team. They could have won 3-2 in the ugliest game imaginable, and their resumé still would have warranted the top spot, but the Vols instead made a mockery of yet another ranked team, annihilating #19 Kentucky in Knoxville. The trick now for the Volunteers will be avoiding the same fate as 2014 Mississippi State, who was a surprise success from the SEC to debut at #1 in the CFP rankings, only to immediately lose for the first time all season on the road against a blue-blood rival (Alabama for them, #3 Georgia for this Tennessee team).

2. TCU

I won't spend this whole time rehashing the grievances about TCU being ranked at #7 in the playoff rankings. Instead, I'll just point out that despite once again going behind early, they once again rallied for a difficult road victory despite falling behind West Virginia, and the Horned Frogs remain one of just three teams that owns wins over 3 ranked opponents.

3. Clemson

Clemson, more than just about any other team, is drawing the most ire and calls of "overrated!!" from the college football masses after the committee ranked them at #4, and I must admit I don't really understand. Sure, the Tigers' bye week came at an inopportune time, right before the rankings reveal, and when all of their ranked opponents lost or almost lost. Sure, they have looked beatable in most games they've played. But you know what? Nobody has beaten them, and in a year where no side apart from arguably Tennessee has consistently looked the part of "great team," that means something, as does owning wins over 3 ranked teams, not to mention a road win over Florida State who, by the committee's Texas metric, is certainly good enough to be ranked.

4. Ohio State

The opportunity finally arose for the Buckeyes to get a big notch in their belt by beating a ranked opponent, and they did not disappoint, knocking off #13 Penn State, 44-31. For all the talk by pundits about how good this team is, and respect from the committee ranking them 2nd (and from the likes of Sagarin, which rates them the best team in the country), I would have liked to see a more comprehensive victory; they were in a dogfight until about the 8-minute mark of the 4th quarter. Still, for Ohio State to face the pressure of being the favored team, and close that impressively down the stretch in one of the most hostile environments in the country is significant.

5. Michigan

Don't count me among the masses that thought Michigan was hard done by by the committee, I think #5 is a perfect slot for them. Their sole quality win (Penn State) took another L last weekend, and the Wolverines weren't exactly dominant at home against a very subpar Michigan State team. However, do count me among those who think the distance between them and their hated rivals is too big; Ohio State might have passed the eye test more easily than the Wolverines thus far, but their resumé is practically identical. That's hardly grounds for ranking one at #2 and the other outside the playoff spots at the moment.

6. Georgia

The noteworthy footnote to Tennessee's #1 ranking is that all other polls have Georgia at #1, which of course adds even more subtext to the teams' meeting this weekend. However, I actually think the defending champs are the worst of the unbeaten teams to date. This isn't recency bias talking; t's not that their game this weekend was bad, although they did let a mediocre Florida side hang around a little longer than probably most Georgia fans liked. But their resumé is clinging solely to a season-opening home win over Oregon that has aged extremely well, because absolutely nothing about their schedule to date is impressive. The combined records of all their other opponents is 18-22, and they have struggled massively with at least a couple of those teams. The good news is, the Dawgs have a huge chance to change their perception and improve their body of work when #1 comes to town this weekend!

7. Alabama

College football's pride and joy had a bye week this week, presumably to lounge on golden thrones and be hand-fed the most luscious grapes in the land by the playoff committee.

8. Oregon

The Ducks started slow last weekend, but avoided the classic "road game against a conference opponent one week after a huge win" trap game scenario, and rallied to dispatch of Cal easily in the 2nd half. The Ducks' sole blemish this year was that early loss to still-unbeaten Georgia, and you have to think that means they likely control their own destiny not only in the Pac-12, but potentially for the playoff as well.

9. Ole Miss

Welcome back to the Power 10, Ole Miss! Texas A&M is, of course, a shell of the team they were expected to be, but is still a wildly talented team and an extremely difficult place to win, so the Rebels' road comeback was an impressive bounceback from the LSU loss. Even if their sole loss (to an LSU team that's evidently one of the 10 best in the country) offsets their sole ranked win, the rest of their schedule is predominantly Ole Miss beating up on bad-to-decent opponents. We'll see if they're authentic or not when Alabama comes knocking in two weeks.

10. Tulane

The Group of Five is back in the Power 10!!! Everyone give a warm welcome to the Cinderella du jour, the Tulane Green Wave. The Wave, at #19, were one of just two Group of Five teams in the initial playoff rankings, and debut in the driver's seat for a New Year's Six bowl. It's not just a fluke that they're 7-1, either. Were it not for a very close loss to Southern Miss-- which Tulane is probably still kicking themselves over --they would be unbeaten with a record full of comfortable wins, and crucially, that head-to-head victory on the road at Kansas State, which is aging extremely well.

Just missed: UCLA, North Carolina, USC, Illinois, Kansas State, #DrakeMayeHeismanHype