The Couch Power 10, Week 12
I'm writing this week's Power 10 from the cozy confines of some friends' Wisconsin home, in front of their already set-up Christmas tree, and as I look outside, snow has begun to fall. That can only mean one thing! Okay, it can mean two things: holiday season is well and truly upon us, and by extension, the end of the college football regular season is near.
After a year full of turbulence, last weekend stayed fairly calm on the surface, which was always a distinct possibility in a slate that featured only two matchups between ranked teams, both in the SEC. And yet? For the playoff committee, whose crucial verdict is less than 3 weeks away, there managed to be just enough chaos to render just about the worst-possible outcome for them.
It actually could have been even worse: the unanimously agreed-upon top-ranked team Oregon got their biggest fright on Saturday night since their last-minute win over Ohio State, as they needed a 10-point 4th quarter and a late field goal to survive Wisconsin's enormous upset bid. But simultaneously in primetime, Georgia was busy beating rivals Tennessee, officially resulting in a logjam of four different 8-2 SEC teams, none of whom are guaranteed a spot in the SEC Championship, who have all beaten at least one of the other teams in question. Earlier that evening, in the only other ranked matchup, South Carolina stunned Missouri with a last-minute touchdown, theoretically keeping both 3-loss SEC teams' slim hopes alive for playoff contention rather than surely eliminating one of them. Later that night, BYU's magical undefeated season would finally come to an end, at the unexpected hands of Kansas; that loss greatly obscures the Big 12 race is likely to create a second logjam of Big 12, ACC, and Group of Five teams (BYU, Miami, Colorado, SMU, Arizona State, Iowa State, Boise State, Army, Tulane) both in terms of their vying for conference championships and playoff qualification, and actual seeding in the playoff itself. Far be it from me to feel sympathy for the playoff committee-- after all, they're a group of wealthy elites who get to sit in a hotel room and decide the fate of my favorite American sport -- but I must say, this first year of the expanded playoff is trending towards a pretty unforgiving task for them.
Just a refresher, in case you forgot: this is not a definitive ranking on how good the teams are, or on who I think will be/deserves to be in the playoff at the end of the year. Rather, it's more of a "What if preseason rankings and bigwig bias didn't predetermine the top teams" kind of thing, an ideal ranking of the country's teams based on what they've actually proved on the field to date. Don't be mad cuz I'm doin' me better than you doin' you:
1. Oregon
I have nothing against the Badgers, and certainly nothing against exciting upsets, but at least for the purposes of this Power 10 I breathed a sigh of relief when Oregon pulled out the road victory in Madison, as I'm sure the playoff committee did. Amidst such a pileup in the rankings and those vying for the playoff field, it's nice to at least have an undisputed # 1 team. And at # 1 Oregon shall remain until after Thanksgiving, as they have Week 12 off to prepare for their season finale against Washington. The Ducks are the closest thing we have to a lock for the inaugural 12-team playoff.
2. Indiana
One very annoying, and very predictable, debate that has emerged during Indiana's bye week as we hurdle towards the end of the regular season, is whether the Hoosiers (currently 10-0) deserves to be in the playoff field ahead of the not one, not two, not three, but four different SEC teams that have at least 2 losses on the season. Let me be very clear where I stand: yes, they do. Even if they lose to Ohio State this weekend. Strength of schedule is absolutely important (it's one of the chief metrics I utilize), and it's no secret that Indiana's is poor, though it will be greatly boosted after this weekend regardless of the result against Ohio State. But whether or not you think Indiana would fare worse against the SEC gauntlet, you can't tell me with a straight face that any "major program" whose body of work was an 11-1 season, with the sole loss coming on the road against the #2 team in the country, and the only win that was remotely close coming against the reigning national champions, would be left out of a 12-team playoff. Of course, there is the chance Curt Cignetti's squad saves everyone the headache and keeps their perfect record alive with a massive win in Columbus this weekend.
3. Ohio State
I know, I know....finally win one national title, and the Big Ten suddenly thinks they deserve the Top 3 spots in the Couch Power 10! Listen, I don't like it any more than you do, but the Buckeyes in this spot seemed like a pretty clear-cut decision. They're not a perfect team, but it's starting to seem like very few are. The fact is, Ohio State owns a Top 3 strength of record, their sole loss came on the road by 1 to perhaps the best team in America, and their only two wins that ended up being close were in the weeks that immediately followed, against a plucky Nebraska team and a Top 5 Penn State team. That said, as much as people are saying this weekend's huge clash with Indiana will tell us a lot more about the Hoosiers, the truth is it will tell us more about the Buckeyes, too.
4. BYU
Yeah, that's right. BYU only slips two spots in our Power 10 despite losing to an unranked team at home. Chances are they'll slip much further in the CFP rankings, but that doesn't mean they should. You can say that the loss to Kansas exposed them as 'frauds' but it's actually far from the worst loss among playoff contenders. Besides, a loss to a talented team that came down to a couple fluke plays in the 4th quarter does not suddenly negate a win over ACC leaders SMU, a blowout win over fellow ranked team Kansas State, and a Top 50 strength of schedule. The worst news for the Cougars, to me, is that they now head to Tempe to face a red-hot Arizona State team...lose that one, and there likely is no road back in both the Big 12 and playoff race.
5. Texas
I just don't really know what to make of Texas. Every time I feel ready to put them among the nation's elite, they do something to make me think I should hold off on that. I thought they were unquestionably the best team in the country when Georgia came to town and dragged them around their home field. The Longhorns responded well with a road win at a then-ranked Vanderbilt team, but as Oklahoma and Michigan began to tank, people began poking serious holes in their résumé. After blowing out Florida last week-- sandwiched between the Gators' narrow defeat vs. Georgia and Saturday's upset over LSU --I was ready to declare them back, then they go to face a mediocre Arkansas team and only escape with an ugly win because of a 4th-quarter touchdown. My best read on them at this point is that they are one of the most talented teams in the country, who have failed their only significant test to date, and these last few weeks (vs. a tricky Kentucky team, on the road at hated rivals Texas A&M, a berth in the SEC Championship should they win those) will inform us on whether they are truly great or just good.
6. Notre Dame
The Hoosier State teams are taking a beating in SEC-positive circles these days; it may not be Indiana levels, but many critics are also starting to question what Notre Dame is doing sitting so comfortably in playoff discussions, especially with that glaring loss to Northern Illinois on their hands. Far be it from me to be a Notre Dame apologist, and it's true that the shocker vs. NIU is by far the worst loss any playoff hopeful have suffered. But if we're being fair and balanced, which is what we always strive for, the Irish's Week 1 win at Texas A&M has aged very well, and could age even better should the Aggies win out and secure a spot in the SEC Championship. What's more, they own 5 wins over bowl-eligible teams, tied for the best in the country, and really the only time they've been remotely challenged since that loss was a close win over a solid Louisville team over a month ago. This weekend's showdown against a Top 20 Army side in Yankee Stadium will be their second chance at beating a previously unbeaten service academy in the last three weeks. They're not there yet, but though it hurts me to say it, an 11-1 Notre Dame team would deserve a playoff spot.
7. Penn State
The discourse and finger-pointing surrounding Indiana, the various SEC teams, and to a lesser extent, Notre Dame, has no bigger beneficiary than Penn State. The Nittany Lions have quietly spent the last 7 weeks ranked in the Top 5, even as they suffered their first loss in that time, and nobody seems to question it, probably because that sole loss was a close one, to Ohio State. But the disappointments that USC, Wisconsin, Washington and West Virginia have turned out to be have left them with no real signature win, either, unless you count their narrow win over a good-not-great Illinois side. Still, despite my many reservations about how good this Penn State team actually is, they've notched two straight blowout wins since the Ohio State disappointment, and own a Top 5 strength of record. Is this a playoff team? In the 4-team era, almost surely not, but in this new frontier, it's very hard to argue they're not.
8. Boise State
I realize now that I actually forgot one more nugget of almost-chaos from Saturday night: while Georgia were closing out a competitive win over Tennessee and Oregon were barely escaping Wisconsin, Boise State (one of the only others to seriously trouble Oregon) came awfully close to jeopardizing their playoff standing, trailing San Jose State by double digits at halftime and needing a big late surge to see off the Spartans. But see off their hosts they did, and thanks to losses by Miami and BYU in back-to-back weeks (and the head-to-head win by BYU over current ACC leaders SMU), Boise State has a very real chance now of not only securing the Group of Five's automatic bid for the playoff, but also securing a first-round bye as a result of finishing ahead of a fellow conference champion. They'll have to do their part first, though, and a Mountain West championship against either fellow ranked team UNLV or fellow (conference) unbeaten Colorado State awaits dauntingly.
9. Georgia
They were the first 1-loss team ranked in the 2024 edition of the Couch Power 10, so in a way it feels right that Georgia are now the first 2-loss team to make our cut. If Texas has been an enigma for me to figure out, conference-mates Georgia have been that and then some. Unlike Texas, the Bulldogs have had the primetime measuring sticks, but they've gone almost right down the middle in those games. Blowout wins over Clemson and Texas were arguably counter-balanced by a loss at Alabama and a blowout loss at Ole Miss just last week, as well as narrow escapes past the likes of Kentucky and Mississippi State. But this weekend's win against # 6 Tennessee crucially kept the Dawgs firmly in the playoff path, and while they still only have a 1-2 record against their peers in the four-way "2-loss SEC team" pileup, their top-ranked schedule strength in the country gives them the top billing for me.
10. Alabama
Some could argue that having Alabama ranked immediately behind Georgia goes against my steadfast belief in "assuming equal records, head-to-head trumps all." However, if you scroll down ever so slightly from this pick, you will see that Tennessee and Ole Miss immediately follow this ranking; in other words, this isn't about "Alabama vs. Georgia," it's about "Alabama vs. Georgia vs. Tennessee (who the Tide lost to) vs. Ole Miss (who they haven't played)," and their body of work between the four grades out as comfortably second best. I'm not convinced the Tide are a great team the way they so often were in the Nick Saban era, and they haven't faced the murderers' row Georgia did. But they do have a Top 20 schedule strength to go with their signature win over the Dawgs, and to their credit, have responded to their second loss at Tennessee with a three week stretch of beating their opponents (two of them ranked) by a 128-20 margin. Besides, it's worth noting that while it flew under the radar at the time, their blowout win in Madison early in the season looks a little more impressive in the wake of Wisconsin nearly toppling Oregon.
Just missed: Tennessee, Ole Miss, Army, SMU, Miami, future Hall of Famer Omarion MF Hampton
BONUS: Couch Playoff Bracket!
*denotes conference auto-bid
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