The Couch Power 10, Week 11
Happy Thanksgiving week, friends! It's not just a week of celebration and harmony and family, it's the ultimate week of the college football season, which you likely already knew if you read this piece.
It feels like we are hurtling to the finish line to this season rapidly with so much unknown still, and the penultimate weekend of games did nothing to create any further separation. It was unlikely to, anyhow, with only four games between ranked teams, and only two of those games involving a playoff contender. In those particular matchup, Georgia and Washington remained unbeaten in a breezy win at #19 Tennessee and a tense, tight, rainy affair vs. #11 Oregon State, respectively. In the other two, Arizona blitzed Utah, and Kansas State edged Kansas in the Sunflower State battle. But, apart from Missouri's, Louisville's, and Iowa's narrow escapes against their unranked opponents and #20 UNC falling at Clemson, the day was short on drama. Which means with just two (at most) games remaining for teams to make their playoff and New Year's Six cases, we've got a whole lot of drama to come in this next fortnight.
Just a refresher: this is not a definitive ranking on how good the teams are, or on who I think will be/deserves to be in the playoff at the end of the year. Rather, it's more of a "What if preseason rankings and bigwig bias didn't predetermine the top teams" kind of thing, an ideal ranking of the country's teams based on what they've actually proved on the field to date. And as we're coming down the stretch, in the wake of more baffling decisions by the playoff committee, this rankings is honing its criteria: résumé is the starting point. Objectivity over subjectivity. Got it? Cool. Don't be mad cuz I'm doin' me better than you doin' you:
1. Georgia
I am not at all sold by the playoff committee that Tennessee is anything but a mediocre team. But they're a mediocre team with a lot of talent, that had hated rivals Georgia in front of a hostile crowd, and the Bulldogs still maintained their perfect season with absolute ease. Georgia Tech is not the walkover they've often been in past years, but I would still expect the Dawgs to come into next week's SEC Championship with their winning streak intact.
2. Washington
Washington finally moved up in the CFP rankings, from #5 to #4-- which, given that Ohio State and Michigan play each other this weekend, is a de facto #3 spot --in the wake of their 5th ranked win this season. The movement was warranted; UW showed their toughness in a rainy night in Corvallis, beating a good Oregon state team despite scoring zero points in the 2nd half. The questions for the committee are 1., why did it take this long for the Huskies to crack the Top 4, and 2. why, with five wins over ranked teams, a perfect record, a Heisman frontrunner, and the top-rated 'strength of record,' are they not ranked higher?
3. Florida State
When you're playing a cupcake like North Alabama the penultimate week of the season, all you really hope for is a routine win with zero injuries. Short of actually losing the game, the worst-possible scenario for Florida State played out; star quarterback Jordan Travis suffered an awful injury and will miss the rest of the season. Plus, relatedly, the Seminoles had to exert much more effort than expected to close out their FCS opponents. The silver lining for Mike Norvell and co. is that they are still a very good team that controls their own destiny-- contrary to what hot take artists in college football punditry are trying to argue, there is no way the playoff committee will leave a 13-0 ACC Champion out of the bracket. The downside is with them being the lowest-ranked of all unbeaten teams, there really is zero margin for error, and without Travis, Louisville and even Florida both are very losable games.
4. Ohio State
I still don't agree with the metrics that Ohio State's strength of schedule is all that superior to Michigan's, but in Hate Week, the Buckeyes flip-flop back on top of their rivals for looking considerably more dominant in recent weeks.
5. Michigan
Michigan's trip to Maryland had all the ingredients for a trap game: a road showdown, sandwiched between the wolverines' two biggest games of the year, against an opponent that was not good enough to fire up they hype machine but good enough to catch you sleeping if you're not up for it. And Michigan almost got trapped! But, with their coach still not allowed on the sidelines, they dug deep to gut out an often-ugly, close win, and set up an unbeaten clash with rivals Ohio State this weekend. Michigan spent most of the season in the minds of many as the best team in the country; they have an incredible opportunity to make their argument it's still the case this Saturday.
6. Texas
Texas' win over Iowa State was pretty unconvincing, as has been the case for nearly all their wins in the 2nd half of the season. But, it was a 5th straight victory for the Longhorns, who now own the most impressive strength of record of any non-unbeaten team, per ESPN. Texas seems to be getting lost in a lot of the breathless playoff permutation discussion, and I don't know why. Yes, their big games have been few and far between and they haven't looked great in a while, but if there are less than 4 unbeaten conference champions and with their road win at Alabama (and sole loss coming on a last-second TD pass in a rivalry game), you have to imagine they're serious contenders.
7. Alabama
Alabama's in an unfamiliar position under Nick Saban; not, mind you, being an SEC East champion with numerous ranked wins and no more than one loss. But rather, in a position that even if they were to beat #1 Georgia and win the SEC with that resume, it still might be enough to get them into the playoff. Such is life when 5 different Power 5 teams remain unbeaten headed into the final week, and one of the 1-loss teams ranked ahead of you beat you on their home field. Still, though the margin might be thin, a 12-1 SEC Championship season with a win over the two-time reigning national champs would give the committee something to reeeeeeally think about.
8. Oregon
Again, Oregon's only here because as the clock winds down on the season, I'm placing absolute emphasis on body of work. I think the Ducks are legitimately one of the best teams in the country, and their demolition of Arizona State last weekend didn't dissaude me from that. And it's a very good sign for their chances that the playoff committee still has them ahead of Texas and Alabama. But, even though their loss was arguably the "best" loss of any team, the fact remains that thanks to Colorado and Washington State capsizing, and USC and now even Utah falling out of the Top 25, they own zero wins over currently ranked teams. Fortunately, they have a chance to get one back on their scoresheet in the Civil War vs. #16 Oregon State on Friday night.
9. Louisville
A road win against a talented Miami team is not easy to come by (just ask Florida State or Clemson), but Louisville was able to close out a thrilling victory and clinch a spot in the ACC Championship in the process. It's been an incredible turnaround under first-year head coach Jeff Brohm, and the Cardinals aren't out of the playoff race. Sure, at the tail-end of the Top 10 and with a bad loss to Pitt on their resume, a whole lot has to fall into place for them, including wins over Kentucky and Florida State. But other than their bizarre aberration in Pittsburgh, the Cards have won all their games, including over ranked Notre Dame, NC State, and Duke teams, and over 4 other likely bowl teams. Perhaps they should be getting even more buzz than they had been.
10. Ole Miss
The top 9 is hard to dispute, but once it reaches the Power 5 teams with 2 losses or more, there's a jumbled mess within a tier that all seems to be around the same level: Missouri, Ole Miss, Penn State, Oklahoma, LSU, Notre Dame, etc. But Ole Miss is the clear winner of that group when it comes to strength of record, with ESPN even slotting them ahead of Oregon and Louisville in that metric. This may seem surprising, given that the only time we've seen the Rebels play a good team in the last month, they were losing by 40 points. But with their sole losses coming on the road to #1 Georgia and #8 Alabama, and wins over Georgia Tech, Tulane and especially LSU that are all aging very well indeed, maybe the Lane Train deserves a little more credit.
Just missed: Mizzou, Penn State, Oklahoma, Tulane, Toledo, my personal Butkus Award winner Cedric Gray
BONUS: Bowl Projection Time!
ROSE (Semifinal): # 2 Washington vs. #3 Florida State
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