State of the Union: Projecting the USMNT World Cup Squad (Oct. edition)
The last time (and the only other time) that we did any sort of look into the United States Men's National Team was in the heat of the summer, when the squad was fresh off a couple months that had seen them secure qualification to the World Cup in Qatar, perform admirably in a couple summer friendlies against other Qatar-bound teams, and get off to a winning start in the 2022-23 Nations League.
When we left that piece, we mentioned that only one more window of international play separated that summer series and the abnormal winter World Cup. Well, nearly three months on, that window has come and gone, and well, the mood surrounding the U.S. camp could not be more vastly different than how it was in mid-July. The U.S.A.'s two late-September matches against Japan and Saudi Arabia were essentially to fulfill three objectives: 1. Check in again where we measure up to other Cup teams in a semi-competitive context, 2. Get more clarity on the final 26-man squad to see who stands out and execels, and who doesn't, especially within the various position battles, and 3. Build more domestic hype and anticipation for the upcoming tournament. Based only on that 2-match sample size, then, which admittedly is a very narrow context, this September window can't really be described as anything other than a colossal failure.
The United States was equally listless in both matches against their Asian foes, scrounging together a grand total of one-- ONE!!! --shot on goal in 180+ minutes. Saudi Arabia, especially trotting out a de facto B-team, wasn't good enough of a side to inject any real scare into the USMNT on their own end, but an uninspiring 0-0 draw was hardly the salve fans were hoping for from their 2-0 thorough shellacking they took from Japan just a few days prior. If those two games were any representation of how the U.S. will fare in the upcoming World Cup....well, yikes, is just about the only thing that can be said. Making matters worse was that we got almost no answers to the burning questions remaining about this squad. From the start, many of Gregg Berhalter's included and excluded names for this camp were head-scratching, to put it nicely, and confounding the manager's bad P.R., many of the players that were controversial selections and/or jockeying for real position in the squad just, er, didn't play well at all or seemingly help their standing in any way. And as for the third objective....what was it, again? Ohhh right. Build excitement and passion among fans in the States about this team and this manager? Yeah, I'll let you guess if that came to fruition.
But other than that, everything's great!!!! So, with exactly 5 weeks until the team kicks off World Cup play against Wales, let's get to our breakdown of who is still in the running to represent the Stars and Stripes in November, separated by position and into three tiers of likelihood:
GOALIES
Locks
Matt Turner (Arsenal)
Strong Contenders
Ethan Horvath (Luton Town)
Sean Johnson (New York City FC)
Zack Steffen (Middlesbrough)
Wild Cards
Gabriel Slonina (Chelsea)
Should Make The Squad: Turner, Steffen, Johnson
WILL Make The Squad: Turner, Steffen, Johnson
One good thing, maybe the ONLY good thing, that came from this international window was a little clarity at the goalie position. Four different keepers had featured for the U.S. from the conclusion of the 2020 Nations League through the entirety of World Cup Qualifying and start of the next Nations League, and fans and pundits alike identified this position as one of a few that the USMNT needed someone to step up and become a clear starter heading into the tournament. Well, newly minted Arsenal man Matt Turner did just that. Turner had already looked like the best keeper in WCQ, to be honest, but Gregg Berhalter has made, and continues to make, no bones about how highly thinks of Zack Steffen, and often opts for the latter in clutch matches. However, due to Steffen's unfortunately-timed injury, Turner played between the sticks against both Japan and Saudi Arabia, and made the most of the opportunity, saving his shoddy back line time and time again. Berhalter refuses to confirm him as Goalie #1, but it's at least an extremely safe bet now to conclude he will be on the plane to Qatar. I can't really imagine Berhalter not opting to take a healthy Steffen, but I will say it is considerably less of a sure thing than at any other point in this World Cup cycle. 2022 has not been kind to Steffen; he saw sparse minutes at Manchester City, and didn't exactly cover himself in glory in his limited appearances, and since moving on loan to Championship side Middlesbrough, has endured a combination of bad form and bad injury luck. It's likely not enough for him to fall from 1st choice keeper to missing the USMNT boat completely, but he'll be hoping for clearer skies soon. And, working on the assumption that the U.S. will bring the standard 3 keepers, the coaches will be faced with an interesting "problem" of bringing the talented but inexperienced young dynamo (new Chelsea signing Slonina), yet another keeper who's doing a solid job against some of the tougher competition in Europe but sits more than he plays (Horvath), or an experienced, veteran keeper who may not play the toughest competition, but plays consistently (Johnson)? My guess is the staff will opt for the latter, and quite frankly, they probably should.
CENTER-BACKS
Locks
Walker Zimmerman (Nashville SC)
Strong Contenders
Cameron Carter-Vickers (Celtic)
Aaron Long (New York Red Bulls)
Mark McKenzie (Genk)
Chris Richards (Crystal Palace)
Wild Cards
John Brooks (Benfica)
Erik Palmer-Brown (Troyes)
Tim Ream (Fulham)
Should Make The Squad: Zimmerman, Carter-Vickers, Ream, Richards
WILL Make The Squad: Zimmerman, Long, Carter-Vickers, McKenzie
From one of the three "wide open" positions to another: center-back is a crucial spot on the field at which the U.S. has struggled to find a consistent option. A good chunk of the CB portion of my last squad preview was dedicated to the question of whether Miles Robinson would return to game speed in time for the Cup. The good news is, we have our answer to that question. The bad news is, the answer is No. Robinson never returned to training for Atlanta United before their season's conclusion this weekend, let alone regained pre-injury form.
So the CB search presses on, with the only sure thing being Nashville's Walker Zimmerman. The blonde colossus was one of many players who didn't exactly impress in Europe a couple weeks ago, but he has a tremendous, consistently steadying showing in World Cup Qualifying to buy him a little benefit of the doubt. That same benefit cannot be granted to anyone else in this pool, though, least of all Aaron Long. It sure seems as if Long, who has now started the last 6 U.S. matches, is Berhalter's favored choice to replace Robinson, but not only has he failed to impress in just about all of those matches, his club form isn't exactly stellar at the moment either. Does he provide valuable experience? Sure. Will the manager put him on the plane? Probably. But I can't deem him a lock when it's not immediately clear what he brings to the table.
As for the other suspects, Carter-Vickers, McKenzie, Richards, and Palmer-Brown have all spent time in that spot in big matches over the last many months, and all of them except the latter also played spot minutes the last two matches. None of them could be considered a lock, but all are real contenders to make the final team, given their experience both with the U.S. senior team and in some of the toughest leagues in the World. And of course we can't talk about the CB pool without addressing the elephant in the room: the fact that the U.S. seemingly has two slam dunk candidates in John Brooks and Tim Ream, two veterans who have logged years in the World's most competitive leagues, but whether it's attitude issues, a couple bum performances last summer, not fitting the manager's 'system,' or some combination of the above, they have not appeared in the last several windows for the USMNT. If things are dire enough, and/or they work out whatever beef might exist between them and the coaching staff, either or both of these guys could be prime candidates to fill depth. But I'm going to work on the assumption that those guys won't magically be back on Berhalter's good graces nor will Robinson be back in time, and expect the manager will opt for a mixture of MLS synergy, experience, and young talent.
FULLBACKS
Locks
Sergiño Dest (AC Milan)
Antonee Robinson (Fulham)
DeAndre Yedlin (Inter Miami)
Strong Contenders
Reggie Cannon (Boavista)
Joe Scally (Borussia Mönchengladbach)
Sam Vines (Antwerp)
Wild Cards
George Bello (Arminia Bielefeld)
Shaq Moore (Tenerife)
Should Make The Squad: Dest, Robinson, Scally, Yedlin
WILL Make The Squad: Dest, Robinson, Yedlin, Cannon
One thing that this international window likely did not change was the pecking order for fullback. Fulham star Antonee "Jedi" Robinson had to miss this window due to a knock, but assuming full health, he and Dest have fully locked down starting roles on either side of the pitch. The only potential drama at this position would be whether one of the young upstarts might be able to pip a veteran in the depth spots. Joe Scally and Sam Vines have seen limited senior minutes for the U.S., but have been taking the German and Belgian leagues by storm over the least year and a half. Both were called up for and saw some playing time this window; but, while neither was calamitous, were either good enough to unseat the likes of Yedlin and Cannon, who have been such consistent (and for the most part, solid) options for Berhalter over the last few years? As much as I would love to see one of the young'uns get a camp call....I'm skeptical
CENTRAL/DEFENSIVE MIDFIELDERS
Locks
Kellyn Acosta (Los Angeles FC)
Tyler Adams (Leeds United)
Weston McKennie (Juventus)
Strong Contenders
Cristian Roldan (Seattle Sounders)
James Sands (Rangers)
Wild Cards
Gianluca Busio (Venezia)
Johnny Cardoso (Internacional)
Sebastian Lletget (New England Revolution)
Should Make The Squad: Adams, McKennie, Acosta, Sands
WILL Make The Squad: Adams, McKennie, Acosta, Roldan
Okay, actually, this was probably the position least affected by the last window, and the chief reason is that there may not be open spots up for grabs. I can't imagine Berhalter bringing more than 3-5 central midfielders, and barring injury, Acosta, Adams and McKennie's spots are good as gold. Should the coaches venture out beyond those three, though, it gets more interesting. One intriguing development from this latest window was the introduction of Brazilian-American Johnny Cardoso (full name João Lucas de Souza Cardoso), who officially opted to rep the United States in 2020. Cardoso did secure a couple caps two years ago, shortly after that announcement, but since then, had not seen a call-up to the U.S., instead plying his trade in the Brazilian league. It very well be too little too late, but his inclusion in the last pre-World Cup squad over the likes of Cristian Roldan-- who had been a stalwart favorite of Berhalter's --and James Sands-- who was coming off a deep run in Europe with Glasgow Rangers, and whose versatility sees him playing at CM, DM, and even CB --certainly raises some eyebrows.
Honestly, from those options (and to say nothing of the young Busio and veteran Lletget, both of whom had been such frequent contributors in 2021), it's hard to go wrong with any of those three. Especially when you're likely assessing a fourth-choice option, a veteran who does everything well, a reliable and versatile player, and a dynamic young talent all provide solid opportunities. I personally would prioritize Sands' versatility, especially given the small crisis at CB, but expect in the absence of a clear answer Berhalter will revert to his favorite, the easily likable Roldan.
CREATIVE/ATTACKING MIDFIELDERS
Locks
Luca de la Torre (Celta Vigo)
Yunus Musah (Valencia)
Strong Contenders
Malik Tillman (Rangers)
Wild Cards
Djordje Mihailovic (CF Montreal)
Should Make The Squad: Musah, de la Torre, Tillman
WILL Make The Squad: Musah, de la Torre, Tillman
The U.S. probably has the least amount of proven depth at attacking midfielder, specifically, but that narrow, inexperienced pool might be coming more into shape after this most recent window. Last time out, I remarked about Luca de la Torre being a late-blooming serious contender to make the World Cup in this role. Now, after a Summer move to La Liga with Celta Vigo, and this most recent window which saw him start both matches in place of the injured Yunus Musah, I'm ready to call him a lock. Barring something major, he will be on the plane to Qatar, likely to be the first substitute for either Musah or McKennie.
Soon-to-be-former MLS dynamo (he's secured a transfer to the Dutch Eredivisie with AZ Alkmaar once CF Montreal's season ends) Djordje Mihailovic is back from injury, and continues to impress domestically. But given that he was not called up in any window in 2022, it's hard to see him scoring a shock call-up to Qatar. That leaves, really, only one other potential attacking midfield prospect, and it's the new kid on the scene, Bayern Munich loanee Malik Tillman. Tillman secured a loan to Rangers, and promptly opened his account there with goals in three consecutive matches, including a match-winner that booked the Scottish champions' place in the Champions League group stages. He's become a regular starter for Rangers, and also featured in both U.S. matches from the last window, and that makes me think he's a decent bet to make the final squad, which would excite me. The only reason I hedge a little is because he didn't exactly light the world on fire in either cameo, and was such a late arriver on the scene....but hopefully Gregg knows what's best for him.
WINGERS
Locks
Brendon Aaronson (Leeds United)
Christian Pulisic (Chelsea)
Giovanni Reyna (Borussia Dortmund)
Timothy Weah, Jr. (Lille)
Strong Contenders
Paul Arriola (FC Dallas)
Jordan Morris (Seattle Sounders)
Wild Cards
Matthew Hoppe (Middlesbrough)
Should Make The Squad: Aaronson, Arriola, Pulisic, Reyna, Weah
WILL Make The Squad: Aaronson, Arriola, Pulisic, Reyna, Weah, Morris
Even though the attacking play for the U.S. across the last two matches was an enormous bummer, I actually view the winger position as a win on the whole. Here's my logic: yes, Timothy Weah was out injured. Yes, Brendan Aaronson was a bit rough in both matches. However, the two breakout stars of the World Cup Qualifying cycle have proven their worth for the U.S. time and time again, and are also lighting it up at the club level. They'll be fine. For me, the bigger questions revolved around the form of Christian Pulisic and Gio Reyna. The two young stars are likely America's most talented players, but both came into this last window looking to answer some questions. In Reyna's case, it was a return to the USMNT from nearly an entire calendar year of injury-related absences, and in Pulisic's case, it was amidst a fairly public grievance regarding his infinitesimal playing time at Chelsea. Though I can't say either put on a dominant display (and in fact both picked up minor injuries again, which is a little concern), they did look very much like their old selves, being the USMNT's unequivocal best outfield players against Japan and Saudi Arabia, respectively.
So those 4 wingers are set in stone. Will the coaches bring any others besides them? If they do, given the minimal inroads Matthew Hoppe, young goalscoring phenom of yesteryear, has made at his new clubs, it will likely be one or both of two oft-called-upon MLS wingers, Paul Arriola and Jordan Morris. If I had to guess, Berhalter will likely find room for both, and make a cut elsewhere. But-- and I say this knowing it will make my Seattle contingent sad --I just don't know that I see room for both, and based on what we've seen in this Cup cycle, Morris is definitely the inferior option of the two.
STRIKERS/CENTER-FORWARDS
Locks
None
Strong Contenders
Jesús Ferreira (FC Dallas)
Ricardo Pepi (FC Groningen)
Jordan Pefok (Union Berlin)
Josh Sargent (Norwich City)
Wild Cards
Jeremy Ebobisse (San Jose Earthquakes)
Brandon Vazquez (FC Cincinnati)
Haji Wright (Antalyaspor)
Should Make The Squad: Ferreira, Pefok, Sargent, Wright
WILL Make The Squad: Ferreira, Pepi, Sargent
Saving the best for last! ... he says, tongue planted firmly in cheek.
Of all the various disappointing aspects of the U.S.'s last international window, chief among them was the striker position. It got off to a bad start with the baffling choice on the part of Berhalter to not call up then-leading scorer in the Bundesliga, Jordan Pefok. It wasn't just that Pefok was carving up the German league at the time, though that should be enough of a reason in itself; he was doing it with his new club, the current Bundesliga leaders, after multiple seasons of banging in nonstop goals in the Swiss league with Young Boys. And it's not like he's a stranger to the United States either; he earned call-ups throughout both Nations League and World Cup Qualifying play, scoring the game-winner in the Nations League semifinal vs. Honduras. But what was perhaps most frustrating about the Pefok snub was that this window felt like a real chance for someone, or someones, to reach out and grab pole position in a race that has been confounding and frustrating for U.S. fans.
Jesús Ferreira has seemingly been the frontrunner to start for some time, earning far more starts at striker for the USMNT than anyone else in the year 2022, and his call-up to this camp and start in the very first match did little to disprove that fact. However, given he was an absolute no-show against Japan, and didn't play in the following match, I still don't feel like I can officially call him a lock, even though I would be seriously surprised if he didn't make the final team. Josh Sargent was a welcome return to the pitch after over a year in the USMNT wilderness; but the dynamic forward, who has rediscovered his form and then some at Norwich City, only got limited game time and did very little with said game time. The same could be said of Ricardo Pepi, who was the chief target of most of the pro-Pefok vitriol online; though he has since found his scoring boots during a loan spell at Groningen, coming into the last camp he had failed to score for club or country since October 2021.
Berhalter urged fans and media pundits to not read too much into the Pefok snub, explaining that this last call-up was not to give them a preview of the World Cup squad, but rather to get one more chance to see players they needed "to gather more information about." But I don't know if I trust he's telling the truth on this one... Pefok may be a known quantity as a player, but it's not like he's locked down the starting 9 role for the U.S., and to not even call up a player in the last camp before the World Cup who isn't a secured starter and/or suffering from some injury speaks volumes to me. It pains me to say it, but I really think the D.C.-born goal-belter will be left at home, and that Gregg and co. will opt for the more familiar faces of FC Dallas products Pepi and Ferreria, as well as the resurgent Sargent.
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