Re-Seeding The Sweet 16
Saint Peter's has a chance to completely redefine the concept of a 'Cinderella run.'
I wrote this piece for the first time in 2018, and boldly proclaimed the early stages of that tournament-- which featured the first-ever '16 over 1' upset --the wildest in history, which seemed fitting given the general season-long madness that year in basketball was. Four years on, March has not gotten any less mad. This tournament might be even more chaotic than that one was, the lack of a UMBC-type win notwithstanding, and the regular season it's following has certainly been more chaotic.
Unlike last year, there hasn't been a clear-cut #1 team for most of this season, really just loose, vague tiers of quality teams across the country, a group considerably less defined than the top teams of last year. Fittingly, this tournament has seen a medley of some clear top teams establishing themselves, but also plenty of lower-seeded teams proving the distance between them is not that great.
Last year, a dizzying 9 of the top 16 seeds didn't even progress to the second weekend. This time around, only 6 of the Top 16 didn't survive the first weekend, but to use that as the sole barometer of madness would be missing out on some huge storylines. Case in point, here's a streamlined recap of what happened in the first two rounds of action:
Notre Dame and Rutgers played a double-overtime thriller in one of the play-in games, won by the Fighting Irish on a buzzer beater
15th-seeded Saint Peter's stunned Final Four favorites Kentucky, marking the second straight tournament with a '15 over 2' upset
Seven double-digit seeds (25% of the field) scored upset wins in the 1st round
Defending champions Baylor fought back from a 25-point deficit in the 2nd round to force overtime, only to then lose in overtime to North Carolina, making this the seventh consecutive tournament where the reigning national champions will not feature in the Sweet 16
Saint Peter's won AGAIN, becoming just the third 15-seed in history to reach the Sweet 16
10-seed Miami and 11-seeds Iowa State and Michigan knocked off the SEC and Big Ten regular season champions and the SEC tournament champion in the 2nd round, setting up a seventh consecutive tournament with multiple double-digit seeds in the Sweet 16
The three 1-seeds not named Baylor all won in the 2nd round, but barely; all three teams were tied and/or trailing their 9th-seeded opponent within the last 2 minutes of regulation
So yes, the tournament very much hangs in the balance at this point. There's a chance that despite all the previous chaos, we could still in fact see a pretty chalk Final Four. Orrrrr the madness could continue, and we could see a Final Four sans any 1 or 2 seeds. Who knows?
Anyways, with the Sweet 16 kicking off tonight, here's an attempt at re-seeding all 16 teams, in part based on the teams' quality coming into the tournament, but in equal part as if their seasons transpired entirely in March:
1-SEEDS: "Very Good Teams Playing Like Very Good Teams"
Villanova (2)
Villanova was a trendy pick by many to bow out in the first weekend, thanks to a bracket that paired them with a tough Ohio State side and annual bracketbusters Loyola-Chicago. Instead, Villanova have been the only one of the Top 8 seeds to really look the part. After a bit of a slow start against Delaware in the opener, the Wildcats coasted to victory, then followed that up with a win over a good Ohio State team that was never really in doubt. It seems people are still sleeping on just how good this Villanova team is playing at the moment, which is probably just how they like it.
Houston (5)
Houston's players and fans alike felt their team was under-seeded by the selection committee. So far, the team's play is justifying their gripes. The Cougars followed their dominant 1st round win over UAB with an equally dominant win over Big Ten regular-season champions Illinois in front of an unfriendly crowd in Pittsburgh. They'll have their hands full with their next opponents Arizona, but perhaps it's the 1-seed who should be more worried about playing this team.
Purdue (3)
Purdue has been an enigma all season along, a team with elite talent that sometimes looked the part, and many other times, inexplicably did not. Two games into this tournament, we've clearly gotten 'Good Purdue' thus far. Ivy League winners often prove to be difficult outs in the opening rounds, but that wasn't the case for Purdue, who manhandled Yale from start to finish. Next up was a good Texas team who fought off ACC champions Virginia Tech in a game many had projected they would lose, and though the Longhorns made a game of it late, the Boilermakers were clearly the better side throughout. Purdue might finally putting all the pieces together at the right time.
Kansas ([1], 3rd overall)
As mentioned above, not a single one of the 1-seeds escaped the first weekend without a big scare (and one didn't escape at all). That said, Kansas was the only one of the 1-seeds to really look like a 1-seed for the majority of their time in the tournament thus far. Creighton hung around with the Jayhawks until the very end of their 2nd-round game, but the truth is Kansas never trailed in the 2nd half. Couple that with their wire-to-wire brilliance in the first round, and it's not a bold claim to argue Kansas has the most to feel good about of any 1-seed in this tournament.
2-SEEDS: "Very Good Teams Not Playing Like It"
Duke (2)
Much has been made, to put it mildly, of this season being Coach K's farewell season, and one constant question has been whether his team will give him the ultimate fairytale sendoff by winning the national title. Duke's looked capable of doing it at times this season, but truthfully, not for quite some time. Their tournament play thus far has epitomized that, getting an almighty scare in front of a virtual home crowd from a Michigan State team that, quite frankly, was probably way overseeded at 7. Still, the fact that the Blue Devils dispatched an experienced Cal St Fullerton team with ease in the first round, then ground out a come-from-behind victory in the next round perhaps speaks to them showing signs of the mental maturity and strength they've lacked throughout this season.
Texas Tech (3)
If Duke isn't going to win it all, many are saying it will be because of their next opponent, scrappy Texas Tech. But the Red Raiders have followed a pretty similar tournament trajectory to their next opponents. After completely bumrushing their first-round opponents Montana State (notching the tournament's largest margin of victory in the process), they came dangerously close to an early exit the following round. But, with some of their token toughness-- and, let's be honest, some favorable calls from the zebras --Texas Tech pushed by Notre Dame into their 3rd Sweet 16 berth in 4 years. They'll go further if they play like they played in the first round; they won't if they play like they played in 38 of the 40 minutes last time out.
Arizona ([1], 2nd overall)
With less than 8 minutes in regulation, I was ready to proclaim Arizona the best team left in the tournament. The 2nd overall seed had trounced their opponents in the first round, and had just begun pulling away from a plucky TCU team in the second round. Then, a switch flipped for their opponents, and a 12-0 run turned the game on its head. Arizona seemed shellshocked by the sudden turn in events, and came incredibly close (agonizingly close, if you're a TCU fan) to losing the game in regulation, and might have done so had the officials called a foul on their physical halfcourt trap as the clock wound down, To be fair, they also came agonizingly close to winning in regulation, but Dalen Terry held on to the ball for 0.3 seconds too long. The Wildcats were able to regroup and close out the game in overtime, but it was the warning shot to end all warning shots fired their way. Given how well TCU played, I honestly chalk their close call up more to the form of their opponent than their own play, but if they don't avoid lapses like that from here on out, they are in danger of going home much sooner than they would like.
Gonzaga ([1, 1st overall)
Gonzaga's third consecutive tournament as 1-seed, and second consecutive as the #1 overall seed, has gotten off to a much choppier start than they would have thought or hoped. The Zags eventually woke up and got their ship in order, but they let 16-seed Georgia State hang around for an awfully long time; that game was tied at the under-12 timeout. Despite that, the Zags still came out remarkably flat against a talented Memphis team in the 2nd round. A mammoth effort by All-American Drew Timme in the second half helped Gonzaga avoid an early exit, but the Zags, like Arizona, came perilously close to Baylor's fate, and will need to be considerably better as the going gets tougher.
3-SEEDS: "Impressive Overacheivers"
North Carolina (8)
I say this as a North Carolina fan: I have no idea where this team has come from. The Tar Heels have given new meaning to 'peaking at the right time,' kicking off the month of March with a famous blowout victory at Duke, and continuing that torrid form into the tournament. They shot the lights out in the first round against Marquette, notching a margin-of-victory tournament record for an 8 v. 9 matchup. Then, amazingly, they almost did the same thing to their next opponents, who just happened to be 1-seed, defending national champions Baylor. At the 9 minute mark of their game, Carolina was up 67-42, and cruising to a famous victory. Then came the controversial ejection of Brady Manek, and after a comedy of errors by the young team and some additional egregious officiating by a, frankly, shady crew of refs, they suddenly had squandered the entirety of that massive lead and were headed to overtime. Yet, even down two key bench players due to suspension, and down two star starters due to foul trouble, and with all the momentum against them in front of a hostile crowd, the Heels were able to tough out an overtime victory to secure their spot in the Sweet 16. From here, it's a question of which Carolina team shows up, which is the same question people have been asking all season: if the team that played the last 9 minutes of regulation last round comes back, they're in real trouble. The team that played the 70 minutes of game time prior to that, however, can legitimately hang with anyone.
Michigan (11)
After their less-than-remarkable finish to the season-- losing 4 of their last 7, finishing 17-14 and 8th place in the Big Ten, and having their coach unceremoniously suspended for the regular season due to a postgame slap --many thought Michigan didn't even deserve to be in the tournament, let alone skip the play-in games. Well, thus far, Michigan are once again wholly silencing the skeptics. Playing probably the weakest 6-seed with a favorable crowd in Indianapolis was a nice draw for them, to be fair, but that doesn't make their commanding win over Colorado State unimpressive. Nor did it mean we should have expected what happened next, which was a thorough, deserved win over Tennessee, one of the nation's best (and certainly its hottest) teams. These Wolverines will once again be underdogs in the next round against Villanova, but at this point, would you count them out?
Miami (10)
Despite finishing in the Top 4 in the ACC and owning big wins over both Duke and North Carolina, Miami came into the tournament fairly under-the-radar. Safe to say they've lost that status now, thanks to a stellar start to their tournament. Miami outplayed favored USC for most of their first-round matchup, but nearly choked away the 7-point lead they had built with 40 seconds left, only to seal the game at the free throw line with a mere 3 seconds remaining. Their 2nd round game, however, was not just an upset victory, it was a surprisingly dominant victory over an Auburn team that spent much of the regular season ranked #1, completely taking star big man Walker Kessler out of the game. Based strictly on the talent on the court, Miami has a legitimate claim to having the most impressive two wins thus far, given the studs they had to play on both Auburn and USC. They will undoubtedly be a tough out from this point forward.
Saint Peter's (15)
Here are some facts that speak to the increase of parity in college basketball: in the first 25 years of the expanded tournament, a 15-seed had beaten a 2-seed just 3 times ever. In the last decade alone, the feat has happened 6 times. This time ten years ago, no 15-seed had ever made it past the 2nd round. Now, it's happened 3 times, including 2 years in a row.
I don't know if this Saint Peter's side is as good a team as 2013 Florida Gulf Coast or 2021 Oral Roberts-- two teams that really probably shouldn't have been a 15-seed --were, but they certainly have an argument for the most impressive route to a Sweet 16 ever. In Kentucky and Murray State, they played two opponents that had massive homecourt advantage in Indianapolis. The latter was a team that was probably underseeded at 7, given the impressive 30-2 season they had, and the former legitimately had as high a ceiling as anyone in the tournament (and was the #1 Final Four pick out of the East Regional). So, three cheers for the Peacocks! Purdue is likely licking their chops that they get to face such a low-seeded opponent in the Sweet 16, but they should be confident at their own peril; some day, some time, a 15-seed is going to reach the Elite Eight, and I see no reason why it shouldn't be Saint Peter's.
4-SEEDS: "Decent Teams Playing Just Kinda...Decent"
UCLA (4)
UCLA was an attractive Final 4 pick for many after reaching those heights last season, despite this season not being quite as successful as expected. Yet, they came dangerously close to exiting in the first round, needing a late 15-4 run just to win narrowly over Akron. Fortunately for Bruin fans, they looked much more like the team that's capable of making a deep run in their 2nd round game, completely thwarting 5th-seeded Saint Mary's to book a return to the Sweet 16. The obvious question now is which version of UCLA will show up in Philadelphia against North Carolina, easily the most talented team they will have played in the tournament?
Providence (4)
Despite a good record and Big East regular season title, many slept on Providence coming into this tournament, likely in no small part because of their sputtering finish to the season. But, in a matchup that was likely the most-picked upset among college basketball fans, Providence survived a late push from 13-seed South Dakota State in the 1st round, to set up a date with 12-seed Richmond, fresh off an upset of Big Ten champions Iowa. They did not waste the opportunity, smashing the Spiders to book their first Sweet 16 berth in 25 years. The relatively weak competition thus far makes it difficult to tell just how for real these Friars are, but I can guarantee Kansas is not particularly excited about playing them this weekend, considering the alternatives.
Iowa State (11)
Iowa State are in the Sweet 16 despite averaging 56 points a game. That has to be some sort of record in the modern era. No, but in all seriousness, especially for a team that won 2 (Two! TWO!!!) games last season, the Cyclones' tough play and suffocating defense have been remarkably impressive thus far. It's one thing to close out a win over an overrated LSU team without a head coach in the first round. It's another thing to do the same thing two days later against a balanced, experienced Wisconsin team in the middle of Milwuakee. I'm not sure a 3rd consecutive poor offensive outing will be enough to get them past Miami, but honestly, the way the Cyclones have found a way to win thus far, who knows?
Arkansas (4)
The good news: Arkansas is in the Sweet 16 for the 2nd straight season! The less-good news: for the 2nd straight year, they've arguably been the least impressive team still in the tournament through the first two rounds. I don't know what it is that caused Eric Musselman's Arkansas side to be so much less impressive in the tournament than in the regular season, but it's a trend now. Last year, the Hogs got to the Elite Eight on the back of facing a 14-seed, 11-seed, and 15-seed, but struggled mightily with each before being blown out by eventual champions Baylor. This year, they've reached the Sweet 16 by playing 13-seeded Vermont and 12-seeded New Mexico State, and struggling mightily with both (they trailed very late in both games). But hey, they've found a way to win, which is the most important thing. Can they beat Gonzaga? It's certainly possible. Will they, if they play like they did in Rounds 1 or 2? Not a chance.
Updated Final Four Picks:
West: (2) Duke
East: (3) Purdue
South: (5) Houston
Midwest: (1) Kansas
Comments