Re-Seeding The Sweet 16
For just the second time in history, a 15-seed has reached the Sweet 16
The very first time I wrote this piece, back in 2018, I boldly proclaimed the early stages of that tournament the wildest in history. And to be fair, the first-ever 16-over-1 upset in the NCAA tournament is a benchmark from that year that is hard for any following tournament to top. But as the 2021 edition of March Madness enters the Sweet 16, I am ready to replicate that bold assertion: the early stages of this tournament are the wildest in history.
Let's go over some of the highlights from a crazy first five days in Indianapolis:
All four play-in games are decided in the final minute, some in the final seconds, with one going to overtime
The final seconds/OT game streak continues into Day 1 of the 64-team field, with 4 more games following suit
In one of the first several games of the tournament, 15th-seeded Oral Roberts stuns #2 Ohio State
13th-seeded Ohio stuns defending champions Virginia
Ten double-digit teams win in the first round, the highest mark in history
A string of positive COVID cases at Virginia Commonwealth results in the first-ever "No Contest"
3-seeds Arkansas and Kansas win, but not before trailing their 14th-seeded opponents by double digits late in the 1st half
#1 seed and 2nd-most predicted national champion Illinois falls in the Round of 32, in a wire-to-wire to fellow Illinoisans (and 2018 Final Four participants) Loyola-Chicago
Oral Roberts, Syracuse, Houston, and Arkansas all survive buzzer-beater attempts to survive and advance to the Sweet 16
Iowa, Illinois, Kansas and Oklahoma State are all not only upset, but are upset by an average margin of 18 points
All in all, just 7 of the top 16 overall seeds make it past the first two rounds of play, while a record-setting four teams seeded 11th or lower feature in the Sweet 16
All of this craziness is a sweet, refreshing return to the greatest postseason in sports, and it feels particularly meaningful that it's playing out in such an entertaining way for the neutral observer just one year before it became the first major sporting event to be cancelled by COVID-19. Taking into account, too, that the last tournament we had in 2019 was decidedly more chalk than the norm, with all but four of the Top 16 seeds reaching this stage...well, it feels like an eternity since March Madness has lived up to its name.
Anyways, with the Sweet 16 kicking off tomorrow, here's an attempt at re-seeding all 16 teams, not just based on the teams' quality coming into the tournament, but also as if their seasons transpired entirely in March:
1-SEEDS
Gonzaga ([1], 1st overall)
Not many teams in this tournament can say this, but Gonzaga has looked every bit as good as advertised thus far. After hardly breaking a sweat in the first round, they kept a sharpshooting and well-coached Oklahoma team at arm's length for essentially the entire game. They came into the tournament as the team to beat, and there's no question they remain that team.
Baylor ([1], 2nd overall)
This tournament has seen a whole lot of the unexpected, but the top two overall seeds have played like the two best teams in the country. That much has stayed true. Baylor got off to a bit of a clunky start in the first round against Hartford, but since halftime of that Round of 64 match, they have looked every bit the team they were prior to their last COVID break. Their comprehensive 2nd round victory over a senior-laden Wisconsin team that had just blown out North Carolina was a serious warning shot to the rest of the field.
Alabama (2)
Losing one of the 1 seeds before the Sweet 16 meant that the door would open for at least one of the lower-rated teams to slide up a seed line. Alabama is the beneficiary in this case. In the Round of 64, the Crimson Tide were played close by Rick Pitino and 15th-seeded Iona in the 1st half, but ran away with it in the 2nd. In the next round, they put on a shooting clinic against Big Ten foes Maryland. It was the type of performance that most teams could call an aberration, but for this Alabama team, it was a return to business of usual, which is bad news for everyone else in this tournament.
Michigan ([1], 3rd overall)
The bad news for Michigan is that one of the few teams that have looked more impressive than them is in their own regional. The good news is, only a few teams have looked more impressive than them! And for a team that somewhat sputtered down the stretch, and lost key player Isaiah Livers to injury, that is significant. The Wolverines don't have quite the same level of blowouts as the top two teams do, but have looked every bit the part of a 1 seed in a dominant opening round victory, and then an ultimately comfortable win over a tough, tough LSU team.
2-SEEDS
Loyola-Chicago (8)
It's no fluke, it's no gimmick. You might be sick of the Sister Jean hype, and I understand being a little anxious about Loyola's ability to handle being a frontrunner for the first time. But regardless of seeding, of program prestige, the Ramblers have legitimately looked like one of the best teams in the tournament through two rounds. They had an awfully slow start against a Georgia Tech side that was missing its best player, but three consecutive dominant halves against the ACC and Big Ten champions, the latter of them being a trendy national champion pick in Illinois, is tough to top.
Florida State (4)
Florida State has been a bit of an enigmatic team all season, and as has often been the case in recent years under Leonard Hamilton, trying to figure out which Seminoles team was going to show up in the tournament was a difficult guessing game. But so far, they have looked the part of high-ceiling contender. They got a tough fight from UNC-Greensboro in the 1st round, but the Fighting Wes Millers' were one of the more dangerous double-digit seeds in the tournament (in fact, I picked the upset in that matchup) and finishing them off was a sign of maturity from this experienced squad. They followed that up with a thorough domination of the Pac-12's highest-seeded team, handing that conference their first-- and still only --tournament loss.
USC (6)
Speaking of the Pac-12, USC is just one of several West Coast teams that have thrilled and impressed thus far. The Trojans took care of business in the 1st round, dismissing play-in winners Drake rather easily, but really announced themselves on Monday night with their absolute dismantling of Kansas. Time will tell whether that eye-popping scoreline was flukish. but it'd be wise to not bet against Evan Mobley and USC at the moment.
Oregon (7)
Beaten: #2 Iowa by 15
It was a tough call on which overachieving Pac-12 team to rank higher; ultimately, I gave USC the edge on larger sample size. Oregon's first-round game made history as it was the 1st ever-- and still sole --tournament game to be called off due to positive COVID-19 exposures, giving the Ducks a bye to the 2nd round. But lest you were concerned they would look rusty with the lack of game experience, Oregon showed quite the opposite in their steady domination of #2 Iowa, a darkhorse title contender featuring likely Wooden Award winner Luka Garza. The all Pac-12 affair between them and USC is going to be can't-miss basketball
3-SEEDS
Villanova (5)
Let's be honest, Villanova hasn't exactly faced murderers' row. Winning games over Winthrop and North Texas won't turn many heads. But many people, myself included, pegged 'Nova for an unceremoniously early exit, as they have looked like a shell of themselves since the loss of star player Colin Gillespie to injury. Instead, the Wildcats gritted out a tough opening-round win against a tricky 12-seed, and then blew the doors off Cinderella team North Texas, raising hopes that they may just be able to compete with Baylor after all.
Arkansas (3)
Usually you can get at least a decent sense of a team's tournament durability through a couple rounds of play, but not in this case. Arkansas has been a very spastic team thus far. With just a few minutes remaining in the 1st half of their 1st round game, they were trailing 14th-seeded Colgate by 14. Out of nowhere, they unleashed a 17-0 run to end the half in front, and never looked back. In their next matchup, against defending runners-up, something close to the opposite happened; a close game they had started to take over in the 2nd half suddenly came down to the final seconds, and they were within inches (multiple times) of blowing the game to Texas Tech. Still, while the unpredictability likely makes Hogs fans everywhere a little anxious, it also speaks to just how good they can be when they need to be. We'll see which Razorbacks team wins out.
Houston (2)
Houston is the only team in this article to be rated lower than their actual seed. That may seem harsh on the Cougars, who fared better against their underdog opponent in the 1st round than most every team, and then dug deep to rally for a clutch win in the Round of 32. But the fact of the matter is, Houston's regional set up perfectly for them to have an easy walk to the Sweet 16, perhaps beyond, and they still almost blew it. And in truth, their comeback against Rutgers was as much about piss-poor play from the latter as anything else. They still have a ton of quality, though, so this is by no means a statement on Houston's potential to make a run in the tournament.
Syracuse (11)
For all the hype Tom Izzo gets as being "Mr. March," it's crazy how often Jim Boeheim is able to have his mediocre, barely-made-it Syracuse team make a run in the tournament. Here we are again, watching 11th-seeded Cuse reach the Sweet 16 mere weeks after being on the "wrong side of the bubble." The Orange have done it behind blistering 3-point shooting from the coach's son Buddy and fellow sharpshooter Joe Girard III, as well as their trademark zone defense. We'll see if the Cinderella run can continue against Houston, who represents a step up in toughness from San Diego State and West Virginia, but that's a lethal combination for anyone to face.
4-SEEDS
UCLA (11)
Continuing the theme of surprising Pac-12 success, UCLA has gone from one of the last teams in the tournament to one of the 16 remaining. In fairness, more so than their fellow 11-seed Syracuse, UCLA's path to this point has been a little fortunate. BYU was probably the weakest 6 seed, and Abilene Christian probably the least-gifted Cinderella winner from the 1st round. But the Bruins' control of both those games, fresh off their impressive comeback overtime win against Michigan State in the First Four, speaks to their ability to cause problems for Alabama and perhaps beyond.
Oral Roberts (15)
With two victories by a combined 6 points, Oral Roberts became just the second 15-seed in history to reach this stage of the tournament. Don't let the close margins, goofy school name, or problematic institution fool you; just like Florida Gulf Coast in 2013, that the Eagles reached this stage is no fluke. They play tough, are well-coached, and have two bona fide March Madness stars in Max Abmas and Kevin Obanor. I can't take credit for calling their recent win over Florida, but I did say to multiple friends that "they absolutely could give them a game." So, I'll say it again: I don't think they're going to beat Arkansas, but they could absolutely give them a game. This time, recent precedent agrees with me.
Oregon State (12)
No team encapsulates the magical tournament the Pac-12 is having more than its tournament champion Oregon State. The Beavers were the furthest thing from a tournament team just 2 weeks ago, but caught fire in the Pac-12 tournament and haven't looked back since. Having watched approximately half of both their tournament games, I can't really tell what they do consistently well, but beating Tennessee and Oklahoma State is no joke, let alone by the margins they've won by. In both cases, blazing fast starts to the game were enough to see out the victory; they'll likely need the same recipe to beat newly anointed 2-seed Loyola-Chicago tomorrow.
Creighton (5)
Is Creighton actually the worst team left in the tournament? No. Not in a Sweet 16 field that includes a whopping eight teams seeded below them. But the Jays' run to this point is the least impressive of all. While Villanova and UCLA also reached this point playing largely lower-ranked teams, they had comprehensive victories to hang their hat on. Creighton's win over Ohio was an impressive closeout, but they'll still need to be a whole lot better than that (and MILES better than their objectively lucky opening-round win over UC-Santa Barbara) to give Gonzaga any sort of ballgame this weekend.
Updated Final Four Picks:
Gonzaga (West)
Alabama (East)
Baylor (South)
Loyola-Chicago (Midwest)
Comments